开局之年要防止盲目铺摊子上项目

虽然中央经济工作会议没有像外界预期那样将“管理通胀预期”替换为“抑制通胀压力”,但自金融危机以来。这次中央经济工作会议首次提出“把稳定价格总水平放在更加突出的位置”．凸显出在处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期这三者的关系中,控制物价被置于宏观调控的首要地位。无论是稳物价,还是调结构．民生都是一个重要指向。     

2010年我国经济形势简析

由于受金融危机的冲击,2010我国仍处于经济复苏的重要时期,经历了农产品价格大幅度增长、房地产价格居高不下、进出口和投资恢复性增长等波折之后,当前以及明年的经济任务应该有继续控制通胀预期、房地产的投机性投资和保证经济结构健康稳健地转型、经济复苏的强劲势头。     

基于降价预期的生鲜农产品定价策略研究

顾客的价格感知影响需求。以降价预期刻画顾客对当前价格的感知,针对零售商在维持需求和利润最大化条件下降价两种策略,研究了生鲜农产品的最优定价问题。研究表明,零售商的利润随着价格认同系数增加而增大;顾客对独立产品存在降价预期不会影响零售商的利润,但是对替代品存在降价预期,零售商的利润会下降;零售商若能完全观察到顾客存在降价预期,将抬高初始价格。     

基于高频数据的中国有色金属期货市场量价关系研究

根据Bessembinder和Seguin （1993）的研究成果,将成交量和持仓量分解为可预期部分和非可预期部分,并考虑了正负已实现半方差和成交量、持仓量的不同冲击对期货市场的不同影响,构建了量价关系基础模型、基于成交量和持仓量分解的量价关系模型和量价关系非对称模型,并利用中国铜铝期货高频数据分别对各模型进行实证分析。研究发现,中国有色金属期货市场的价格波动与成交量和成交相对增量均存在正向相关关系,与持仓量和持仓相对增量均存在负向相关关系。预期成交量和非预期成交量均对价格波动有正向影响,但非预期成交量对价格波动的影响更大;预期持仓量和非预期持仓量均对价格波动有负向影响,但非预期持仓量对价格波动的影响更大,即有色金属期货市场的价格波动主要是由代表新信息的非预期成交量和非预期持仓量引起。相比于下偏已实现半方差,成交量和持仓量对上偏已实现半方差有更强的解释力。正的成交量冲击比负的成交量冲击对价格波动的影响更大,持仓量亦是如此。     

价格持续期的非对称对数ACD模型及其应用

通过建立两状态价格持续期的非对称对数ACD模型,刻画价格持续期过程对不同价格状态的不对称依赖关系和对未预期到的短价格持续期冲击与未预期到的长价格持续期冲击的不对称响应过程,并在该模型中引入买卖价差和交易规模变量,检验市场微观结构理论相关假说。模型拟合结果表明,价格上升和价格下降两种状态对价格持续期的影响不同,未预期到的短价格持续期冲击对价格持续期有正面影响,而未预期到的长价格持续期冲击对价格持续期有负面影响;对市场微观结构信息模型的实证分析表明,滞后买卖价差和滞后交易量具有信息含量,它们与价格持续期显著负相关;隐藏交易假说没有得到实证的支持,在选取样本中大规模交易量比中等规模交易量对价格持续期有更加显著的影响。     

居民收入将与GDP同步增长7％

今后五年．我国经济增长预期目标是在明显提高质量和效益的基础上年均增长7％。按2010年价格计算．2015年国内生产总值将超过55万亿元。     

继往开来 玉兔不是“浮云”——全球经济旧格局与新秩序

如果美国经济未来好于预期，造成资金回流，可能对已在高位的新兴市场资产价格和汇价产生冲击，就如同钱塘江水，来时气势汹汹，去时更加危险     

黄金市场的价格变动趋势分析

由于黄金既具有货币属性又具有商品属性,这就决定了黄金价格的因素是多样的和复杂的。从根本上说,影响黄金需求的是价格、消费者平均收入水平、替代品价格、消费者偏好、预期价格等因素;影响黄金供给的根本因素是价格、投入要素的成本、生产技术、价格预期、生产者的数量等。     

带佣金率和保留价的一级和二级价格拍卖

本文通过引入佣金率和保留价,分别讨论了一级和二级价格密封式拍卖,得到以下结论:(1)两种密封式拍卖的均衡报价随佣金率的提高而减少;(2)一级价格密封式拍卖的均衡报价随保留价的增加而增加,而二级价格密封式拍卖的均衡报价随保留价的增加而减少;(3)一级价格密封式拍卖的投标者预期收益与佣金率和保留价均呈反向变动,而二级价格密封式拍卖的投标者预期收益独立于佣金率和保留价;(4)收益等价定理仍然成立;(5)在两种密封式拍卖中,当佣金率增加时,卖方的预期收益减少,拍卖行的预期收益以及卖方和拍卖行的总预期收益可能增加也可能减少;(6)在两种密封式拍卖中,当保留价增加时,卖方的预期收益、拍卖行的预期收益以及卖方和拍卖行的总预期收益可能增加也可能减少;(7)给出了卖方的最优保留价的表达式;(8)把本文的结论与以前相应的研究工作做了比较。     

股指期货推出对我国股票市场趋势及其波动性的影响分析

股指期货是对股票市场整体态势的预期,它集合了影响现货市场的各种因素和对影响因素的预期、现货市场股指价格和成交量、投资者心理和行为等重要信息,连同期货市场交易动向,形成新的价格。股指期货价格是股票指数现货的预期未来价格,它既以现货标的股指为基础,也对现货提供价格指导。因此,股指期货和股票现货市场之间存在天然的不可分割的联系,这种天然的关系决定了股指期货上市将对股票的市场趋势和波动产生重大影响。     

随机模型在零售顾客未来经济价值估计中的应用

零售顾客的经济价值是由购买次数和平均购买金额共同决定的。本文采用NBD模型来拟合购买次数,用gamma-gamma模型来拟合平均购买金额。基于贝叶斯原理,在给定过去购买行为条件下我们可以计算顾客未来购买次数和平均购买金额的期望值,顾客的未来经济价值就是这两个期望值的乘积。本文应用上述随机模型对一家零售企业的顾客积分卡数据进行了实证分析,结果表明该模型不仅可以比较准确地拟合顾客购买次数和购买金额数据,而且可以对顾客未来价值进行较为准确的预测。该模型方法对于零售企业加强顾客分析,提高顾客管理水平有很大的价值。     

Conditional Monte Carlo Gradient Estimation in Economic Design of Control Limits

The economic approach to determining the optimal control limits of control charts requires estimating the gradient of the expected cost function. Simulation is a very general methodology for estimating the expected costs, but for estimating the gradient, straightforward finite difference estimators can be inefficient. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA), also known as conditional Monte Carlo. Numerical results and consequent design insights are obtained in determining the optimal control limits for exponentially weighted moving average and Bayes charts. The results indicate that the SPA gradient estimators can be significantly more efficient than finite difference estimators, and that a simulation approach using these estimators provides a viable alternative to other numerical solution techniques for the economic design problem.     

基于VaR的多阶段金融资产配置模型

本文提出了基于VaR的多阶段金融资产配置模型。进一步以我国经济环境为依托,考虑了未来各种资产收益、工资变动及物价变动的不确定性,对这一模型进行了仿真计算,并与静态模型在最优性上进行了比较,得出了动态模型优于静态模型的结论。在期望财富相同的情况下,基于VaR的多阶段资产配置模型比静态模型的期望损失成本低,承担的风险更小。     

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II

This article compares different strategies for handling low‐ and medium‐level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long‐term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so‐called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.     

Demographic Influences on the OECD Labour Market: Is there a problem? Are there solutions?*

Abstract. This paper is concerned with the possible economic effects of the demographic movements expected to emerge in the OECD area over the next 30 years. It is argued that the labour and product market implications of the changing population size and ageing are not as worrying as conventional wisdom believes, especially if counterbalancing economic policies are implemented. The most negative effect will probably concern a potential productivity slowdown, but ageing might also have some positive side-effects; implying, for example, declining youth unemployment.     

Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.⁽ 1 ⁾ The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.     

Economic and social leader–member exchange relationships and follower performance

This exploratory study investigated the link between economic and social leader–member exchange relationships and follower work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. Instead of viewing exchange relationships between leaders and subordinates on a continuum from low to high quality, we conceptualize social and economic exchange relationships as relationships with different qualities, rather than different levels of quality. Data from 552 followers and 78 leaders supported our two-dimensional model of leader–member exchange relationships. Furthermore, an economic leader–member exchange relationship was negatively related to both work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. As expected, positive relationships were obtained for a social leader–member exchange relationship and work performance and organizational citizenship behavior. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

A MODEL FOR EVALUATING IMPERFECT CONTROL SYSTEMS

A model is developed for evaluating alternative control systems for an ongoing managerial process in terms of expected contribution per unit time under conditions of imperfect information. A variety of process failure distributions and economic characteristics are accepted by the model. An example illustrates the versatility of this approach for comparing alternative systems and for performing sensitivity analysis on process and control system parameters.     

A queuing/management consideration on Japanese production systems

A single-stage lot/cell production under a Poisson arrival and exponential service in a batch is considered. The three economic queuing models of push and pull types are presented, an economic comparison of push versus pull types is considered, and a strategic management/design consideration to the lot production is given. First, the total expected operating cost is given for the three queuing models including the Omote-Kanban type similar to VMI. Second, the push versus pull system is discussed from a view of setup time, inventory or operating cost, and it is ascertained that the three types are alternative. Finally, a strategic management basis for economic traffic, leadtime setting is given, and discussed by the introduction of production matrix on 2-stage design.     

Comparing a new technology with its predecessor—Steel making

This paper examines the physical and economic performance of a major innovation in steel making, the Basic Oxygen Furnace, and compares it with the performance of the traditional, open-hearth process. Evaluations are based on actual records from five American plants, covering three different time periods, and are set against engineering and management expectations as to the innovation's effects. Interviews with managers and technical personnel complemented the statistical findings. The analysis considers: how the attractiveness of the innovation was determined ex ante; the relative accuracy of the expected technological and economic expectations; the interactions of the innovation with the surrounding production system; and the objectives of post-installation technical and managerial adaptations.