Simultaneous estimation of mortality and dispersal rates of an artificially released population

Mark-recapture methods cannot estimate both mortality and dispersal rates of a wild population simultaneously. However, when an artificially cultured population is released into an area, the initial population size and the initial population distribution are usually known. If artificially cultured individuals are released with marks or distinguished from wild individuals or if no wild individual exists in the study area, we can estimate both the mortality and dispersal rates of the artificial population. The numbers of dispersed and dead individuals are estimated from the dispersal rate from the diffusion model and the total decreasing rate estimated from a mark-recapture data. We can estimate both the time-dependent and time-independent dispersal rates from the data. We choose the best fit model that has the smallest value of Akaike's Information Criteria. We also consider ‘concentric circles approximation” of spatial distribution, in which the cumulative and frequency distributions are analytically obtained.     

A marking-and-recapture analysis of the adult population of a phytophagous lady-beetle,Epilachna sparsa orientalis

Summary A marking-and-recapture study of a population of overwintered adults ofEpilachna sparsa orientalis was carried out in a small farm containing potatoes and egg-plants. The experiment involved a single release and five recapture samplings during May–June. The data were analysed byLeslie's re-recapture method. Assumption of randomness of sampling proved to be well satisfied. Survival rate of the overwintered adult population was maintained as high as 90 per cent per week or more until early June, and then it declined rapidly towards the end of June. Initially overwintered adults exclusively lived on potato plants, but half of the population alive in mid June migrated to nearby egg-plants. Emigration out of the experimental field, however, seemed not to be occurring. Recapture data of marked individuals in the potato field indicate that majority of the individuals stayed within a radius of 3 m, at least for 2 weeks. Similar data taken from another field also suggest that their mobility was far restricted as compared with random movement within the field. Some comparisons were made between the population behaviours of overwintered adults ofE. sparsa orientalis andE. vigintioctomaculata. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University, No. 371.     

Application of a marking-and-recapture method for the analysis of larval-adult populations of an insect,Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

Summary Difficulty arises in applying marking-and-recapture methods to insects when the probability of recapture of marked individuals is changed with advancing age, either due to detachment of the mark by moulting (in the case of larvae) or to changes in their survival rate or their behaviour. A modification of the re-recapture method (Leslie et al., 1953) has been devised to analyze the capture-recapture data of the 5th-instar larvae and adults ofNezara viridula L. Estimation of the rate of moulting to the adult stage is made with the aid of additional information on larval survival. Migration rates of the larvae between the two halves of the census field is estimated byIwao's (1963) method. Through these analyses, the dynamic feature of the population during transition from the 5th instar to, adult is revealed. Several problems involved in the application of marking-and-recapture methods to insect populations are discussed. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University No. 392.     

One-host one-parasitoid system: Population dynamics of a zygaenid mothPryeria sinica Moore in an undisturbed habitat

Summary The population dynamics ofPryeria sinica was investigated in an undisturbed area in 1976–1979. We analyzed the process stabilizing the local population by the life table approach for immature stages and the mark-recapture method for the adult stage. Females usually layed about 130 eggs in an egg-mass. The shape of the survivorship curve was convex and was characterized by a relatively low mortality in the egg and larval stages and by a relatively high mortality in the prepupal and pupal stages. The low mortality in the early stage seemed to be not only due to the peculiar life cycle of this species (larvae develop in early spring when natural enemies are not active) but due to their protective nest-webs, larval warning coloration and repellent smell. The high mortality after cocooning was caused by severe parasitization byAgrothereutes minousubae. The number of adult in the population varied by 2.10-fold, which was less than that of other gregarious moths. The life table data and field observations suggest that adult female dispersal would have acted as a stabilizing factor, andA. minousubae as a conditioning factor on the dynamics of the moth population.     

Evaluation of statistical precision and design of efficient sampling for the population estimation based on frequency of occurrence

Summary The binomial sampling to estimate population density of an organism based simply upon the frequency of its occurrence among sampled quadrats is a labour-saving technique which is potentially useful for small animals like insects and has actually been applied occasionally to studies of their populations. The present study provides a theoretical basis for this convenient technique, which makes it statistically reliable and tolerable for consistent use in intensive as well as preliminary population censuses. Firs, the magnitude of sampling error in relation to sample size is formulated mathematically for the estimate to be obtained by this indirect method of census, using either of the two popular models relating frequency of occurrence (p) to mean density (m), i.e. the negative binomial model,p=1−(1+m/k) ^−k, and the empirical model,p=1−exp(−am ^b). Then, the equations to calculate sample size and census cost that are necessary to attain a given desired level of precision in the estimation are derived for both models. A notable feature of the relationship of necessary sample size (or census cost) to mean density in the frequency method, in constrast to that in the ordinary census, is that it shows a concave curve which tends to rise sharply not only towards lower but also towards higher levels of density. These theoretical results make it also possible to design sequential estimation procedures based on this convenient census technique, which may enable us with the least necessary cost to get a series of population estimates with the desired precision level. Examples are presented to explain how to apply these programs to acutal censuses in the field.     

Further improvements to a method for analysing stage-frequency data

Summary An iterative procedure for correcting stage-frequency data is described to allow for situations where the period during which a population is sampled begins after some individuals have entered stage 2 or ends before all individuals are dead. The reason for correcting data in this way is to enableKiritani andNakasuji's method for estimating stage-specific survival rates, with extensions proposed byManly (1976, 1977), to be used to analyse the data. The proposed procedure is illustrated on data obtained by sampling a population of the grasshopperChorthippus brunneus passing through four instar stages to reach the adult stage.     

Studies on the spatial distribution pattern of larvae of the mosquito,Anopheles sinensis, in rice fields

Summary The spatial distribution patterns of the population ofAnopheles sinensis larvae were studied in the rice field area in the suburb of Urawa city in Japan, during the summer seasons in 1973 and 1974. The distribution pattern of the larval population within the field, analysed by the m−m regression method, indicated that the basic component of larval distribution was not a group of individuals but a single individual and such components were distributed contagiously over the field. This basic pattern did not change significantly according to developmental stage, census date or field. Therefore, we could describe the distribution pattern of the population in a rice field by the single linear regression, x=0.021+1.339x(r²−0.912). Also, the relation for the whole population in the field area including the five fields could be shown by the linear regression, x=0.049+1.749x(r²−0.959). The value of α remained to be nearly equal to zero, but the value of β became larger than the value for the single-field relation. Such a change in distribution pattern seemed to reflect the greater heterogeneity in conditions among the fields than within individual field. Using the information on the distribution patterns mentioned above, some considerations were given on the sampling plans for mosquito larvae, including samplesize determination and application of sequential methods to estimate population size as well as to classify population level.     

The outbreak mechanisms of the green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix cincticeps Uhler, in northern Japan

Intraspecific regulatory processes keep the population ofNephotettix cincticeps stable at a low density in southern Japan. In northern Japan, however, the yearly population density of the insect fluctuates violently, and large outbreaks occasionally take place. To clarify the difference in the population dynamics between the two regions, we analyzed light-trap and sweep-net sampling records from prefectural and national agricultural experimental stations. The survival rate of the overwintering population decreased with increases in the period of continuous snow cover (PCSC) in the north, and initial population densities in the years of long PCSC were too low for populations to reach equilibrium density by the end of the active breeding season. This made yearly population fluctuations in the north much larger than in the south. The equilibrium density in the north was higher than in the south. The higher equilibrium density presumably permits the higher population density and larger yearly population fluctuations in the north. A major factor responsible for the difference in equilibrium densities between the two regions is the difference in heading dates of the host plant (rice). Qualitative differences among rice plant varieties, and among biotypes ofN. cincticeps, may also be important.     

Annual survival rate and age structure of habu,Trimeresurus flavoviridis (Viperidae), on Minna island, Japan: Estimation from removal trapping

A population of a viperid snake,Trimeresurus flavoviridis, was studied over 10 years by removal trapping on a small subtropical island in Japan. The sex ratio of trapped individuals changed seasonally, but was not biased to either sex in the whole sample of 258 individuals. The age of each individual was estimated through the size structure and the age-size relationship. The minimum number of individuals at the beginning of the study was estimated through accumulating older individuals trapped in the subsequent years. By assuming an annual natural survival rate in the course of this accumulation, an age structure was simulated which led to calculate a resulted natural survival rate. The assumed rate of 0.62 fitted best to the resulted one. The annual trapped proportion estimated on the simulated absolute number of individuals was higher in older individuals than in younger ones with the overall mean of 16%.     

Contest competition inDrosophila subobscura

The role of larval intraspecific competition in laboratory populations ofDrosophila subobscura was investigated. Mortality is density-independent during the first 3 days after hatching but becomes density dependent as development proceeds to pupation. Although total biomass per patch was independent of initial egg density, competition betweenDrosophila larvae leads to the formation of smaller pupae. This resulted in a population that was dominated by suppressed individuals. Development rate ofD. subobscura larvae was not affected by high larval densities. Smaller pupae give rise to females with fewer eggs in their ovarioles. A simple simulation model, predicting the effects of intraspecific competition on the fecundity of the nextDrosophila generation is described.     

A note on the estimation of selective values from recaptures of marked animals when selection pressures remain constant over time

Summary An equation is given for the estimation of selective values from data obtained by mark-recapture experiments, assuming that selective pressures remain constant while the experiments are carried out. The equation does not have an explicit solution but can readily be solved using a trial-and-error method. The use of the equation is illustrated on some data reported byKettlewell et al. (1969) from an experiment involvingtypica andedda morphs of the mothAmathes glareosa. It is found that theedda morph apparently had a selective advantage of about 12% per day compared to thetypica morph and that this is significantly different from zero. Using another methodKettlewell concluded that the selective advantage of theedda morph was only 7% and that this was not statistically significant.     

The species-area relation II. A second model for continuous sampling

Summary A second mathematical model describing the species-area relation was proposed for continuous expanding of sample area. This model is expressed asS=λ ln(1+x/E) whereS is the number of species occurring in an areax, and λ andE are the constants termedspecific diversity andelemental area respectively. As a result of testing the validity of the model for several sets of data, it was shown that the above equation would provide an adequate fit to a group of species belonging to a single synusia which exists in an open habitat. The ecological implications of parameters involved were discussed and the characteristic area presented previously (Kobayashi, 1974) was defined in terms ofE. The relation between results obtained by discrete sampling and continuous sampling was examined and the possibility of converting one to another was suggested. Contribution from the Laboratory of Applied Zoology, Yamagata University, No. 79.     

Modelling and analyzing density-dependent population processes: Comparison between wild and laboratory strains of the bean weevil,Callosobruchus chinensis (L.)

Three models were constructed for analyzing the population characteristics ofC. chinensis on stored beans; model A describing the whole reproductive process with a single equation, model B describing the three age-specific processes (oviposition, egg survival and larval survival) with separate equations, and model C which describes all these processes not for the whole habitat but for the individual beans comprizing it. The logit equation was employed here as a common basis to describe the density-response relationship involved. All three models showed very good fit to the experimental data obtained for both laboratory and wild strains of the weevil. The parameter values characterizing the population dynamics were, however, widely different between the two strains; the laboratory one which had been reared for some 500 generations showed significantly higher reproductive capacity, less sensitive and gentler response to crowding in both adult and egg stages, and more uniform egg distribution among individual beans, as compared with the wild strain newly introduced. Sensitivity analyses using these models suggested that these changes in population characteristics have been attained by the process of domestication or adaptation to stable laboratory conditions through a long period of time. This process seemed in effect to have optimized the population's performances in the laboratory environment. Evolutionary significance of such optimization was discussed with reference to the selection pressure which may have acted upon individuals.     

Population dynamics of the whitebacked planthopper,Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) with special reference to the relationship between its population growth and the growth stage of rice plants

A population census was conducted to describe the effects of the growth stage of rice on the population dynamics ofS. furcifera, in particular, on immigration, seasonal abundance, population growth rate, and wing-form expression. The number of immigrants was highest on rice plants 17 to 30 days after transplanting (DAT), which suggested that immigrants prefer to settle or remain more on rice plants at the tillering stage (approximately 20–30 DAT). Population growth rate from immigration to the 1st generation decreased with an increase in rice plant age. In contrast, population growth rate from the 1st to 2nd generation was not influenced by rice plant age and was negatively density-dependent. The percentage of macropters (flyers) was positively related to the growth stage of rice when rice was in the vegetative or early part of the reproductive stage, and reached 100% at about 10 days before heading (booting stage). Threafter, most adult females molted into macropters regardless of population density. The roles of host plant age and crowding effect on the population dynamics ofS. furcifera are discussed.     

Comparative studies on the seasonal occurrence, nymphal development and food menu in two giant water bugs,Diplonychus japonicus vuillefroy andDiplonychus major esaki (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae)

Summary We compared the seasonal changes in population density and nymphal development at different water temperatures and under different food conditions between two giant water bugs,Diplonychus japonicus andD. major, in Okayama, Japan. D. japonicus produced 1–2 generations a year, whileD. major was strictly inivoltine. The developmental velocity was higher inD. japonicus than inD. major. The thermal constant ofD. japonicus was less than that ofD. major. These results suggest thatD. japonicus is adapted, to higher water temperature thanD. major. In the field,D. japonicus preyed predominately on Lymnaeidae and Physidae snails, whileD. major preyed on aquatic insects such as dragonfly nymphs.     

Anopheles subpictus Grassi: Observations on survivorship and population size using mark-release-recapture and dissection methods

Summary A mark-release-recapture experiment to estimate population survivorship and absolute size was performed with wild-caughtAn. subpictus adults at the village of Khano-Harni, Lahore District, Punjab Province, Pakistan during September 1978, the end of the monsoon rainy season, when temporal population abundance was maximized. Daily survival rate estimated from the recapture sequence of marked adults was low, males=0.192 and females=0.343. Survivorship for females estimated by several vertical age-grading procedures ranged from 0.347 to 0.628. Both stage- and age-specific life tables were calculated from vertical age-grading data determined by the dilatation method. Female and male population size was estimated byBailey’s modification of theLincoln Index and was found to average 4478.4 and 6106.8, respectively. The bionomics, survivorship and population size ofAn. subpictus in the Lahore are indicated that this species was probably not important in the transmission of human malaria.     

Regulation of reproduction rate in a cyclic population of the red-backed vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae

Summary Changes of the components of reproduction were analyzed quantitatively in a two-year cyclic population (which has two peaks in alternate years during a five-year census) of the red-backed vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae, with reference to its regulatory mechanism: (1) Variation in sex ratios was not associated with population phase or density, although a higher percentage of females in mature individuals was observed in the increase phase. (2) Females attained to sexual maturity at younger age and at lighter body weight than did males. All the youngest mature individuals were found in the low and the increase phases. Age and size at maturity became older and larger as the population went toward the peak phase. (3) Maturation rate was strongly associated with population phase and density; this component is an important and good parameter to predict population trend. Maturation rates were in the order, the low phase>the increase phase>the peak phase>the decline phase; the differences in the rates among these phases were significant. Maturation rate was somewhat depressed when the population density exceeded about 40 individuals/ha. Changes in age at maturity and in maturation rate are interpreted as derivative phenomena related to the population density and the capacity of the number of mature voles per unit area. (4) The maximum number of mature individuals were 26 males/ha and 29 females/ha; there was almost no increase of the number of mature voles at higher population densities over about 40 individuals/ha. The number of exclusive home ranges per hectare calculated from the observed range lengths did not differ much from the maximum number of mature voles of either sex. (5) Length of breeding period was shorter in the high-density years than in the low-density years; the breeding started earlier and ended earlier in the former than that in the latter. In the increase phase a few voles reproduced in winter. (6) The percentage of pregnant females was significantly lower in the peak phase than those in the other phases.     

Accessibility of health and human services for the HIV-infected

Most research on services for the HIV/AIDS population has focused on primary medical care or on service brokering by advocacy groups. Little research data exist on the extent to which services of programs that do not specialize in HIV/AIDS clients are available to these individuals who often have multiple and multi-dimensional problems. The reported research examines selected data from a sample of 236 medical, behavioral health and social service programs in Miami-Dade County, Florida. A constructed measure of involvement in services for HIV/AIDS clients, pertinent provider program and client characteristics are examined in the context of geo-distributed data on reported AIDS cases and census data. In logistic regression analyses, two aspects of race/– the population in the zip code area served by the program, and the clients or patients seen in the program – were significant in predicting program under-response, defined as level of response relative to cumulative reported AIDS cases from the program's zip code area. The analysis is briefly discussed regarding its relevance and methodological generalizability for HIV/AIDS and related public health policy and applied purposes.     

Fate of a mutant emerging at the initial stage of evolution

A simple system was constructed and used in the experimental elucidation of the fate of a mutant emerging in a population. ThreeEscherichia coli strains having the same genetic background except for their glutamine synthetase gene were used as model competitors. The difference in the enzyme gene were introduced by random mutation. Competition between these bacterial strains was carried out and observed in a continuous liquid culture. In most cases, the competitors stably coexist either in a steady state or in an oscillating state. In addition, the competition between the strains was found to be a deterministic process and not a stochastic one. These results showed that an emerging mutant in a population, be it a closely related one to the original members, can attain a state of stable coexistence even in a homogeneous environment. The ability of each of the emerging mutants to maintain its stable coexistence with the original population gives rise to the accumulation of various mutants in a population. Therefore, evolution starts from gradual accumulation of various mutants in the population, which in turn leads to the diversification of the population. As our experimental system is a minimum model for the various competitions in the natural ecosystem, the observed competitive coexistence is proposed to be a general phenomenon in nature.     

Modelling selection for resistance to methods of insect pest control in combination

The development of resistance to insecticides is now widespread among insects. Other methods of pest control are also potentially at risk of encountering resistance. A modelling approach is presented here to evaluate the effects of combining methods of insect pest control on the selection for resistance to the control methods. This analysis is based on partitioning the total mortality acting on a population into its constituent components from all known sources, and these are related to selection for resistance. When two control methods are used in combination, selection for resistance against the two is a linear function if the two don't interact, otherwise it may be sublinear or supralinear. A specific example is presented using a model of the Olive fruit fly (Dacus oleae Gmel.) and employing food-baited and pheromone-baited traps for control. The control methods that appear least likely to encounter resistance are natural enemies and the use of pheromone traps for male annihilation. These should be integrated into a control program where possible to minimize the development of resistance to other control methods being used.