Understanding the sex ratio in India: A simulation approach

The highly masculine sex ratio in India has increased substantially in the twentieth century, in contrast to most other countries in the world. Competing arguments alternatively posit under-enumeration, highly masculine sex ratios at birth, or excess female mortality throughout the life course as the factors underlying the level of the overall sex ratio; these arguments have not been resolved. Based on population projections that simulate population dynamics, our findings show that small differences in mortality at young ages, persisting over a long period, as well as a sex ratio at birth of 106 males per 100 females, result in a highly masculine population sex ratio.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 1998

This article presents estimates of relevant population numbers and vital rates in Thailand as of July 1, 1998. Utilizing the standard demographic techniques of analysis, the estimates provided are assured to be the most accurate demographic estimates possible. Total population was estimated at 61,143,000. Estimates by sex, locales, region, and by age group are included. In addition, the crude birth rate per 1000 population was estimated at 18.7; the crude death rate per 1000 population was 6.5. For the natural growth rate the estimate was at 1.2%, and the infant mortality rate was 25.0 per 1000 live births. In terms of life expectancy at birth, the estimate for males was 69.9 years, while for females it was 74.9 years. Additional years in life expectancy at age 60 were 20.3 years for males and 23.9 years for females. The total fertility rate per woman is 1.98, and contraceptive prevalence is 72.2%. The demographic data will be disseminated to Thai and international population researchers and planners.     

Recent fertility in Mexico: measurement and interpretation

Summary Mexican fertility has remained at a high level (a crude birth rate of 42-46) in spite of rapid economic development and its concomitants: rising levels of urbanization, education, income, and female labour force participation, and falling levels of infant mortality and agricultural population, combined with rural-urban migration. Data on child-woman ratios and children-ever-born statistics, for Mexico and each state, suggest that the constant crude birth rate is not masking age or region-specific declines in fertility. Cross-section regressions are employed in an attempt to explain Mexico's paradoxical fertility behaviour. Using measures of income, education, urbanization, occupational status, industrial composition, labour force participation, and the sex ratio, in a weighted log-linear form, a large portion of the variation in state adjusted child-woman ratios is explained by the 'demographic transition' variables. The only two which might possibly explain the trend in Mexican fertility are the income variable and the sex ratio, which have positive influences on Mexican fertility in 1960 and 1970.     

Books and Publications Received

Mexican fertility has remained at a high level (a crude birth rate of 42–46) in spite of rapid economic development and its concomitants: rising levels of urbanization, education, income, and female labour force participation, and falling levels of infant mortality and agricultural population, combined with rural-urban migration.

Data on child-woman ratios and children-ever-born statistics, for Mexico and each state, suggest that the constant crude birth rate is not masking age or region-specific declines in fertility.

Cross-section regressions are employed in an attempt to explain Mexico’s paradoxical fertility behaviour. Using measures of income, education, urbanization, occupational status, industrial composition, labour force participation, and the sex ratio, in a weighted log-linear form, a large portion of the variation in state adjusted child-woman ratios is explained by the ‘demographic transition’ variables. The only two which might possibly explain the trend in Mexican fertility are the income variable and the sex ratio, which have positive influences on Mexican fertility in 1960 and 1970.     

Thailand population statistics] as of April 1, 1994

This one page profile gives population statistics for April 1994 in Thailand. Total population is estimated to be 58,656,000 persons, of whom 29,310,000 were male and 29,346,000 were female. The population was 18,019,000 in urban areas and 40,637,000 in rural areas. Regional population was distributed as follows: 7,532,000 in the Northern Region, 19,773,000 in the Northeastern Region, 7,174,000 in the Southern Region, 14,652,000 in the Central Region excluding Bangkok Metropolis, and 7,525,000 in Bangkok Metropolis. 35,669,000 women were of reproductive age (15-44 years). As regards the general population, 19,614,000 were aged 6-21 years, 35,669,000 were aged 20 years or older, 16,893,000 were aged under 15 years, 37,481,000 were aged 15-59 years, and 4,282,000 were aged 60 years or older. The crude birth rate was 18.5/1000 total population. The crude death rate was 6.4/1000 total population. The natural growth rate was 1.2%. The infant mortality rate was 34.5/1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth was 67.7 years for males and 72.4 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 18.8 years for males and 22.0 years for females. The total fertility rate was 1.95 children/woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 75.0%. Population is expected to increase to 71,414,000 persons in the year 2012. A separate graph indicates the estimated numbers of child prostitutes based on five different assumptions about total numbers of commercial sex workers in 1993.     

Child marriage in India]

Child marriages have been practiced in India for thousands of years. Even though its popularity has now decreased due to changes in law and society, it is still a major problem, causing a great deal of hardship. Even though laws prohibited child marriage as early as 1860, statistics show that, on the average, Indians marry very young (1972: females at age 17; males at age 22 years of age; 34 females and 13 males under age 15). The following are incentives to marry young and have large families: 1) religion teaches that only those with descendants go to heaven; 2) unmarried women are traditionally scorned; and 3) most importantly, economic reasons encourage people to have large families as soon as possible, e.g., male children are encouraged to marry to obtain the dowry as soon as possible and children are considered a source of income in India. Child marriage in India causes the following problems: 1) a high infant mortality rate, as much as 75% in rural areas; 2) an imbalance in the male to female ratio (1901: 970 females/1000 males; 1971: 930 females/1000 males) because women who marry young tend to lose their health earlier; 3) a population explosion: in 1971, the Indian population was found to be increasing at the rate of 225/1000.     

The imbalance of sex ratio at birth,and its causes and countermeasures in China

This news brief focuses on the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in China, its causes, and remedial efforts. A SRB has been evident since the 1980s. The SRB increased from 108.48 male/100 female births to 116.30 male/100 female births during 1981-94. A normal SRB in China during 1940-94 would have been 107 male/100 female births. The SRB rose every year after 1985, with the exception of 1988. Male births increased, while female births decreased. SRB declined with age. The sex ratio in 1991, was 112.3 for children aged 0-4 years, 108.38 for children aged 5-9 years, and 106.56 for children aged 10-14 years. SRB values were higher in more populous provinces and lower in less populous provinces. SRB values were lower in northwestern China than in southeastern China. SRB values of minorities were lower than the Han ethnic group. A high SRB will increase the proportion single in later years. In 1990, 7.86 million people aged 30-40 years were single, of whom 94.32% were males. The SRB is caused by second, third, or higher birth orders. In 1993, sex ratios were 105.60 for first births, 130.22 for second births, and 126.12 for third births. The imbalance is attributed to a preference for sons as inheritors of blood ties and as family physical laborers. The imbalance is due to strict birth control and people's refusal to report female births. There is a need to increase awareness of the consequences, to increase old-age pensions and social security, to increase women's status, and to prohibit sex determination of a fetus. The family structure should emphasize its consumptive capacity rather than its function as a production unit.     

Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection? Evidence from the Chinese census

Recent increases in the (male/female) sex ratio at birth in eastern Asia are thought to be associated with a preference for sons and to result from parental sex selection. However, males are less likely to marry and to have offspring as the ratio increases, and that decreases the expected number of grandchildren. Using data from the 2000 Chinese census, we test whether the sex ratio in the marriage market has an effect on the gender of subsequent births and hence on the sex ratio of the birth cohort. The slow population growth caused by the Great Famine in the early 1960s and the quick recovery that followed produced major changes in the sex ratio for those of marriageable age two decades later. We estimate that an increase of 1 % in the number of marriageable males relative to females, the marriage market sex ratio, would decrease the probability of having a son by 0.02 percentage points. That implies that the Great Famine, which occurred around 1960, led to an increase in the early 1980s of 5.8 extra male births per 100 females.     

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.     

Population statistics] as of October 1, 1994

As of October 1, 1994, Thailand's population was comprised of 29,413,000 males and 29,448,000 females, 18,588,000 of whom resided in urban areas. 11,501,000 lived in the North, 20,007,000 to the Northeast, 7,310,000 in the South, 12,732,000 in central Thailand excluding Bangkok, and 7,311,000 in the Bangkok metropolis. 16,952,000 were under 15 years old, 19,682,000 aged 6-21, 37,612,000 aged 15-59, 35,793,000 aged 20 and over, and 4,297,000 aged 60 and over. There were 15,195,000 women aged 15-44. The crude birth rate was 17.6/1000, crude death rate 5.8/1000, natural growth rate 1.2%, and infant mortality rate 34.13 per 1000 live births. Male and female life expectancies at birth were respectively 67.7 and 72.4 years, while male and female life expectancies at 60 were 18.8 and 22.0. Rates of total fertility per woman and contraceptive prevalence were respectively 1.95 and 75.0%. The population is projected to total 71,637,000 in the year 2012.     

A study of Irish county marriage rates, 1961-1966

Abstract This article considers a group of models of Irish county marriage rates. Some of these models account for the major part of the inter-county variation in male and female marriage rates in terms of the influence of a limited number of socio-economic variables. The sex ratio of the unmarried population in the counties plays a key role in all of the models: the female marriage rate tends to be raised, and the male rate lowered, by a high ratio of males to females in the unmarried population. Male rates appear to increase under more favourable economic conditions, as measured by county income per person, while female rates appear to be lowered by increased female participation in the labour force. In addition to these separate influences on male and female rates, a recursive model in which there is a one-way influence from male to female rates, and a simultaneous-equation model, in which male and female rates are fully interdependent, were tested. The performance of the tested recursive model was particularly satisfactory.     

Population statistics] as of April 1, 1995

A one-page compendium of population data as of April 1, 1995, was provided for Thailand. Total population reached 59,160,000: 29,562,000 males and 29,598,000 females, and 18,683,000 in urban and 40,477,000 in rural areas. Regional distribution of population was 11,884,000 in the North region, 19,262,000 in the Northeast, 7,406,000 in the South, 12,834,000 in the Central (excluding Bangkok Metropolis), and 7,774,000 in Bangkok Metropolis. The age distribution of the population was as follows: 17,038,000 under 15 years old; 37,803,000 aged 15-59 years; 4,319,000 over 60 years old; 19,782,000 aged 6-21 years; 38,226,000 aged 18 years and older; 35,975,000 aged 20 years and older; and 15,273,000 women 15-44 years old. The crude birth rate was 17.4 per 1000 population. The crude death rate was 6.1 per 1000 population. The natural growth rate was 1.1%. The infant mortality rate was 30.9 per 1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth was 66.6 years for males and 71.7 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 18.8 additional years for males and 22.0 additional years for females. The total fertility rate was 1.95 per woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 74.0%. Projected population in 2012 was 70,995,000 persons. Among youth 15-24 years old, 9% of rural single males and females, 25% of other urban single males, and 45% of single Bangkok males lived away from parents. 34% of single other urban females and 31% of single Bangkok females lived away from parents. In rural areas, 36% of married males and 42% of married females lived away from parents. In other urban areas, 64% of married males and 75% of married females lived away from parents. In Bangkok, 99% of married males and 81% of married females lived away from parents.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 2000

This table presents the population statistics of Thailand as of January 1, 2000. Thailand has a total population of 61,737,000; 30,726,000 are males and 31,011,000 are females. The urban areas have a population of 18,972,000, while the rural areas have a population of 42,765,000. The population numbers, by region, are the following: northern, 12,117,000; northeastern, 20,164,000; southern, 7,957,000; central (excluding Bangkok Metropolis), 13,654,000; Bangkok Metropolis, 7,845,000. Children (under age 15) numbered 14,764,000; labor force participants (ages 15-59), 41,647,000; the elderly (ages 60-79), 4,974,000; those aged 80 and above, 352,000; the school-age population (ages 6-21), 16,703,000; reproductive-age women (ages 15-44), 16,697,000; and the voting population (ages 18 and over), 43,691,000. The crude birth rate (per 1000 population) is 16.4, and the crude death rate is 6.5. Thailand has a natural growth rate of 1.0% and an infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) of 22.4. Life expectancy at birth among males and females is 69.9 and 74.9, respectively. The total fertility rate is 1.9/woman, the contraceptive prevalence rate is 72.2%, and the ratio of females per 1 male is 1.0 for ages 0-59, 1.1 for ages 60-79, and 2.0 for ages 80 and over.     

China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census

China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.     

The cocos-keeling islands: A demographic laboratory

The Cocos Islands, which are situated in the Indian Ocean approximately halfway between Colombo and Fremantle, were first peopled early in the nineteenth century and were gradually developed as a very isolated coconut plantation with a labour force consisting partly of persons of Malay stock descended from the original group of settlers and partly of Bantamese contract labourers from Java. As the Cocos-born population increased in size, the dependence on contract labour decreased and, before the end of the century, all immigration ceased. The 1947 Malay population of the islands was about 1,800.

The islands are fascinating from a demographer's point of view because there was a virtually complete registration of live births, deaths and marriages and a partial registration of stillbirths. With these registration records it was possible to construct the life history of every individual from birth, through infancy and childhood to marriage, and thence through fatherhood or motherhood to death.

The picture revealed by an analysis of these records is that of a population with very high fertility and with mortality at a high level before the first World war and at a medium level after that war. Crude birth rates varied between 50 and 60 per thousand population during the period 1888 to 1947. Crude death rates were between 30 and 40 per thousand population until 1912 but under 2.0 per thousand population after 1918.

Most Cocos girls married before reaching the age of 20 and there were an average of between eight and nine live births per woman living through the childbearing period. There was a steady decline in the average number of live births with advancing age at marriage from age 16 onwards. A significantly high proportion of those dying in the middle of the childbearing period had never married, but the fertility of those marrying at an early age (14, 15 and 16) and dying before reaching the age of 36 was slightly higher than that of those who married at a similar age and survived. Women who survived to the age of 55 were of higher fertility than those who died between the ages of 40 and 55. An analysis of birth intervals revealed significant differences (a) between birth intervals after a stillbirth or after a live birth in which the child died in early infancy, and birth intervals after a live birth in which the offspring survived for longer than 0.4 years, and (b) between the interval from first to second birth and the subsequent birth intervals. There was a difference of almost exactly a year between the average birth interval after a stillbirth or live birth ending in a neo-natal death and the average birth interval after the birth of a child surviving to age 2; there was a similar difference of a year between corresponding median birth intervals.

From 1888 to 1912 infant mortality was well above 300 per thousand. After 1918 infant mortality averaged rather under 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The reduction in infant mortality rates was accompanied by an increase in the mortality of children aged 1 to 4, and the heavy incidence of mortality at these ages after 1918 is the most striking feature of the analysis of mortality by age. Whilst mortality in infancy fell much more heavily on males than on females, early childhood mortality was much higher in Cocos for girls than for boys. The life table computed for the period 1918 to 1947 indicated a life expectancy of about 50 years for males and 47 years for females.     

中国出生性别比偏高及未来女性赤字预测

1980年代以来,中国人口出生性别比开始偏高且持续增高,2000年出生性别比已经达到116.9。出生性别比偏高不仅表现在分孩次的差异上,而且还表现出了明显的地区分布特征。本文利用“五普”数据资料为基期,对1980年后出生、并受出生性别比持续升高影响的人口进行预测,分析30年间的分城乡、分年龄的女性赤字规模及其变化趋势。     

Nonreporting of births or nonreporting of pregnancies? Some evidence from four rural counties in North China

Coale and Banister argue that in China, elevated sex ratios in retrospective surveys are in part a function of collecting birth histories in a culture in which the definition of a birth may exclude mortality shortly after birth: an infant death in the West may be a stillbirth in east Asia. I present data from a recent sample survey featuring a retrospective pregnancy history. These data reveal that at least in the first pregnancy, from which the preponderance of sample births arise, there is no evidence of elevated female infant mortality or of high numbers of stillbirths, but that reported sex ratios are unusually high. The proportion of stillbirths grows for later pregnancies, but not enough to account for high sex ratios. Retrospective fertility data regarding recall over a recent interval are vexed less by a misunderstanding of what a live birth is than by a “misunderstanding” of what a (reportable) pregnancy is.     

Sex ratio at birth for urban and rural areas

Previous studies show that sex ratio at birth in China's urban areas is usually higher than that of rural areas. The higher proportion of 1st births in urban areas was once taken to explain the cause for the higher sex ratio. The data of the 1982 fertility sampling survey show that the sex ratio at birth during the period from 1964 to 1981 remains higher in the urban areas (108.0) than in the rural areas (107.8). Further studies are yet needed on the differentials in sex ratios at birth between urban and rural areas and on their causes. The sex ratio in 1981 of the 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China's mainland was 108.5, somewhat higher than that of most countries in the world. 2 things account for the occurrence. 1 is that, biologically, certain particularities may exist in the sex ratio at birth of China's population, for the ratio varies with ethnic groups, nationalities and regions. The other is that, sociologically, female infants may be underreported in some areas and the phenomenon of infanticide left over by history still exists in some isolated cases. These surveys suggest that a certain specific characteristic does exist in the sex ratio at birth of China's urban areas, but they also contribute to the explanation of the higher sex ratio at birth of the total population of the country.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 1998

In thousands, Thailand's total population as of January 1, 1998, was 60,763, of which 30,363 were male and 30,400 were female. 19,127 live in urban areas and 41,636 live in rural areas. 11,363 live in the northern region, 20,720 to the northeast, 8021 in the South, 13,550 centrally, and 7109 in the Bangkok metropolis. 16,375 were under age 15, 39,282 aged 15-59, and 5106 aged 60 and over. There were 15,728 women of reproductive ages 15-44. Crude birth and death rates per 1000 population were 17.3 and 6.5, respectively, with an overall natural growth rate of 1.1%. Infant mortality was 25.0/1000 live births. Male and female life expectancies at birth were 66.6 and 71.7 years, respectively. Further life expectancies at age 60 for males and females were 20.3 and 23.9 years, respectively. The rate of total fertility per woman was 1.98, with a contraceptive prevalence rate of 72.2%.     

性别失衡下的人口健康与公共安全:国际视野与历史经验

在经济社会转型之际,中国因出生性别比和女婴死亡水平的持续偏高而即将面临严峻的性别结构失衡问题。大规模的男性过剩人口将对人口健康特别是公共健康与安全造成什么样的风险成为政府成功应对挑战的关注点。在目前尚缺乏直接证据的前提下,基于国际的视野和历史经验,从个体人口健康、公共健康与安全两个层次,对不同时期和文化环境下有关性别失衡与健康风险的研究进行系统的综述,识别出男性过剩的人口环境将引发的健康风险的类型和危害程度,在比较分析的基础上,提出应对中国性别失衡背景下健康风险的政策建议,讨论未来该领域的研究方向。