试论我国人口素质下降的证据.原因及对策

本文举证分析了造成我国人口素质下降的原因，提出了防止我国人口素质下降的对策     

Cognitive Models of Fertility Decline in Oaxaca City,Mexico

This paper presents a systematic analysis of the culture of natality. In the first section, I present an extended definition of culture informed by cognitive anthropology and evolutionary biology. I argue that culture is an adaptation and a virtual environment with which humans must interact in order to survive and reproduce in a given physical environment. In the second section, I present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of qualitative interview data collected in Oaxaca City, Mexico, on reproductive behavior. The analysis examines evidence of cultural differences and similarities. I conclude by discussing implications for a theory of fertility decline.     

Cognitive Models of Fertility Decline in Oaxaca City,Mexico

This paper presents a systematic analysis of the culture of natality. In the first section, I present an extended definition of culture informed by cognitive anthropology and evolutionary biology. I argue that culture is an adaptation and a virtual environment with which humans must interact in order to survive and reproduce in a given physical environment. In the second section, I present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of qualitative interview data collected in Oaxaca City, Mexico, on reproductive behavior. The analysis examines evidence of cultural differences and similarities. I conclude by discussing implications for a theory of fertility decline.     

Biodiversity decline and population externalities

To understand the problem of the global biodiversity decline, we set up a north–south model of population and income determination. Although biodiversity decline is mainly caused by primitive agricultural activities in some poor countries, we show that policies of resource management or Pigouvian taxes, targeted solely at rectifying such activities, are often ineffective. Since the production activities in these poor countries are correlated with parents’ fertility decisions, any efficient rectifications must involve a change in parents’ reproduction choice as well. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang     

Are there crisis-led fertility declines? Evidence from central Cameroon

Past demographic transitions have beenobserved with and without economic progress, but thereis little empirical record of crisis-driven fertilitytransitions. In recent years, several authors haveargued that conditions for such transitions are met inAfrican countries under economic crisis and structuraladjustment. Using retrospective family histories,this study examines fertility responses to crisis inCameroon, a country with a particularly abrupteconomic reversal. The thesis of a crisis-led declineis tested on the basis of five criteria includingtiming of the decline, statistical and substantivesignificance, rural-urban response differentials andsocial salience. Findings are consistent with acrisis-led effect.     

The narrowing sex differential in life expectancy in high-income populations: Effects of differences in the age pattern of mortality

Using data from the Human Mortality Database for 29 high-income national populations (1751–2004), we review trends in the sex differential in e(0). The widening of this gap during most of the 1900s was due largely to a slower mortality decline for males than females, which previous studies attributed to behavioural factors (e.g., smoking). More recently, the gap began to narrow in most countries, and researchers tried to explain this reversal with the same factors. However, our decomposition analysis reveals that, for the majority of countries, the recent narrowing is due primarily to sex differences in the age pattern of mortality rather than declining sex ratios in mortality: the same rate of mortality decline produces smaller gains in e(0) for women than for men because women's deaths are less dispersed across age (i.e., survivorship is more rectangular).     

Fertility in Kenya and Uganda: A comparative study of trends and determinants

Between 1980 and 2000 total fertility in Kenya fell by about 40 per cent, from some eight births per woman to around five. During the same period, fertility in Uganda declined by less than 10 per cent. An analysis of the proximate determinants shows that the difference was due primarily to greater contraceptive use in Kenya, though in Uganda there was also a reduction in pathological sterility. The Demographic and Health Surveys show that women in Kenya wanted fewer children than those in Uganda, but that in Uganda there was also a greater unmet need for contraception. We suggest that these differences may be attributed, in part at least, first, to the divergent paths of economic development followed by the two countries after Independence; and, second, to the Kenya Government's active promotion of family planning through the health services, which the Uganda Government did not promote until 1995.     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the ‘momentum of mortality change’. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e ₀ (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Union organizing effort and success in the U.S., 1948–2004

While union density in the public sector has increased in recent decades, private sector union density in the U.S. has declined steadily since the mid-1950s. Scholars have evoked a variety of explanations to account for the decline in union membership, but substantially less attention has been devoted to understanding the contribution of the union organizing process as governed by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). In this paper, we focus on two aspects of this process: union organizing effort (the effort to establish union representation elections to organize non-unionized workers) and union organizing success (success in winning union representation elections). Using annual time series data for the U.S. from 1948 to 2004, we show that there has been a long-term decline in both union organizing effort and union organizing success, which likely contributes to declining union density. We focus on three explanations for these changes: the political–legal environment for unions, deindustrialization and globalization, and employer opposition to unionization efforts. We find that each of these factors contributes to organizing effort and success and conclude with a discussion of the implications of this research for future mobilization efforts.     

The Death of the West: An alternative view

Much has been written about the ‘Death of the West’, a demise threatened by the low level of reproduction in Western countries. That fate is contrasted unfavourably with the rapid growth of the populations and economies of less developed countries, and the prospect of the numerical and political marginalization of the formerly dominant developed world. We believe that trends in European fertility have been misunderstood and that, with effort and some pain, their consequences for age structure are manageable. Many European societies also enjoy the advantages of demographic and social maturity, the resilience of established consensual democratic institutions, the rule of law, and civil society. The sizes of China and India raise problems of resource sustainability and vulnerability to climate change. China risks falling into a low-fertility trap, reinforced by urban working conditions unfriendly to family formation. Traditional patriarchal and familist cultures may depress fertility rates to unhelpfully low levels in other less developed countries.     

Study on the Relationship between Parity Structure and Imbalance of Sex Ratio at Birth in China

In China, the increase of the sex ratio at birth(SRB)associates with the decline of the fertility level. The change of the parity structure,one of the main reasons of the low fertility level,may also play an important part in the change of the SRB. We fi nd that the decrease of the proportion of the second and higher parity deters the imbalance of the SRB in China. The increase of the SRB in China is mainly caused by the increase of the second and higher parity's correspondent level of SRB before 2000,and the fi rst parity's SRB also Plays more and more important role after 2000.     

The Relationship Between Resources and Human Migration Patterns in Central Kamchatka During the Post-Soviet Period

This paper examines the relationship between resources and migration in post-Soviet Kamchatka (Russian Far East). During the post-Soviet period of socio-economic hardship, migration trends have changed drastically both in central Kamchatka and throughout the Russian Far East. I predicted that there would be a clear relationship between resource scarcity and people's decisions to leave in search of more propitious opportunities. Against the backdrop of economic decline, out-migration prevailed in central Kamchatka throughout the post-Soviet period; however, migration patterns among villages in this rural and resource-dependent region diverge considerably. Villages in central Kamchatka facing a local natural resource crisis show greater net negative migration than those with a relatively intact resource base. Such variation is notable, given the relatively contained area of the study; it suggests migration patterns are closely tied to ecological conditions. Besides socio-economic and ecological factors, historical circumstances also influence migration patterns. The decision to migrate is complex, arising from the interaction of socio-economic, political, ecological, and historical conditions.     

Women's lives and rapid fertility decline: Some lessons from Bangladesh and Egypt

The recent experiences of Bangladesh and Egypt show thatfertility can sustain impressive declines even when women's lives remain severely constrained.Since the late 1970s, rural and urban areas in both countries have experienced steadydeclines in fertility, with recent declines in rural Bangladesh similar to those in ruralEgypt, despite lower levels of development and higher rates of poverty. This paperprovides an in-depth exploration of the demographic transition in these two societies andaddresses three basic questions: (1) have measurable improvements in economic opportunities forwomen been a factor in the fertility decline?; (2) can preexisting differences in gender systemsexplain the more rapid fertility decline in Bangladesh, despite the more modest economicachievements?; (3) can the development strategies adopted by the governments ofBangladesh and Egypt, be seen as additional factors in explaining the similar rural fertilitydeclines despite dissimilar economic circumstances? The paper concludes that neither gender systemsnor changes in women's opportunities appear to have contributed to declining fertility.Indeed, low levels of women's autonomy have posed no barrier to fertility decline in eithercountry. However, there is a case to be made that Bangladesh's distinct approach to development,with considerable emphasis on reaching the rural poor and women and a strong reliance onnongovernmental institutions, may have played a part in accelerating the transition in thatenvironment and in helping women to become more immediate beneficiaries of that process.

     

Russia Faces Depopulation? Dynamics of Population Decline

Between 1992 and 1993 Russia's population declined, as it has in every succeeding year. This has been viewed as a population disaster, related to high adult male mortality and deterioration of the health care system. Some see a substantially depopulated Russia in the future. However, the prospect of long-term population decline is completely due to recent declines in fertility. High adult male mortality, although a cause of great concern, does not contribute to the chance of long-term population decline. Projections of the future population of Russia depend upon the exact fertility assumptions used. Based on the example of fertility in the United States in the Great Depression and the Baby Boom following World War II, the future depopulation of Russia is far from certain.     

Should a Second Demographic Transition Follow the First? Demographic Contrasts: Canada and South Korea

Social Indicators Research -     

Men's influence on the onset and progress of fertility decline in Ghana, 1988–98

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

The western fertility decline: Reflections from a chronological perspective

The study of recent fertility trends in the West has been dominated by examinations of Europe. A better perspective on twentieth-century fertility movements can be gained by giving an equal emphasis to trends in the ‘Offshoots’ (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). This paper focuses on the periods of rapid fertility decline and to a greater extent on the intervening periods of near-equilibrium. It is suggested that the ‘late twentieth century compromise’ is more stable than is suggested by reports on its internal strains, and that only massive government intervention could raise fertility.     

Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities

Near‐global fertility decline began in the 1960s, and from the 1980s an increasing number of European countries and some Asian ones achieved very low fertility (total fertility below 1.5) with little likelihood of completed cohort fertility reaching replacement level. Earlier theory aiming at explaining this phenomenon stressed the incompatibility between post‐industrial society and behaviour necessary for population replacement. Recent theory has been more specific, often concentrating on the current Italian or Spanish situations or on the contrast between them and the situation in either Scandinavia or the English‐speaking countries, or both. Such an approach ignores important evidence, especially that from German‐speaking populations. The models available concentrate on welfare systems and family expenses, omitting circumstances that may be unique to individual countries or longer‐term factors that may be common to all.