系统风险的会计决定: 企业财务风险、经营风险、 系统风险的时变关联 ①

新企业会计准则的颁布有力推进了我国金融工具信息披露制度建设,但是到目前为止,研究者对会计信息和上市公司系统风险的关系还不是很清楚．本文提出了新的经济理论模型用于研究财务风险、经营风险和系统风险的动态关联．主要结论: 一、财务杠杆和经营杠杆以乘子的形式放大了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险,这一结论在时变的条件下仍成立;二、理论证实了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险来源于公司净利润 － 流通市值比率、销售增长率和平均价格增长率的变动;三、财务风险和经营风险间存在一个权衡,例如经营风险高的公司,将会选择一个较低的财务风险     

公司绩效、财务风险与年报披露及时性的相关性研究——来自我国能源类上市公司的证据

以沪深两市能源类102家A股上市公司2004~2006年间306组观测值为对象,研究公司绩效、财务风险与信息披露及时性之间的关系。研究结果表明,公司绩效和年报披露及时性显著正相关;财务风险和年报披露及时性显著负相关;财务风险能通过公司绩效影响年报披露及时性;财务风险会对公司绩效和年报披露及时性的关系产生明显的扰动作用。     

浅析企业财务风险控制及防范

<正>企业财务风险存在于企业财务管理工作的各个环节,财务风险是企业在财务管理过程中必须面对的一个现实问题,财务风险是客观存在的,企业管理者对财务风险只有采取有效措施来降低风险,而不可能完全消除风险。一、财务风险的涵义及其产生原因市场经济条件下,每个企业都面临着无处不在、无时不在的风险,财务风险作为一种客观存在的经济风险贯穿于企业各个财务环节,是各种风险因素在企业财务上的集中体现。企业的财务风险,狭义上,是指由于利用财务杠杆给企业带来的破产风险或普通股收益发生大幅度     

如何提升油田电力企业风险管控水平

全面风险管理是指对组织机构的各个层次的管理单元以及各类经营风险的通盘考虑和全面管理。风险管理的要求是将经营风险、财务风险以及各种风险组合纳入到统一体系,依据统一标准进行预测和测量,并对风险进行控制和管理。电力企业建立与完善全面风险管理机制,逐步强化科学规范的风险监管体系,能够提升企业对经营风险的研判、处置应变能力,对于重大风险预警与管控、推进公司生产经营健康持续发展具有重要作用。     

基于债权人的财务风险管理研究

在现代的公司治理结构中,债权人做为公司资金的提供者,具有到期收取本金和利息的固定权利,其财务风险是源自于企业经营风险的转移,由于不完全契约和信息不对称,债权人承担了与其收益不匹配的财务风险,治理权后置是导致债权人财务风险的直接原因;而信息不对称是根本原因.债权人对财务风险的管理关键获得一部分剩余控制权,让债权人拥有更多的经营信息,实现股权和债权共同治理.     

基于财务结构的财务风险控制

本文在对财务风险类别进行界定的基础上,认为通过财务结构调整能够防范和控制的主要是企业的非系统财务风险。在此基础上,围绕企业资产结构、资本结构两个维度,结合相关文献进一步探讨了财务结构与非系统财务风险(筹资风险和经营风险)之间的作用机理。最后,提出了作者对财务风险控制的个人建议。     

刍论财务杠杆和企业财务风险

企业财务风险是现代企业经营中不可避免的问题,随着环境的变化、竞争的加剧以及受全球金融危机的影响,企业也面临愈来愈多变和复杂的财务风险。本文探讨了财务杠杆、财务风险的含义以及二者的关系,并对财务杠杆应用方面提出了一些思路和建议。     

企业财务风险的分析与防范

目前我国许多企业盲目追求多元化和高速发展,企业面临资金短缺、资本结构不合理、财务杠杆过高等财务风险,严重影响了企业的生存和发展。企业的财务风险"牵一发而动全身",企业的管理者应增强风险意识,充分识别财务风险,防范和控制财务风险对企业产生的不利效果。     

企业筹资的风险防范

企业筹资风险包括经营风险、财务风险、利率风险、汇率风险和决策风险。文章分析了形成企业筹资风险的原因,提出了企业筹资风险的防范措施:确定最佳的资本结构;合理安排筹资期限组合方式;防范利率覆汇率变动带来的筹资风险。     

构建企业财务风险预警系统

企业财务预警体系是以财务管理活动中的财务风险和经营风险为主要研究对象,探讨企业财务风险的运动规律和产生原因,并对企业财务风险隐患及其发展趋势进行监测、识别、诊断与预控的理论与方法。其目的在于减少和消除企业财务风险隐患,保证企业的财务系统和经营管理系统处于良好的运行状态。本文针对企业财务风险,提出了财务风险预警体制的构建措施和流程,并提出了相关建议。     

Corporate risk management and pension investment policy

In this paper, we study whether firms manage their pension risk exposures within an integrated corporate risk management framework or they manage their pension and firm risk exposures independently following the adoption of fair value pension reporting regulation (IAS 19). Controlling for known factors affecting the risk-taking in pension plan investments, we document a robust negative association both at the cross-section and over time between pension risk and firm systematic risk and operating asset risk during the post-IAS 19 adoption period. The findings suggest that firms manage pension risk as an integral part of firm risk, consistent with a coordinated risk management explanation. Overall, our evidence highlights that pension investment strategy is a dynamic process that is ultimately determined by sponsoring firms' strategic corporate risk management considerations and the important role that changing pension reporting regulation plays in shaping these dynamics. Our conclusions have potential wider implications for ongoing reforms in financial reporting and disclosure policy settings.     

Economic Evaluation of Scale Dependent Technology Investments

We study the effect of financial risk on the economic evaluation of a project with capacity decisions. Capacity decisions have an important effect on the project̂s value through the up‐front investment, the associated operating cost, and constraints on output. However, increased scale also affects the financial risk of the project through its effect on the operating leverage of the investment. Although it has long been recognized in the finance literature that operating leverage affects project risk, this result has not been incorporated in the operations management literature when evaluating projects. We study the decision problem of a firm that must choose project scale. Future cash flow uncertainty is introduced by uncertain future market prices. The firm's capacity decision affects the firm's potential sales, its expected price for output, and its costs. We study the firm's profit maximizing scale decision using the CAPM model for risk adjustment. Our results include that project risk, as measured by the required rate of return, is related to the inverse of the expected profit per unit sold. We also show that project risk is related to the scale choice. In contrast, in traditional discounted cash flow analysis (DCF), a fixed prescribed rate is used to evaluate the project and choose its scale. When a fixed rate is used with DCF, a manager will ignore the effect of scale on risk and choose suboptimal capacity that reduces project value. S/he will also misestimate project value. Use of DCF for choosing scale is studied for two special cases. It is shown that if the manager is directed to use a prescribed discount rate that induces the optimal scale decision, then the manager will greatly undervalue the project. In contrast, if the discount rate is set to the risk of the optimally‐scaled project, the manager will undersize the project by a small amount, and slightly undervalue the project with the economic impact of the error being small. These results underline the importance of understanding the source of financial risk in projects where risk is endogenous to the project design.     

对企业实行债转股的思考

启动财务杠杆给企业带来的效益一直是理论界关注的焦点.本文所介绍的是在西方较为流行的两种对启动财务杠杆实行馈转股的企业进行效益分析的理论模型.第—种模型强调资本成本在债转股中的重要性,认为企业制订是否实行债转股的决策依据就是对企业破产成本,委托代理成本和无形资产成本的评估.而对投资者来说,在投资中选择持债还是持股也依据他们对委托代理成本和无形资产的评估.第二种模型则建议企业在启动资本杠杆实行债转股中注重对风险的规避. 对于中国国有企业实行的债转股,本文以为它在所有制、市场条件及社会经济制度背景等方面具有完全不同的性质.但我们仍可以利用财务杠杆的工作原理将国有企业的债务转为股份公开上市交易,以实行中国国有企业的民营化,减轻企业的债务负担,同时减少国有银行的呆坏帐.     

Corporate social responsibility disclosure and market valuation: evidence from Spanish listed firms

Using a sample of listed Spanish companies pertaining to the IBEX35 index for the period 2007–2011, this paper examines whether those firms with higher CSR disclosure ratings are more valued by market participants. This study also complements the literature addressing the value relevance of CSR disclosure by further analyzing not only the direct effects of CSR reporting on stock prices but also its indirect effects through its interaction with main accounting variables (i.e., earnings and book value of equity). CSR reports can also affect stock price indirectly because the sustainability report may be perceived by investors to be a source of further and complementary information regarding the nature, composition and trends of the traditional value-relevant accounting variables. Finally, this study also analyzes whether CSR disclosure by firms operating in environmentally-sensitive industries is assessed differently by market participants than CSR disclosure by companies operating in other industries. By using a modified Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 1:661–687, 1995) model, it is found that CSR disclosure do have both a direct and indirect effect on stock prices by modifying the value-relevance of earnings and book value of equity. Moreover, CSR disclosure by companies operating in environmentally-sensitive industries is associated with higher market valuations than CSR disclosure by companies operating in nonsensitive industries. This may be due to the fact that CSR disclosures provide information that allow investors to make better assessments of the increased risk related to potential litigation and future environmental liabilities, thereby reducing information asymmetries and the risk of adverse selection.     

信息非对称程度与企业家效用、资本结构、企业市场价值

本文分析了市场信息非对称程度对企业家投资效用、企业债务水平及企业市场价值的影响。分析表明,若企业项目是高质量的,信息非对称程度的降低可使企业项目市场价值和债务水平提高;反之,若企业项目是低质量的,信息非对称程度的降低可使企业项目市场价值和债务水平减少;外部知情投资者比例的变化与企业家效用的变化之间的关系与企业质量有关。     

带有市场交易信息和随机微观噪声下的杠杆效应研究

在风险管理中杠杆效应的现象广泛存在，也是金融计量学中的重要议题。高频金融市场中蕴含着丰富的交易信息，而这些信息并不能都看作随机噪声，因此探讨利用市场交易信息并在带有随机噪声模型下研究杠杆效应具有重要意义。本文在带有市场交易信息和随机微观噪声相结合的模型下研究了杠杆效应，提出了新的杠杆效应估计，该估计具有n^1/8的收敛速度，同时给出了估计的方差和相关的定理。通过模拟分析得出利用广泛的市场微观信息可以更有效和更精确地对杠杆效应进行估计，模拟的结果表明本文提出的杠杆效应估计具有更好的渐近正态性和更小的偏差。最后将提出的估计应用到实证分析中，发现杠杆效应对未来一天波动率的预测具有显著性影响。     

The Phenomenology of Earnings Management within the Confines of Agency Theory

Agents' selective and acceptable reporting of economic events by different accounting systems, compounded by alternative accounting methods and estimates, make financial statements an approximation of economic reality. The tendency to delay accounting recognition of some transactions suggests that financial statements lag behind reality. The difference between reality and imaginary is often referred to as the agency problem. An essential characteristic of this problem is risk attitudes of principals (shareholders) and agents (management). Shareholders are considered risk neutral in their preferences for individual firms. They are in a position to diversify their shareholdings across multiple firms. Agents on the other hand have security and income that are inextricably linked to one firm. It would not be surprising to find agents exhibiting risk aversion in decisions regarding the firm. Immediately one's attention is drawn to the opportunity costs that arise for the risk-neutral shareholders who prefer that agents maximize their returns. The risk differential between agents and principals creates a problem in principal-agent relationship. It is within this framework that supervisory and incentive alignment mechanisms that alter the risk orientation of agents are set up. Powerful incentives act upon agents as they exercise their judgment, particularly when the judgment can trigger a stock market response that will, in turn, affect the firm in numerous ways. The responsibility of agents is to manage earnings. From a principal's perspective not all of the methods used to achieve this goal are equally desirable. Agents can either increase productivity or they can strategically manipulate accounting choices to affect earnings. The latter method need not come with any associated changes in productivity. Consequently, there is misstatement of the financial results and position. The calculus of earnings management is considered within the confines of agents' treatment of risk. Using an Agency Theory framework, this study examines the techniques used by agents to manage and manipulate earnings. The study initially tests the hypothesis whether earnings are really managed. For this purpose two manipulation indices were developed and based upon these indices the phenomenology earnings management was considered.     

信息披露的作用 ——来自拍拍贷的经验证据

  信息披露对于降低信息不对称、减少市场的非效率的作用已经得到广泛的认可。因为中国依然缺乏完善的征信体系,P2P市场上也存在着更严重的信息不对称,所以信息披露在P2P借贷市场中发挥着更为重要的作用,值得学界和业界更深入的研究。         基于拍拍贷的数据,对信息披露在P2P市场上的作用进行研究。为了比较可验证的和不可验证的标准信息披露的不同作用,选择Logistic和Tobit等不同的回归模型以及不同的模型设置,实证检验其对于是否借款成功、是否违约、内部收益率的影响以及与借款利率之间的关系。         研究结果表明,信息披露对借款成功有正向影响,可验证的标准信息披露影响更大;信息披露具有的可验证性对借款成功有正向影响。同时,信息披露多的借款者更愿意提高借款利率,表明他们可能具有更低的信用。信息披露并不总是降低违约风险,部分信息及其可验证性反而导致更高的违约率。为了得到更可靠的结果,进一步对信息披露和内部收益率进行研究,结果同样表明,部分信息披露及其可验证性会带来更低的内部收益率。在稳健性检验中,上述结论依然不变。         研究结果丰富了信息披露、信息经济学、行为经济的研究内容,有利于平台设计更好的信息披露机制,即应控制披露信息条目,只披露能反映风险的信息,从而减少信息不对称,降低由投资人决策偏差导致的损失。同时,也为监管部门制定监管条例去纠正市场偏差和保护投资者权益提供了实证依据。     

Capacity Planning with Financial and Operational Hedging in Low‐Cost Countries

The authors of this article outline a capacity planning problem in which a risk‐averse firm reserves capacities with potential suppliers that are located in multiple low‐cost countries. While demand is uncertain, the firm also faces multi‐country foreign currency exposures. This study develops a mean‐variance model that maximizes the firm's optimal utility and derives optimal utility and optimal decisions in capacity and financial hedging size. The authors show that when demand and exchange rate risks are perfectly correlated, a risk‐averse firm, by using financial hedging, will achieve the same optimal utility as a risk‐neutral firm. In this study as well, a special case is examined regarding two suppliers in China and Vietnam. The results show that if a single supplier is contracted, financial hedging most benefits the highly risk‐averse firm when the demand and exchange rate are highly negatively related. When only one hedge is used, financial hedging dominates operational hedging only when the firm is very risk averse and the correlation between the two exchange rates have become positive. With both theoretical and numerical results, this study concludes that the two hedges are strategic tools and interact each other to maximize the optimal utility.     

成长性、现有资产与β关系的上市公司实证研究

在资本资产定价模型(CAPM)中,β(系统风险)是决定资产定价的唯一因素。以我国A股上市公司为研究样本,通过将资产风险β分解为成长性风险βG和现有资产风险βA2个部分,探讨了公司的成长性和现有资产对β的影响。研究结果表明,总体上我国证券市场中上市公司的βA显著地大于βA,但不同行业间差异显著。进一步分析显示,若公司规模越大、账面市值比越高、同所处行业的市场竞争程度越低,不仅βG对β的影响更大,而且βG与βA间的差异也越明显。这表明,在我国证券市场中,βG既是β取值大小的重要因素,同时也是风险的主要来源。