Changes in Irregular Emigration: A Field Report from Fuzhou

This paper is based on case studies in Fuzhou, China, with the aim of exploring the changes in Fuzhou’s irregular emigration activities. The findings indicate that due to changing socio‐economic and historical circumstances, a more legalizing tendency of irregular emigration from Fuzhou can be observed. Among these new developments are the following: less risk, along with the use of safer tactics, is now involved in the process of emigration; emigrants are better supported with resources such as financial support, network support and a higher level of education; “legal” status is cherished in the process of emigration, and fewer and fewer emigrants are likely to be victimized by organized smuggling groups; and migratory waves have decelerated and the passion for emigration has become both more rational and more sensible.     

Sending countries and the politics of emigration and destination

This article examines available means and activities of sending countries in their efforts to exert control over the "long-term temporary" emigration process. In the European case, the structure of migration has provided sending countries with ongoing channels for promoting their interests. In this picture the political dimensions of immigration are analyzed as epiphenomenal, dependent, or inconsequential. It is assumed that 1) state power directly correlates with economic power, and 2) economic and strategic power differences between states necessarily imply inequality in social and cultural terms. Although emigration may not serve the long-term "objective" interests of senders, it does provide a short-term safety value from the point of view of political managers. Both sending and receiving countries' interests are best served by a system of temporary labor migration, not permanent immigration. The receivers' ability to act according to narrow economic self-interest is restricted by a host of multilateral agreements that regulate and define the obligations and rights of the participants in international migration. Bilateral agreements not only specify the conditions of recruitment, employment, and family migration, they also provide a continuing basis for sending country influence throughout the migration process. Sending states that have a long history of emigration tend to have more developed and articulated emigration policies and commensurate institutional structures to channel and control the migration process in all stages--leaving, working abroad, and returning. The reluctance of Europe's immigrants to serve their social and political ties to their countries of origin is reinforced by the sending countries' activities aimed at insuring the continued long-term but temporary nature of migration.     

Managing Migration: The Role of Economic Instruments

This paper reviews economic policies and instruments available to the developed countries to reduce unwanted migration from developing countries, not all of which is irregular migration. Countries generally welcome legal immigrants and visitors, try to make it unnecessary for people to become refugees and asylum seekers, and try to discourage, detect, and remove irregular foreigners. There are three major themes: 1. There are as many reasons for migration as there are migrants, and the distinction between migrants motivated by economic and non–economic considerations is often blurred. Perhaps the best analogy is to a river – what begins as one channel that can be managed with a dam can become a series of rivulets forming a delta, making migration far more difficult to manage. 2. The keys to reducing unwanted migration lie mostly in emigration countries, but trade and investment fostered by immigration countries can accelerate economic and job growth in both emigration and immigration countries, and make trading in goods a substitute for economically motivated migration. Trade and economic integration had the effect of slowing emigration from Europe to the Americas, between southern Europe and northern Europe, and in Asian Tiger countries such as South Korea and Malaysia. However, the process of moving toward freer trade and economic integration can also increase migration in the short term, producing a migration hump, and requiring cooperation between emigration and immigration destinations so that the threat of more migration does not slow economic integration and growth. 3. Aid, intervention, and remittances can help reduce unwanted migration, but experience shows that there are no assurances that such aid, intervention, and remittances would, in fact, lead migrants to stay at home. The better use of remittances to promote development, which at US$65 billion in 1999 exceeded the US$56 billion in official development assistance (ODA), is a promising area for cooperation between migrants and their areas of origin, as well as emigration and immigration countries. There are two ways that differences between countries can be narrowed: migration alone in a world without free trade, or migration and trade in an open economy. Migration will eventually diminish in both cases, but there is an important difference between reducing migration pressures in a closed or open world economy. In a closed economy, economic differences can narrow as wages fall in the immigration country, a sure recipe for an anti–immigrant backlash. By contrast, in an open economy, economic differences can be narrowed as wages rise faster in the emigration country. Areas for additional research and exploration of policy options include: (1) how to phase in freer trade, investment, and economic integration to minimize unwanted migration; (2) strategies to increase the job–creating impacts of remittances, perhaps by using aid to match remittances that are invested in job–creating ways.     

Labor emigration and economic development

"This article is concerned with the extent to which labor migration is advantageous to the labor exporting country. It focuses on development consequences of labor emigration with a view toward the formulation of policies which can shape those consequences into a positive force for development, discussing a wide variety of potential costs and benefits generated by labor emigration. The issue of private versus public choice relative to emigration is examined, as [are] the major economic benefits and costs of labor emigration and the influence of development objectives on the valuation of these costs and benefits. Policies by which emigration countries may increase the benefits from labor emigration and reduce the costs are outlined."     

An overview of present and future emigration dynamics in South Asia

The author presents preliminary findings on selected aspects of the dynamics which govern emigration from and within the South Asian region comprised of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The paper attempts to identify some of the major reasons for observed migration flows and how the future may be envisaged especially in view of government programs, policies, and priorities. Contract labor migration is given special attention since it has become the predominant type of migration in the region. Sections consider a possible conceptual framework; measuring emigration pressure or potential; data and data problems; the volume of emigration since 1970; South Asian migrant workers; macro-level determinants of emigration; community, family, and individual factors; and sending country policies. The consequences of emigration are discussed in terms of the impacts upon the labor force and non-economic consequences. Observations for the future conclude the paper. Analysis of the dynamics of emigration from South Asia indicate an urgent need to improve data on various forms of emigration, that relevant officials in countries of origin have a longstanding concern about the exploitation of workers in sending as well as receiving countries, and the need to better understand the linkages between various factors relevant to the emigration process. An understanding of such linkages would allow for more realistic policies and planning for future emigration.     

Network autocorrelation models with egocentric data

Network autocorrelation models have been widely used for decades to model the joint distribution of the attributes of a network's actors. This class of models can estimate both the effect of individual characteristics as well as the network effect, or social influence, on some actor attribute of interest. Collecting data on the entire network, however, is very often infeasible or impossible if the network boundary is unknown or difficult to define. Obtaining egocentric network data overcomes these obstacles, but as of yet there has been no clear way to model this type of data and still appropriately capture the network effect on the actor attributes in a way that is compatible with a joint distribution on the full network data. This paper adapts the class of network autocorrelation models to handle egocentric data. The proposed methods thus incorporate the complex dependence structure of the data induced by the network rather than simply using ad hoc measures of the egos’ networks to model the mean structure, and can estimate the network effect on the actor attribute of interest. The vast quantities of unknown information about the network can be succinctly represented in such a way that only depends on the number of alters in the egocentric network data and not on the total number of actors in the network. Estimation is done within a Bayesian framework. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the estimation performance, and an egocentric data set is analyzed where the aim is to determine if there is a network effect on environmental mastery, an important aspect of psychological well-being.     

Redrawing the Contours of the Nation‐State in Uruguay? The Vicissitudes of Emigration Policy in the 2000s

This study analyzes Uruguay's recently launched emigration policy. It argues that the redrawing of the boundaries of the nation‐state along non‐territorial basis is still an incipient and contested process. The findings highlight some relatively under‐explored explanatory factors: emigrants' profile; political junctures requiring immediate commitment; the impact of rhetorical changes and post‐neoliberal projects; presidents as policy drivers and sources of inconsistencies; and institutional deficiencies, inertias, lack of reform, and society's conflictive notions of nation and belonging as brakes. The conclusions indicate that the sustainability of emigration policy is contingent on the state's progress toward internal reform and society's ability to acquire a greater voice and more organizational capacity. Exploring emigration policy characteristics and sources of setbacks in Uruguay unveils the inter‐mestic character of state transnational outreach efforts, qualifies and refines existing explanations, expands our understanding of new governance techniques, and provides some insights into the requirements for emigration policies to work effectively.     

EU Integration & Emigration Consequences: The Case of Lithuania

This paper analyses the causes, consequences, and policy implications of Lithuanian emigration following the country’s European Union (EU) accession in May 2004. After placing Lithuanian emigration in its historical context, the study assesses the recent dynamics, including the driving forces and characteristics of Lithuanian emigration at both the international and domestic level. The study finds that the primary determinants of this movement are both demand‐ and supply‐side factors. On the demand side, the labour shortages, decline in the working age population, and desire for cheaper labour in Western European countries function to attract Lithuanian labour. Concurrently, lower wages, higher unemployment, and the generally less developed economic conditions in Lithuania are encouraging Lithuanians to take advantage of the greater mobility that came with EU accession. The expanding networks linking migrants and potential migrants are facilitating this out‐migration, as well as the social mind‐set by which emigration is a perceived solution to socio‐economic difficulties. This study concludes that the consequences of this new emigration reality are mixed. The free movement of workers has helped to relieve pressure on the domestic labour market, drive down unemployment, place upward pressure on wages, and increase the remittances rate to Lithuania. However, concern is not ill‐founded; recent emigration has introduced labour market shortages, placed greater demographic pressure on the country, and increased the likelihood of brain drain. This study argues, therefore, that while Lithuanian emigration cannot and should not be stopped, Lithuania does have policy alternatives as a sending‐country that will help to mitigate the costs of emigration and maximize the benefits for the country’s long‐term development.     

Scientific Brain Drain and Human Capital Formation After the End of the Soviet Union

This article provides new empirical evidence on the impact of emigration on human capital formation by drawing upon the exodus of Russian scientists after the end of the Soviet Union. I create a novel panel data set based on scientific publications to identify former Soviet scientist émigrés and official Russian statistics on the production of PhDs aggregated at the regional and scientific field levels. I show that the emigration of scientists in the post‐Soviet period is associated with lower production of PhDs measured by admissions, graduates, and the number of students. The results suggest that emigration is not increasing investment in human capital at the PhD level. Possible explanations are that there is a lack of mentors to train the next generation of PhD students and that émigrés are acting as a channel for the younger generation to pursue PhD studies abroad.     

Violence,Networks, and International Migration from Colombia

Although Colombia is a major country of emigration, little is known about its citizens' motivations for migration. Social and economic conditions have been studied as determinants of migration, but violence has received less attention. We examine how social networks and violence function to promote emigration from Colombia by linking event‐history data from the Latin American Migration Project to external data on violence and economic conditions. We show that emigration is more likely to be initiated by those with higher education, those with network connections to migrants, and during periods of greater violence and increased police presence. Although violence acts powerfully to determine when people migrate, the geographic distribution of social capital determines where they go. Not surprisingly, migrants go to locations where people in their social networks are currently living or have been earlier.     

Multiple imputation for missing data in a longitudinal cohort study: a tutorial based on a detailed case study involving imputation of missing outcome data

Multiple imputation (MI), a two-stage process whereby missing data are imputed multiple times and the resulting estimates of the parameter(s) of interest are combined across the completed datasets, is becoming increasingly popular for handling missing data. However, MI can result in biased inference if not carried out appropriately or if the underlying assumptions are not justifiable. Despite this, there remains a scarcity of guidelines for carrying out MI. In this paper we provide a tutorial on the main issues involved in employing MI, as well as highlighting some common pitfalls and misconceptions, and areas requiring further development. When contemplating using MI we must first consider whether it is likely to offer gains (reduced bias or increased precision) over alternative methods of analysis. Once it has been decided to use MI, there are a number of decisions that must be made during the imputation process; we discuss the extent to which these decisions can be guided by the current literature. Finally we highlight the importance of checking the fit of the imputation model. This process is illustrated using a case study in which we impute missing outcome data in a five-wave longitudinal study that compared extremely preterm individuals with term-born controls.     

"A future not of riches but of comfort": the emigration of pauper children from Bristol to Canada, 1870-1915

This article examines the emigration of orphan and deserted children from Bristol to Canada in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This emigration was organised and financed by the local Boards of Guardians and, as such, raises important questions about the way in which state agencies cared for dependent children. The emigration of Poor Law children is explored in relation to debates about childcare, poverty, racial degeneration and imperialism. Of particular interest is the role played by women in promoting child emigration and the article considers the women's contribution to discourse and practice, both locally and nationally. The dynamics of emigration are analysed by using both British and Canadian sources and the tensions associated with pauper emigration are examined in some detail.     

Do transnational brokers always win? A multilevel analysis of social support

Migrants often maintain relationships with significant others located in their countries of origin, which results in having transnational interpersonal ties in addition to local ones. The majority of previous studies indicate that financial and social remittances flow from countries of immigration to the countries of emigration through migrants and their networks. However, less is known about who is involved in those exchanges, what kind of supportive resources flow within and across nation-state borders, and what level of individual cross-border engagement of migrants is related to those flows. We ask whether and how transnationality as an individual attribute, together with other personal, dyadic, and supradyadic characteristics, explain received social support. Drawing on data from 100 ego-centric networks collected from Turkish migrants in Germany, the results indicate that not only the dyadic level but also network structure, the position occupied by individuals in the network and their level of transnationality explain supportive resource flows within and across borders.     

Ireland: an "emigrant nursery" in the world economy

"This paper focuses on historical and contemporary aspects of Irish emigration and argues that a world-systems, comparative approach avoids the pitfalls of behaviouralism and national exceptionalism in conventional accounts of Irish emigration. It suggests that causes and consequences vary with social class, ethnic group and regional context, compares 'traditional' with 'new wave' emigration and argues that it is premature to talk of the 'Europeanisation' of Irish emigration." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Networks of action and events over time. A multilevel discrete-time event history model for longitudinal network data

Longitudinal network data recording the moment at which ties appear, change, or disappear are increasingly available. Event history models can be used to analyze the dynamics of time-stamped network data. This paper adapts the discrete-time event history model to social network data. A discrete-time event history model can easily incorporate a multilevel design and time-varying covariates. A multilevel design is needed to account for dependencies among ties and vertices, which should not be ignored in a small longitudinal network. Time-varying covariates are required to analyze network effects, that is, the impact of previous ties. In addition, a discrete-time event history model handles constraints on who can act or who can be acted upon in a straightforward way. The model can be estimated with multilevel logistic regression analysis, which is illustrated by an application to book reviews, so network evolution can be analyzed with a fairly standard statistical tool.     

EMIG 1.2: A Global Time Series of Annual Emigration Flows

EMIG 1.2 is a new, open‐source emigration database, based on over 6,500 observations covering 155 countries between 1850 and 2008, which can be used in both aggregate and TSCS analyses. Using comparisons, I show that EMIG 1.2 complements and extends alternative databases. Still, I need to solicit help from area specialists to broaden and deepen its coverage. In its aggregate form, I observe two important trends: (1) the level of emigration today is lower than it was prior to the First World War (when weighted by the number of countries or people); and (2) global emigration rates have been falling since 1994.     

Network analysis in the study of gender differences

This article aims at evaluating how network analysis can contribute to studies on gender differences as also considered in different ethnic contexts. The article shows how the concept of network can be used in new ways and discusses the theoretical foundations of the two main research traditions in this field: (1) on one hand, the anthropological development of social networks within the framework of a situational and processual analytical interpretation; (2) on the other hand, the development of the mathematical and quantitative analysis of the relations between the individual units of the social system, within the framework of a structural analytical interpretation. The paper analyses some of the most interesting contributions of each tradition to show their differences with regard to theoretical elaboration, investigation perspectives and objects, and methods and techniques. It ends by identifying the areas in gender research to which each research tradition can be most appropriately applied.     

The Mass Emigration Context of Lithuania: Patterns and Policy Options

Lithuania represents one of the rare cases in which a state with relatively high standards for maintaining population statistics is experiencing mass emigration. In light of the policy initiatives undertaken by the Lithuanian government to address the issue of emigration, this study aims to improve our understanding of how, in this mass emigration context, emigration events are connected to specific socio‐economic characteristics of individuals and variation in local socio‐economic conditions. We analyse census and vital registration data covering the whole working‐age population of Lithuania during the period 2011‐2012. Our findings indicate that when assessing the likelihood of emigration events, individual‐level characteristics such as employment status, educational attainment, and prior migration experience are highly relevant. However, the importance of these characteristics differs by gender. We also detect considerable spatial variation in emigration rates across Lithuanian municipalities. Our outcomes provide new insights for the development of cohesive migration policies in Lithuania.