Employment effects of trade in intermediate and final goods: An empirical assessment

The steady growth of international trade in intermediate goods and services has made the relationship between trade and the international division of labour more complex. For 39 countries, the author decomposes the employment effects of international trade into five components, namely, the labour content of – or employment generated by – (1) exports; (2) imports; (3) the import content of exports; (4) the export content of imports; and (5) the third‐country import content of imports. He shows that in 2009, trade in intermediate goods accounted for some 88 million jobs – 14 per cent of all jobs generated by international trade – while the import content of exports accounted for 44 million jobs.     

Foreign trade barriers and jobs in global supply chains

This article uses ILO global supply chain job estimates to study the impact on domestic jobs of foreign barriers to trade in goods and services. Empirical analysis largely confirms predictions derived from a theoretical model calibrated to WIOD data for 2000 and 2011. Barriers to trade in manufacturing and services are both found to have a cross‐border impact on jobs in their own sector and spill‐over effects in other sectors, the latter becoming stronger over time. This article shows the labour market consequences of the increased interconnectedness of countries and sectors through global supply chains, which suggests that trade policy can have significant external effects on foreign labour markets.     

服务贸易出口退税研究

当前,服务贸易蓬勃发展日益成为各国贸易竞争的新领域和世界经济增长的新引擎。我国在服务贸易发展潜力巨大但相对于货物贸易仍明显滞后的情况下,把传统的主要针对货物贸易的出口退税政策扩大到服务贸易,势在必行。服务贸易出口退税符合WTO基本原则,是国际通行的做法,有很多国际经验值得借鉴。我国服务贸易出口退税政策的制订,在遵循属地管理、征退对等等四项原则的前提下,可实现扩大出口规模、优化出口结构;减轻财政压力、平衡财权事权;平衡国际收支、优化产业结构的总体目标。据此,提出实现服务贸易退税政策目标的路径和对策。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Services Trade Negotiations and Development: The Case of Tourism in the Caribbean

This article examines whether and how developing countries can use services trade negotiations to increase the amount of inward FDI conducive to development. It reviews how services trade rules can affect inward FDI, and employs panel data analysis with innovative use of instrumental variables in the tourism sectors of 9 Caribbean countries during 1997–2003. It argues that Caribbean countries may want to signal openness to inward FDI in GATS, while maintaining a degree of flexibility in the use of policy measures; in the current negotiations with the EU on Economic Partnership Agreements, the focus could be on emphasising the development dimension.     

Expanding and Diversifying South Mediterranean Exports through Trade Facilitation

This article explores whether trade facilitation – i.e. improved and simplified trade procedures – could be an important part of the reform agenda of the Barcelona Process. Adopting a Southern perspective by focusing on exports to the European Union (EU) from non‐EU Mediterranean countries, it tests whether the efficiency of trade procedures affects (i) bilateral volumes of exports and (ii) the number of products exported. The findings suggest that trade facilitation could lead to substantially increased export volumes and export diversification.     

Corporate social responsibility and conflicts of interest in the alcohol and gambling industries: a post‐political discourse?

The corporate pursuit of social goals – known as Corporate Social Responsibility or ‘CSR’ – has been subject to critique on a number of grounds. However, a hitherto underexplored potential consequence of CSR has been suggested in a recent paper by C. Garsten and K. Jacobsson (‘Post‐Political Regulation: Soft Power and Post‐political Visions in Global Governance’ (2013), Critical Sociology 39: 421–37). They suggest that CSR is part of an international trend towards ‘post‐political’ governance discourses, where an emphasis on different actors’ common goals obscures conflicts of interest, subverting the open political conflict necessary for a well‐functioning democracy. This paper examines whether such post‐political discourses – including an outright denial of conflict of interest – can be found within the alcohol and gambling industries, where conflicts of interest are likely to be particularly acute given the addictive nature of the goods/services in question. Based on interviews with CSR professionals in these industries in Italy, the UK, and at EU‐level, we do indeed find evidence of a post‐political discourse. In these discourses, alcohol/gambling industry staff deny potential conflicts of interest on the basis that any small benefits from sales to a small number of addicts are seen to be outweighed by the reputational damage that addicts cause. Crucially, however, this coexists with another, less post‐political discourse, where addictions CSR professionals emphasize ‘common ground’ as a basis for CSR, while accepting some instances of possible conflict of interest. Here interviewees make considerable efforts to differentiate good (sustainable) from bad (short‐term) self‐interest in order to stress the genuineness of their own actions. We conclude the paper by considering whether CSR embedded within a ‘common ground’ discourse still hides conflicts of interests and subverts democratic debate, or overcomes the problems identified by Garsten and Jacobsson.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND LABOR‐MARKET DISCRIMINATION

Discrimination reduces the matching probability and output in the skill‐intensive differentiated‐product sector so that discrimination‐induced comparative advantage may overshadow technological comparative advantage in determining the pattern of trade. Trade liberalization generates a decrease in the skilled‐worker wage gap in the country that is an exporter of goods from the simple sector but increases it in the country that is a net exporter of differentiated products. Trade liberalization has an opposite effect on firms. In the country that is an exporter of simple goods, trade liberalization reduces the profits of the nondiscriminatory firms by more than those of the discriminatory firms. (JEL F16, F66, J71)     

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN GOODS AND SERVICES ACROSS THE HETEROGENEOUS STATES OF AMERICA

In this study, we examine the importance of multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in goods and services for U.S. States during 1980–2007 by applying the dual growth accounting framework. We find that MFP growth was relatively high and converged in the goods sector, but was low and did not converge in services. Although low growth in MFP in services was due to declining real user cost, particularly in real estate services, the lack of convergence itself was due to variation in wage growth. We also document that while the gap between productivity and wage growth was higher in goods, the two series were more strongly correlated in services. Finally, states with higher initial human capital experienced higher growth in both sectors. (JEL O47, R11)     

The role of privacy concerns in the sharing economy

Internet-mediated sharing is growing quickly. Millions of users around the world share personal services and possessions with others ? often complete strangers. Shared goods can amount to substantial financial and immaterial value. Despite this, little research has investigated privacy in the sharing economy. To fill this gap, we examine the sharing–privacy nexus by exploring the privacy threats associated with Internet-mediated sharing. Given the popularity of sharing services, users seem quite willing to share goods and services despite the compounded informational and physical privacy threats associated with such sharing. We develop and test a framework for analyzing the effect of privacy concerns on sharing that considers institutional and social privacy threats, trust and social-hedonic as well as monetary motives.     

THE RISE OF SERVICES,DEINDUSTRIALIZATION, AND THE LENGTH OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Economic recovery is longer in service‐providing economies than in goods‐producing economies. Services cannot be produced and inventoried ahead of demand; goods can. We are the first to document this macroeconomic repercussion of the sectoral shift away from the secondary sector toward the tertiary sector, that is, of deindustrialization and the rise of services. We distinguish between nontradable services and all other sectors, using U.S. state‐level employment data for post‐1960 recessions. Concerns over the endogeneity of services are addressed in two ways: by using 3‐year pre‐recession averages of sector shares, and separately by invoking instrumental variables. Our results are robust to alternative specifications. The increase in service production and deindustrialization in the United States over the last half‐century lengthens the trough‐to‐peak employment recovery from recessions by about 40%. (JEL E24, E32, L80, N12)     

Inshopping by Residents of Small Communities1

With improvements in transportation and communication, rural consumers no longer are limited to their local trade center and personal factors become more important in shaping consumer patterns. With data from residents in two small rural communities in northwestern Missouri, this study examines the effects of consumers' socioeconomic characteristics, personal location situations, and community satisfaction on buying within the local community (inshopping) versus in other communities (outshopping) for selected goods and services. Age is the socioeconomic variable most strongly related to inshopping. Residing in the center versus open country, jobholders outside the community, and residing in the more viable community are related to shopping for certain of the goods and services as is satisfaction with the community. Location remains an important influence on shopping behavior but it needs to be conceptualized differently.     

HIERARCHICAL TRADE

Commodity trading is typically organized hierarchically: Large‐scale trade takes place at the global price system while individuals trade at local price systems within their countries. Agencies or trading houses establish the link between these different market places. In this paper, we devise a framework to study this type of hierarchical trade. We identify the free trade and the autarky equilibrium as polar cases. We show that no other two‐stage market equilibria exist if the commodity space is two‐dimensional. An example demonstrates that other, so‐called intermediate equilibria exist for three‐dimensional commodity spaces. We then provide an explicit construction of special classes of intermediate equilibria. Moreover, we study the consequences when some countries control the agency that organizes trade at the global level and we analyze the role of international goods arbitrage. Finally, we show that profit‐maximizing agencies may not promote free trade outcomes. (JEL D43, D50, F10)     

Regulatory fit effects on perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance

Paying taxes can be considered a contribution to the welfare of a society. But even though tax payments are redistributed to citizens in the form of public goods and services, taxpayers often do not perceive many benefits from paying taxes. Information campaigns about the use of taxes for financing public goods and services could increase taxpayers’ understanding of the importance of taxes, strengthen their perception of fiscal exchange and consequently also increase tax compliance. Two studies examined how fit between framing of information and taxpayers’ regulatory focus affects perceived fiscal exchange and tax compliance. Taxpayers should perceive the exchange between tax payments and provision of public goods and services as higher if information framing suits their regulatory focus. Study 1 supported this hypothesis for induced regulatory focus. Study 2 replicated the findings for chronic regulatory focus and further demonstrated that regulatory fit also affects tax compliance. The results provide further evidence for findings from previous studies concerning regulatory fit effects on tax attitudes and extend these findings to a context with low tax morale.     

Failed Securitisation Moves during the 2015 ‘Migration Crisis’

The EU has tried to distinguish itself as respecting human rights in its migration policies. In 2015, mass drownings at sea of refugees from war‐torn and despotic countries like Syria and Eritrea started to rise with the end of Mare Nostrum, the Italian navy's search and rescue operation in the Mediterranean. One EU response was to declare a war on “criminal gangs” of smugglers and traffickers, reportedly responsible for the surge in refugee deaths. Equating smugglers’ activities with a “new slave trade”, this “securitization move” failed to gain legitimacy from EU publics and media. Military solutions to refugee flight continued to be proposed, and a second securitization move continued to target smugglers and traffickers, but this time the “referent object” became the West itself, and the EU.     

Allocational and distributional aspects of future immigration to Western Europe

"This article shows that an analysis of the impacts of immigration [in Western Europe] has to be divided into allocational and distributional aspects. From an allocational point of view, like free trade in goods, services and capital, migration is welfare-improving as long as marginal productivities of labor are not equalized worldwide. From a distributional point of view, however, the immigration society has to bear the effects of sharing its common public goods and its social values with the new immigrants. Free immigration will only be allowed if the allocational welfare gains exceed the distributional welfare losses. According to this rule of thumb, a guideline for an efficient migration policy is sketched."     

Responses to global challenges: trends in aid‐financed global public goods

Based on four decades (1973–2013) of OECD‐Development Assistance Committee aid to developing countries, this article aims to show aid‐financed global public goods trends, their changing composition and their main drivers. In particular, a constant increase in the share of aid‐financed global public goods and a shift towards weighted‐sum and weakest‐link global goods are observed. Economic conditions, imitation effects, global engagement and domestic spending result as the main drivers of donors’ demand for aid‐financed global public goods. Besides, a certain complementarity in the provision of global goods plays a role, especially in European countries and Japan, partially easing the prognosis for the collective action problems related to global goods     

AN OPEN‐ECONOMY MODEL WITH MONEY,ENDOGENOUS SEARCH,AND HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS

This paper describes a new monetary open‐economy model where firms have market power due to search frictions in the goods market, and endogenous search effort by consumers mitigates this market power. The optimal inflation rate generally depends positively on the cost of search effort, the cost of firm entry, and the cost of trade. Higher inflation always improves a country's terms‐of‐trade against its trading partners. I also characterize a general class of matching processes which offer a novel approach to modeling firm sales. (JEL D43, E40, F12)     

The New European Trade Preferences: Does ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) Help the Poor?

The EU’s offer of tariff‐ and quota‐free access for all exports from the Least Developed Countries (for Everything but Arms) has been welcomed as part of the WTO‐led initiative to assist these countries. But it is not without problems. As the Least Developed compete more with other developing countries than with the EU, trade is likely to be diverted from other, sometimes poorer, countries. (‘Least Developed’ is an official classification, not a neutral measure of poverty.) EBA contradicts and impedes the EU’s policies of reciprocity and promotion of regions: it not only creates an alternative trade regime, but seems unilaterally to break existing agreements. The article concludes that the policy was adopted for essentially political, not developmental, motives.     

Economic Partnership Agreements: A ‘Historic Step’ Towards a ‘Partnership of Equals’?

This article argues that the EPAs initialled between the EU and less than half of the ACP countries do not represent a ‘historic step’ in EU‐ACP relations, but are the outcome of asymmetric power relations. Many ACP countries submitted hastily drawn up liberalisation schedules that did not consider whether their commitments were in line with those of their neighbours — with significant implications for regional integration processes. Further, the enforcement of EPAs is unlikely in some cases, given the decreasing attractiveness of the EU market and the Commission's dwindling capacity to sanction non‐compliance by withdrawing preferences. If the EU wants to see EPAs implemented, it is vital that the process and outcome are owned and supported by both sides.