SOCIOLOGY AND THE CRISIS OF THE PRESENT (2007 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS)

This essay attempts to take a broad view of the historical forces that have shaped the discipline of sociology and continue to shape it. It is organized around the concept of crisis, arguing that sociology has been produced by crises and that it has been defined by its responses to crises. It identifies an ethic of control and manipulation as a chief product of 19th century responses. It suggests that we have once again entered a period of disruption and rapid change, and that the current challenge of sociology is to situate ourselves, reflexively, within a dense web of philosophical, psychological, social, biological, and environmental linkages, recognizing that we can never see the network in its entirety because we ourselves are nodes within it. However, the ethic of control and manipulation that we have inherited from earlier sociological responses often prevents sociologists from developing an immanent, reflexive, and ecological approach to the crisis of the present that would enable us to place ourselves within this web.     

THE IMPACT OF TELEVISED SPEECHES AND FOREIGN TRAVEL ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to theuse of political drama by the president, with the most discretionaryforms of drama—speeches and foreign travel—receivingmuch scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdomwhich asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel bythe president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uniformlypositive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance,and (3) can therefore be used as a strategy for influencingthe president's approval ratings, a vital resource for the modernpresident. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate this conventionalwisdom and thus assess the value of televised speeches and foreigntravel as influences on presidential approval. The paper firstdefines political drama and casts the conventional wisdom inthe form of three propositions. It next develops a researchstrategy for evaluating these propositions in an appropriatemanner. Finally, the paper tests the propositions. The resultscast considerable doubt on the conventional wisdom and leadto the conclusion that the use of political drama is not anall-purpose strategy guaranteed to halt declines or replenishsizable losses of presidential approval.     

1998 MSSA PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: TECHNOLOGY,INNOVATION, AND HIGHER EDUCATION: THE ROLE OF SOCIOLOGY IN THE 21st CENTURY

Higher education is undergoing radical change as we move into the 21st Century. The challenges are both external and internal. Using a sociological perspective to consider these challenges can transform them into opportunities and place sociology in a leadership role in the process of change.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF LEGAL FORM OF ORGANIZATION ON SMALL CORPORATION EXTERNAL FINANCING

This article quantitatively evaluates the impact of legal form of organization (LFO) choices, C versus S corporation, on small business external financing. A treatment effect model is formulated and estimated to examine the relationship between corporate types and chances of obtaining external financing. The estimation takes into account self‐selection bias associated with LFO choices. This article finds that LFO choices mainly affect small corporations' access to external equity capital, but have no significant impact on loan financing. Specifically, when a small corporation selects the C corporate legal form, the probability of obtaining new external equity is eight times higher compared to when it selects the S corporate legal form. Furthermore, the results suggest that better access to external equity investments, loosening business capital constraints, leads to better growth prospects for small C corporations. These empirical results have important macro‐economic implications on corporate financial and fiscal policies. (JEL G32, G38)     

2006 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS WATER MARKETS IN THE WEST: PRICES, TRADING, AND CONTRACTUAL FORMS

Rising urban and environmental demand for water has created growing pressure to reallocate water from traditional agricultural uses. The evolution of water markets has been more complicated than those for other resources. In this paper, we first explain these differences by examining water rights and regulatory issues. Second, we place our research in the context of the economics literature on water marketing. Third, we present new, comprehensive data on prices and the extent, nature, and timing of water transfers across 12 western states from 1987 to 2005. We find that prices are higher for agriculture-to-urban trades versus within-agriculture trades, in part, reflecting the differences in marginal values between the two uses. Prices for urban use are also growing relative to agricultural use. Markets are responding in that the number of agriculture-to-urban transactions is rising, whereas the number of agriculture-to-agriculture transfers is not. Further, there is a shift from using short-term leases to using multiyear leases of water and permanent sales of water rights. This pattern underscores the need to consider the amounts of water obligated over time rather than examining only annual flows in assessing the quantities of water traded as is the common practice in the literature. Considering water obligated over time, termed committed water, we find significantly more is transferred and the direction of trading is different than if the focus is on annual flows. Finally, the data reveal considerable variation in water trading across the states. ( JEL Q2, N5, L5, K3)     

ALLIANCES IN THE SHADOW OF CONFLICT

Victorious alliances often fight about the spoils of war. This article presents an experiment on the determinants of whether alliances break up and fight internally after having defeated a joint enemy. First, if peaceful sharing yields an asymmetric rent distribution, this increases the likelihood of fighting. In turn, anticipation of the higher likelihood of internal fight reduces the alliance's ability to succeed against the outside enemy. Second, the option to make nonbinding nonaggression declarations between alliance members does not make peaceful settlement within the alliance more likely. Third, higher differences in the alliance players' contributions to alliance effort lead to more internal conflict and more intense fighting. (JEL D72, D74)     

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE SHADOW OF CONFLICT

Appropriation possibilities significantly alter economic fundamentals in a production and exchange economy. This is the primary lesson of our model, which combines Ricardian trade and the potential for predator/prey behavior. The model shows how conflict can be subdued by mutual gains from trade, but at a resource cost that modifies the exchange itself. On the other hand, it identifies conditions wherein appropriation incentives are so strong that specialized production and trade are precluded altogether. The model also reveals a new way to think about and measure the gains from trade. ( JEL C72, D51, D74, F10)     

UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE ON FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS: THE ROLE OF BACKGROUND RISK SHARING

We investigate how changes in marital status affect financial investments and how these effects vary with background risk. We use detailed register‐based panel data and difference‐in‐differences estimators to benchmark common unobserved influences on financial investments. Women increase the fraction of wealth invested in stocks after marriage and decrease it after divorce, whereas men show the opposite behavior. Households whose joint labor income risk is reduced more by marriage have a higher increase in their exposure to risky assets in marriage. Thus income risk sharing in the household is important for financial risk taking and investment responses to marital transitions. (JEL G11, J12, J16, D14)     

THE QUANTITATIVE IMPORTANCE OF OPENNESS IN DEVELOPMENT

This paper deals with a classic development question: how can the process of economic development—transition from stagnation in a traditional technology to industrialization and prosperity with a modern technology—be accelerated? Lewis (1954) and Rostow (1956) argue that the pace of industrialization is limited by the rate of capital formation which in turn is limited by the savings rate of workers close to subsistence. We argue that access to capital goods in the world market can be quantitatively important in speeding up the transition. We develop a parsimonious open‐economy model where traditional and modern technologies coexist (a dual economy in the sense of Lewis 1954). We show that a decline in the world price of capital goods in an open economy increases the rate of capital formation and speeds up the pace of industrialization relative to a closed economy that lacks access to cheaper capital goods. In the long run, the investment rate in the open economy is twice as high as in the closed economy and the per capita income is 23% higher. (JEL O11, F43, O14)     

UNDERSTANDING THE COSTS OF CONSUMER DURABLE ADJUSTMENTS

This article examines whether adjustment frictions help account for the patterns of household consumption expenditures observed in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, namely, that the variance of log durable expenditure is four times larger than that of log nondurable expenditure for annual data and this gap substantially widens for quarterly data. Estimating a structural model of household consumption with nondurable and durable goods with the simulated method of moments, I find that the fixed costs associated with durable adjustments are important in matching the cross‐sectional moments. Using the estimated model, I also examine the response of nondurable and durable expenditures to income shocks. (JEL D12, D91, E21)     

THE RISE OF PRESIDENTIAL POLLING THE NIXON WHITE HOUSE IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This article traces the institutional development of presidentialpolling of public opinion. We suggest that Kennedy, Johnson,and especially Nixon developed the institution of the presidencyto include a "public opinion apparatus"—an operation thatwas centralized in the White House and devoted to assemblingpublic opinion data and conducting extensive public relationsactivities. According to interviews with former officials andarchival records, this apparatus had its roots in Kennedy's1960 presidential campaign, but during the Johnson and Nixonpresidencies it developed into a regular and enduring institutionfor connecting presidential activity with public opinion.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS IN DIVORCE DECISIONS

This paper studies the linkage between the expected financial consequences of divorce and the decision to become divorced. A standard choice-theoretic model predicts that the probability of divorce will be negatively related to the financial opportunity cost of divorce. This opportunity cost is measured as the difference in the present values of the future income streams that a married woman might expect if she were to stay married rather than become divorced. Our empirical results indicate that the expected short-term financial consequences are a better predictor of subsequent divorce than are the longer-term consequences.     

THE ARTICULATION OF PROJECT WORK: AN ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS

This article offers a theoretical framework or model for understanding how work within projects is articulated. A distinction is drawn between articulation of work and a more inclusive organizational process , termed the "articulation process." The theoretical model includes several related concepts that pertain to numerous interlocking and sequential elements of the total work. These include work processes, types of work, and interactional processes. The model avoids assuming a tightly integrated organization of work; rather, it represents an extension of the negotiated order approach to organizations. A discussion of variations in projects revolves around two important dimensions of projects. The article closes with a discussion of extreme disruptions in project work flow, as well as some general considerations about the importance of focusing on articulation in organizations.