Demographic Efficiency: Concept and Estimation

The concept of demographic efficiency is proposed and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is introduced as a method for determining which countries are demographically efficient. While the purpose of the paper is primarily to introduce the concept and the method, several simple examples are used for purposes of illustration. The first two explore how efficiently countries have converted their level of development (the input) into male and female life expectancy at birth (the outputs). The second two reverse the postulated relationship, treating life expectancies as inputs reflecting general health status of a population, and level of development as the output. Countries are said to be efficient if they have achieved the maximum output observable for a given level of input, or if they have minimized the inputs needed to achieve a prescribed level of output. Together, the efficient cases form an efficiency frontier. DEA, a form of linear programming, also permits the degree of inefficiency of countries lying behind this frontier to be measured by calculating the extent of the output slacks that are present. Output slacks are the shortfalls in the level of performance that could have been achieved given the inputs available, and may themselves be treated as independent variables in explorations of the sources of demographic inefficiency. One example of such an exploration is offered—an attempt to account for shortfalls in female life expectancy, given levels of development.     

Tribal membership requirements and the demography of ‘old’ and ‘new’ Native Americans

This paper examines the twentieth-century population recovery of Native Americans with reference to urbanization, intermarriage, and differing definitions of the Native American population from census and tribal enrollment data. The recent increase in the Native American population reflected in regular US decennial censuses since 1960 is discussed in terms of changing self-identification of individuals as Native American. Also discussed are criteria for enrollment in Native American tribes, particularly blood quantum requirements. Census enumerations are compared with tribal enrollment data, and it is illustrated that a large proportion of those identifying as Native American in the census are not enrolled in Native American tribes. Special attention is given to how Native American tribal enrollment criteria might impact future population size.     

Assessing the Impact of Proposed Bank Mergers on Rural Communities: A Case Study of Bbritish Columbia

The restructuring of financial markets and financial institutions through bank mergers has been accompanied in many countries by concerns about the resulting `geography of finance. In Canada, two proposed mergers involving four of the largest banks have raised concerns about the possibleimpacts of the proposed mergers on the access to financial institutions in rural Canada. This paper assesses the potential impact of the proposed mergers on the geography of finance in rural communities in British Columbia. The methodological choices which must be made to frame such an anlysis are discussed and include choices related to the definitions of `accessibility, the `industry, a `competitive industry, a `bank branch and a `community. A new Index is devised to measure the vulnerability of rural communities to post-merger bank branch closures. It is concluded that the bank mergers will, if approved, have significant negative impacts for the accessibility of the banking system in rural British Columbia. It is also suggested that Canada needs to examine establishing a wider regulatory framework which addresses the issue of accessibility on a longer term basis.     

Implications of genetic variation within and between human populations

Human variation is extensive both within and between populations. This variation affects all traits, including the susceptibility to disease and responses to the environment. For social and political reasons, we tend to think of our species or our own national population as being divided into meaningful groups variously called by such terms as races, or ethnic groups, and there is often an implicit assumption that these groups are relatively homogeneous within and very different between. Examples are given to show that there are major differences in the frequency of genetic susceptibility to various diseases between some such groups, but that the amount of variation among individuals is extensive even within such groups. Population subdivision can be useful for studying disease, but human variation is a general phenomenon tied to groups via their population and geographic history, not value-based categorical differences.     

A crime based analysis and classification of 729 American cities

Thirty social indicators, consisting of crime rates and variables which may be regarded theoretically as correlates of crime, are factor analyzed for 729 incorporated American cities with a minimum population of 25000. Factors associated with crime, poverty, native-born status, city revenue, residential stability, home construction, city size, and population age are identified. The data matrix is partitioned in order to identify high crime and low crime cities. The cities in each category are then subjected to cluster analysis on the basis of the seven socioeconomic factors, and the resulting groups are investigated further in order to identify distinctive clusters and underlying patterns of social conditions. A group of model low crime communities is identified — virtually all were incorporated white noose suburbs of metropolitan areas. Residential instability and large population size are associated with two of the high crime groups, which include stereotypical crime problem cities such as Detroit, Chicago, and Kansas City. The member cities constituting each of the eight groups are documented, and the policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Is There a Trade-Off Between Economic Efficiency and a Generous Welfare State? A Comparison of Best Cases of `The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism’

A crucial debate in policy-making as well as academiccircles is whether there is a trade-off betweeneconomic efficiency and the size/generosity of thewelfare state. One way to contribute to this debate isto compare the performance of best cases ofdifferent types of state. Arguably, in the decade198594, the US, West Germany and the Netherlands were best cases best economic performers in whatEsping-Andersen (1990) calls the three worlds ofwelfare capitalism. The US is a liberalwelfare-capitalist state, West Germany a corporatiststate, and the Netherlands is social democratic in itstax-transfer system, although not its labor marketpolicies. These three countries had rates of economicgrowth per capita as high or higher than other richcountries of their `type, and the lowest rates ofunemployment.At a normative or ideological level the three types ofstate have the same goals but prioritise themdifferently. The liberal state prioritises economicgrowth and efficiency, avoids work disincentives, andtargets welfare benefits only to those in greatestneed. The corporatist state aims to give priority tosocial stability, especially household incomestability, and social integration. The socialdemocratic welfare state claims high priority forminimising poverty, inequality and unemployment.Using ten years of panel data for each country, weassess indicators of their short (one year), medium(five year) and longer term (ten year) performance inachieving economic and welfare goals. Overall, in thistime period, the Netherlands achieved the bestperformance on the welfare goals to which it gavepriority, and equalled the other two states on most ofthe goals to which they gave priority. This resultsupports the view that there is no necessary trade-offbetween economic efficiency and a generous welfarestate.The three panel studies are the American Panel Studyof Income Dynamics (PSID), the German Socio-EconomicPanel (GSOEP) and the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel(SEP). They all have samples of over 15,000 and arethe only national panels to have run for tenconsecutive years or more, so making it possible toassess the longer term performance ofwelfare-capitalist states.     

Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

Three Centuries of Global Population Growth: A Spatial Referenced Population (Density) Database for 1700–2000

The Earths surface has changed considerably over the past centuries. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1700s, humans from the Old World started to colonize the New World. The colonization processes lead to major changes in global land use and land cover. Large parts of the original land cover have been altered (e.g., deforestation), leading to extra emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere and enhancing global climate change. The spatial and temporal aspects are still not very well known. More and more global integrated environmental assessments concerning global sustainability require long time series of global change indicators, of which population is an important one. This study presents an update of the geo-referenced historical population maps for the period 1700–2000, part of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), which can be used in integrated models of global change and/or global sustainability.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

A critique of the Urban Institute's claims of cost free immigration: Early findings confirmed

This text addresses the critiques from the Urban Institute and other immigrant advocacy groups concerning the findings of an earlier study, The Cost of Immigration released in the summer of 1993. That study showed that the public costs associated withimmigrants settling here since 1970 amounted, in 1992, to $42.5 billion more in services and assistance than the $20.2 billion which immigrants paid in taxes (Huddle, 1993). The updated assessment takes into account previously unavailable figures and revises some methods and assumptions used in the earlier work. The updated bottom line is fully consistent with initial findings on immigrant costs for 1992.     

From stagnation to growth: Revisiting three historical regimes

This paper explores the role of mortality in the long transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. An endogenous child mortality rate that varies inversely with parents standard of living is added to the framework in Galor and Weil (AER 2000). In our version of the model, the transition from stagnation to growth, triggered by an exogenous shock to technology, comprises a mortality revolution succeeded by a demographic transition.This paper has benefitted from discussions with and suggestions made by KarlGunnar Persson, Christian Schultz, and, particularly, Christian Groth at the University of Copenhagen. I gratefully acknowledge the insightful criticisms of two anonymous referees, and I thank Paula Madsen for English proof-reading. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

How Do Classes Make Use of Their Incomes?

Against the backdrop of occasional claims by social scientists that class analysis is no longer relevant this article will study the consumption patterns of different classes. Two hypotheses are derived and tested. These are to assume that classes' consumption differences are due to processes of social closure, or are of a cultural kind. This is investigated using a Swedish family expenditure data-set from 1992. The focus is on classes' different uses of their incomes regarding basic expenditures, expenditures on non-durables and ownership of durables. The most striking result is that 'higher' classes tend to spend a great deal of money on activities outside the home, 'appearance' and information, while other classes' consumption resembles the 'higher' classes, to different degrees. Moreover, the class hierarchy, constructed theoretically from employment factors, resembles a hierarchy constructed from similarities in patterns of consumption. The main conclusion is that class matters, in interesting ways, for consumption, though there are also other powerful factors. The closure hypothesis receives support, even though a combination of the two hypotheses seems sound.     

Fertility Policy and Employment: Implications from the Former Soviet Union

Using individual-level survey data that were collected in Russia in 1993, we analyze the fertility-employment relationship for a sample of urban women who bore children during the Soviet era. Although some Russian policy makers advocate policies that reduce female employment to stimulate fertility, we find little empirical support to ensure success of these policies. Specifically, we find no connection between employment and fertility for our sample of Russian females, perhaps because of their historic, mandated commitment to the labor market. Instead, we find that demographics and attitudes influence fertility decision making. These results, in combination with the findings that our sample of Russian women hold more traditional attitudes toward family and egalitarian attitudes toward work than similar American women, suggest that policies to stimulate fertility by reducing employment may not be effective for women raised during the Soviet era unless a dramatic shift in attitudes away from a strong work commitment also occurs.     

China's ‘later’ marriage policy and its demographic consequences

Using data from China's One-Per-Thousand Fertility Survey conducted in 1982, a cohort analysis is carried out to estimate the demographic consequences of the later marriage policy implemented in the People's Republic of China. The findings show that the later marriage policy had a strong positive effect on mean age at first marriage and first birth but a negative impact on the length of the first-birth interval, suggesting that the depressing effects on fertility of the administratively enforced postponement of marriage are more or less offset by adjustments over the first-birth interval by Chinese couples.     

Measuring the Effect of Tourism Services on Travelers’ Quality of Life: Further Validation

Neal, Sirgy and Uysal (1999) developed a model and a measure to capture the effect of tourism services on travelers quality of life (QOL). They hypothesized that travelers overall life satisfaction is derived from satisfaction with the primary life domains (e.g., family, job, health). Specifically, overall life satisfaction is derived from two sources of satisfaction, namely satisfaction with non-leisure life domains and satisfaction with leisure life. Satisfaction with leisure life is derived from satisfaction with leisure experiences that take place at home and satisfaction with travel/tourism experiences. Satisfaction with travel/tourism experiences results from satisfaction with trip reflections of the traveler (e.g., what the traveler remembers regarding perceived freedomfrom control, perceived freedom from work, involvement, arousal, mastery, and spontaneity experienced during the trip) and satisfaction with travel/tourism services. Satisfaction with travel/tourism services was hypothesized further to be derived from satisfaction with the service aspects of travel/tourism phases – pre-trip services, en-route services, destination services, and return-trip services. The model was tested using a study of university faculty and staff. The original model was extended by hypothesizing the moderation effect of length of stay. Specifically, we hypothesized that the relationshipsin the model are likely to be more evident in relation to travelers who have more time to experience the tourism services than those who do not. A survey of 815 consumers of travel/tourism services who reside in Southwest Virginia was conducted. As predicted, the data confirmed hypotheses as established in the original model. Satisfaction with tourism services affects travelers QOL through the mediating effects of satisfaction with travel/tourism experiences, and satisfaction with leisure life. Furthermore, the moderating effect of length of stay was confirmed by the data. In sum, this replication and extension study provided additional validational support of the original tourism services satisfaction measure in relation to QOL-related measures.     

Family planning program effects on contraceptive use in Morocco, 1992–1995

This study illustrates the use of panel data and a fixed-effects estimator to investigate the impact of family planning program inputs on contraceptive utilization in Morocco during the 1992–1995 period. By controlling the potential bias resulting from common unobserved determinants of program resource allocation decisions and program outcomes, the methodology helps overcome an important constraint to the use of non-experimental study designs in undertaking meaningful impact assessments. Data from a panel of women interviewed in both the 1992 and 1995 Morocco Demographic and Health Surveys were used in the study, along with program data from Service Availability Modules undertaken in conjunction with each survey round. The results indicate that changes in the family planning supply environment, in particular increased presence of nurses trained in family planning and the level of infrastructure at public clinics, played a significant role in the increased use of modern contraceptives during the study period.     

Birth spacing dynamics in China: The cases of Hebei and Shaanxi provinces

Even as fertility has declined in China in the last several decades, the first and second birth intervals have become shorter over time and the probability of having a second child has increased since the late 1970s. This increase in the probability of conception seems to be contradictory to the Chinese government's birth planning strategy which explicitly stresses timing and parity. Using retrospective survey reports from 1985 in Hebei and Shaanxi provinces, the study explored this paradox. The study revealed several findings: (1) government intervention, especially the one-child policy of the late 1970s, had a strong, unexpected influence on early conception in China; (2) the timing and probability of having a first birth were associated with macrosocial forces and familial relationships; and (3) the timing and probability of having a second birth were associated with biosocial, familial as well as macro-social characteristics.Abbreviations CBR crude birth rate - DPSB Department of Population Statistics, State Statistical Bureau, China - TFR total fertility rate This article is based on a paper presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC, 21–23 March 1991.     

Fertility in China 1982–1990: Gender equality as a complement to wealth flows theory

Some scholars claim there is little variation in Chinese fertility because of coercive family planning policies. This research, however, demonstrates that other factors contribute to significant variation in fertility rates among China's 30 provinces/administrative divisions. Although family planning and socioeconomic development are found to explain significant amounts of variation in fertility for both the 1982 and 1990 census cross-sections, it was also found that gender equality in education had become significant by 1990. Path model results that lag the effects of 1982 socioeconomic development and gender equality in education also indicate that they both have sizable direct effects and moderate indirect effects through family planning behavior on 1990 fertility rates. Discussions include the possibility that the recent free market and institutional reforms, e.g., the decollectivization of agriculture, have contributed a social structure whereby many Chinese families have increased awareness of the opportunity costs associated with their reproductive decision making.     

More evidence on smoke detector effectiveness and the value of saving a life

Economic models of the fire fatality rate give estimates of smoke detector effectiveness. These estimates are much smaller than those generally accepted. Reasonable interpretation of these estimates, combined with the cost of a smoke detector and the risk of a fire death, places the smoke detector-based value of life saving in a range of $ 1.41 to $ 2.487 million 1986 dollars. The more generally accepted results of other studies of the value of life saving fall in a range of $ 1.6 to $ 8.5 million 1986 dollars. Smoke detector market data, along with effectiveness estimates from economic models, may provide a unique opportunity to estimate the value of life saving.Partial funding for this project was made available by the Kellogg Foundation through a grant to the Missouri Youth Initiative Program. An earlier version of this paper was presented as a seminar paper at the Center for Fire Research, National Institute of Standards and Technology, United States Department of Commerce, Gaithersburg, Maryland, May 8, 1990. Results were also reported at the session on Value of Life Saving: Narrowing the Range, Southern Economic Association, November 1990, New Orleans.     

Spatial inequality and poverty among American children

National-level statistics often mask extreme spatial differentiation in child poverty. Using county-level data from the 1990 US decennial census summary tape file, we show that child poverty is distributed unevenly over geographic space. Child poverty is concentrated in counties in Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and the southern black belt. Child poverty rates are strongly influenced by the local industrial composition (e.g., agriculture and manufacturing), but the effects are largely indirect, operating primarily through reduced employment opportunities among adult workers. High county unemployment and underemployment rates contribute directly to children's economic deprivation, as well as indirectly by undermining the formation and stability of two-parent families. Our results highlight existing spatial differentiation and inequality in children's economic well-being, and provide a point of departure for additional research on the geography of child poverty.