中土外交新思路

中国和土耳其——在古丝绸之路两端遥望的两个国家,近几个月来由于防空导弹汀购的争议,不断被同时暴露在聚光灯下。虽然结果尚未尘埃落定,但中土两国注定都不会是输家,此次事件同时为两国未来的外交路线打开了新思路。虽然大部分国土处于亚洲版图,但土耳其历来自视为欧洲国家。"向西看"也是土耳其外交政策的主要指导思想。土耳其外长达武特奥卢2013年在美国访问时,曾在布鲁金斯学会发表演讲,阐释了土耳其的外交战略。土耳其的外交战略分为三个层次:首先,以美国、欧盟为主的"跨大西洋关系"是重中之重;其次是周边关系;最后是拓展东亚、拉美等外交新领域。由此不难理解为何土耳其遭遇重重阻挠,仍热衷于加入欧盟。即便在东亚关系上,从历史上看,中国也不是土耳其的外交重点,不论在意识形态还是民族感情上,土耳其更重视与日本的外交关系。但是,随着中国崛起和土外交政策的调整,土耳其也越来越重视与中国的关系。     

土耳其正义与发展党和"居伦运动"的关系演化

<正>义与发展党和"居伦运动"虽同为当代土耳其重要的伊斯兰主义力量,但前者以国家为导向,后者以社会为依托,且在不同时期对土耳其政治和社会产生过重要影响。正义与发展党上台前后,因受到面临世俗精英势力的挑战、"居伦运动"与政府交好的先例,以及两者相似的政治观、民主观和"宗教—社会"观等因素的影响,选择了同"居伦运动""结盟"的政治策略。但受两者政治合作空间锐减和"居伦运动"屡次"越界"导致"国家—社会"关系失衡、正义与发展党内政外交政策调整等因素影响,双方在政治、经济及外交领域的矛盾日益加剧,并对实行伊斯兰民主的"土耳其模式"产生了消极影响。     

论土耳其埃尔多安政府的外交政策

以埃尔多安为总理的土耳其政府,改变了土耳其以往单维度、不平衡的外交政策,开始向多维度、多样化的方向逐渐发展,积极扩展在中东、中亚、高加索、巴尔干、非洲等地区的影响力,以改善与邻国的关系,其外交政策显示出更大的独立性。尽管埃尔多安政府在外交上主要以西方国家尤其是美国作为外交基轴,但并未一味地为迎合美国而在国际事务中处处跟随其后,而是着力扩大国家影响力在国际舞台上寻求独立声音。中东剧变后,埃尔多安政府的外交政策表现出延续性和灵活性。需要指出的是,埃尔多安政府外交政策的调整并不意味着以西方国家为基轴的外交战略发生根本性扭转,外交政策的东移不过是亲西方政策的补充,旨在更好地完善土耳其的外交政策。     

埃尔多安“新土耳其”论与“土耳其模式”的危机

2016年7月土耳其未遂政变是中东变局以来的又一个高潮事件,其标志着埃尔多安倡导的"新土耳其"论和"土耳其模式"同时陷入危机。作为一种政治主张,"新土耳其"论的主要内容包括强势民主、活力经济和积极外交等思想主张,背后隐藏的却是伊斯兰主义的回归,并被解释为对凯末尔主义传统的超越。在国内层面,正义与发展党连续数次选举成功后,伊斯兰民主逐步演化为以民粹主义为基础的选举霸权;在国际层面,经济发展和地缘政治变动提升了土耳其扩张主义的野心。在土耳其与大国的新一轮博弈中,埃尔多安再次表现出反复无常的特性。未来土耳其的政治走向已成为影响中东地区乃至全球政治的一个重要变量。     

土耳其"积极进取"的周边外交:内涵、目标与前景

中东变局发生以来,土耳其"积极进取"的外交舞台主要在以中东地区为核心的周边地区,集中表现为人道主义援助和军事打击为主的硬实力对抗.在国内政治竞争日趋激烈和2023年即将迎来建国一百周年的时代背景下,"积极进取"周边外交的主要目标是对内确保埃尔多安政权的稳定及其连任,对外努力使土耳其由传统的"桥梁国家"上升为全球国家,并争当逊尼派伊斯兰国家的领袖.实践中,"积极进取"的周边外交在取得一定成效的同时,也遭遇来自国内外的普遍质疑与严厉批评.未来,"积极进取"之周边外交既要面对新冠疫情冲击下土耳其经济的持续衰退、威权主义带来的政治危机和库尔德问题等内部困境,又要面临来自周边地区动荡、域外大国的制约以及阿拉伯世界的敌视等外部压力.     

土耳其中等强国外交的现实性和可能性

进入新世纪以来,随着土耳其经济的快速发展,其政治与外交政策也在发生变化。尤其在正义与发展党执政后,依托中东格局进入旧已破、新未立的转型之机,逐步形成中等强国型的外交战略。本文从土耳其所具有的现实条件和制约因素两个方面分析该外交战略构想的现实性和可能性。     

正义与发展党执政以来的土耳其与以色列关系

土耳其和以色列一直保持着友好稳定的合作关系。埃尔多安领导的正义与发展党执政后,土耳其和以色列关系起伏跌宕,巴勒斯坦问题、土以两国政局变化、正发党的外交理念等成为长期影响两国关系发展的主要因素。在当前巴以和平进程停滞不前、正发党继续执政的背景下,土以关系可能会长期处于冷热不均的状态,但双方的地缘环境、共同利益和相互需要决定了两国关系不会彻底破裂,更不会成为宿敌。     

2023年选举与“土耳其世纪”大战略

2023年,在土耳其百年国庆之际,埃尔多安和正义与发展党经过两轮选举再次赢得胜利。在连续执政20年后,雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安号召开启“土耳其世纪”的伟大征程,这成为考察土耳其战略趋势的重要契机。土耳其的“大战略”讨论综合考量本国历史、地理、身份等多方面因素,致力于周边安全以及在国际体系转型中的关键地位。2023年大选后的外交政策重申了土耳其的一些基本原则,如埃尔多安的领导地位、战略自主、安全—外交联系、贸易外交、土耳其的国际地位等。在具体表现方面,土耳其国防工业的迅猛发展引人注目,其背后所反映的是土耳其在军事战略方面的自主和扩张需求。与此同时,土耳其从联合国文明联盟倡议的发起者到将文明话语作为意识形态的主要因素,也反映了其在国内和国际政治中的战略愿景。     

土耳其在俄乌冲突中的平衡外交:表现、动因及影响北大核心CSSCI

在2022年俄乌冲突中,土耳其等中等强国或地区性大国在大国博弈中积极寻求外交平衡,避免选边站队,在区域政治和全球政治中的影响力持续上升。作为北约成员国、欧盟候选国和黑海沿岸国家,土耳其之所以在俄乌、俄美(北约)以及俄欧之间采取平衡外交是基于维护国家利益、赢取民意支持、谋求战略自主、彰显多元身份等诸多原因。不过,土耳其的平衡外交也有其限度,如土俄关系的非对称性、土美之间的结构性矛盾以及土耳其的反西方主义情绪等。土耳其未来在大国之间仍将寻求外交平衡,这对于提升其地缘战略价值、缓和外交孤立、增强全球影响力均具有重要意义,也从根本上有利于其战略自主地位的形成。然而,随着反对党力量不断增强,西方国家希望土耳其反对党在2023年选举中上台,土耳其的平衡外交因此面临巨大威胁。     

正义与发展党执政以来的土耳其现代化转型评析

土耳其是中东地区较早启动现代化转型的国家之一,19世纪后期的宪政运动揭开了土耳其现代化的序幕,其现代化转型的模式与经验,对中东国家现代化发展具有重要的借鉴意义和示范作用。正义与发展党上台以来,土耳其积极推进现代化转型,其内涵主要包括以下内容:以民主政治为目标和驱动力,通过社会制度化建设,提升民众的思想观念;以经济发展为核心,改善民众生活水平;以多元外交为保障,为现代化转型营造良好的国际和周边环境。民主政治、经济发展与多元外交为土耳其现代化转型提供了制度保障和物质基础。     

Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy: Towards a “new” cult of personality

This study examined how Turkey uses social media as a tool for public diplomacy and how the state’s soft-power efforts have recently changed on the global stage. The researchers constructed a dataset of 2769 Twitter posts by the Turkish government’s most influential public diplomacy accounts. The analyses revealed that the focus of Turkey’s Twitter public diplomacy has become concentrated on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and is thematically focused on the political values embodied by the Turkish president. The findings suggest that public diplomacy remains to be the diplomacy of the government, not of the public, and social media is used as just another tool for propaganda, not as a means of engagement with foreign publics. Further, the findings indicate the emergence of a “new” cult of personality in public diplomacy and point out the instrumental role of social media in changing the dynamics of leader-follower relationship. The study contributes to public relations theory and practice by advancing the burgeoning public diplomacy scholarship at the intersection of social media and relational approaches.     

卡塔尔的外交政策及其实践

海湾小国卡塔尔近年来采取积极的外交政策,多次斡旋中东地区的危机和冲突,缓和了中东政治矛盾和安全局势,取得了令人瞩目的外交成就。卡塔尔采取积极外交政策的动因包括营造和平稳定的发展环境、保护在冲突发生国的利益和提升软实力。同时,雄厚的经济实力、务实的外交政策和丰富的外交资源等因素是卡塔尔外交成功的主要原因。卡塔尔外交为当今世界小国外交带来了启示,其外交实践丰富了国际关系理论。     

Off the record: Margaret van Kleffens and the gendered history of Dutch World War II diplomacy

This article makes the case for recovering women’s roles from the forgotten corners of diplomatic history, and for considering the consequences of the gap between feminist and non-feminist research. It shows how ignorance of the gendered nature of diplomatic norms and practices impacts our understanding of diplomatic history, and how specific biographies are hampered by gender blindness in particular. Using the history of Margaret van Kleffens and Dutch World War II diplomacy as an example, the article demonstrates how historians’ continued neglect of the role of women and gender norms has influenced representations of twentieth-century diplomacy. To dismiss the history of gender and of women as by definition irrelevant to the actions of states and of male statespersons is not simply part of a self-appointed focus on the political at the expense of the personal; rather, it omits much of the political history too, reproducing stereotypes and resulting in a skewed understanding of diplomatic history and foreign policy decisions. The article argues that both historians and feminist scholars need to historicize gender in order to recognize women’s roles in diplomacy, and so gain a better understanding of the history of international politics as a whole.     

Projections internationales ou détours vers le local? Les diplomaties identitaires des sikhs (Inde) et des Mohajirs (Pakistan)

Ethnic diplomacy can be characterised as a ‘popular mode of diplomatic action’. As such, it is an illustration of the privatisation of diplomacy, which may involve private actions sponsored by state actors or, on the contrary, private actions with a public outcome in the realm of foreign policy. By attempting to reach out to state actors, international organisations and global NGOs, ethnic diplomats articulate a cultural mode of transnational mobilisation. But these two dimensions of ethnic diplomacy, its ‘culturality’ and its ‘transnationality’, cannot be taken for granted and should be questioned thoroughly. Through this analysis, it appears that long-distance nationalists do not always succeed in transnationalising their activities and that they often end up re-locating themselves in exile. And more than ethnicity or cultural repertoires, it is the political culture of ethnodiplomatic organisations and their relations with the diasporic environments in which they evolve which helps to explain the outcome of these popular modes of diplomatic action.     

伊拉克战争与公众参与中国中东外交政策制定

伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。     

Best Practice Options: Turkey

At the ninth Migration Dialogue seminar, held 29–31 March 2001 in Istanbul, Turkey, opinion leaders discussed the major immigration and integration issues facing emigration, transit, and immigration countries. Several major issues regarding Turkey were discussed. 1 This report was prepared after the seminar for participants and others interested in migration and development issues. It has not been approved by participants, and thus should not be considered a consensus document.
First, the effect of the Turkish Government’s modernization effort, which began in the 1920s. In the 1960s the government began to promote the export of surplus labour, with the hope that sending workers abroad from less– developed parts of the country would bring remittances and returned workers with skills needed for modernization. Among the governments of labour–exporting countries, Turkey’s has been unique in its high hopes for recruitment, remittances, and returns. They were expected to bring about a transformation of the country. These high expectations help explain the widespread frustration with migration’s actual effects. Second, the Turkish Government’s current goal of gaining full membership in the European Union (EU). Ankara stresses that the EU should embrace full Turkish membership for a variety of reasons, including the country’s strategic position between Europe and Asia, and to send a signal to other Muslim societies, such as those of North Africa, that the EU will include Muslim societies that are secular and democratic. Third, Turkey’s fear that EU membership would lead to another wave of migration. Many Europeans fear that Turkish EU membership would lead to another wave of migration. Turkey hopes that admission to the EU will bring EU assistance and foreign direct investment (FDI) that creates jobs and pushes up wages, thus making migration insignificant. Finally, Turkey’s position as an emigration, transit, and immigration country. There are 3 to 4 million Turks abroad, 3 to 4 million foreigners living in Turkey (perhaps half Iranians), and tens of thousands who move through Turkey to Europe. Turkey is revising its asylum law in a manner that will allow persons fleeing persecution outside Europe to be considered refugees in Turkey, to establish for the first time a support system for refugees.     

Telling the American story to the world: The purpose of U.S. public diplomacy in historical perspective

This paper seeks to provide an historical reflection on the central purpose of U.S. public diplomacy through an examination of the manifest mandate of the three major institutional settings for such international communication programs, i.e., the Committee on Public Information, the Office of War Information, and the United States Information Agency, and to shed light on the current public diplomacy endeavor spearheaded by the Department of State. The review demonstrates that U.S. public diplomacy has been principally an ad hoc instrument of American foreign policy to meet wartime exigencies and has been underscored by the promotion of American values of democracy and freedom. Over the years, it has expanded to encompass multiple modes of engagement, while at the same time there has been constant tension concerning the role of public diplomacy as a strategic, policy function versus merely as a “mouthpiece” within the foreign affairs apparatus. All of these themes continue to reverberate in the contemporary practice of public diplomacy.     

中东剧变与中国中东政策

中东动荡历时一年多,导致该地区多国政权更迭,并迅速扩展到叙利亚,叙危机已成为这场动荡旋涡的中心.伊斯兰势力的崛起成为这些转型国家面临的严峻课题.动荡使中东地区格局面临新的调整,地区大国间矛盾和力量消长,将影响有关国家政局和热点问题走向.美国调整中东政策,深刻影响了地区局势走向.中国坚持“不干涉内政”原则,尊重有关国家人民自主选择的原则立场,得到国际社会理解和肯定.中东形势演变对中国中东外交带来重要机遇和严峻挑战,中国应审时度势,积极应对,谋求中国与中东国家关系的新发展.