城市化与人口集聚

城市化是工业化的结果，也是农村人口伴随工业化进程向城镇迁移和集聚的结果。人口向城镇的迁移与集聚程度，直接反映一个国家或一个地区的城市化水平。在我国，除工业化进程这一基本因素以外，国家政策对人口的迁移、集聚和城市化起着极为重要的影响作用。因此，研究城市化问题，必须研究影响人口迁移与集聚的相关政策。     

加入WTO与21世纪中国社会结构转型和人口发展

一、加入WTO与中国社会结构转型加入WTO是中国政府为适应经济全球化趋势而做出的一项重大战略决策,也是扩大开放、深化改革的必然结果。从长远来看,加入WTO不仅有利于中国的经济发展,而且有利于加快中国的现代化进程。现代化进程是工业化、城市化和社会现代化三位一体的演讲过程,我国长期以来的现代化过分重视工业化而忽视了城市化和社会现代化,加入WTO对中国城市化和社会现代化的     

基于PVAR模型的东北地区城市化、工业化与人口集聚分析

城市化和工业化进程中东北人口流动和空间分布问题具有重要意义。本文分析了东北地区城市化和工业化的历史演进过程及发展特点,利用1987-2015年的相关城市数据,运用PVAR模型,通过系统广义矩估计(GMM)、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法研究工业化、城市化和东北人口集聚之间的关系。结果显示城市化水平的提升强化了"沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨"四个中心城市的影响力,有利于全省人口向四个中心城市集聚。以重工业发展模式和资本密集型投资倾向为特征的东北工业化发展不利于人口的集聚,另外市场化进程缓慢和指令性经济的影响弱化了工业化与城市化之间的循环累积效应,导致工业化与城市化的互动影响较弱且持续时间不长。在进一步讨论中,运用静态面板数据模型进行稳健性检验,发现结论与PVAR模型一致。目前在东北人口流失的背景下,东北地区应该充分发挥区域中心城市和大城市的规模效益和资源集聚优势,合理安排产业比例,完善产业布局,确定好重工业与轻工业的发展关系,促使工业化向更高级阶段发展。此外,还要减少城市化与工业化之间的摩擦成本和协调成本,实现两者的互动协调发展,以便更好发挥人口集聚优势,带动东北区域经济的发展。     

服务业集聚与城市化的互动关系:1997—2009

服务业集聚与城市化在本质上是相互影响的内生化过程。通过构建服务业集聚与城市化的联立方程模型,运用1997-2009年中国省级面板数据,采用三阶段最小二乘法法(3SLS)实证检验了服务业集聚与城市化之间的互动关系。研究发现,城市化与服务业集聚之间存在正向的互动关系,服务业集聚对城市化的促进作用要大于且显著于城市化对服务业集聚的作用;本地市场效应、开放型经济都有利于服务业集聚的产生;城市化滞后于经济发展水平;工业化在城市化进程中依然具有重要作用。     

人口空间分布转变态势与发展战略研究——以杭州为例

本文以杭州市为例,为大城市地区人口空间分布战略研究提供了一个实际案例。研究表明,杭州市当前及今后一段时间正处于"三并存三为主"的集中型城市化阶段,即集中与分散并存,以集中为主;城区人口再分布和郊区人口城市化因素成长并存,以城区人口再分布为主;发达地区人口增长与欠发地区人口缩减并存,以发达地区人口增长为主。新城区大规模迁入、近郊县市小规模迁入、远郊县市小规模迁出,外围部分地区人口成缩减态势。全市将在21世纪30年代后期进入城市化成熟阶段。当前,正处于城镇人口比重大幅度提升的高潮期。建议杭州市实施"两降一升"方针,重点开发"三区两市",分三大阶段推进人口空间分布转变。     

人口偏好结构转变、人口质量红利与农业发展：以中国东部地区为例

由工业化、城市化引致的农村人口偏好结构转变加速农业发展模式转变,农村人力资本水平提升为农业由人口数量红利型向人口质量红利型发展带来新的契机。作为内地经济最发达的东部地区在农村人口偏好结构正在发生转变的背景下,人力资本虽对农业增长具有正向作用但低于现代物质资本的贡献,东部地区农业发展仍依赖物质资本红利。随着工业化和城市化的持续推进,农村人口质量偏好进一步得到强化,东部地区将率先实现人口质量红利型农业发展模式。     

对工业化和城市化关系量化测度的思考——兼评我国的工业化与城市化进程

通过分析工业化和城市化及二者关系的现行衡量指标和判断标准,提出评价我国城市化与工业化协调发展的状况,应以城镇人口比重、工业就业比重为衡量指标,以IU比为评价标准,并据此对我国工业化与城市化的关系及现实进程做了实际测量和理论分析。     

对经济较发达地区若干人口调控问题的战略思考

对经济较发达地区若干人口调控问题的战略思考潘金洪，倪毓嘉，高尔康随着工业化的推进，我国的苏南、浙北、辽东和山东、福建、广东沿海、京、津、沪等地已经率先进入经济较发达行列。这些地区的社会经济发展开始从无序走向有序，人们不再追求单一的经济增长，而是开始追...     

中国城市化与二氧化碳排放量的协整分析

中国经济未来仍将保持良好的发展态势,经济增长的同时常常伴随着城市化过程,含碳能源的消费带动城市化进程的同时,也使得大气中的二氧化碳含量明显增加,发展与环保之间的关系值得权衡。在已有的理论基础上,采用1978～2006年的相关统计数据对中国城市化与含碳能源消费发生的二氧化碳排放量进行协整分析,同时建立误差修正模型,并运用Granger因果关系检验的方法,反映经济发展过程中城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间的规律性变化。城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,二期滞后时,具有协整关系。同时Granger因果关系检验结果表明,中国的城市化进程不同于发达工业化国家,与二氧化碳排放量之间不具有理论上的双向因果关系。二期滞后时,城市化是二氧化碳排放量的Granger原因,但后者不是前者的原因,对其不具有反馈效应。     

人口、经济对中国城市化的影响分析

利用相关年份的统计数据,分析了人口增长、经济增长与城市化的关系。利用合理假设,还原了理想人口控制之下我国城市化的理想效果和适当经济控制之下我国城市化的较好效果。结果表明:我国城市化进程与经济发展的基本趋势是一致的;城市化水平低下源于人口的高速增长和经济增长缺乏连续性;等值的人口增长率对我国城市化水平的限制作用大于等值的经济增长率的推动作用;人口的过快增长使劳动力供给长期大于需求和人口数量过大的状况是导致表象的城市化与工业化"背离"发展的一个重要因素。     

"Mummies and babies" and friends and lovers in Lesotho

This paper examines an institutionalized friendship among adolescent girls and young women in southern Africa. Lesotho's economy is based on migrant male labor which leaves the women dependent on male earnings or subsistence from the land, and also creates unstable marital relations. Young girls in the modern schools develop close relationships, called "mummy-baby," with slightly older girls. Sexual intimacy is an important aspect of these relationships. Mummy-baby relationships not only provide emotional support prior to marriage, but also a network of support for married and unmarried women in new towns or schools, either replacing or accompanying heterosexual bonds.     

Understanding and Using Mediators and Moderators

Mediation and moderation are two theories for refining and understanding a causal relationship. Empirical investigation of mediators and moderators requires an integrated research design rather than the data analyses driven approach often seen in the literature. This paper described the conceptual foundation, research design, data analysis, as well as inferences involved in a mediation and/or moderation investigation in both experimental and non-experimental (i.e., correlational) contexts. The essential distinctions between the investigation of mediators and moderators were summarized and juxtaposed in an example of a causal relationship between test difficulty and test anxiety. In addition, the more elaborate models, moderated mediation and mediated moderation, the use of structural equation models, and the problems with model misspecification were discussed conceptually.

Complementary and alternative medicine: Interaction and communication between midwives and women

BackgroundMany pregnant women use complementary and alternative medicine. Although midwives are often supportive, how they communicate with women about the safe use of these therapies has received limited research attention.AimThe aim of this study was to explore how midwives interact with women regarding use of complementary and alternative medicine during pregnancy.MethodsWe utilised grounded theory methodology to collect and analyse data. Twenty-five midwives who worked in metropolitan hospitals situated in Melbourne, Australia, participated in the study. Data were collected from semi structured interviews and non-participant observations, over an 18-month period.FindingsHow midwives communicate about complementary and alternative medicine is closely associated with the meaning they construct around the woman's role in decisionmaking. Most aim to work in a manner consistent with the midwifery partnership model and share the responsibility for decisions regarding complementary and alternative medicine. However, although various therapies were commonly discussed, usually the pregnant woman initiated the dialogue. A number of contextual conditions such as the biomedical discourse, lack of knowledge, language barriers and workplace constraints, limited communication in some situations.ConclusionMidwives often interact with women interested in using CAM. Most value the woman's autonomy and aim to work in partnership. However, various contextual conditions restrain overt CAM communication in clinical practice.     

Injecting and Rejecting,Framing and Failing

This paper seeks to examine how female subjectivities are privileged by Canadian human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination discourse and, in turn, how homosexual male subjectivities are displaced. Employing a Critical Discourse Analysis approach, I analyze selected HPV vaccination (HPVV) promotional materials, and depict the discursive strategies which privilege and exclude gendered subjectivities. My critical analysis is influenced by feminist linguistic works that seek to uncover the discursive constructions around sexuality, gender and identity, and the discursive strategies used to communicate ideas about sexual health risks and responsible citizenship. In addition, I adopt feminist theories of knowledge and power to rethink the discursive representations of some bodies and subjectivities as normal, and Others as unintelligible within HPVV discourse in today's neoliberal time.     

Beliefs and values and the sterilization decision

A decision-making framework based on the models of personal decision making developed by psychologists and economists and a methodology based on axiomatic conjoint measurement are used to explore individuals' beliefs and values regarding contraceptive sterilization. Particular emphasis is given to demonstrating a. that there exist individual differences in beliefs and values, b. that there exist differences in beliefs and values between persons who choose sterilization—either tubal ligation or vasectomy—and persons who choose non-sterilization contraceptive methods when no more children are wanted, and c. that the effect of beliefs and values on the sterilization decision is an interactive one. The methodology used is compared to that typically used in studying fertility- and health-related behaviors.This research was supported by grants HD-10802 and HD-14403 from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The technical assistance of Doreen Victor and the editorial suggestions of Sarah Gaskill, Alice Healy, and two anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. This paper is Publication No. 253 of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0344. Requests for reprints should be sent to the Publications Librarian at the Center.     

Family Instability and College Enrollment and Completion

This research uses data from waves I and IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health, N = 9,631) to consider whether and how family instability in early or later childhood affects college enrollment and completion of a Bachelor’s degree by age 24. Explanatory factors include maternal selection into unstable unions, household resources available in adolescence, and adolescents’ academic achievement, behavior, and attitudes in high school. The association of later family instability with college enrollment and completion is largely explained by household resources in adolescence. The association of early family instability with college enrollment is partially explained by each set of factors, and its association with college completion, given enrollment, is explained by pre-existing maternal characteristics. The results demonstrate that early family instability has enduring consequences for eventual status attainment and that the mechanisms that connect family instability to educational outcomes vary by the timing of family structure change.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

Officer friendly and the tough cop:gays and lesbians navigate homophobia and policing

Despite attempts to expand social diversity, policing is still dominated by a white, masculine, heterosexual ethos. As a consequence, employment of lesbians and gay men as police officers may be especially threatening to members of this occupation. Within the context of potential hostility and homophobia, nontraditional officers must negotiate their contradictory presence on the police force. This paper investigates that negotiation. Using the Bem Sex Role Inventory and open-ended survey data from a sample of "out" and "closeted" gay and lesbian police officers, we ask how gays and lesbians manage their images as "good cops" in the face of gender norm violations associated with their sexual orientation. Our findings indicate that masculinity and femininity do not hold together in a cohesive, dichotomous manner for these officers. Instead, other characteristics that enhance policing are emphasized to support their occupational competence. These officers see themselves as "good cops." The gendered/sexualized character of their self-perceptions appears to matter less than the context of the job, more than for a comparison sample of heterosexual police officers. We conclude that although gay and lesbian officers see their sexuality as an occupational asset, they are also likely to work harder to prove themselves as crime fighters.