Some problems about the policy of controlling population growth in China]

This discussion of some problems regarding the policy of controlling population growth in China focuses on the formation and the development of the policies of planned population growth control, how demands of modernization require a policy of only 1 child for each couple, and the need for ideological education as well as essential economical and administrative measures. The process of forming and developing the population control policies of China can be divided into 3 phases: the mid-50s to the early 1970s; the early 1970s to March 5, 1978 -- the date the new constitution became effective; and March 5, 1978 to the present. The 1st formal policy on planned popultion control emerged in 1956 at the 8th national meeting of the Communist party. The necessity for propagating planned birth control and advocating planned birth was recognized at this time. During the 2nd phase, the planned birth program was almost stopped by interference from an anti-revolutionary group. The maladjustment between population development and economic development were getting worse during the 1966-1971 period. Health services in both rural and urban areas were developed, and maternal and child health care services were reinforced in order to lower the death rate and to increase the practice of birth planning. The objective was to adjust the birth rate by improving production development and the living coinditions of the people. The new constitution indicated that the country should advocate and practice planned birth. The special committee on planned birth of the State Council, meeting in June 1978, established guidelines for the national planned birth program. The population policy of only 1 child for each couple was proposed for the longterm benefit of China and its people and because of the urgent demand of the 4 modernizations. The indication of the achievement of the 4 modernizations by the end of the 20th century is a per capita income of 1000 United States dollars. To reach the $1000 figure, the per capita income needs to be increased 3-fold. This is a difficult task, and to realize it effort must be placed on both material production and population control. Problems that may result from the advocation of only 1 child for each couple are reviewed. The way to promote the exeuction of the policy of planned control of population growth is to apply ideological education as the major method and to integrate it with economical and administrative measures.     

Relating briefly the natural resources and the population problems of China]

Problems in population, manifested primarily as either "over" or "under" population, are ultimately related to the development of natural resources. Land is the most basic of natural resources. China's land mass is largely mountainous, with 56% of its more than 2000 counties, 1/3 of its population, 40% of its cultivated land and a majority of its forests, situated in mountainous regions. The quality and the distribution of the various kinds of land are complex and uneven. Although China is rich in forests, grazing, and arable land compared to the rest of the world, its 1 billion population makes the land a limited resource. The limitations of the land are also seen in soil erosion, soil that is increasingly turning into sand, and deforestation. Water resources are not considered scarce, yet compared to the rest of the world, it is limited. Its distribution is very uneven, with more water in the east and west, and less in the north and south. In the southwest mountainous border regions, for instance, water is abundant, but the population and arable land there is such that the demand for water is low. Moreover, droughts and heavy precipitation make the annual water supply unpredicatable. The demand for water becomes increasingly greater as agricultural production develops further, the population increases and as the cities continue to expand. living matter as a resource includes all the animal and plant life that is necessary for livelihood, but only forests and grasslands are discussed here. China's forests, if their use is not abused, can serve as a continuous supply for manufactured products. But its distribution is uneven and sparse. Population control will be ineffective if the forests are not replenished and developed. Grasslands are the primary source for animal products. The natural grasslands, found mainly in the north and west, are not as productive as that of other nations due to the nature of China's topography, the vagaries of climate, and deterioration. Energy, the source for fuel, includes such natural resources as coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydraulic, and solar power. China is among the world's richest in energy resources, yet the supply is sometimes insufficient when spread among 1 billion people.     

The population situation and its relation to the economy in Turkey]

In southwest Asia, Turkey is a leading nation in collecting complete data on its population through the use of a modern census. Based on available information, the development of Turkey's population can be summarized as follows: 1) in the last 20 years, Turkey's population increase rate has been 2% annually, very high by world standards; 2) the average age is young, and the population's burden coefficient is above 80%; and 3) the geographical distribution of the population is uneven. The population density in central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country is low, while the coastal provinces near the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea have a high population density. In the last 50 years, the political situation in Turkey has remained stable. The national economy has developed rapidly, and the infant mortality rate has declined as a result of advancements in medicine and health care. Since Turkey is an Islamic country, birth control and abortion are not popular. The traditional early marriage for women and high illiteracy rate among women have contributed to a rapid population growth. In the past 20 years, however, the national economy has been overburdened by a rapid population growth. Problems of unemployment, a housing shortage in cities, inadequate public health facilities, a shortage of schools, a decline in farm land and inadequate food supplies have become increasingly obvious. Economically speaking, Turkey is much better than most developing nations. With its current foundation and rich natural resources, the country needs only to reduce the natural population increase rate slightly in order to achieve a balanced economic development.     

The problem of the aged population in China]

The situation regarding the population of China over age 60 is reviewed. From 1953 to 1980 the aged population doubled in size, with the population in urban areas growing at a faster rate than in rural areas. The author notes that declining birth and mortality rates and longer life expectancy will cause the absolute number of the aged to increase. For China, each percentage point increase in the aged means an increase of 10 million aged people. As the ratio of the aged to the rest of the society becomes increasingly larger, China will become an aged society. Tables on age distribution and life expectancy are included.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

A tentative discussion on problems of enhancement of population quality in China]

Population quality is an undeniable fact. It means people's scientific and cultural literacy, their ability to work, and their physical health condition. Population quality is influenced by sociological and physiological factors. Population quality improves as society and production power improve. Industrialization and rapid development in science and technology in western countries required workers with higher levels of education and physical concentration. In order to change the poor economic situation and achieve the "Four Modernizations" in China, a great number of people possessing knowledge of modern science and technology to manage modern production is needed. Agricultural and meat production need to be improved, thereby improving the people's physical health condition. The importance of population quantity control must be realized. In order to lower the population growth rate we can increase the economic development and improve people's educational level and physical health. To improve population quality we should continue nationwide family planning programs, change our educational structure (increase vocational training and utilize the electronic media and correspondence courses), improve the physical health of children and youth, expand our social welfare system, and emphasize research on genetics and eugenics.     

我国水环境问题与人口、社会、经济因素的相关分析

我国各地区普遍存在水环境问题 ,且地区间的水环境状况差异显著。水环境问题与人口、社会、经济等因素在地区分布上很不协调 :水量丰富地区 ,水污染、水浪费十分严重 ;缺水地区 ,经济相对落后 ;缺水程度低的地区 ,人口密度较高 ,使水资源存在巨大的潜在压力。在影响水环境的相关因素中 ,人口因素的作用十分突出 ,社会经济因素也具有重要影响。     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

A discussion of the effect of development of commodity economy on rural fertility trend in the countryside]

A long-term commodity economy in China, according to this report, will help to improve family planning and to decrease the population. The new economic reforms have brought a commodity economy to rural areas of China and the result is an improved level of productivity and a higher standard of living. At this stage in China's economic development, many couples want to have more than 1 child which they could not afford before. This poses a new problem for family planning objectives. As the economy has shifted from a partially self-contained economy to a commodities-based one, more rural inhabitants want more children for the following reasons: 1) the economic system in China is based on the production of individual households (since agriculture in China today is still carried out by manual laborers, the household productivity rate is determined by the number of laborers it can provide); 2) as rural inhabitants have a higher income than before, they are no longer worried about fines; 3) decentralization reduces the governments financial resources and it is unable to follow through with, e.g., promises of 1-child family incentives and bonuses, and welfare. As a result, families do not uphold the family planning objectives. Family planning will eventually overcome these problems, however, through promotion of family planning campaigns and as the commodity economy advances and becomes more thoroughly developed. The author states that China is currently in the midst of an economic transition period which, once over, will see a decrease in the overall population.     

Some fundamental problems in population projection]

When family planning work in China developed, during the 1970's, the work of population projection also expanded. Population projections were done for China and its regions beginning in 1974 and remains a relatively new activity. Some question its validity, while others speculate about its methods and beleive only higher mathematics can be used, but this is all due to a lack of understanding of the nature of population forecasting. It is possible to predict population because if a current population situation and its changes are known, population of a particular future period can be projected e.g. for each year that is lived, a person will be 1 year older. And, population changes are primarily based on changes in births and deaths. These changes in turn are influenced by social and economic factors. Population projection is basically a forecasting of a certain period's total population, age and sex structure, the number of births and deaths, and migration. Different methods and formulas can be used to measure different population indicators, but all methods utilize comparisons. There are basically 2 methods for projecting total population: 1) the "direct method" regards total population as a quantity that itself changes and 2) the "separate factor method" breaks down total population into births, deaths, and migration. In the past, population projection has focused on the natural development of population which can be called "uncontrolled" because it makes "passive measurements" of possible population developments. In China, however, population projection is "controlled." Although it too measures future population developments, China's projections are not based on natural developments, but on definite population policies and estimates of results of family planning efforts.     

Several problems concerning population investment]

Population investment is a major topic in the studies of population and economic relations. In this particular area, numerous theoretical and practical problems are still in need of solution. Concerning the problem of population concept, there are three different approaches: (1) to determine the definition of population investment from the relationship between the population growth and the capital from national income used for investment, including investment in the newly increased population and investment in the entire population; (2) to explain population investment from the economic viewpoint that people are producers; and (3) to explain population investment from the expense needed to change a simple labor force to a skillful labor force. The expenses include educational costs, maintanance spending, wages needed to compensate workers in labor, costs for workers to master and learn modern scientific techniques to be used for production, and the costs of keeping a young labor force in the next generation.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

A preliminary analysis of population problems in Taiwan]

Tables are presented to show that Taiwan's mortality rate declined from 18.1 per 1,000 in 1947 to 4.7 per 1,000 in 1976, the birth rate fell from 38.3 per 1,000 in 1947 to 25.9 per 1,000 in 1976, and the rate of natural increase rose from 20.2 in 1947 to 22.2 per 1,000 in 1976. Other tables showing the relationships between population and land use, employment, and medical care are also provided.     

The political economy of population economics

The relationship between political economy and population economics involves many important issues such as the roles of voters, interest groups, families, and social policy. In this short note, we discuss the new and intriguing issues raised by current research at the intersection of these two subjects.     

Transition of the population reproduction pattern in China]

In the past 30 years, great changes have taken place in the reproduction pattern of the population in China. A historical pattern of a high birth rate and high death rate no longer exists. A new low birth rate and low death rate pattern has now become a reality. It is especially notable that China has realized this transition under the condition of a backward economy. Since 1949, the death rate has dropped rapidly because of advancements in medical care, a rise in the standard of living, and an improvement in public health. The change in fertility, however, is determined by the developing level of social productivity. As mankind has moved forward, population reproduction has gradually become a self-conscious activity. Fertility is increasingly determined by views on marriage and concepts of birth. China has successfully achieved a transition in fertility, and this has to be credited to China's progressive relations in social production and an excellent social system. In addition, practical efforts made by the political leadership, cooperation from the people, and popularization of ideological education on family planning have all contributed to a transition in China's fertility rate.     

Some problems on objective laws of population]

We must realize the existence and the importance of objective laws of population to understand the practical law. Population growth is determined by physiological and sociological factors. Furthermore, the sociological factor is determined by the production of the society. Until production reaches a certain level, the direction of population growth in both quantity and quality parallels production. After the population reaches a certain level, both the production and the quality of population growth continue to increase, but the quantity of the population growth decreases. Production requires both labor and material. Their relationship is expressed as the objective law of simple reproduction and expanded reproduction. The rapid development of technology and production in capitalistic societies results in unemployment. This "excess" population is a product of the capitalistic system. The rapid development of technology and production in a socialistic society results not in unemployment but in shorter working days and a higher living standard. The objective law of population growth is not transformed into a law of comparative population excess but into a unique socialistic population law--the formation of a highly civilized communistic working people.     

Some problems with the development of the population theory since the founding of the People's Republic of China]

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the development of the population theory has experienced some setbacks. It is important to learn lessons from the past and establish a socialist population theory based on science. During the 1st 30 years of the People's Republic of China, the development of a population theory can be divided into 3 stages: 1) stage one was from 1949 to 1957 -- belief in population control on the basis of sociology; 2) stage two was from the late 1950s to early 1960s -- represented by Mr. Ma Yinchu's "New Population Theory" and the theory of the opposing side; and 3) stage Three began after the 1960s. Throughout the 1960s, studies of population theory remained stagnant, and no progress in this field was possible. In the 1970s, especially since the downfall of the "Gang of Four," the development of a population theory has entered a new stage. 3 problems with the development of the population theory discussed by the author are: 1) an evaluation of Comrade Mao Zedong's thoughts on population, 2) the division of different schools in population theory, 3) the different periods in the development of the population theory since 1949. Mao Zedong did change his thoughts on population control, but he was in favor of family planning and supported studies in population theory. Besides Ma Yinchu, Chin Da, Fei Xiaotong, Wu Jingchao and others also had their own population theories. The author emphasizes the contributions made by Mao Zedong and the Communist Party in the development of a population theory. New accomplishments and experience are expected with the downfall of the "Gang of Four."     

Problems concerning population distribution in China]

Questions concerning the spatial distribution of the population of China are explored. It is noted that over 40 percent of the population is concentrated in the coastal southeast and that the highest density of population is found between the Yangtze and Pearl rivers. The measures taken by the government to improve population distribution are described, with particular emphasis on controls of migration to urban areas.     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.     

Some problems concerning the population thought in the Ming and Quing dynasties]

After the middle of the Ming dynasty, the Chinese feudal system began to show some influence of capitalism in its production models. Changes began to take place in its political and economic systems. In 1723, a new method of household taxation was adopted to replace the traditional taxation system, which had been based upon the population of each household. Under the new system, taxation was based upon the size of the land each household owned. As a result of this change, the population showed rapid growth. Intellectuals began to form the concept of curbing excessive population growth. They also began to pay attention to the problems of adequate material supplies, overpopulation, and possible solutions. Chinese intellectuals and scholars of the late Ming and Qing dynasties, including Xu Guangqi, Hong Liangji, Wang Shifeng, and Xue Fucheng realized the serious nature of population growth. In fact, the population figure doubledever 30 years on a regular basis. The rapid population growth caused a decline in the living standard, higher prices for consumer goods, unemployment, a decline in the population quality, and social disorders. Hong Liangji suggested that natural disasters such as floods and droughts could help reduce the population, and that improvement in agriculture, emigration, and tax reductions could promote production. Wang Shifeng was in favor of using severe laws and restrictions on marriage to control population. Xue Fucheng proposed the idea of imitating Western countries to develop capitalism and industries and increase employment opportunities to reduce the pressure of the rapid population growth.