关于抽样调查中多层次调查问题的探讨

现在越来越多的调查需要在估计总体目标变量的基础上估计各个层次的目标变量,即多层次调查问题。文章从抽样设计的角度介绍了两种样本追加的方法和利用永久随机数的样本追加方法,这两种方法可以更好地解决多层次调查问题。     

关于永久随机数法抽样技术的探讨

永久随机数法(Permanent Random Numbers)抽样技术在各国调查实践中有着广泛的应用,主要集中在农业、能源、商业、价格指数调查等方面.近年来我国抽样调查领域也开始引入永久随机数法抽样技术,如规模以下工业抽样调查、农村抽样调查等等.本文系统介绍了永久随机数法抽样技术的几种常用的方法,并对其特点进行探讨,希望能够促进永久随机数法抽样技术在我国抽样调查体系中的应用和推广.     

永久随机数法样本轮换初探

本文系统介绍了永久随机数法样本轮换理论,讨论了在等概率、不等概率抽样条件下永久随机数法样本轮换的具体应用,并将其与传统的子样本轮换方法进行比较,希望能够促进永久随机数法样本轮换在经常性抽样调查中的应用和推广。     

永久随机数法抽样技术中的抽样框问题探讨

抽样框的维护问题是连续抽样调查中不可忽略的问题，尤其是在对变化较快的总体进行抽样调查时，能否较好的实现抽样框的更新将是影响抽样调查的结果能否反映总体的关键问题。相对于传统的抽样方法，永久随机数法抽样技术有很多优良的，性质，可以有效地实现抽样框的更新就是其优势之一。本文从永久随机数法抽     

浅谈永久随机数技术在抽样调查实践中的应用

永久随机数（Permanent Random NumbersPRNs）技术在各国的抽样调查实践中有着广泛的应用。近年来，我国抽样调查领域也开始引入永久随机数法抽样技术，如规模以下工业抽样调查等。本文根据本人近年来在规模以下工业抽样调查学习和实践中的一些体会，介绍永久随机数法抽样技术的几种应用，希望能够为其它专业的抽样调查实践提供一些参考和借鉴作用，以促进永久随机数法抽样技术在统计调查中的应用和推广。     

规模以下工业抽样调查的新发展——永久随机数法抽样技术的引入

永久随机数(Pemanent Random Numbers)法抽样技术在调查中的应用近几年蓬勃兴起，主要集中在农业调查以及能源调查方面。在这一抽样技术中，抽样框的每个单元都被赋予从区间(0，1)产生的随机数，并保留下来，不再改变。随机数具有某一特征的单元将入样。因为     

多变量与规模成比例概率抽样的有关问题

多变量与规模成比例概率抽样技术是永久随机数抽样技术与Poisson抽样技术的结合与发展。文章讨论了多变量与规模成比例概率抽样的基本原理,并对其实用价值进行述评,希望能促进该抽样技术在调查工作中的应用。     

季度调查的另一种平衡三层次样本轮换模式

季度调查需要样本轮换，采用多阶段抽样设计的季度调查需要多层次样本轮换。针对采用三阶段抽样设计的季度调查，在此之前构造的一种平衡三层次样本轮换模式的基础上，构造了另外一种平衡的三层次样本轮换模式。该模式同样对任何一级单元的任何一次轮换各级抽样单元的样本拼配率保持不变。     

关于PoMix抽样方法的探讨

Poisson混和抽样(Poisson Mixture sampling,PoMix)是指一组用于高度偏斜的总体永久随机数法抽样技术。传统的Poissonnps抽样是PoMix抽样的一个特例。在高度偏斜总体的调查中,PoMix抽样相对降低了规模很大的调查单元的入样概率,提高了规模很小的调查单元的入样概率,于是缩小了在估计过程中规模大的单元和规模小的单元的权数的差异。当使用常规的估计量,PoMix抽样方案会得到比Poisson πps抽样小得多的方差。     

三级单元调查三次时的一种三层次样本轮换方法

连续调查需要实施样本轮换,这已经形成共识.采用多阶段抽样设计的连续调查需要实施多层次样本轮换,即对每级抽样单元均实施样本轮换.以日本劳动力调查为例.该调查采用了两阶段抽样设计,每个月进行一次,第一级抽样单元为普查区,第二级抽样单元为住址,对普查区实施的样本轮换模式为4-8-4(8),对住址实施的样本轮换模式为2-10-2(4).由于各种原因,世界上还没有连续调查实施三层次样本轮换.那么,三层次样本轮换究竟应该如何实施呢? 针对采用三阶段抽样设计的季度调查,本文从理论上解决了这个问题.……     

三维平衡轮换的多水平抽样调查设计研究综述及应用

现行的多水平抽样调查使用的各种形式的轮换模式,在西方各国均得到了广泛应用,但也存在着一系列问题。鉴此,通过对各种形式轮换模式的归纳统一和理论化综述研究,最终归纳出三维平衡多水平轮换模式设计方法,即将多水平轮换模式设计与后续的抽样估计方法研究统一起来,不但能够削减各类轮换偏差的负面影响,还能准确度量轮换样本之间的相关关系,并在多水平调查下得出更加准确的连续性抽样数据。此套设计方法具有极大的推广价值。     

我国规模以下工业连续性抽样调查方案设计研究

本文在分析我国规模以下工业抽样调查现状和存在问题的基础上,提出改革建议,对工业企业和个体工业户分别设计了连续性抽样调查方案,对工业企业采用三维平衡三水平轮换模式,对个体工业户采用二维平衡单水平轮换模式,两种调查方案都分别设计了两种轮换模式,以适应各个地区的实际情况。     

A modified ziggurat algorithm for generating exponentially and normally distributed pseudorandom numbers

The ziggurat algorithm is a very fast rejection sampling method for generating pseudorandom numbers (PRNs) from statistical distributions. In the algorithm, rectangular sampling domains are layered on top of each other (resembling a ziggurat) to encapsulate the desired probability density function. Random values within these layers are sampled and then returned if they lie beneath the graph of the probability density function. Here, we present an implementation where ziggurat layers reside completely beneath the probability density function, thereby eliminating the need for any rejection test within the ziggurat layers. In the new algorithm, small overhanging segments of probability density remain to the right of each ziggurat layer, which can be efficiently sampled with triangularly shaped sampling domains. Median runtimes of the new algorithm for exponential and normal variates is reduced to 58% and 53%, respectively (collective range: 41–93%). An accessible C library, along with extensions into Python and MATLAB/Octave are provided.     

关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是“以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体,以人口普查为基础,重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用”,但随着经济社会的快速发展,“以普查为基础,经常性抽样调查为主体"的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文以下将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查,在人口统计中作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计的改革设想,并落实到具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次人口普查为契机,建立《人口统计与管理服务数据平台》,并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。     

Selection of tightened two-level continuous sampling plans

Lieberman and Solomon (1955) introduced multi-level continuous sampling plans and Derman et al. (1957) extended them as tightened multi-level continuous plans. MLP-T plan is one of the three tightened multi-level continuous sampling plans of Derman et al. (1957). In this paper, we restrict our discussion to MLP-T plans with two sampling levels. Using a Markov chain model, expressions for the average outgoing quality, the average fraction inspected and the operating characteristic function are derived. Four tables are given to enable selection of MLP-T plans with two sampling levels when the acceptable quality level or the limiting quality level and the average outgoing quality limit are specified.     

基于多重抽样框的连续性抽样估计方法研究

多重抽样框可以解决单一抽样框难以完整覆盖流动性目标总体的难题,连续性抽样调查则可以获取变量的时序观测数据,对总体现象进行追踪调查。本文将多重抽样框调查与连续性抽样调查两种方法结合在一起进行研究,深入分析基于多重抽样框的连续性抽样估计方法。文章首先设计了连续性调查环境下总体结构变动表;然后,在简单随机抽样假定下的轮换样本调查情形开展研究,设计了14种参数缩减方法对构建的似然函数进行估计求解,并给出了估计量的迭代计算过程;最后,对本文的研究内容进行了总结与展望。     

Generalized tightened two-level continuous sampling plans

In 1955, Lieberman and Solomon introduced multi-level (MLP) continuous sampling plans. Derman et al . then extended the multi-level plans as tightened multi-level plans (MLP-T). In this paper, a generalization of MLP-T with two sampling levels is presented. Using a Markov chain model, expressions for the performance measures of the general MLP-T plans are derived. Tables are also presented for the selection of general MLP-T plans with two sampling levels when the acceptable quality level, limiting quality level, indiff erence quality level and average outgoing quality level are specified.     

Teaching Survey Sampling

In recent years the focus of research in survey sampling has changed to include a number of nontraditional topics such as nonsampling errors. In addition, the availability of data from large-scale sample surveys, along with computers and software to analyze the data, have changed the tools needed by survey sampling statisticians. It has also resulted in a diverse group of secondary data users who wish to learn how to analyze data from a complex survey. Thus it is time to reassess what we should be teaching students about survey sampling. This article brings together a panel of experts on survey sampling and teaching to discuss their views on what should be taught in survey sampling classes and how it should be taught.     

设计效应的计算

为了比较不同抽样方法的效率,1965年,Ｋｉｓｈ引进了设计效应(ｄｅｓｉｇｎｅｆｆｅｃｔ,简记为ｄｅｆｆ)。其定义为:ｄｅｆｆ(^θ)=Ｖ(^θ)/Ｖｓｒｓ(^θ)其中Ｖ(^θ)为所考虑的抽样设计下,总体未知参数θ的估计量的方差,Ｖｓｒｓ(^θ)为相同样本量的简单随机抽样下,θ的估计量的方差。设计效应可以用来评估所考虑的复杂抽样设计的效率。ｄｅｆｆ<1,表明所考虑的抽样设计的效率比简单随机抽样高,ｄｅｆｆ>1,则它的效率比简单随机抽样低。利用设计效应还可以确定样本量,所以它的计算很重要。通过抽样调查得到的是一个样本,因而,Ｖ(^θ)与Ｖ…     

An elastic net penalized small area model combining unit- and area-level data for regional hypertension prevalence estimation

Hypertension is a highly prevalent cardiovascular disease. It marks a considerable cost factor to many national health systems. Despite its prevalence, regional disease distributions are often unknown and must be estimated from survey data. However, health surveys frequently lack in regional observations due to limited resources. Obtained prevalence estimates suffer from unacceptably large sampling variances and are not reliable. Small area estimation solves this problem by linking auxiliary data from multiple regions in suitable regression models. Typically, either unit- or area-level observations are considered for this purpose. But with respect to hypertension, both levels should be used. Hypertension has characteristic comorbidities and is strongly related to lifestyle features, which are unit-level information. It is also correlated with socioeconomic indicators that are usually measured on the area-level. But the level combination is challenging as it requires multi-level model parameter estimation from small samples. We use a multi-level small area model with level-specific penalization to overcome this issue. Model parameter estimation is performed via stochastic coordinate gradient descent. A jackknife estimator of the mean squared error is presented. The methodology is applied to combine health survey data and administrative records to estimate regional hypertension prevalence in Germany.