A management consulting view on the statistical consulting process

In an earlier contribution to this journal, Kauermann and Weihs (Adv. Stat. Anal. 91(4):344 2007) addressed the lack of procedural understanding in statistical consulting: “Even though there seems to be a consensus that statistical consulting should be well structured and target-orientated, the range of activity and the process itself seem to be less well-understood.” While this issue appears to be rather new to statistical consultants, other consulting disciplines—in particular management consultants—have long come up with a viable approach that divides the typical consulting process into seven successive steps. Using this model as a frame allows for reflecting the approaches on statistical consulting suggested by authors published in AStA volume 91, number 4, and for adding value to statistical consulting in general.     

Recent Developments and Their Implications for the Future of Academic Statistical Consulting Centers

I describe how developments over the past 25 years in computing, funding, personnel, purpose, and training have affected academic statistical consulting centers and discuss how these developments and trends point to a range of potential futures. At one extreme, academic statistical consulting centers fail to adapt to competition from other disciplines in an increasingly fragmented market for statistical consulting and spiral downward toward irrelevancy and extinction. At the other extreme, purpose-driven academic statistical consulting centers constantly increase their impact in a virtuous cycle, leading the way toward the profession of statistics having greater positive impact on society. I conclude with actions to take to assure a robust future and increased impact for academic statistical consulting centers.     

Statistical consulting

The paper and the special issue focus on the activity of statistical consulting and its varieties. This includes academic consulting, consulting to and in industry as well as statistics in public media.     

A Question of Ethics

This article identifies three consulting roles—helper, leader, and colleague; recommends that statistical consultants ask more questions about basic mechanisms; suggests that statistical consultants regard their primary responsibility as providing guidance about the scientific method itself; discusses the need for continuing education to help improve consulting skills; and describes Wisconsin's Master's degree examination, which was designed to help students become effective practicing statisticians.     

Modelling and Analysis of Data that Exhibit Temporal Decay

Two recent examples of data from statistical consulting work form the basis of this paper. Both data sets arose from situations where temporal decay was expected, and different models for this are discussed, in particular, variants on simple exponential decay: hyperexponential (or mixed exponential) decay and models based on differential equations. Nonparametric estimation, using local quadratic smoothing of the data, of components of these models is discussed and employed to help to check the appropriateness or otherwise of existing parametric analyses of the data. In one example, the suitability of the parametric analysis is confirmed; in the other, the parametric assumptions made at the time are shown to have some flaws, and an improved parametric analysis is provided.     

Response

This article focuses on the roles consulting units can play in statistics departments, universities, and the statistics profession. An opinion on what constitutes legitimate academic activity is given. The roles endorsed are consistent with the view that statistics is both a science and an integral part of scientific methodology and hence that statistics departments need to be concerned with both the development of new methods and the proper application of those methods in the pure and applied sciences. Consulting units serve as an interface between the developers and users of statistical methodology. Communication between developers and users can be carried on effectively through consultants who are actively involved in the education of users and in the education of statistics students, either formally or informally. Such communication is also enhanced when consultants are publishing in both statistics and nonstatistics journals. Routine data analysis is not endorsed as a justifiable academic activity for consulting faculty. Supervision of graduate students on such analyses, however, can be justified. The success a consulting unit can have in playing its roles depends on appropriate funding, staffing, and administration of the unit.     

Harold Silverstone: A Perspective

This paper is a perspective on the scientific contributions of the politically controversial New Zealand-born statistician Harold Silverstone (1915-74). His scientific work — including a classic paper on minimum variance with A.C. Aitken — produced some key results in estimation theory. He also contributed significantly to the practical application of statistics, particularly the development of statistical consulting services in medicine.     

A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple imputation in large surveys

Important empirical information on household behavior and finances is obtained from surveys, and these data are used heavily by researchers, central banks, and for policy consulting. However, various interdependent factors that can be controlled only to a limited extent lead to unit and item nonresponse, and missing data on certain items is a frequent source of difficulties in statistical practice. More than ever, it is important to explore techniques for the imputation of large survey data. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of a Markov chain Monte Carlo multiple imputation procedure and outlines important technical aspects of the application of MCMC-type algorithms to large socio-economic data sets. In an illustrative application it is found that MCMC algorithms have good convergence properties even on large data sets with complex patterns of missingness, and that the use of a rich set of covariates in the imputation models has a substantial effect on the distributions of key financial variables.     

Preparing Statisticians for Careers in Industry: Report of the ASA Section on Statistical Education Committee on Training of Statisticians for Industry

This report provides guidelines for universities to consider in developing programs for training statisticians who will work in industry. Useful information for students who are considering industrial employment is also included. The recommended programs focus on real problems and the statistical theory and methodology that are useful in their solution. Technical competence is only one of many factors that industry considers when hiring and promoting statisticians. When a statistician leaves school, his or her skills and experiences should include statistical knowledge, practical problem solving, consulting practice, and the ability to communicate orally and in writing with nonstatisticians. There are many details that must be worked out (e.g., content of specific courses and organization of consulting internship programs), and it is hoped that the statistical societies and universities will form committees, hold conferences, and develop programs to address these issues further. Many of our recommendations apply more broadly to the training of all types of practicing statisticians.     

Enhancing statistical education by using role-plays of consultations

Summary.  Role-plays in which students act as clients and statistical consultants to each other in pairs have proved to be an effective class exercise. As well as helping to teach statistical methodology, they are effective at encouraging statistical thinking, problem solving, the use of context in applied statistical problems and improving attitudes towards statistics and the statistics profession. Furthermore, they are fun. This paper explores the advantages of using role-plays and provides some empirical evidence supporting their success. The paper argues that there is a place for teaching statistical consulting skills well before the traditional post-graduate qualification in statistics, including to school students with no knowledge of techniques in statistical inference.     

统计数据发布标准化体系研究

 本文通过借鉴标准化理论,应用先进的数据管理技术,探索建立一套既符合我国国情,满足统计工作现代化需要,又适应国际官方统计基本原则的统计数据管理和发布模式。建立了统计数据发布标准化体系,构建了由决策服务体系、宏观监测体系、数据共享体系、公共数据发布体系构成的统计数据发布体系,在智能化数据管理技术的支撑下构建了统计数据发布标准化平台,以此强化统计服务,探索提高统计能力、提高统计数据质量、提高政府统计公信力的新途径。     

Web based resource for Statistical Consultants in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The intention of this article is to highlight sources of web-based reference material and software that will aid consulting statisticians when designing clinical trials. The article includes websites that provide links to explanation of statistical concepts for non-statisticians, regulatory guidelines, and free statistical study design software.     

Providing Consulting Experiences Through Role Playing in a Graduate Statistics Course

An effective method for improving the communication skills of graduate students in statistics and biostatistics is to provide consultations with non‐statistical researchers. Unfortunately, those experiences can be difficult to arrange or occur too infrequently to be reliable. The current study sought to help students develop both written and oral communication skills within an existing graduate biostatistics course by having students partake in role‐playing consultations. Though the class size was small, the students felt these activities helped improve their oral and written communication skills, and made them more aware of a biostatistician's role in consulting. There was also modest improvement in the students perceived function as a consulting biostatistician. Simulated consultations can be an effective educational tool for promoting the development of soft skills necessary for developing successful statisticians, can be implemented in existing courses, and do not require reliance upon external collaborators. Embedding these types of exercises within an existing curriculum can also be a cost‐effective alternative for programs that do not have formal consulting training.     

Some Remarks on Statistical Education

A definition of the subject of statistics is given, and the difference between the chalkboard world of the teacher of statistics and the real world of the experimenter is stressed. An overemphasis on significance testing, hypothesis testing, and decision procedures has led to a de-emphasis of statistical design. The teaching of statistical design theory, statistics teaching in a changing world, the importance of model building, and different approaches to teaching statistics are discussed. Some published materials developed to meet teaching needs and a new type of statistics course are described. Information about special issues in statistical education (teaching and consulting) is presented.     

C73. The diminishing significance of a p-value as the sample size increases

Barnard (1963), Birnbaum (1974), and others have proposed exact inference procedures based on simulation. This article surveys existing results in this general area and fills several important holes, addressing philosophical problems and the matter of determining a simulation size. Applications to multiple comparisons, sequential analysis, and statistical consulting are discussed.     

An expert system for statistical consulting

The authors have developed an expert system for the analysis of variance to provide guidance to the data analyst on preparing data, selecting statistical methods and choosing computer programs. This system queries the user on the type of data, sampling method and design considerations. It then suggests an appropriate analysis of variance routine and statistical package. The system provides help in understanding the computer output and with model evaluation. The primary user is a scientist with some knowledge of statistics. This system gives the user easy access to statistical expertise and frees the consultant from some important but routine tasks. It may also be a tool to train users and statistical consultants. A significant benefit of this exercise was an increased understanding of the statistical strategies used by consultants and the complexity of the statistical consulting process between humans. This paper will focus on the problem formulation, acquisition of the knowledge base, the model structure and educational benefits.     

Questions and Answers

In addition to his contributions to biostatistics and clinical trials, Paul Meier had a long-term interest in the legal applications of statistics. As part of this, he had extensive experience as a statistical consultant. Legal consulting can be a minefield, but as a result of his background, Paul had excellent advice to give to those starting out on how to function successfully in this environment.     

构建新时代现代化统计调查体系的问题研究

通过总结中国现行统计调查体系存在的问题,对统计调查制度与方法等相关环节问题进行研究,提出建立一套与新时代中国特色社会主义相适应的现代化统计调查体系。这套体系将传统的统计调查方法与新式电子化记录的大数据有效融合使用,注重大数据与抽样调查数据及其推断估计方法的结合,在不显著增加整体调查经费的前提下,更加准确、及时、全面和连续地产生各类宏观时间序列调查数据和微观纵向调查数据,推进中国政府统计管理体制的深化改革与发展。     

Seeking useful contribution

This short communication is an attempt to define useful contribution in statistical consulting and to connect it to a collection of favorable attitudes and skills. It stresses the need for adequate education of beginning statisticians to render them capable of contributing effectively to society, business, and research. The communication ends with a list of related articles and publications.     

Teaching Statistical Consulting Before Statistical Methodology

This paper outlines and discusses the advantages of an ‘Introduction to Statistical Consulting’ course (ISC) that exposes students to statistical consulting early in their studies. The course is intended for students before, or while, they study their units in statistical techniques, and assumes only a first‐year introductory statistics unit. The course exposes undergraduate students to the application of statistics and helps develop statistical thinking. An important goal is to introduce students to work as a statistician early in their studies because this motivates some students to study statistics further and provides a framework to motivate the learning of further statistical techniques. The ISC has proved popular with students, and this paper discusses the reasons for this popularity and the benefits of an ISC to statistical education and the statistics profession.