对统计理论中的一些基本问题的看法

《统计研究》丛刊第4辑和《统计研究》1986年第3期发表的冯杞靖同志的《关于统计学的几个基本理论问题》、《应用统计学的科学性质问题》二篇文章,就我国统计学界目前仍在讨论的一些基本问题提出了自己的看法。作者的一个最根本的观点就是,统计科学是方法论科学。数理统计学是一门方法论科学,社会经济统计学是一门方法论科学,由数理统计学和社会经济统计学结合起来的“统计学”,也是一门方法论科学。对此,笔者不敢苟同。     

《统计研究》未来畅想

第100期的《统计研究》正处在世纪的交汇点上,这百期《统计研究》以其高品位、高格调、研究性、创新性、前瞻性、学术性和理论性,已经成为国内统计学科无可争议的最具权威性的学术研究杂志,这百期《统计研究》便是一部中国统计科学发展、繁荣的史诗。展望新的世纪,我想,《统计研究》将在培育、塑造统计学(者)的科学气质上获得更大的成功。所谓学术气质,对统计学家个人而言,是一种治学的态度,一种适宜于进行创造性劳动的秉性,一种做学问的科学习性;对科学家群体而言,则是一种研究氛围,一种开展探索的精神环境(而非物质环境)。科学的发展、学…     

统计要事

香港读者赞扬《中国统计》刊载的文章 7月2日,《中国统计》香港一读者来信,谈到对《中国统计》今年第4期发表的《国外对中国经济实力的几种估算》的看法.该读者认为此文言简意赅,实事求是,指出了各种估算方法的不足之处,对中国的经济实力作了较客观、科学的评论,并随信寄来6月号的《美国科学》杂志中一篇关于各种经济指标的可靠性和可用性的文章,供国家统计局研究参考.《国外对中国经济实力的几种估算》一文是国家统计局国际统计信息中心余芳东编写的.     

对企业所得税制优化的思考

一、我国企业所得税制存在着诸多问题(一)企业所得税立法层次不高我国目前的内资企业所得税,依然停留在国务院以条例形式发布的立法层次。首先,这不符合我国《立法》第8条,关于税收的基本制度只能制定法律的规定;同时也不符合税收法定主义原则。税收法定主义原则之“法”仅指法律,即最高权利机关所立之法,而不以法的其他形式来规定税收,这也是各国通行的惯例。其次,国家税务总     

就《实事求是是研究统计科学问题的指导思想》一文同戴世光先生同志商榷

从1978年以来,戴世光同志接连发表了几篇论文,包括1983年11月在第三次全国统计科学讨论会上提出的《实事求是是研究统计科学问题的指导思想》一文在内,内容和写法,大同小异,目的都是为了重复论证他的“社会经济统计学是一门虚构的科学”的观点。但是,《实事求是是研究统计科学问题的指导思想》一文,与以前发表过的论文比     

人口学研究的又一奇葩──《贵州省人口地图集》

人口学研究的又一奇葩──《贵州省人口地图集》孙兢新在贵州省人口地图集编辑委员会组织下，由贵州省人口普查办公室编撰的《贵州省人口地图集》，已由中国地图出版社出版发行。这是一部具有重要科学价值和实用价值的大型科学参考地图集。它的出版是我国统计学界、人口学...     

认清形势 服务大局 狠抓落实 促进全省统计工作再上新台阶——金汝斌同志在浙江省统计局党组理论学习中心组(扩大)会议上的讲话(摘要)

一、认清形势(一)统计面临反映科学发展的众多新课题、新要求。党的十七届五中全会提出了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》,全国两会也通过了《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,明确了科学发展是主题,加快转变经济发展方式是主线。这一主题与主线,对统计工作提出了新要求。反映科学发展,特别是反映发展方式转变进程,是我们统计改革发展的主方向。     

《统计法》修订的思路及主要内容

《统计法》修订的思路及主要内容国家统计局政策法规司彭勇涛一、《统计法》修订的必要性《中华人民共和国统计法》是第六届全国人民代表大会常委会第三次会议于１９８３年１２月８日通过的。《统计法》颁布十一年来，对于有效地、科学地组织统计工作，保障统计资料的准确...     

认清形势 服务大局 狠抓落实 促进全省统计工作再上新台阶——金汝斌同志在浙江省统计局党组理论学习中心组（扩大）会议上的讲话（摘要）

一、认清形势（一）统计面临反映科学发展的众多新课题、新要求。党的十七届五中全会提出了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》,全国两会也通过了《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,明确了科学发展是主题,加快转变经济发展方式是主线。这一主题与主线,对统计工作提出了新要求。反映科学发展,特别是反映发展方式转变进程,是我们统计改革发展的主方向。     

现代名人（连载）——中西文化交流使者

李约瑟《中国科技史》受其影响 豆浆下油条是一道中国小吃，1942年5月．一位英国人在成都品尝之后竟终生难忘。这位英国人即是科学巨匠李约瑟博士。5月12日这一天，博士在心满意足地品尝过成都美味之后，登上了华西协合大学事务所讲台，他的演讲题目为《中国科学罗与科学思想检讨》。钟情于中国文化的李约瑟，后来写就了一部辉煌巨著《中国科学技术史》，对东两方文化交流产生了不可估量的影响。     

A Study of Statistical Aspects of the Love Canal Environmental Monitoring Study

A major study released in May 1982 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, concluded that a residential area surrounding the Love Canal chemical waste dump site exhibited no clear evidence of Canal-related contamination. Considering EPA study design and statistical methods used in data interpretation, we have reservations regarding the conclusions drawn from the study by the EPA and others. Our reservations focus mainly on the high likelihood of achieving only low power for detecting differences in chemical prevalence between the three sampling areas identified in the study. It is our conclusion that no decision can be reached concerning habitability of this area until a more comprehensive study is completed.     

Study Design in Causal Models

The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing‐data mechanism together with the causal structure and allow the direct application of causal calculus in the estimation of the causal effects. The flow of the study is visualized by ordering the nodes of the causal diagram in two dimensions by their causal order and the time of the observation. Conclusions on whether a causal or observational relationship can be estimated from the collected incomplete data can be made directly from the graph. Causal models with design offer a systematic and unifying view to scientific inference and increase the clarity and speed of communication. Examples on the causal models for a case–control study, a nested case–control study, a clinical trial and a two‐stage case–cohort study are presented.     

On the design of comparative lifetime studies

In designing a study to compare two lifetime distributions, decisions are required about the study size, the proportion of observations in each group and the length of follow-up period. These aspects of study design are examined using a Bayesian approach in which the expected consequences of a particular choice of design are evaluated by the expected gain in infornlation.     

Analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy maternal cohort study, revisited

The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) maternal cohort study provided robust evidence of an enhanced risk of developing BSE for offspring of BSE-affected dams. We present for the first time, but in retrospect, an interim analysis of the BSE maternal cohort study and set it in historical context, some of which has only been revealed through the BSE inquiry. We also consider the implications for design of extending the BSE maternal cohort study once an enhanced risk to exposed calves had been established, to assess the risk to calves born further from the clinical onset of BSE in the dam than those in the original study. We demonstrate that, if a data monitoring committee had been established, conclusions similar to those based on the final results could have been drawn several years before the completion of the BSE maternal cohort study. Further, we conclude that an extension of the cohort study is unlikely to have been commissioned because of the substantial financial investment required, yet low power, and practical difficulties associated with implementation of any worthwhile extension.     

Optimal designs for regional bridging studies using the Bayesian power prior method

As described in the ICH E5 guidelines, a bridging study is an additional study executed in a new geographical region or subpopulation to link or “build a bridge” from global clinical trial outcomes to the new region. The regulatory and scientific goals of a bridging study is to evaluate potential subpopulation differences while minimizing duplication of studies and meeting unmet medical needs expeditiously. Use of historical data (borrowing) from global studies is an attractive approach to meet these conflicting goals. Here, we propose a practical and relevant approach to guide the optimal borrowing rate (percent of subjects in earlier studies) and the number of subjects in the new regional bridging study. We address the limitations in global/regional exchangeability through use of a Bayesian power prior method and then optimize bridging study design with a return on investment viewpoint. The method is demonstrated using clinical data from global and Japanese trials in dapagliflozin for type 2 diabetes.     

Fitting semiparametric accelerated failure time models for nested case–control data

A nested case–control (NCC) study is an efficient cohort-sampling design in which a subset of controls are sampled from the risk set at each event time. Since covariate measurements are taken only for the sampled subjects, time and efforts of conducting a full scale cohort study can be saved. In this paper, we consider fitting a semiparametric accelerated failure time model to failure time data from a NCC study. We propose to employ an efficient induced smoothing procedure for rank-based estimating method for regression parameters estimation. For variance estimation, we propose to use an efficient resampling method that utilizes the robust sandwich form. We extend our proposed methods to a generalized NCC study that allows a sampling of cases. Finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated via an extensive stimulation study. An application to a tumor study illustrates the utility of the proposed method in routine data analysis.     

企业盈余管理的实证研究——以美国体育产业为主营业务的上市公司为例

把以主营业务为体育产业的上市公司同研究公司治理中的影响到公司管理者进行操纵盈余的盈余管理结合起来,探讨目前体育产业类企业的公司治理的状况。通过对相关理论分析,建立研究假设,设计实证模型,利用美国上市公司公布的数据（纽约交易所数据）进行研究。研究发现：在体育产业为主营业务的上市公司中,其盈余管理程度较高,这与这类企业的公司成长性强而造成盈余管理程度高是有直接关系的。     

Type I and Type II error rates in the last observation carried forward method under informative dropout

Dropout is a persistent problem for a longitudinal study. We exhibit the shortcomings of the last observation carried forward method. It produces biased estimates of change in an outcome from baseline to study endpoint under informative dropout. We developed a theoretical quantification of the effect of such bias on type I and type II error rates. We present results for a setup where a subject either completes the study or drops out during one particular interval, and also under the setup in which subjects could drop out at any time during the study. The type I error rate steadily increases when time to dropout decreases or the common sample size increases. The inflation in type I error rate can be substantially high when reasons for dropout in the two groups differ; when there is a large difference in dropout rates between the control and treatment groups and when the common sample size is large; even when dropout subjects have one or two fewer observations than the completers. Similar results are also observed for type II error rates. A study can have very low power when early recovered patients in the treatment group and worsening patients in the control group drop out even near the end of the study.     

Score Tests for Testing Independence in the Zero-Truncated Bivariate Poisson Models

In this study, score test statistics for testing independence in the zero-truncated bivariate Poisson distributions are proposed. The Monte Carlo study shows that the score tests proposed in this article keep the significance level close to the nominal one, but the LR and Wald tests over-reject the null hypothesis when it is true. The score tests for testing independence in the zero-truncated bivariate Poisson regression models are also derived in this study.     

Testing equality of variances for several normal populations

In this study, we develop a test based on computational approach for the equality of variances of several normal populations. The proposed method is numerically compared with the existing methods. The numeric results demonstrate that the proposed method performs very well in terms of type I error rate and power of test. Furthermore we study the robustness of the tests by using simulation study when the underlying data are from t, exponential and uniform distributions. Finally we analyze a real dataset that motivated our study using the proposed test.