贝叶斯方法和频率方法比较研究

频率学派和贝叶斯学派作为统计推理中的两个最重要的方法,对于这两种对立的研究方式的站队选择显然影响着研究者的研究活动。占有霸主地位的频率学派尽管是后来者,显然占有着优势的地位,而今年以来贝叶斯方法的复苏,重新向频率派发起挑战。文章从概率的产生作为开始,简单地介绍了统计的发展历程,并分别对这两种方法选择的实用、重要的可操作标准给予分析,认为两种方法各有利弊,对两种方法的选择应结合实际情况选择。     

Predicting social influence with faction sizes and relative status

Building on a recent theoretical development in the field of sociological social psychology, we develop a formal mathematical model of social influence processes. The extant theoretical literature implies that factions and status should have non-linear effects on social influence, and yet these theories have been evaluated using standard linear statistical models. Our formal model of influence includes these non-linearities, as specified by the theories. We evaluate the fit of the formal model using experimental data. Our results indicate that a one-parameter mathematical model fits the experimental data. We conclude with the implications of our research and a discussion of how it may be used as an impetus for further work on social influence processes.     

我国社会保险降费与征收主体改革的政策效果研究

自1951年《中华人民共和国劳动保险条例》实施以来,我国社会保险征缴体制历经4个改革阶段,结合政策调整背景,在回顾社会保险征缴体制改革历程的基础上,从社会保险征收主体转变和参保缴费两个方面分析了近年来社会保险征缴体制改革的政策效果发现：首先,税务部门统征社会保险费后面临着相关法规不完善、征收优势不够显著和政策弹性不足的难题;其次,社会保险缴费比例仍然偏高且养老保险基金财务可持续性压力呈上升趋势;最后,面对劳动力市场多元化发展态势以及接踵而来的政策变革,企业在社会保险政策认知与管理上将面临新的挑战。因此,从加强税务部门统征效果、设计社会保险缴费综合改革方案和提升企业社会保险综合管理质量三个维度为我国社会保险征缴体制的完善提出政策建议。     

浙江与苏、粤两省社会发展水平之比较研究

省际社会发展水平的比较研究能促使区域政府更加全面、准确、及时地掌握本地区与类似地区相关领域的实际情况与优劣态势,进一步促进其提高本地区的社会发展水平.本研究以相对权威的社会发展综合评价指标体系及据此形成的一些研究报告为基础,结合中国统计年鉴、民政统计年鉴等资料,从历时性和共时性两个维度,对2005-2009年浙江与苏、粤两省社会发展水平进行了比较研究.研究发现:浙江在总体水平上相较于苏、粤两省处于领先地位,但是发展速度则处于相对较缓状态;具体到四大领域,浙江相对于苏、粤两省在生活水平领域大幅领先且优势明显,人口发展领域稳定领先但优势不大,公共服务领域相对领先但有反复,社会和谐领域则比较滞后且进展不大.在此基础上,本研究就继续促进浙江社会发展提出了一些建议.     

Measuring the level of social support using latent class analysis

Different instruments have been used to measure social support in epidemiological studies of which the most widely used is the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Scale (SSS-MOS). However, these studies lack measures of the level of social support on health risks. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to distinguish subgroups with different levels of perceived social support and tested the consistency of these subgroups by their associations with the prevalence of Common Mental Disorders (CMD). This is a cross-sectional study of 1013 mothers living in the city of Salvador, Brazil in which psychosocial data were collected through home visits using the SSS-MOS and the Self Reporting Questionnaire-20. For each dimension of social support analysed here, we selected models with two classes using LCA. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between participants’ perceived social support and the prevalence of CMD to verify the consistency of the groups defined by LCA. There was a clear difference in the reporting of perceived social support between those classified as high or low using LCA. The probability of perceiving several types of social support was lower in the subgroup classified as low level of social support (13.7–59.8%), and it was much higher in the group classified as high level of social support (84.3–98%). A greater prevalence of CMD was found among mothers with lower levels of social support. LCA seems to be a useful tool to improve measurement of perceived social support by separation into two levels in which the lower level is associated with an increased prevalence of CMD.     

证伪主义、历史主义与经济科学的标准

证伪主义对科学的和非科学的经济学命题提出了根本性的分界标准,从而是经济学认识论上的一次革命。但是将证伪主义应用于经济学认识论时,存在着证伪与证实,抽象与具体,目标与手段, 规范与实证方面的难题。就经济学方法论而言,科学研究纲领和范式革命有助于解决证伪主义的很多困境,其中最突出的是层次性和时效性不足。证伪主义、科学研究纲领和历史主义的范式说完全可以结合起来以互补,支撑经济学的认识方法论。     

“Mainstreaming” content analysis in social science: Methodological advantages,obstacles, and solutions

The history of content analysis is reviewed and reasons for its continuing underutilization are identified. The technique's isolation from mainstream social science results in low-quality studies and methodological underdevelopment. Still, advantages of the method indicate it has great potential for social science. Specific suggestions are made for applying established research techniques to content analysis. Sampling, research design, reliability and validity assessment, concept operationalization, and related principles and techniques are illustrated with a content analysis study of religious belief popularization. The relative merits of coding manifest content versus latent, thematic analysis are assessed. Manifest characteristics can be coded more reliably but thematic indicators provide greater measurement efficiency in the example. Implications for computerized coding are discussed. Inference from communication texts and the value of empirically studying communication patterns for social scientific objectives are presented as complementing research on individuals and social structures.     

Race, social class, and student engagement in middle school English classrooms

Student level data on participation in classroom discourse and student effort on assignments in 117 middle school English classrooms are used to investigate the social determinants of student engagement in classroom instruction. Social identity theories of race, social class, and attachment to school, and research in the social psychology of achievement motivation both suggest differential levels of student engagement among diverse student groups. Using multilevel models, the author investigates the relationship between classroom context and students’ levels of engagement. Levels of engagement among black and low SES students are mostly insensitive to classroom context, suggesting there is little collective action directed at fostering anti-school norms among these student groups. However, consistent with research in the social psychology of achievement motivation, students who begin class with weaker reading and writing skills are less likely to be engaged, setting the stage for a cycle of reduced achievement growth.     

农村社会治安问题研究综述

对农村社会治安问题的学术研究始于20世纪90年代。经过20多年的探索,学者们已达成共识,认为农村社会治安问题事关整个社会的稳定。近些年来的研究表明,农村社会治安现状令人堪忧,造成此种现状的原因也是多种多样。研究者们纷纷提出对策,力求积极解决农村社会治安问题。文章通过对已有研究文献的整理归纳,从治安现状、原因分析和解决策略三方面入手,进行了总结归纳,并对现有研究做出了简要评析。     

Ability and mobility: The relative influence of skills and social origin on social mobility

The recent PIACC data offer us the first ever opportunity to identify the relative salience of abilities versus social origin in comparative social mobility research. Sampling 21 countries, we identify the degree of meritocratic selection by estimating the relative influence of social origin versus individual cognitive and social skills. We pay particular attention to the possibility of skills combinations as regards both upward and downward mobility. Social skills may compensate for weak cognitive abilities, or vice-versa; and what are the added effects of commanding strong skills on both counts? This is, as far as we know, the first time that comparative mobility research has examined such skills-complementarities. As in previous research we, too, uncover a significantly more egalitarian mobility pattern in the Nordic countries. This however obtains also for Canada and the Netherlands. A unique feature of Scandinavia is its asymmetric profile: significant upward mobility for those of low social origin, but surprisingly little downward mobility among those of privileged origins. Contrary to expectations, this cannot be ascribed to skills compensation. We find, however, that social skills play an important role for upward mobility among low-SES sons.     

The calibration and cross-modal validation of ratio scales of political opinion in survey research

The aims of this paper are twofold: first, to set the ratio scaling of opinion in perspective by reviewing a series of laboratory and field experiments designed to build and validate ratio scales of political opinion; and second, to report in detail on the development of calibration procedures designed to obtain proportional judgments from respondents in a national survey.Paralleling explicitly a psychophysical paradigm established for the scaling of physical continua, these studies demonstrate that (1) the paradigm can be adapted to the scaling of sociopolitical opinions; (2) two measures suitable for use in surveys-magnitude estimation and line production-satisfy established psychophysical criteria for valid measures of response; (3) survey respondents can and do make reliable ratio estimates of strength of opinion; (4) scales measuring strength of political support, which are derived from the magnitude and line estimates of survey respondents, match closely the support scales derived in laboratory and field tests using such physical response modalities as handgrip and sound pressure; and (5) these calibration procedures can be incorporated in national opinion surveys.These results, especially the successful move from the laboratory to a conventional survey setting, provide social and behavioral scientists with a technique for generating response data that meet stringent measurement requirements. The calibration procedures described constitute a social metric that will enable researchers to test functional hypotheses in a more rigorous manner than is possible employing alternative scaling procedures.     

加拿大城市化的历史进程与特点

加拿大的城市化与欧洲和北美历史进程有内在密切联系 ,也形成某些特殊优势和政策。在加拿大 (尤其西部 )城市发展中 ,地方因素和社区精英起了关键作用。作为一个移民国家 ,加拿大不同地区的城市化进程也取决于人口流动和经济增长等因素。城市化反映了新型社会组织结构的扩展 ,是一种高度地方化的组织向一种复杂的综合性地域体系演进的过程 ,以此满足了社会发展的需要     

Living life for others and/or oneself: The social development of life orientations

A range of social science research suggests Americans are becoming more self-oriented over time, and that this focus comes at a cost to general concern with community. Examining data from a large-scale national study of college students, we explore this influential hypothesis on two fronts. First, we empirically investigate whether people who are especially concerned with personal achievement are necessarily less concerned about contributing to their community. Contrary to most iterations of the individualism thesis, we find that significant numbers of individuals are concerned with both personal success and political/social involvement. To explore further, we expand this supposed single dimension into a fourfold typology, showing that many people are ‘idealists’ (concerned with both self and others) and ‘apathists’ (relatively unconcerned with either). After broadening the taken-for-granted egoist/altruist continuum, we explore antecedent social structural, aspirational, and social psychological factors that predict membership in these value preference groups. The findings from our preliminary model suggest that these broad orientations are shaped by a complex array of factors across multiple domains.     

云南边疆民族地区特色外经贸发展探析

加快云南边疆的发展 ,对于保持我国西南地区政治和社会稳定、保持民族团结和保障边疆安全 ,体现社会主义制度的优越性具有重大意义。因此 ,充分发挥云南边疆优势 ,发展云南特色外经贸事业显得尤为重要。本文从云南边疆民族地区特色外经贸的发展现状出发 ,分析了有利条件及不利因素 ,并对进一步推动云南边疆民族地区特色外经贸的发展提出了若干建议。     

Assessing the effect of social desirability on nativism attitude responses

Attempts to measure and analyze public opinion attitudes toward racial/ethnic minorities often confront the “social desirability” problem: those who have prejudiced attitudes are rarely willing to admit them to surveyors. Instead, they may be more likely to give a socially acceptable answer rather an accurate reflection of their views. Previous research has clearly established that this effect presents a challenge for accurately measuring self-reported racial and policy attitudes that primarily affect African–Americans. It is less clear, however, how it might affect self-reported responses to attitudes dealing with Latinos and immigration. This study thus seeks to analyze the extent to which social desirability may affect survey measures of perceived levels of cultural threat (nativism). Results from two separate analyses using the Crowne–Marlowe “social desirability scale” and a survey “list experiment” demonstrate that social desirability is indeed a concern for accurately measuring nativism in the American public, but that it exerts an opposite effect from what has previously been observed: nativist attitudes tend to be over-reported in opinion surveys.     

以资产为本的流动人口社会保护政策研究

改革开放以来,随着城镇化的快速发展和政府执政理念的转变以及我国人口形势的变化,我国流动人口政策发生了明显的转变,尤其是流动人口社会保护政策经历了从无到有再到逐步完善的演变,基本形成以社会保险为基础、住房保障为支撑、其他福利为补充的流动人口社会保护政策体系。但目前在以收入为本理念下实施的相关社会保护政策还存在诸多困境与难点,而以资产为本的理念为解决流动人口社会保护问题提供了一剂良药。以资产为本的理念注重个人资产的建设和积累,注重制度和政策的顶层设计以及完善的政策配套体系,并综合教育、就业或创业和健康医疗等多部门政策;应以建立个人或家庭综合账户为基石、以实现个人账户的自由流动为突破口、以提高个人账户管理能力为关键、以加强个人资产建设为重点、以完善配套政策为保证构建我国以资产为本的流动人口社会保护政策体系。     

论社会保障对社会公平的保障

建设社会主义和谐社会已经成为全社会的共同理想,和谐社会的重要体现就是社会公平,也是社会保障追求的目标。改革开放以来,我国的社会保障体系虽然得到不断完善和发展,但仍存在着一些问题。为了解决这些问题,不仅要树立社会公平的价值理念和政策取向,要弥补社会保障制度的漏洞和缺陷。逐步建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系,而且还要完善社会救助制度,发展慈善事业。只有这样,才能保障社会公平的进一步实现,也才能最终实现和谐社会的目标。     

Social isolation,survey nonresponse,and nonresponse bias: An empirical evaluation using social network data within an organization

Survey researchers have long hypothesized that social isolation negatively affects the probability of survey participation and biases survey estimates. Previous research, however, has relied on proxy measures of isolation, such as being a marginalized group member within a population. We re-examine the relationship between social isolation and survey participation using direct measures of social isolation derived from social network data; specifically, instrumental research and expressive friendship connections among faculty within academic departments. Using a reconceptualization of social isolation, we find that social network isolation is negatively associated with unit response. Among women (a numerical minority group within the organization), we further find that social group isolation (i.e., lacking instrumental network connections to men, the majority group in the organization) is negatively associated with survey participation. Finally, we show that some survey estimates are systematically biased due to nonparticipation from socially isolated people.     

心理传记学研究综述

随着人文社会科学的发展,研究范式也日益转变,心理传记学作为一种研究范式已受到大多数学者的关注。探讨心理传记学的概念、国内外的历史发展、研究方法、研究现状及前人研究的不足与展望等,发现在研究过程中创建新理论才是关键。在未来的研究中,应该让心理传记学走向大众,走向生活世界。