中国城市的社会阶层与基层人大选举

与强调用民主价值观、政治效能感解释中国基民人大选举中人们投票行为的思路不同,作者将阶层政治论的基本逻辑用于解释投票行为。该理论的理性选择解释把阶层利益作为核心阐明变量,而阶层政治的社会心理解释则强调阶层认同的不可或缺性。运用逻辑斯蒂回归及检验模型间系数差异的自助法对CGSS2006数据的分析结果,支持了基于这两种解释的研究假设。公职新中产、市场新中产、小业主与自雇者均比工人更有可能参加投票;而这又由其收入更高、更认同中产阶层来阐明;收入越高越认同中产阶层;收入越高、越认同中产阶层就越有可能参加投票。归纳这些研究发现,并进一步整合理性选择与社会心理解释,作者认为阶层利益不但是联系阶层地位与投票行为的机制,还通过阶层认同阐明阶层地位与投票行为间的因果关联;阶层政治论是分析当前中国民众政治参与的一种有效理论工具。     

“洋八股”与社会科学规范

随着中国社会科学的快速发展,规范化和国际化的讨论被提上议事日程。本文旨在分析讨论西方社会科学经验研究的方法论范式。通过分析总结国际一流社会科学杂志之范文,本文勾勒出经验社会科学研究的八个组成部分:问题、理论(文献)、假设、数据、测量、方法、发现和结论。这种范式反映后实证主义逻辑,我权称其为洋八股结构。文中重点分析问题、理论和假设三股,讨论提出好问题,做好文献分析的指导性原则;强调假设乃连接理论与经验之桥梁,并分析建构假设的几种常见策略和形式。最后,讨论了洋八股与本土化之关系。     

证伪在社会科学中可能吗?

本文讨论在社会科学中影响广泛的波普尔“证伪主义”方法论,认为证伪主义除了受到自然科学哲学的批评外,更不适合于基于概率性因果关系的社会科学。本文讨论了在社会科学领域中使用证伪来判断社会理论的科学性的四个问题:(1)理论的辅助性假说使得证伪在逻辑上不可能;(2)社会科学命题复杂的因果机制对证伪形成挑战;(3)统计命题不能被单个反例证伪;(4)限界条件并不能挽救证伪主义。基于上述讨论本文认为,只有严格地发展理论,而不是寄希望于证伪的简便性,才能推动社会科学理论的进步。     

环境关心的性别差异分析

本文基于2003年中国综合社会调查数据,分析了公众环境关心的性别差异。作者检验了关于环境关心之性别差异的社会化假设与社会结构假设,指出这些假设在本研究中不能得到支持。在引入环境知识这一中介变量的基础上作者认为,应当重新反思关于环境关心之性别差异的理论解释,关注社会化过程与社会结构位置影响的两面性,探索环境关心性别差异生成的具体机制。     

均衡人口城市化实现过程及其模型初探

目前的城市化理论,大多是关于城市化的动力机制、发展规律、发展道路及其政策的研究。城市化机制回答的是城市化的原因;而城市化发展规律的理论,一般是对城市化的历史及其经验数据的总结,未能从城市化实现的本质过程及其量化模型研究中给予理论上的解释。正如山田浩之所指出的“谈论‘城市政策’……也还要弄明白城市化的过程和机制。不明白这些问题,是不会找出城市政策和城市经营的正确方向。”本篇对这一实现过程进行初步探讨。 城市化的研究不能只停留在一般的机制与过程的分析,要把城市化实现的本质过程与经济增长、技术变动、收入分配及与之相关的诸多变量联系起来,进行逻辑分析,建立起     

集体行动、搭便车理论与形式社会学方法

本文从奥尔森的搭便车理论出发,总结了形式模型在集体行动和社会运动研究中的发展及应用前景,并在此基础上提出如下观点1.经验事实与其他理论不能是形式模型的评判基础,同样,形式模型也不能用来解释或预测经验现象特别是复杂的经验现象;2.评判一个形式模型的基础只能是模型的前提假设与逻辑结构,而一个形式模型重要与否,则在于该模型是否揭示了社会中普遍存在的问题,以及该模型的出发点和假设是否抓住了人类社会活动结构的关键性本质。奥尔森的搭便车理论之所以重要,是因为它抓住了人类活动的核心——对公共物品的普遍追求,以及决定这一追求成功与否的一个最为重要的变量——群体规模。成功的形式模型一般都是一些对于历史上长期流传下来的成语或民间智慧的数学或逻辑总结,而绝大多数已发表的形式模型因不得此要领而流于数学游戏。     

计算扎根：定量研究的理论生产方法

扎根理论的归纳逻辑和避免理论先入为主的原则与传统定量研究的演绎逻辑和假说检验大相径庭。在回顾传统定量研究理论生产局限的基础上，本文提出一种以定量方式直接助产理论的“计算扎根”方法：借助机器学习和归因算法，按照因果是可预测性的充分不必要条件之原理，根据对因变量的预测力筛选出以往研究未曾关注的自变量，以提出新的理论假说。本文对计算扎根的基本思路、逻辑前提、方法基础进行了系统阐述，并基于实际案例进行了演示。该方法弥补了定量研究理论生产的不足，在理论、学科、知识体系和社会治理等方面具有重要价值。     

对哈里森·怀特市场模型的讨论:解析、探源与改进

哈里森·怀特的“市场从哪里来?”一文在经济社会学的市场理论中占有重要地位,怀特从社会学的视角对经济学的基础领地——市场——进行了结构主义的重新构建。然而,该文发表至今已整整四分之一世纪,社会学界对怀特市场模型的理论探讨却甚为有限。本文尝试深入到怀特建构生产市场模型的整个过程,重新疏理、解释模型的构建逻辑;探寻该模型与经济学、社会学(尤其是社会网络理论),以及自然科学(主要是物理学和生态学)的理论方法渊源;探讨怀特的市场理论在理论假设、模型表述与方法上存在的问题与不足,并提出对模型进行改进与完善的部分初步方案。     

华人社会中的社会关系网络——社会网络中的中等关系与本土化解释

本文从专家的调查数据中发现问题,针对社会网络领域的权威格兰诺维特和边燕杰分别提出的弱关系假设和强关系假设,相应提出了自己对中等关系的观点,认为在华人社会中,中等关系其实发挥着广泛的作用.并按照以下逻辑构思了全文:关系是动态的;动态是需求平衡的;平衡论;中等关系是对平衡论的很好解释和说明;中等关系得以发挥广泛作用.     

传统逻辑定义理论新探

传统逻辑定义理论有以下欠缺：只涵盖内涵定义，没有包括外延定义；无法科学的解释痞词定义；有的论著将定义的对象扩展至命题。以上观点值得商榷。笔者认为，定义的对象是概念或者语词。所谓定义是用简短的语句对概念的内涵或外延的揭示，或者对语词的意义给以解释的逻辑方法。     

TOWARD A REVISED FRAMEWORK FOR EXAMINING BELIEFS ABOUT THE CAUSES OF POVERTY

This study uses survey data from Baltimore, Maryland to assess predictions from the dominant ideology thesis and the public arenas theory concerning causal beliefs about three specific types of poverty—welfare dependency, homelessness and impoverished migrant laborers. Findings indicate that the incidence and determinants of causal beliefs are more complex than has been reached in prior "generic' poverty research and the findings provide greater support for the public arenas theory. Three findings are of particular note: (1) sample respondents have distinctive causal beliefs for different types of poverty: for welfare dependency, individualistic beliefs are dominant; for homelessness, structural causes are emphasized; a causal "middle ground' is most popular for impoverished migrant laborers (2) status characteristics do not operate as determinants of causal beliefs in a straightfor-ward fashion for any of the three poverty types and, (3) variables that measure types of exposure to, and perceived racial composition of, the poor are also significant determinants of causal beliefs. The effects of variables that measure perceived racial composition are particularly strong and the pattern of "color coding' suggests that racial prejudice shapes causal beliefs about the plight of the poor. The implications of the findings for the mobility opportunities of the three impoverished groups are discussed.     

Searching for the Starting Points of Scientific Inquiry: Durkheim's Rules of Sociological Method and Schopenhauer's Philosophy*

Durkheim's methodological classic is frequently read from Kantian, positivistic, or other Enlightenment contexts despite the fact that Durkheim criticizes these doctrines. Durkheim also tends to be read as a deductive analyst. Using Schopenhauer's philosophy as an alternative starting point in reading the Rules, it is demonstrated that Schopenhauer and Durkheim agree that perceptual, inductive knowledge of “things” is superior to conceptual, deductive knowledge; that causal explanations are merely phenomenal; and that the one, well-designed experiment is sufficient for the establishment of scientific laws. Durkheim's distinction between the normal and the pathological is also addressed in this context. The implications of Durkheim's focus on induction are discussed with regard to its similarity to the works of Claude Bernard, Florian Znaniecki, and Max Weber, as well as current epistemological crises in sociology.     

Causal Thinking and Computer Literacy

Summary

Professional practice in the human services often is based on implicit theories of causality regarding assessment of a problem and related interventions in a client's life. Complex applications of computing to this kind of professional activity require literacy about the underlying processes by which individuals make causal judgments. This paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding three components of causal thinking, the causal field, cues-to-causality, and causal theories, and their relationship to computing applications. For each component, several cognitive heuristics are described that can help individuals understand the components of causal thinking and link them to computer applications that might enhance the quality of professional practice.     

Oxidative mutagenesis, mismatch repair, and aging

A PubMed search for the term "oxidative stress" yields over 29,000 articles published on the subject over the past 10 years; more than 2000 of these articles also include the term "aging" in their title or abstract. Many theories of aging predict causal roles for oxidative stress in the myriad of pathological changes that occur as a function of age, including an increasing propensity to develop cancer. A possible link between aging and cancer is the induction and accumulation of somatic mutations caused by oxidative stress. This Review focuses on small mutational events that are induced by oxidative stress and the role of mismatch repair (MMR) in preventing their formation. It also discusses a possible inhibitory effect of oxidative stress on MMR. We speculate that a synergistic interaction between oxidative damage to DNA and reduced MMR levels will, in part, account for an accumulation of small mutational events, and hence cancer, with aging.     

A DIAGNOSTIC ROUTINE FOR THE DETECTION OF CONSEQUENTIAL HETEROGENEITY OF CAUSAL EFFECTS

Least squares regression estimates of causal effects are conditional-variance-weighted estimates of individual-level causal effects. In this paper, we extract from the literature on counterfactual causality a simple nine-step routine to determine whether or not the implicit weighting of regression has generated a misleading estimate of the average causal effect. The diagnostic routine is presented along with a detailed and original demonstration, using data from the 2002 and 2004 waves of the Education Longitudinal Study, for a contested but important causal effect in educational research: the effect of Catholic schooling, in comparison to public schooling, on the achievement of high school students in the United States.     

Die Sch?tzung von kausalen Effekten: überlegungen zu Methoden der Kausalanalyse anhand von Kontexteffekten in der Schule

This article discusses the problem of causal inference based on contextual peer effects in education. For this purpose, I first introduce the counterfactual approach to causality and the fundamental problem of causal inference. Subsequently, experiments and a number of statistical methods are discussed as possible approaches to estimate causal effects. In particular, conditioning on observables using common linear regression models as well as matching procedures (such as propensity score matching), fixed-effects models, the difference-in-difference approach, instrumental variables, and the regression discontinuity design are discussed. The introduction of these methods is neither focused on the mathematical background nor on the estimation procedure but rather on the general logic and the assumptions connected with a causal interpretation of the estimated effects. The paper closes with an analysis of compositional peer effects in German elementary schools to illustrate the adequate treatment of selection processes.     

Alcohol and Sexual Health Behavior: “What We Know and How We Know It”

Alcohol, despite salutary associations with sexuality, has been implicated in sexual health problems. This review examines the relationship between alcohol and outcomes related to sexual health. Methodological considerations limiting causal assertions permissible with nonexperimental data are discussed, as are advantages of experimental methods. Findings from laboratory experiments are reviewed evaluating causal effects of acute alcohol intoxication on a variety of outcomes, including sexual arousal, sexual desire, orgasm, and sexual risk behaviors related to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Several variables exerting mediating and moderating influences are identified. It is concluded that acute alcohol intoxication is capable of exerting a causal impact on multiple constituent components of sexual responding related to sexual health. Both alcohol expectancy and alcohol myopia theories have been supported as explanations for these causal effects. Furthermore, for sexual risk behavior, noteworthy recent developments include research highlighting the importance of women’s sexual victimization history and men’s condom use resistance. Limitations and implications associated with this body of research are also discussed.     

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS WITH TIME‐VARYING TREATMENTS AND TIME-VARYING OUTCOMES*

We develop an approach to identifying and estimating causal effects in longitudinal settings with time–varying treatments and time–varying outcomes. The classic potential outcome approach to causal inference generally involves two time periods: units of analysis are exposed to one of two possible values of the causal variable, treatment or control, at a given point in time, and values for an outcome are assessed some time subsequent to exposure. In this paper, we develop a potential outcome approach for longitudinal situations in which both exposure to treatment and the effects of treatment are time-varying. In this longitudinal setting, the research interest centers not on only two potential outcomes, but on a whole matrix of potential outcomes, requiring a complicated conceptualization of many potential counterfactuals. Motivated by sociological applications, we develop a simplification scheme—a weighted composite causal effect that allows identification and estimation of effects with a number of possible solutions. Our approach is illustrated via an analysis of the effects of disability on subsequent employment status using panel data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.     

Weighting regressions by propensity scores

Regressions can be weighted by propensity scores in order to reduce bias. However, weighting is likely to increase random error in the estimates, and to bias the estimated standard errors downward, even when selection mechanisms are well understood. Moreover, in some cases, weighting will increase the bias in estimated causal parameters. If investigators have a good causal model, it seems better just to fit the model without weights. If the causal model is improperly specified, there can be significant problems in retrieving the situation by weighting, although weighting may help under some circumstances.