Uses of Time-Series Designs for Formative Program Evaluation

Potential uses of time-series designs for formative program evaluation are illustrated, and the relationship between single-case experiments and quasi-experimental time-series designs is discussed. Four variations of time-series design are presented: interrupted time-series with follow-up, replicated time-series, step-wise time-series, and time-series with reversal patterns. Advantages and limitations of each design are considered in relation to program evaluation, and attention is given to special problems in using time-series data in organizational research.     

毛泽东对抗战相持阶段认识的变化及其原因探析

对抗战发展阶段的判断,是我党制定政策的基础,所以毛泽东和中共中央十分重视。毛泽东对战略相持阶段到来的认识,经历了1938年11月从战略防御到战略相持的过渡时期,到1939年6月＂较过去的战略退却更加严重＂,再到1939年9月＂相持阶段已经到来＂的发展变化过程,从中体现了毛泽东对国际国内局势的判断以及我党为坚持抗战、争取时局好转的不懈努力和坚定信念。     

广州：城市博物馆的呼唤

城市博物馆是一座城市的文化之根,历史的记忆与良知,更是未来的基石。凝聚一个国家或民族,需要的是文化的认同以及对未来之保证。博物馆也是这样的认同与保证。打造好它们,需要几代乃至几十代人的精心荟萃。     

更富裕是否意味着更幸福?基于横截面时间序列数据的分析(2003-2013)

四十年前,经济学家伊斯特林提出了“幸福感悖论”:短时期内个人和国家的财富水平与幸福感都正向相关,而在长期背景下,经济增长并不会显著提高整体幸福感水平。本文使用横跨十年的全国代表性横截面时间序列数据直接检验了财富与幸福感的关系,结果证实了“幸福感悖论”。研究发现,虽然在短时期内,无论是家庭人均收入还是省份的人均生产总值都与幸福感有显著的正相关,但在经济高速发展的十年内(2003-2013),省份人均生产总值的变化与幸福感的变化之间并没有显著相关。     

Does globalization drive long-run inequality within OECD countries? A guide to policy making

We analyse around four decades of annual time-series data revisiting the long-run relationship between globalization and income inequality for 24 OECD member countries across different geographical regions, applying the Yamamoto-Kurozumi multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) framework. We observe that rapid globalization is not the key cause of rising long-run intra country inequality. This result is obtained by controlling for growth, terms of trade, minimum wage legislation, and unionization and found robust by further controlling education. Most of the countries in our study with a long-run relationship reveal the robust reverse causal impact of rising globalization on reducing inequality. Our impulse response breakdown across various sub-components of globalization suggests that economic globalization is not a primary contributor to long-run inequality for developed industrialized countries. Our framework guides future research to concentrate more on country-specific relationships, with policy guidance tailored for each country based on their level of economic development and institutional quality.     

Data Evaluation for Intrasubject-Replication Research

The data from intrasubject-replication research usually are evaluated through visual inspection. When behavior shows little or no wend over time prior to treatment and day-to-day variability is slight, and when trearmenr effects are marked, visual criteria can be readily applied. In many situations where visual inspection may not detect changes, statistical analyses provide a useful tool for evaluating the effects of treatment. The statistical rests for single-case research depart from the more familiar analyses used in between-group research. Different analyses are needed in part because of the special characteristics of time-series data. The present paper discusses visual inspection and statistical analyses of intrasubject-replication reseorch. In addition, two statistical analyses, time-series analysis and a nonparametric ranking procedure, are described and illustrated with ABAB and multiple-baseline designs. Guidelines for using statistical tests and problems they may present for clinical research are discussed.     

The prospects for higher domestic savings rates in Latin America

This paper analyzes the prospects for raising domestic saving rates to permit increased investment and/or reduced dependence on foreign-capital inflow in Latin America. We analyze the question of rising saving rates by applying a random-coefficients approach: treating the parameters estimated in time-series analysis for individual countries as observations drawn from an international cross-section of savings behavior. Correlation analysis is then applied to clarify the conditions associated with international differences in savings parameters across a sample of 21 Latin American countries.     

Evil and the Instigation of Collective Violence

Literature on the psychology of evil has tended to focus on the motivations of perpetrators of collective violence, but almost no work has examined the special role of instigators. This article examines some of the differences between instigators and perpetrators of collective violence with a focus on Osama bin Laden. Compared with perpetrators, instigators are more powerful and less interchangeable, and they tend to rely on some form of nationalism to rally support. The article also examines the attributional bases of evil and how differences of construal can contribute to an escalation of violence.     

Bilingual Social Workers in Mental Health Service Provision: Cultural Competence,Language, and Work Experience

Many agencies actively recruit bilingual social workers. This study presents the reactions of 10 Chinese bilingual social workers to the expectations and demands of their agencies. The study employed a qualitative design with a phenomenological approach. The participants’ responses provide insight into how they manage ethnic and cultural mental health issues in Chinese populations. This study aims to improve social service delivery for clients with limited English proficiency by identifying effective, culturally competent services. The findings suggest that when hiring bilingual social workers, it is just as important for them to be culturally competent as it is for them to be an ethnic or language match with the client base. Having all of these qualities will result in staff members who can provide more effective services by making accurate diagnoses and identifying appropriate treatment plans. In addition to employing bilingual social workers, it is important to maintain good supervision as this will allow supervisees to have a unique perspective on what is involved in providing effective delivery of services to clients with limited English proficiency. Implications for research, practice, and policy are discussed.     

When ‘political demand’ meets ‘video-politics’

ABSTRACT

The emergence of a ‘macro-personification of politics’ within the political field of Aotearoa New Zealand alters the manner by which political demand needs to now operate if it is to succeed as a form of tactical strategy in political activism. A particular analytical initiative is identified as being central to success under these conditions, whereby given political demands enlarge from a ‘state of singularity’ to become ‘complex discursive demands’. Key to that initiative is the ‘dialectic of appearances’ and the ‘labour of the negative’ associated with the ideas-work of Hegel. This article identifies how this dynamic was playing out within a key event in the anti-surveillance movement of 2013, the August public rally in the Auckland Town Hall.     

历史演义小说人物性格特征的审美文化探因

:演义人物的高度理想化 ,是作者在塑造人物时 ,受英雄史观、道德史观的左右 ,将人物视为社会政治理想和人格理想的艺术载体以及民众学习的榜样导致的 ;而人物的类型化 ,则不仅是人物理想化的结果 ,同时也与演义小说以情节为中心 ,从事件的角度来写人 ,人物在小说中扮演着固定的角色 ,演义因袭宋元以来戏曲、讲史的人物造型原则 ,迎合读者大众对英雄人物的审美期待等因素有关     

The complex politics of catastrophe economics

The purpose of this essay is to explore the implications for public policy of the assumption that policy makers exhibit the same cognitive and perceptual problems as other citizens regarding catastrophic events. The key conclusion is that the same factors that cause citizens to behave inefficiently in preparing for and responding to disasters also will cause inefficiencies in policies concerning catastrophic events. Among the more important expected pathologies of disaster policies are: (1) a failure to balance benefits and costs at the margin for different types of disasters, due to cognitive pathologies such as availability and overconfidence; (2) a tendency for policy to underinvest in protection and overinvest in response; and (3) a skepticism for policies based on sound insurance principles for spreading costs and assessing claims.     

Practitioner Competence in Social Work

Practitioner competence is becoming an increasingly important priority within the social work profession. A skill training program designed to promote practice competence was developed to examine problematic situations for social workers. Previous training programs have emphasized basic skills but have not attempted to teach skills in specific problematic situations. This pilot training program was evaluated using a time-series design replicated across four subjects. Results show that students made gains on all measures after the introduction of the training. These results suggest that social work students can enhance their practice skills and competence through training of this nature.     

Are baby‐boomers healthy enough to keep working? Health as a mediator of extended labour force participation

One strategy to reduce the economic impact of structural ageing is to increase and/or extend the workforce participation of older workers. Currently, a large proportion of this group consists of post‐World War II baby‐boomers (1946–1965) whose characteristics, experiences and attitudes differ markedly from their predecessors. Maintaining good health underpins strategies to extend workforce participation among baby‐boomers but there is little hard evidence supporting the assumption that baby‐boomers are generally in good health compared to previous generations and will, therefore, be able to work longer. Using a dataset that includes biomedical and self‐reported health for a representative sample of South Australian baby‐boomers, we analyse the extent to which current labour force participation is mediated by health. We find that health is a significant factor in workforce exits. Respondents with fair‐to‐poor self‐rated health, or with diabetes, arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or cardiovascular disease, were more likely to be retired or unable to work, and around 10 per cent of older baby‐boomers (born 1946–1955) who have left the workforce rate their health as poor or fair. The data suggest that these patterns are likely to be replicated in younger baby‐boomers (born 1956–1965).     

市场社会中社会参与的路径问题——关系信任还是普遍信任

已有研究多数认为市场经济、社会参与有助于普遍信任的建立,“关系”则阻碍这种信任的形成。基于CGSS2005数据,本文应用结构方程模型和多层次线性模型分析了市场经济、社会参与和关系信任对普遍信任的多重影响。研究表明：以亲属信任为核心的关系信任对普遍信任具有消极影响;当社会组织成员间信任仍是一种关系信任时,社会参与对普遍信任也呈现出消极作用;市场经济发展能够提高普遍信任,但同时推动了“关系”的使用,从而使得当代中国的市场经济与普遍信任间存在着相反的双向影响。因此,在经济建设中必须进一步推动社会参与。社会参与不仅仅要关注于组织的增长,也需要在制度层面上给予“跨关系”成员交往更多的支持。     

De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist

De Finetti's treatise on the theory of probability begins with the provocative statement PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST, meaning that probability does not exist in an objective sense. Rather, probability exists only subjectively within the minds of individuals. De Finetti defined subjective probabilities in terms of the rates at which individuals are willing to bet money on events, even though, in principle, such betting rates could depend on state-dependent marginal utility for money as well as on beliefs. Most later authors, from Savage onward, have attempted to disentangle beliefs from values by introducing hypothetical bets whose payoffs are abstract consequences that are assumed to have state-independent utility. In this paper, I argue that de Finetti was right all along: PROBABILITY, considered as a numerical measure of pure belief uncontaminated by attitudes toward money, does not exist. Rather, what exist are de Finetti's `previsions', or betting rates for money, otherwise known in the literature as `risk neutral probabilities'. But the fact that previsions are not measures of pure belief turns out not to be problematic for statistical inference, decision analysis, or economic modeling. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessment of Task-Centered Interventions with Families in Israel

The study describes and evaluates the effectiveness of task-centered interventions performed with families in two new neighborhoods in Jerusalem, Israel. Thirty-five low-income nondelinquent families experiencing financial, personal and family problems were treated by 11 social work trainees. Each worker performed a single-case time-series design to evaluate 2 to 4 families, using the Clinical Rating Scale and a Goal Attainment Scale. The families were interviewed at termination of treatment. Both practitioners' and families' assessments indicated improvements in the majority of clients. Improvements were associated with young age of spouses and with the application of the techniques of task assignment, focusing and guidance. The validity, generalizability, and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Central banks’ priorities and the left/right partisanship of exchange rates

This study argues that when central banks subordinate all policy goals to achieving price stability greater central bank independence encourages left-wing governments to seek greater exchange rate stability. Such central bank policy priorities make the Left's preferred distributive policies more dependent on the effectiveness of fiscal policy, which under high capital mobility increases with exchange rate stability. In contrast, right-wing governments put greater emphasis on market adjustments and price stability. Hypotheses are tested by estimating the sensitivity of exchange rate variation to partisanship, central bank independence, and the salience of price stability, using a Prais-Winsten estimator and Instrumented Variables, run on pooled cross-section time-series data from 22 OECD countries during 1990-2004.