Official statistics, public policy and public trust

Summary.  The question of public confidence in official statistics has been central to government statistical policy for the last 10 years. This year the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 was passed. The paper suggests key characteristics of the new arrangements that will be needed if public confidence in the official statistics outputs is to be strengthened. It is argued that this will depend on public confidence in the statistical system as a whole rather than just the new Board. The organizational structure of the UK statistical system is described and this is linked to the issue of public confidence. Finally the wider questions of evidence-based policy and the use of statistics and statistical thinking throughout government are discussed.     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

我国统计学科建设史上的一次重大变革

统计学向来被认为是社会科学,是经济学下属的二级学科。对此我国统计学界早有不同认识,但一直未能受到理论界和有关部门的重视。直到二十年前,由中国统计学会和国家统计局统计科学研究所发起,组织的“大统计”的大讨论,才受到学界乃至政界的关注,从而推动和促进了社会经济统计学从经济学中分离出来,与数理统计学一起,共同形成独立的统计学一级学科,这是我国统计学科建设史上的一次重大变革,我国统计学界的一件大事。它对我国统计理论和实践的发展产生了深远影响。 本文对上述情况作了全面评述,并对统计学从经济学中分离出来上升为一级学科的来龙去脉,和统计学科类目框架的形成过程作了详细介绍,它有助于读者了解这一重大事件的全过程。     

Statistics for Quality and Productivity: A New Graduate-Level Statistics Course

The growing popular realization that American product quality and productivity are no longer without challenge for world leadership presents an opportunity for the American statistical community to make stronger contributions to sound industrial practice than it has in the past. Management consultants, such as Deming and Juran, are promoting philosophies that contain strong statistical components and are being heard by top U.S. executives. There are thus growing opportunities for industrial statisticians. Upon reviewing the content of typical graduate-level statistical quality control courses and books in the light of the present situation, we find them to be inadequate and in some cases to suffer from inappropriate emphases. In this article we discuss our perceptions of what is needed in the way of a new graduate-level course in statistics for quality and productivity (SQP). We further offer for discussion a syllabus for such a course (which is a modification of one used at Iowa State in the 1983 spring semester), some comments on how specific topics might be approached, and also a partially annotated list of references for material that we believe belongs in a modern SQP course.     

Introductory Statistics Textbooks and the GAISE Recommendations

The six recommendations made by the Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) committee were first communicated in 2005 and more formally in 2010. In this article, 25 introductory statistics textbooks are examined to assess how well these textbooks have incorporated the three GAISE recommendations most relevant to implementation in textbooks (statistical literacy and thinking; use of real data; stress concepts over procedures). The implementation of another recommendation (using technology) is described but not assessed. In general, most textbooks appear to be adopting the GAISE recommendations reasonably well in both exposition and exercises. The textbooks are particularly adept at using real data, using real data well, and promoting statistical literacy. Textbooks are less adept—but still rated reasonably well, in general—at explaining concepts over procedures and promoting statistical thinking. In contrast, few textbooks have easy-usable glossaries of statistical terms to assist with understanding of statistical language and literacy development. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

政府统计方兴未艾 ——纪念新中国政府统计机构成立60周年

 本文在探讨政府统计的起源与发展过程的基础上,归纳出政府统计的本质就是关于国情国势的政治算术,并且在各国具有许多共性。时至今日,虽然各国的政府统计都取得了很大的成就,但人类需求的不断变化导致政府统计值得进一步探讨和研究的问题还很多,任重道远,方兴未艾。新中国60年的政府统计工作贡献巨大,但面对新的形势还存在不少问题,应进一步深化改革,着力在四个“一”上下功夫。     

Goals for Statistical Uses of Administrative Records: The Next 10 Years

United States statistical agencies use data from administrative record systems to develop program statistics, to establish statistical data bases, and to enhance and evaluate census and survey data. Such uses of administrative records are likely to increase as efforts to control costs and respondent burden of statistical programs continue. This review article proposes six goals for enhanced statistical uses of administrative records in the next 10 years and describes elements of an activist strategy to achieve them. The discussants, representing three agencies that make important statistical uses of administrative records, give their reactions to the proposed goals and strategy.     

根植统计工作实践，促进统计事业发展 ——新中国政府统计科研工作60年回顾

 60年前,国家统计局的正式成立,标志着新中国政府统计机构正式建成运转。回首60年的历程,统计事业的兴衰与祖国命运紧密联系在一起;而统计科研工作作为整个统计事业的重要组成部分,也在曲折与挑战中不断发展和完善。本文从机构人员、科研活动、科研管理、学会建设和学术期刊等五个方面对政府统计科研工作进行了全面的回顾和梳理。今后统计科研工作仍将致力于统计科学的研究与实践,围绕国家统计局中心工作的同时,充分发挥中国统计学会的桥梁、纽带作用,利用杂志等学术平台,不断加强对全国统计科研工作的组织和管理,为我国统计事业的发展发挥重要作用。     

国际官方统计的新发展

联合国统计委员会会议是国际统计界的盛会,集中反映全球官方统计的最新成果和进展。本文对联合国统计委员会第50届会议最主要的若干问题,包括《2030年可持续发展议程》的数据和指标、官方统计基本原则、国家质量保证框架、官方统计使用大数据、国民账户体系、统计用途商业登记册、价格统计、住户调查、国际比较方案等领域的新发展进行了概述,从4个方面提出了国际官方统计的新发展对中国政府统计工作的启示。     

A Study of Student Reaction to the Use of Minitab in an Introductory Statistics Course

Traditionally, the introductory statistics course, Principles of Statistics (STAT 101), at Iowa State University has been taught without reference to a statistical analysis computing package. Although important for the implementation of statistical techniques, a computer component has been perceived by instructors to take time away from the coverage of statistical topics. To gauge students' reactions to the usefulness of a statistical computing package, an experiment was conducted during the fall term of 1986. Volunteers from a STAT 101 class were randomly assigned to either a control group or a computer use group. Both groups filled out questionnaires at the beginning and end of the semester. During the semester, the computer use group had access to and instruction in the use of Minitab. This instruction was tied to homework and laboratory assignments for the course. This article presents results of this experiment. On the basis of the responses to the questionnaires, the value of a statistical computing package as a pedagogical tool is examined. Recommendations for the use of a statistical computing package in a large introductory statistics course are made.     

Discussion

This report is the product of the Task Force on State and Local Government Statistics formed by the ASA Committee on Government Statistics. The Task Force began its work in March 1985 because of a growing concern among ASA members that state and local governments were undertaking many statistical programs and functions of which the ASA had little knowledge and for which it had little role in supporting, and because of the potential and real impacts of federal policy changes and budget reductions on state statistical programs. The report examines the need for state and local government statistical policy, reviews current practice, summarizes elements of a statistical policy, proposes alternative models for organizing the statistical policy function, and makes recommendations for further action.     

国际上关于统计能力的测评及其建设进程

本文介绍了21世纪国家统计促进发展伙伴关系（PARIS21）统计能力建设指标体系、世界银行统计能力指标以及其他相关测评。近10年来,国际组织采取了多种措施,推进发展中国家统计能力建设,取得明显效果。     

Quality Management: Development of a Framework for a Statistical Agency

Over the last 20 years there has been an increasing focus on quality management (QM) as a distinct and necessary element of any competitive business organization. Although quality has always been a concern of national statistical agencies, quality improvements within such organizations have been achieved through a variety of different independent initiatives rather than through concerted effort under the umbrella of a formal “QM program.” This article addresses the application of QM to a national statistical agency. The essential elements of QM are reviewed from the perspective of a statistical agency. Ongoing quality initiatives at Statistics Canada and at other statistical agencies are described. The article concludes by identifying some of the major considerations in developing a QM strategy for Statistics Canada.     

An Examination of Five Statistical Software Packages for Epidemiology

Five statistical software packages for epidemiology and clinical trials are reviewed. The five packages are EPI INFO, EPICURE, EPILOG PLUS, STATA, and TRUE EPI-STAT. Only DOS versions of these packages are compared and rated (Windows versions are discussed but not rated). Although the packages differ in their target audiences, interfaces, capabilities, and approaches, they are examined according to criteria that are of most interest to epidemiologists, biostatisticians, and others involved in epidemiologic and clinical research. A general discussion with recommendations follows the review of the statistical packages.     

中国国民幸福统计研究十年简史

 本文回顾了10年来中国国民幸福统计研究走过的历程,对统计学术、实务界在国民幸福统计研究领域所取得的进展和成果进行了梳理总结,提出对该领域研究未来发展的展望。     

Statisticians in European regulatory agencies

The UK body of statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, PSI, has called on heads of European regulatory agencies responsible for assessing applications for marketing authorizations for new medicines in the EU to employ full time statisticians. In order to assess the present situation a survey has been conducted to identify the number of agencies employing one or more full time statisticians. Out of 29 responding agencies, 12 employed one or more statisticians on a full time basis, whereas 17 did not. Among these 17, 7 involved external experts on a regular basis, 5 involved external statisticians on a case‐by‐case basis, whereas 5 never involved external statistical expertise. Failure to involve statisticians in the assessment of efficacy and safety of medicines does not automatically lead to reports of low quality or invalid assessment of benefit‐risk. However, in depth knowledge of statistical methodology is often necessary to uncover weaknesses and potentially biased efficacy estimates. This might be of importance for the final opinion on granting a marketing authorization, and statistical review should therefore be conducted by those who are professionally expert in the area. A positive trend toward an increased involvement of statistical expertise in the European network of regulatory agencies is observed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

加拿大资源环境统计与核算的主要内容和方法

 加拿大统计局资源环境核算工作在国际统计领域处于领先水平，并为其他国家开展此项工作提供了许多有益的方法和经验。本文主要对加拿大的资源环境核算总体框架、自然资源存量账户、物质和能源流量账户、环境保护支出账户及工作情况等内容进行了较为全面系统的介绍和论述。     

Challenges and Opportunities for Statistics and Statistical Education: Looking Back,Looking Forward

The 175th anniversary of the ASA provides an opportunity to look back into the past and peer into the future. What led our forebears to found the association? What commonalities do we still see? What insights might we glean from their experiences and observations? I will use the anniversary as a chance to reflect on where we are now and where we are headed in terms of statistical education amidst the growth of data science. Statistics is the science of learning from data. By fostering more multivariable thinking, building data-related skills, and developing simulation-based problem solving, we can help to ensure that statisticians are fully engaged in data science and the analysis of the abundance of data now available to us.     

Remote access systems for statistical analysis of microdata

Statistical Agencies manage huge amounts of microdata. The main task of these agencies is to provide a variety of users with general information about for instance the population and the economy. However, in some cases users request additional, more specific information. Many agencies have therefore set up facilities that enable selected users to obtain tailor-made statistical information.A remote access system is an example of such a facility where users can submit queries for statistical information from their own computer. These queries are handled by the statistical agency and the generated, possibly confidentialised, output is returned to the user. This way the agency still keeps control over its own data while the user does not need to make frequent visits to the agency.For some years, the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) and Luxembourg Employment Study (LES) have made use of an advanced remote access system. At Statistics Netherlands and at other statistical institutes recently the need for a similar system has been expressed. In this article, we discuss the characteristics, limitations and desired properties of a remote access system. We illustrate the discussion by the system used at LIS/LES.