Variable selection in additive quantile regression using nonconcave penalty

This paper considers variable selection in additive quantile regression based on group smoothly clipped absolute deviation (gSCAD) penalty. Although shrinkage variable selection in additive models with least-squares loss has been well studied, quantile regression is sufficiently different from mean regression to deserve a separate treatment. It is shown that the gSCAD estimator can correctly identify the significant components and at the same time maintain the usual convergence rates in estimation. Simulation studies are used to illustrate our method.     

Efficient Estimation of an Additive Quantile Regression Model

Abstract. In this paper, two non‐parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel‐based approaches. The second estimator involves sequential fitting by univariate local polynomial quantile regressions for each additive component with the other additive components replaced by the corresponding estimates from the first estimator. The purpose of the extra local averaging is to reduce the variance of the first estimator. We show that the second estimator achieves oracle efficiency in the sense that each estimated additive component has the same variance as in the case when all other additive components were known. Asymptotic properties are derived for both estimators under dependent processes that are strictly stationary and absolutely regular. We also provide a demonstrative empirical application of additive quantile models to ambulance travel times.     

A Quantile Regression Model for Time-Series Data in the Presence of Additive Components

In this article, we propose a kernel-based estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter of a partially additive linear quantile regression model. For dependent processes that are strictly stationary and absolutely regular, we establish a precise convergent rate and show that the estimator is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. To help facilitate inferential procedures, a consistent estimator for the asymptotic variance is also provided. In addition to conducting a simulation experiment to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimator, an application to US inflation is presented. We use the real-data example to motivate how partially additive linear quantile models can offer an alternative modeling option for time-series data.     

Quantile regression estimation of partially linear additive models

In this paper, we consider the estimation of partially linear additive quantile regression models where the conditional quantile function comprises a linear parametric component and a nonparametric additive component. We propose a two-step estimation approach: in the first step, we approximate the conditional quantile function using a series estimation method. In the second step, the nonparametric additive component is recovered using either a local polynomial estimator or a weighted Nadaraya–Watson estimator. Both consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established. Particularly, we show that the first-stage estimator for the finite-dimensional parameters attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under homoskedasticity, and that the second-stage estimators for the nonparametric additive component have an oracle efficiency property. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. An application to a real data set is also illustrated.     

Bayesian spectral analysis models for quantile regression with Dirichlet process mixtures

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of partially linear additive models for quantile regression. We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach to quantile regression models using a spectral representation of the nonparametric regression functions and the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture for error distribution. We also consider Bayesian variable selection procedures for both parametric and nonparametric components in a partially linear additive model structure based on the Bayesian shrinkage priors via a stochastic search algorithm. Based on the proposed Bayesian semiparametric additive quantile regression model referred to as BSAQ, the Bayesian inference is considered for estimation and model selection. For the posterior computation, we design a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler based on a location-scale mixture of exponential and normal distributions for an asymmetric Laplace distribution, which facilitates the commonly used collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the DP mixture models. Additionally, we discuss the asymptotic property of the sempiparametric quantile regression model in terms of consistency of posterior distribution. Simulation studies and real data application examples illustrate the proposed method and compare it with Bayesian quantile regression methods in the literature.     

Quantile Regression Estimator for GARCH Models

Abstract. In this article, we study the quantile regression estimator for GARCH models. We formulate the quantile regression problem by a reparametrization method and verify that the obtained quantile regression estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions. We also present our simulation results and a real data analysis for illustration.     

Local Linear Additive Quantile Regression

Abstract.  We consider non-parametric additive quantile regression estimation by kernel-weighted local linear fitting. The estimator is based on localizing the characterization of quantile regression as the minimizer of the appropriate 'check function'. A backfitting algorithm and a heuristic rule for selecting the smoothing parameter are explored. We also study the estimation of average-derivative quantile regression under the additive model. The techniques are illustrated by a simulated example and a real data set.     

Penalized quantile regression for dynamic panel data

This paper studies penalized quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects, where the penalty involves l₁ shrinkage of the fixed effects. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we present evidence that the penalty term reduces the dynamic panel bias and increases the efficiency of the estimators. The underlying intuition is that there is no need to use instrumental variables for the lagged dependent variable in the dynamic panel data model without fixed effects. This provides an additional use for the shrinkage models, other than model selection and efficiency gains. We propose a Bayesian information criterion based estimator for the parameter that controls the degree of shrinkage. We illustrate the usefulness of the novel econometric technique by estimating a “target leverage” model that includes a speed of capital structure adjustment. Using the proposed penalized quantile regression model the estimates of the adjustment speeds lie between 3% and 44% across the quantiles, showing strong evidence that there is substantial heterogeneity in the speed of adjustment among firms.     

Bayesian Semiparametric Modelling in Quantile Regression

Abstract. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric methodology for quantile regression modelling. In particular, working with parametric quantile regression functions, we develop Dirichlet process mixture models for the error distribution in an additive quantile regression formulation. The proposed non‐parametric prior probability models allow the shape of the error density to adapt to the data and thus provide more reliable predictive inference than models based on parametric error distributions. We consider extensions to quantile regression for data sets that include censored observations. Moreover, we employ dependent Dirichlet processes to develop quantile regression models that allow the error distribution to change non‐parametrically with the covariates. Posterior inference is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We assess and compare the performance of our models using both simulated and real data sets.     

Adaptive penalized quantile regression for high dimensional data

We propose a new adaptive L₁ penalized quantile regression estimator for high-dimensional sparse regression models with heterogeneous error sequences. We show that under weaker conditions compared with alternative procedures, the adaptive L₁ quantile regression selects the true underlying model with probability converging to one, and the unique estimates of nonzero coefficients it provides have the same asymptotic normal distribution as the quantile estimator which uses only the covariates with non-zero impact on the response. Thus, the adaptive L₁ quantile regression enjoys oracle properties. We propose a completely data driven choice of the penalty level _λn${\lambda }_n$, which ensures good performance of the adaptive L₁ quantile regression. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies have been conducted to demonstrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.     

Nonstationary nonlinear quantile regression

This study examines estimation and inference based on quantile regression for parametric nonlinear models with an integrated time series covariate. We first derive the limiting distribution of the nonlinear quantile regression estimator and then consider testing for parameter restrictions, when the regression function is specified as an asymptotically homogeneous function. We also study linear-in-parameter regression models when the regression function is given by integrable regression functions as well as asymptotically homogeneous regression functions. We, furthermore, propose a fully modified estimator to reduce the bias in the original estimator under a certain set of conditions. Finally, simulation studies show that the estimators behave well, especially when the regression error term has a fat-tailed distribution.     

面板数据的可加分位回归模型研究与应用

本文在贝叶斯分析的框架下讨论了面板数据的可加模型分位回归建模方法。首先通过低秩薄板惩罚样条展开和个体效应虚拟变量的引进将非参数模型转换为参数模型,然后在假定随机误差项服从非对称Laplace分布的基础上建立了贝叶斯分层分位回归模型。通过对非对称Laplace分布的分解,论文给出了所有待估参数的条件后验分布,并构造了待估参数的 Gibbs抽样估计算法。计算机模拟仿真结果显示,新提出的方法相比于传统的可加模型均值回归方法在估计稳健性上明显占优。最后以消费支出面板数据为例研究了我国农村居民收入结构对消费支出的影响,发现对于农村居民来说,无论是高、中、低消费群体,工资性收入与经营净收入的增加对其消费支出的正向刺激作用更为明显。进一步,相比于高消费农村居民人群,低消费农村居民人群随着收入的增加消费支出上升速度较为缓慢。     

Quantile regression estimation for distortion measurement error data

We study the quantile estimation methods for the distortion measurement error data when variables are unobserved and distorted with additive errors by some unknown functions of an observable confounding variable. After calibrating the error-prone variables, we propose the quantile regression estimation procedure and composite quantile estimation procedure. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established, and we also investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency compared with the least-squares estimator. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods, and a real dataset is analyzed as an illustration.     

Estimation of a probability density function using interval aggregated data

ABSTRACT

In economics and government statistics, aggregated data instead of individual level data are usually reported for data confidentiality and for simplicity. In this paper we develop a method of flexibly estimating the probability density function of the population using aggregated data obtained as group averages when individual level data are grouped according to quantile limits. The kernel density estimator has been commonly applied to such data without taking into account the data aggregation process and has been shown to perform poorly. Our method models the quantile function as an integral of the exponential of a spline function and deduces the density function from the quantile function. We match the aggregated data to their theoretical counterpart using least squares, and regularize the estimation by using the squared second derivatives of the density function as the penalty function. A computational algorithm is developed to implement the method. Application to simulated data and US household income survey data show that our penalized spline estimator can accurately recover the density function of the underlying population while the common use of kernel density estimation is severely biased. The method is applied to study the dynamic of China's urban income distribution using published interval aggregated data of 1985–2010.     

Bayesian quantile regression for parametric nonlinear mixed effects models

We propose quantile regression (QR) in the Bayesian framework for a class of nonlinear mixed effects models with a known, parametric model form for longitudinal data. Estimation of the regression quantiles is based on a likelihood-based approach using the asymmetric Laplace density. Posterior computations are carried out via Gibbs sampling and the adaptive rejection Metropolis algorithm. To assess the performance of the Bayesian QR estimator, we compare it with the mean regression estimator using real and simulated data. Results show that the Bayesian QR estimator provides a fuller examination of the shape of the conditional distribution of the response variable. Our approach is proposed for parametric nonlinear mixed effects models, and therefore may not be generalized to models without a given model form.     

Estimation and Variable Selection for Semiparametric Additive Partial Linear Models (SS-09-140)

Semiparametric additive partial linear models, containing both linear and nonlinear additive components, are more flexible compared to linear models, and they are more efficient compared to general nonparametric regression models because they reduce the problem known as "curse of dimensionality". In this paper, we propose a new estimation approach for these models, in which we use polynomial splines to approximate the additive nonparametric components and we derive the asymptotic normality for the resulting estimators of the parameters. We also develop a variable selection procedure to identify significant linear components using the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD), and we show that the SCAD-based estimators of non-zero linear components have an oracle property. Simulations are performed to examine the performance of our approach as compared to several other variable selection methods such as the Bayesian Information Criterion and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The proposed approach is also applied to real data from a nutritional epidemiology study, in which we explore the relationship between plasma beta-carotene levels and personal characteristics (e.g., age, gender, body mass index (BMI), etc.) as well as dietary factors (e.g., alcohol consumption, smoking status, intake of cholesterol, etc.).     

Bayesian analysis of dynamic panel data by penalized quantile regression

Existing literature on quantile regression for panel data models with individual effects advocates the application of penalization to reduce the dynamic panel bias and increase the efficiency of the estimators. In this paper, we consider penalized quantile regression for dynamic panel data with random effects from a Bayesian perspective, where the penalty involves an adaptive Lasso shrinkage of the random effects. We also address the role of initial conditions in dynamic panel data models, emphasizing joint modeling of start-up and subsequent responses. For posterior inference, an efficient Gibbs sampler is developed to simulate the parameters from the posterior distributions. Through simulation studies and analysis of a real data set, we assess the performance of the proposed Bayesian method.     

Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.     

Spatially-adaptive Penalties for Spline Fitting

The paper studies spline fitting with a roughness penalty that adapts to spatial heterogeneity in the regression function. The estimates are p th degree piecewise polynomials with p − 1 continuous derivatives. A large and fixed number of knots is used and smoothing is achieved by putting a quadratic penalty on the jumps of the p th derivative at the knots. To be spatially adaptive, the logarithm of the penalty is itself a linear spline but with relatively few knots and with values at the knots chosen to minimize the generalized cross validation (GCV) criterion. This locally-adaptive spline estimator is compared with other spline estimators in the literature such as cubic smoothing splines and knot-selection techniques for least squares regression. Our estimator can be interpreted as an empirical Bayes estimate for a prior allowing spatial heterogeneity. In cases of spatially heterogeneous regression functions, empirical Bayes confidence intervals using this prior achieve better pointwise coverage probabilities than confidence intervals based on a global-penalty parameter. The method is developed first for univariate models and then extended to additive models.     

Local Likelihood Estimation in Generalized Additive Models

ABSTRACT.  Generalized additive models are a popular class of multivariate non-parametric regression models, due in large part to the ease of use of the local scoring estimation algorithm. However, the theoretical properties of the local scoring estimator are poorly understood. In this article, we propose a local likelihood estimator for generalized additive models that is closely related to the local scoring estimator fitted by local polynomial regression. We derive the statistical properties of the estimator and show that it achieves the same asymptotic convergence rate as a one-dimensional local polynomial regression estimator. We also propose a wild bootstrap estimator for calculating point-wise confidence intervals for the additive component functions. The practical behaviour of the proposed estimator is illustrated through a simulation experiment.