The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.     

Demographic data and geographic information systems for decision making: The case of public health

Recent changes in the United States health care system include a broadened definition of health and renewed focus on public health. Increasingly, demographic analyses are incorporated into public health decision-making. Analysts also are using geographic information more routinely, because Geographic Information System (GIS) software is becoming easier to use. The paper describes three cases in which demographers used GIS to analyze the spatial distribution of public health data. The first case, from Santa Clara County, California, focuses on adolescent sexually transmitted diseases in secondary school districts. The second case, also from Santa Clara County, maps preventable hospitalizations of senior citizens. The third examines the distribution of premature births in Tennessee counties. The researchers applied demographic techniques and perspectives in each case, and each case produced information that is being used by officials who plan health education campaigns and services.     

Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making

This paper's objective is to describe the interplay between forecasting and decision making. It shows how a forecast helped shape public policy and, in turn, how public policy influenced a forecast, within the context of the growth management effort underway in the San Diego region. The forecast identified economic challenges and land use issues facing the region and public policy actions were developed to address them. Normative forecasting best describes the relationship between the forecast and these public policy decisions. This active approach to forecasting involves first deciding what future outcome is desirable and, then, designing policies and actions to achieve these outcomes.     

Migration expectancy revisited: Results for the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

Planners in a variety of situations require an improved understanding of migration trends if services and products that adequately meet constituent needs are to be provided. This note focuses on changes in migration expectancy over three decades in the context of the planning function. Using the CPS one-year migration question for the periods 1975–1976, 1980–1981, and 1987–1991, and the work of Wilber (1963) and Long (1973) as historical benchmarks, migration expectancy is found to have fallen since the earlier studies. Longer-distance migration (between counties and between states) has remained relatively constant over the same period so that these types of moves now account for a larger proportion of total residential mobility. The results are discussed in the context of their value to individuals and organizations who seek a better understanding of demographically-driven demand from services and products.This article is based on a paper presented at the Southern Demographic Association annual meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 22 October 1993.     

Ties that bind: A case study of the link between employers, families, and health benefits

Most US residents receive health benefits from their employer. Groups of employees and their families are therefore the basis for health care financing. Health care costs rose dramatically during the 1980s and employers looked for ways to control them. One approach is to control the size of the group provided health benefits by an employer. This paper uses a demographic perspective to explore the determinants of change in an employer's group. It examines the linkages among employer policies, employee turnover, and family dynamics. How much control does an employer have over group size? We identify the relative contributions of employment and demographic processes to changing group size. We use a decomposition technique based on matching individual records between consecutive years. We apply this technique to a case study of the health benefits group consisting of General Motors salaried employees and their families. We find that employers face limits to the control that they can exert over the size of the health benefits group associated with their active workforce. Demographic processes unrelated to employee turnover or transfers to layoff or retirement accounted for a large portion of the population change in the case study.     

Demographic influences on Latinos' political empowerment: Comparative local illustrations

Population Research and Policy Review - How do Latinos gain local political power, given their demographic proportions and characteristics in a community's population? This paper examines the...     

Breastfeeding initiation for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in Victoria: analysis of routinely collected population-based data

Background

Increasing breastfeeding rates is one way of improving the short and long term health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (hereafter referred to as Aboriginal). Despite the benefits of breastfeeding and recommendations for strategies to increase breastfeeding among Aboriginal people, there is a lack of available population data.

Evaluating Evidence of Discrimination in Multiethnic Housing Markets

Landlords and realtors occasionally are identified as causal agents in the creation or maintenance of segregated neighborhoods. The existence of racial/ethnic separation at local scales, however, is no sure proof of illegal discriminatory acts or intentions by housing market agents. Other factors can and do produce racial/ethnic separation within neighborhoods. Applied demographic analysis can play a part in clarifying what constitutes discrimination and in evaluating the statistical data used to screen for unlawful acts of discrimination within local housing markets. We report a study of tenancy and tenancy turnover in a group of apartment buildings located in a densely settled and ethnically diverse neighborhood in Los Angeles. Turnover in these buildings altered the ethnic mix of tenants, increasing the Asian proportion and decreasing the Hispanic proportion. We trace this change to two market processes that differentiate tenants economically and by differing preferences for luxurious housing: (1) an upgrading of housing stock, which repositioned certain rental units at a higher price point; and (2) the market response to newly-available luxury units. These processes promote ethnically homogeneous apartment-building “neighborhoods” within an otherwise unsegregated ethnically diverse area.

Applying demographic analysis in affirmative action disputes: An instructional case

This instructional case study illustrates applications of demographic concepts, data, and techniques in evaluating affirmative action goals for equalizing employment opportunity. Courts of law addressing employment discrimination disputes need an accurate picture of each minority group's proportion in a pool of prospective employees. The demographic and socioeconomic factors conditioning those proportions vary from place to place. In the situation examined here, the court originally used an imperfect population standard to set hiring goals. The case traces the multiple failures to account for those conditioning influences and describes the resulting distortions of legal purpose. In analyzing this failure, students gain experience in clarifying issues in dispute, devising measures to fit legal standards, and delineating qualified labor pools. Specific instructional applications include: using census data to document how local population structure and composition determine each minority group's presence in the workforce; and using administrative data to delineate the relevant labor pools for setting affirmative action goals. Training is broadly suited to assignments where applied demographers must delineate the ethnic and racial composition of a pool of workers eligible to be hired or promoted.     

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed.     

Several recent Supreme Court decisions and their implications for political redistricting in Voting Rights Act context

This paper focuses on four recent United States Supreme Court decisions which have profound implications for political redistricting. These cases are Holder v. Hall, Johnson v. De Grandy, Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson. Each of these cases place limits on the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act when conducting a political redistricting or fashioning a remedy for a Section 2 violation. These cases have resolved a number of important issues in redistricting while creating yet new issues to be resolved. Although demographers are not in the business of practicing law, they must clearly understand the legal requirements and often subtle nuances imposed by the case law. The paper concludes that the combined force of these cases does not yet spell the end of race conscious redistricting and therefore, effectively repeal the Voting Rights Act but does require that more weight be given to traditional redistricting criteria when designing districts that will withstand legal challenges.     

Immigration and the public sector: Income effects for the native population in Sweden

The immigrants' age structure and labour market situation are major determinants for their net contribution to the public sector. During the 50s, 60s and the 70s the immigrants' net contributions gave positive income effects for the native Swedes. Nowadays there are negative income effects due to the deteriorating employment situation among the immigrants. The yearly positive or negative income effects have at most been 1–2% of the gross national product. A change in the immigrants' employment rate by 1 percentage unit will change their yearly net contribution to the public sector by 0.1% of the gross national product. Received: 2 February 1996/Accepted: 28 July 1998     

Older women public sector workers in Ireland: Decisions about retirement timing

Older women workers’ decision making around retirement is increasingly important given the increasing involvement of older women in paid employment. This article explores influences on the retirement decision making of older women workers in Ireland. It is based on a case study of 57 interviews with women in the Irish civil service exploring work-life decision making. It finds that retirement choices vary according to initial socioeconomic resources and/or life-course trajectories and are particularly affected by gendered caring norms, employment policy, job tenure, and place in organizational hierarchies. Those women with interrupted careers and low pay have fewer choices around retirement timing.     

Measuring public sector size in the advanced market economy countries: The problem of deflators

A great deal of scholarly attention has been directed to understanding the causes of the growth of the public sector in the developed market economy countries in recent decades. Unfortunately, this literature has been clouded by uncertainty over measurement of the central variable at issue, the relative size of the public sector. Traditionally, public sector size has been measured as the ratio of government expenditures to GDP, with both figures expressed in current national currencies. Recently, however, this standard approach has been criticized by those who argue that figures for government expenditures and GDP should be separately deflated to account for different rates of inflation in the public sector and the economy as a whole. The purpose of this paper is to explore the empirical relationship between same- and different-deflator indicators of public sector size, focusing on social expenditures in 19 developed market economy countries over the period 1960–1981. The analysis finds that same- and different-deflator indicators are generally strongly correlated and that the choice of deflators, while of some importance, is not of overriding significance in assessing four major explanation of public sector growth in the countries examined.     

农村人力资本投资:破解“三农”难题的根本

三农问题难以解决的症结在于农村教育投入严重不足,制约农村劳动力素质的提升。人力资本理论的发展提高了人们对教育与经济之间复杂关系的认识:教育投资是人力资本的重要来源;教育可以多方面促进经济增长。从根本上破解三农难题,必须增加农村教育投入,提高农村劳动力素质。     

Changes in quality of life perceptions in Saskatoon,Saskatchewan: comparing survey results from 2001 and 2004

There is a growing interest in quality of life (QoL) as an integrated approach to addressing key social, environmental and economic determinants of health. The University of Saskatchewan’s Community-University Institute for Social Research (CUISR) has examined the process and results of a multi-stakeholder approach to the ongoing sustainability of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan as a healthy city with an improving and a more equitably distributed QoL. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis, this research has examined QoL across three locales in Saskatoon—representing Low, Middle and High socio-economic status neighbourhoods. Two large telephone surveys were conducted with residents of the city in 2001 and 2004. This paper presents the major findings from these two surveys according to four overarching research questions posed by the CUISR QoL team. The questions relate to a number of QoL issues including the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, place related measures, aspects influencing excellent or very good QoL in Saskatoon and feelings of a strong sense of place. The paper also assesses the changes in the results of the four questions between 2001 and 2004.

新疆锡伯族人口综合研究

本文根据历年有关统计资料,人口普查资料时新疆锡伯族人口历年变动趋势和现状特点进行综合分析,同全国锡伯族人口、全国人口和少数民族人口状况进行比较分析,探索其发展特征和规律性.     

西双版纳州各民族人口变化分析

本文对1990年第四次人口普查到2000年第五次人口普查西双版纳州各民族人口变化进行了分析,并对它们未来的发展趋势做一些探讨.     

Demographic and Social Research on the Population and Environment Nexus in Australia: Explaining the Gap

Solving the problem of the adverse impact of human numbers on the natural environment is a collective action problem and, if we are to understand it fully, we need good interdisciplinary research which includes work by demographers and sociologists. A number of factors inhibit this work in Australia: narrow disciplinary training; the scarcity of extrinsic rewards; and, as population growth has come to depend on immigration, the risk of peer disapproval. There is also little encouragement for such research from political leaders or the public. Indeed survey data show that the more Australians worry about the state of the environment the more likely they are to want a higher migrant intake.