The Expectation-Threshold model of reproductive decision making

It is proposed that as expectations about parenting become increasingly high, couples have an increasing tendency to decide to have a(or another) child. Similarly, as parenting expectations become increasingly low, couples have an increasing tendency to decide on sterilization. Couples without extremely high or low expectations continue to use contraceptives. Expectations are defined as Subjective Expected Utilities (SEUs) for having or not having a child. Preliminary results support the model and suggest that the threshold for making these decisions is not at neutral, but is conservative so that couples must have fairly high or low expectations before making such binding decisions are parenting or sterilization. The fact that data reveal that this exists supports the Expectancy-Threshold model, but it also requires a change in SEU Theory's maximization rule for some kinds of decisions.The authors wish to thank Carole Baker, former executive Director of the National Alliance for Optional Parenthood, and the board members of that organization for their cooperation, and Dr. Barbara Beach who helped with the data analysis. Funding was provided, in part, by The Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, through a grant, No. 5 P30 HDO 9397, from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development     

The family building life course and contraceptive use: Nang Rong, Thailand

This paper incorporates the insights of the life course perspective in an examination of the determinants of contraceptive use. It views decision-making about contraceptive methods in the context of personal history and the broader social setting. Three stages in the reproductive life course of married women are considered. In the early years, timing decisions dominate. Contraception is used to delay the first birth and control the tempo of fertility. Mid-career, the major concern is whether to have a sterilizing operation. Towards the end of the fecund period, couples must decide when to stop using contraception, given that they have not already opted for sterilization. We examine choice among nonpermanent methods, as well as sterilization, in the context of a theoretical model that explicitly recognizes the permanence of the sterilization decision. Our statistical procedures control for unobserved community influences. The data are from Nang Rong district, Thailand, a relatively poor area near the Cambodian border under going substantial socioeconomic change during the 1980s. Our results clearly show variation in method choice over the reproductive life course, and variation in the effects of specific determinants including age of husband and wife, living arrangements, and village location. They also demonstrate gains in the understanding of any particular stage in the life course that accrue from an integrated examination of all of them.     

Marital relations and fertility control decisions among lebanese couples

This study examines how marital relations affect fertility control decisions among couples who want no further pregnancies. Marital relations studied include the degree of communication between husbands and wives, the extent that couples report marital tension, conflict, and separation, and the amount of intimacy and mutuality achieved in their sexual relations. Findings are based upon the responses of 530 Middle Eastern women who used the facilities of the University Hospital Family Planning Program of the American University of Beirut, Lebanon; 257 women were interviewed in their homes throughout Lebanon, and the remaining 273 were interviewed at the clinic. Three decisions were studied: (1) IUD/pill use; (2) tubal sterilization use; and (3) consideration of and refusal to use tubal sterilization. Women were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire prepared in colloquial Arabic. The decision to choose a reversible versus a permanent method was primarily sociodemographically determined. Among women who considered a permanent method, however, differences in their decisions were mainly attributable to their marital relations rather than to their demographic characteristics. Wife's attitude toward marriage and educational attainment were important and interactive components in the explanation of the association between marital relations and tubal sterilization use.I appreciate the assistance and critical comments offered by Drs. Joseph Veroff and George Simmons of the University of Michigan, and Dr. Joseph Chamie of Population Division, UN, New York. This article is a modified section of my doctoral dissertation which was recently completed at the University of Michigan. The anonymous reviewers' comments on the organization of this paper are greatly appreciated.     

The decisions of Spanish youth: A cross-section study

This paper presents a simultaneous model for the joint decisions of working, studying and leaving the parental household by young people in Spain. Using cross-section data from the 1990–1991 Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares, the model is estimated by a two stage estimation method. Endogeneity of the three decisions proves to be important in order to understand the dynamics of household formation. Our results also confirm a number of plausible intuitions about the effect of individual characteristics and economic variables on these decisions, and provide some new insights into the reasons for young people in Spain remaining in large numbers in the parental home. Most of the results are gender independent. Received: 18 September 1998/Accepted: 24 October 2000     

论收入差距对中国乡城迁移决策的影响

本文利用问卷调查数据 ,分析了城乡收入差距对中国劳动力迁移的影响 ,以及收入差距的来源。结果表明 :(1)收入差距在迁移决策中起着显著作用。 (2 )在消除了样本选择性偏差的影响后 ,女性的城乡收入差距要高于男性。 (3)在男性的收入差距中 ,迁移者和非迁移者在素质上的差异占主导地位 ;而女性的收入差距主要决定于城乡劳动力市场的工资差别。     

Sterilization in the Philippines: the score after half a decade

Since the initial use of sterilization in the Philippines in 1973 as a family planning method, it has become more and more widespread. A bar graph, giving yearly percentages of acceptors for 5 family planning methods, for the years 1974 -- 1977, shows sterilization increasing steadily in popularity, from 3% in 1974, to 12.7% in 1977. Objections to sterilization generally stem from sociocultural and religious considerations as well as misconceptions and fear. People have feared that sterilization is a form of mutilation and castration. Due perhaps to the male fears of castration, female sterilization acceptors account for 90.6% of sterilizations in the Philippines. In 1974, the Philippine government's Commission on Population set guidelines for the training of physicians and the setting up of sterilization centers. The guidelines also stipulated that the procedure would be undertaken on a voluntary basis, would not include abortion, and that clients would be informed of all medical implications, particularly the irreversibility of sterilization. Programs for sterilization in the Philippines have different requirements for acceptors; most stipulate parity of 2 to 4. Difficulties have also arisen from the uneven distribution of sterilization providers throughout the country as well as a lack of physicians trained in both male and female sterilization methods. The need to create effective linkages among the various agencies engaged in sterilization work is noted.     

我国已婚育龄人群避孕水平及避孕方法使用趋势

利用中国20世纪60年代到2004年的全国计划生育调查数据,深入分析我国已婚育龄人群避孕水平及避孕方法的使用趋势。结果表明,我国一直是全球总避孕水平最高的国家,避孕方法以长效措施为主。90年代后,主要避孕方法中宫内节育器现用率逐年上升,女性绝育逐年小幅下降,男性绝育逐年明显下降,避孕套现用率逐年递增,口服避孕药、外用避孕药和其他避孕方法呈逐年下降趋势;且避孕方法的选择存在省市、城乡差异。     

The role of sterilization in controlling Puerto Rican fertility

Abstract This paper provides evidence that the prevalence of female sterilization in Puerto Rica has increased substantially in recent years. It is estimated that about one-third of all Puerto Rican mothers aged 20 to 49 in 1965 were sterilized. This estimate is based on data from an island-wide survey in 1965 (Master Sample Survey of Health and Welfare). Additional data from this and other sources are analysed, leading to the conclusion that sterilization, rather than any other means of fertility control, was largely responsible for the decline in Puerto Rican fertility since 1950.     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997     

Contraceptive sterilization in the U. S.: 1965 and 1970

There was an impressive increase between 1965 and 1970 in the prevalence of contraceptive sterilization, an increase that accelerated in the later years of the period and was shared in by virtually all subgroups considered. Among couples in 1970 for whom sterilization had been an option (recognizing that it is a terminal method), about one of every five had chosen this method of contraception. About half of all sterilizations were vasectomies, though vasectomies have outnumbered tubal ligations in recent years. Differentials in prevalence and in increases during 1965–1970 are reported for a number of life-cycle and social variables. In addition, a profile of the contraceptive sterile is presented for recent sterilizations. Significant proportions are relatively young and of low parity at the time of sterilization. In the context of the continued diffusion of the pill and IUD and increases in legal abortion, the net demographic effect of increasing sterilization is regarded as low, though sterilization is an important component of an effective fertility control regime.     

Birth control techniques in China

This article describes the major birth control techniques in use in China, based on data from a contraceptive prevalence study conducted in September, 1982. 118 million of the 170 million married women of child bearing age use birth control. IUD insertion accounts for 50.2% of birth control methods used, tubal ligation accounts for 25.4%, vas deferens ligation 10.0% oral contraceptives (OCs) 8.2%, and condoms 2.0%. A table of clinical data on 9 China made IUDs reveals that pregnancy rates range from 0 (V Cu-300 model) to 5.83% (mixed ring model). A method of IUD insertion immediately after delivery has been researched and adopted, using a silastic Delta IUD with barium added to reduce the high postpartum expulsion rate. fixing the IUD by sutures during Cesarean section has also been developed. Electronmicroscopic studies of the endometrium of women who have used a stainless steel IUD for more than 20 years showes no tendency towards malignancy, nor negative effects on the endocrine functions of the ovaries. 28 million Chinese women have accepted sterilization as of June, 1982. Local anesthesia and the use of acupuncture have reduced complications due to general anesthesia seen previously. Sterilization by means of chemically induced adhesion of Fallopian tube tissue has also been performed successfully; however, this method makes later anastomosis difficult, and is not suitable for young women with only 1 child. Fallopian tube occlusion by means of a silver clip has been performed in 1,128 cases, with a pregnancy rate of only .85%. 10.62 million men have accepted sterilization. While most of the procedures are val ligations, 300,000 men have been sterilized by direct injection of an adhesive agent throuh the skin of the scrotum. No increase in auto immune or vascular disease has been found. 3 low-dose OCs, used since 1969, have proven to be reliable and freer of side effects than higher-dose compounds. In addition, longterm OCs containing quinestrol have been used since 1969 with a success rate of 98.3% women-year. These pills are taken 1x monthly. R and D priority will be given be given to monthly injectable contraceptives; megestrol and norethindrone are the compounds most preferable. In trials so far, the effective rate has been 99.9% with mild side effects. Gossypol, a male contraceptive, has shown an antifertility effect in 99% of 8000 cases studied; however, hypokalemia and irreversibility of spermatogenesis were reported in some cases. Vacuum suction is the most common method for abortion, but Radix Trichosanthis and lilac daphne terpine, traditional abortifacients, anre acceptable for 1st trimester abortions. Prostaglandins are also used.     

Safeguards proposed for subsidized sterilizations

In December the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW) proposed new regulations to prevent the abuse of sterilization while not making it unnecessarily difficult to obtain for those who sincerely want the operation. Included in the proposal are: 1) continuation of existing court-ordered bans on federal funding for sterilization of persons under 21 and mental incompetents, 2) prohibition of funding for hysterectomies to sterilize women, and 3) expansion of the current 72-hour waiting period to a 30-day period between the dates of consent and the operation. In the past year 2 sterilization trends have become apparent. The 1st is the growing acceptance of sterilization as a preferred form of contraception and the 2nd is the growing concern that sterilization is being forced upon poor and minority women. A recent HEW survey revealed that nearly 1/4 of all married couples now rely on sterilization of 1 partner for contraception; this is double the number of 1965. Despite this popularity, there is widespread evidence of different forms of abuse, and reports of abuse have motivated citizens and organizations to seek tighter control of local, state, and federal monies used for sterilization.     

Should i stay or should i go? The impact of age norms on leaving home

This article studies the association between social norms and the timing of leaving home. Although largely overlooked by most recent studies on leaving home, life-course theory suggests that age norms and age grading influence life-course decisions in general and leaving home in particular. We use Fishbein and Ajzen's model of "reasoned behavior" to integrate this strand of research with the more individualistic view that dominates current thinking. Using data from a Dutch panel survey, we use a Cox regression model with a control for sample selection to estimate the association between perceived age norms and the timing of leaving home. We show that perceived opinions of parents are associated with the actual timing of leaving the parental home but that societal norms and friends' norms concerning the timing of leaving home are not. In addition, the timing of leaving home is also associated with the perceived costs and benefits of leaving home and with the perceived housing market situation.     

Choosing a contraceptive method: why does it matter?

The use of contraceptives varies widely among Asian countries. Based on the most recent survey data available, the rate varies from nearly 8/10 married women aged 15-44 in Taiwan to fewer than 1/10 in Pakistan and Nepal. Women in East Asian countries are most likely to practice contraception, followed by those in Southeast Asia, with lower contraceptive prevalence rates found in South Asia. The rates of some East Asian nations now match those of the US and other developed nations, while in most South Asian nations contraception is spreading slowly. Contraceptive methods in use vary widely by country. The leading method in the greatest number of countries is sterilization, but in most countries several methods are nearly equal in popularity. Only in India is sterilization used by a majority of those people who practice contraception. Japan is the only country in which a majority of contraceptors use condoms, and only in China do 1/2 use IUDs. The choice of a particular contraceptive method is strongly influenced by 1) methods available through family planning programs, or promoted through the use of target systems; 2) religous and cultural factors; 3) concerns about side effects and safety; 4) ease of access to particular methods; 5) the medical profession; and 6) legality--in Japan the pill is illegal. In most countries the type of contraceptive that people prefer has changed since the introduction and promotion of modern methods of contraception. In general, there has been a shift to more effective methods. An increase in female sterilization at the expense of other methods such as the IUD or pill is the most common pattern. In countries where female sterilization is unpopular, use of such modern methods as the pill, IUD, or condom has increased at the expense of traditional methods.     

老龄健康的经济学研究现状、问题与对策

通过文献回顾发现,目前老龄健康研究最大的问题是研究结论的不一致,甚至相互矛盾,其根本原因在于未能正确处理内生性、生态学谬误等问题。建议通过工具变量法解决联立性偏误、随机分配法解决自选择偏误、Heckman二阶段法解决样本选择偏误、面板数据解决变量遗漏、利用滞后期数据解决反向因果关系问题,利用HLM模型解决生态学谬误。     

Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion

This paper investigates the effect of prenatal sex selection on fertility through a stochastic dynamic model with uncertainty in conception as well as in gender, where a woman makes decisions on conception and abortion with or without gender detection tests (i.e. sex-selective or sex-unselective abortion). The paper shows that, when the cost of gender detection test falls, the sex ratio at birth rises due to more selective abortions, but fertility can rise or fall with rising sex ratio. Fertility may rise (fall) if there are more (less) women giving up unselective abortions for selective abortions than women giving up childbirths without test for selective abortions. Similarly the paper shows that the sex ratio can rise or fall, when fertility decreases as the cost of children increases. I test these propositions as well as their implications against micro survey data on the pregnancy history of Korean women.Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models: The bivariate probit selection model

This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.     

Influence of Proximity to Kin on Residential Mobility and Destination Choice: Examining Local Movers in Metropolitan Areas

A growing body of research has examined how family dynamics shape residential mobility, highlighting the social—as opposed to economic—drivers of mobility. However, few studies have examined kin ties as both push and pull factors in mobility processes or revealed how the influence of kin ties on mobility varies across sociodemographic groups. Using data on local residential moves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1980 to 2013, we find that location of noncoresident kin influences the likelihood of moving out of the current neighborhood and the selection of a new destination neighborhood. Analyses of out-mobility reveal that parents and young adult children living near each other as well as low-income adult children living near parents are especially deterred from moving. Discrete-choice models of neighborhood selection indicate that movers are particularly drawn to neighborhoods close to aging parents, white and higher-income households tend to move close to parents and children, and lower-income households tend to move close to extended family. Our results highlight the social and economic trade-offs that households face when making residential mobility decisions, which have important implications for broader patterns of inequality in residential attainment.     

Measuring the impact of locational characteristics on migration: Interpreting cross-sectional analyses

Methods that employ cross-sectional data to analyze the impact of locational characteristics on migration decisions may produce seriously biased results because migrant decisions at any one point in time reflect historical as well as contemporaneous forces. A comparison of results based on a typical cross-sectional analysis and those obtained with longitudinal data shows that these issues are of empirical importance. An alternative interpretation of the results of cross-sectional migration analyses is provided.     

The perplexing links between contraceptive sterilization and (dis)advantage in ten low-fertility countries

This study investigated the association between contraceptive sterilization and socio-economic status (measured by educational attainment) in ten countries, using data from the 2006–10 National Survey of Family Growth and the 2004–10 Generations and Gender Surveys. The findings confirm that a long-standing association between socio-economic status and sterilization persists in the contemporary United States: female sterilization is associated with economic disadvantage, whereas male sterilization is associated with economic advantage. The latter association is found to be unique to the United States, but female sterilization is associated with disadvantage in most of the other countries studied. While basic demographic background factors such as early childbearing and parity can explain the observed associations in most of the countries, a strong gendered association between sterilization and socio-economic status remains in the United States and Belgium even after adjusting for these factors.