Medical Statistics at the Medical School of the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston

PowerPack (Version 2.22) Russell V. Lenth. 3061 Hastings Avenue, Iowa City, Iowa 52245; (319) 337–8549. Bitnet: Blarvlpd @ Uiamvs. $195; 50% educational discount. Reviewed by Ralph G. O'Brien

Nwa Statpak (Version 4.1) Northwest Analytical Inc. 520 N.W. Davis Street, Portland, Oregon 97209; (503) 224–7727. $495; discounts for academic users and multiple-copy users. Reviewed by Barbara L. Mann     

比较优势动态递减概率模型及检验

在比较优势的持续时间是随机变量的条件下,文章运用不确定性数学方法和规范方法,推出了比较优势递减定理,认为比较优势会随着时间增加而递减,具有发散效应,即比较优势不会被锁定.推出的比较优势“无记忆性”定理表明,各国遵循比较优势发展国际贸易是正确的,国际贸易会让各个国家自动寻找到适合本国的比较优势.通过定义比较优势逆转概率,运用实证方法进行研究,研究表明比较优势基本符合比较优势递减定理和“无记忆性”定理内容,认为中国传统劳动密集型优势在逐渐减小,产业结构调整非常成功,逐渐拥有资本密集型优势和技术密集型优势,产业结构越来越合理.     

中国货币工具规则的检验与比较

究竟是利率规则还是货币量规则更适合进入新常态的中国,目前还尚无定论.为此,文章从中国国情出发,分别选取狭义货币供给和银行同业拆借利率构建时变参数泰勒规则和时变参数麦克勒姆规则,通过理论、模型参数、福利损失函数分析等方面对两种不同规则在中国的适用性进行比较.结果证实,中国在2008年以前麦克勒姆规则符合当时的时代需要,能够有效地刺激产出,以其作为货币政策的指导原则是合理可行的;而2008年之后,货币当局逐渐弱化了对货币供应量的管控,市场利率渐渐兴起,中国政府推进的利率市场化改革顺应了时代要求.     

A Geometric Examination of Linear Model Assumptions

From a geometric perspective, linear model theory relies on a single assumption, that (‘corrected’) data vector directions are uniformly distributed in Euclidean space. We use this perspective to explore pictorially the effects of violations of the traditional assumptions (normality, independence and homogeneity of variance) on the Type I error rate. First, for several non‐normal distributions we draw geometric pictures and carry out simulations to show how the effects of non‐normality diminish with increased parent distribution symmetry and continuity, and increased sample size. Second, we explore the effects of dependencies on Type I error rate. Third, we use simulation and geometry to investigate the effect of heterogeneity of variance on Type I error rate. We conclude, in a fresh way, that independence and homogeneity of variance are more important assumptions than normality. The practical implication is that statisticians and authors of statistical computing packages need to pay more attention to the correctness of these assumptions than to normality.     

Medical laboratory diagnostics and statistics

We review the statistical contributions to the development and production of laboratory diagnostic assays. The tasks and facets of the role of a statistician in diagnostic industry are discussed.     

Serials in Service to Children and Youth

Librarians in school and public libraries offer insights into the development and management of their serials collections. They explain how they strive to meet the diverse needs of their young library users.     

Examination of Influential Observations to Improve Discriminant Analysis

Three simple transformations are proposed in the context of ratio and product methods of estimation, based on any probability sampling design, and the usual unbiased estimation under varying probability sampling. These transformations may be effected

after the data are collected in a survey. The objective is to obtain improved estimators of the population total     

等均值向量检验的研究及其在刑事技术中的应用

通常均值向量的检验用具有许多优良性的T2统计量,但T2检验使用的前提条件n1>m,n2>m,这就大大限制了它的应用范围,尤其是在刑事技术中,使得T2检验几乎不能应用。文章主要是将原前提条件拓广为n1 n2-m-1>0,并提供了广阔的应用背景,最后给出了应用实例。     

An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-lndicator Approach

Bivariate time series models are built that describe the empirical relationships between industrial production and components of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). This reveals the indicators' average lead times at all points of the business cycle, the forms of the distributed lags involved, and their ability to explain later movements in economic activity. The relationship between industrial production and the CLI is also examined and used to test the contribution of the CLI toward improving time series model forecasts of the 1980 and 1981 recessions.     

知识经济测度初探

文章对现有 GDP等宏观经济指标在测度知识经济时存在的问题进行分析 ,在前人研究成果的基础上 ,提出一种新的测度知识经济的系统框架 ,并对中国进一步开展这方面的研究提出了建议     

点击西安市高收入群体

20多年的改革开放 ,使我国居民的收入分配格局发生了较大变化 ,这种变化所带来的社会现象之一就是个人收入的差距扩大。因而 ,高收入群体便成为社会关注的对象。文章运用对西安市高收入群体抽样调查的结果 ,对先富群体的收入结构、收入来源、投资及消费等情况做了分组反映与分析。     

Statistical Accuracy of iPad Applications: An Initial Examination

A general explanation of the fiducial confidence interval and its construction for a class of parameters in which the distributions are stochastically increasing or decreasing is provided. Major differences between the fiducial interval and Bayesian and frequentist intervals are summarized. Applications of fiducial inference in evaluating pre-data frequentist intervals and general post-data intervals are discussed.     

An Examination of Five Statistical Software Packages for Epidemiology

Five statistical software packages for epidemiology and clinical trials are reviewed. The five packages are EPI INFO, EPICURE, EPILOG PLUS, STATA, and TRUE EPI-STAT. Only DOS versions of these packages are compared and rated (Windows versions are discussed but not rated). Although the packages differ in their target audiences, interfaces, capabilities, and approaches, they are examined according to criteria that are of most interest to epidemiologists, biostatisticians, and others involved in epidemiologic and clinical research. A general discussion with recommendations follows the review of the statistical packages.     

潜在成长模型在体育运动领域的应用

介绍了潜在成长模型的发展、类型和内容,通过分析、归纳、整理等,比较了潜在成长模型与传统t检验、方差分析、回归分析的差别,探讨了潜在成长模型研究设计的要求,通过台湾棒球职业球员薪酬成长模型说明。利用文献调查法,分析了LGM潜在成长模型在体育运动领域中应用的概况,举例说明体育运动领域应用LGM的情况,证实了未来潜在成长模型会在体育科学领域逐渐受到重视并得到快速发展。