大都市都心地区人口减少与高龄化的考察--以上海市静安区为例

大都市的人口变动有自身的规律,大都市核心部--都心地区的人口变动也有其自己的特点.文章主要以上海市静安区为例,考察了我国改革开放以来大都市都心地区的人口增长和年龄结构变动趋势及其特征,指出人口减少和高龄化彼此影响、互动发展是大都市都心地区人口变动的重要特征;分析了出生-少子化、死亡-长寿化、迁移-郊区化三大变动对大都市都心地区人口减少和高龄化的影响.     

中国人口结构变动与制造业出口结构优化

本文首先从理论上分析了人口结构变动对出口比较优势的影响，然后利用中国2001—2010年28个制造业和人口结构数据，采用交叉项方法实证研究了人口结构少子化和老龄化变动趋势对出口结构优化的影响。结果发现少子化使未来劳动力供给和消费减少、储蓄和投资增加；老龄化使劳动效率下降，居民预防性储蓄增加。人口结构变动使资本素变得相对充裕，劳动素相对稀缺，促使出口结构实现优化升级，由劳动密集型商品出口为主向资本密集型商品转移。     

韩国的人口挑战及其应对措施

人口问题正成为韩国面临的一大挑战之一,韩国的人口趋势所呈现的特征为老龄化和低生育率。本文认为造成韩国人口状况的最根本因素是经济因素,工业化与计划生育是相伴进行的,而亚洲金融危机进一步加剧了韩国人口减少的趋势,由此将会对未来带来许多不利影响。韩国已经认识到问题的严重性,正采取措施以扭转这种状况。     

关中-天水经济区人口空间分异研究

人口空间分异可充分反映区域资源禀赋差异和市场自由竞争结果.采用Moran's Ⅰ指数、空间分异指数、空间插值等方法,研究了关中城市群人口空间分异格局.研究发现关天经济区的中心城市及次核心城市劳动人口聚集,文化程度高且劳动报酬高,但少子化问题非常突出;农村等较不发达地区仍具有温和的子女数量和性别偏好,且农村地区的贫困老龄化特征非常明显.家庭成员在收入和公共服务差异等推拉力作用下,基于迁移成本和预期收益作出迁移决策,最终导致了经济区内能力依存的迁移行为和人口空间分异的加剧.研究认为应密切关注大城市超少子化现象和农村贫困老龄化现象,大城市政府应研究和预案人口快速集聚可能带来的潜在经济风险,向被动承担人口负外部性的农村和中小城镇以合理的转移支付.     

人口老龄化对我国财政稳定性影响的定量解析

人口老龄化将是我国人口结构的一个长期特征。老龄化程度的不断加深会逐步导致我国劳动年龄人口减少与老化,抑制劳动生产率的提高,导致社会产出的减少,减少政府税源。与此同时,人口老龄化程度的不断加深会持续增加我国政府在养老保障和医疗保障方面的支出责任。人口老龄化会对我国政府所拥有的公共资源和支出义务产生重大影响,进而带来财政风险。本文在确定人口老龄化与我国财政风险之间的关系的基础之上,提出调整人口政策、多元化老年社会服务体系等措施,以积极应对老龄化所带来的财政风险。     

人口经济学的与时俱进——《人口经济学》评介

<正>第二次世界大战结束后,伴随着世界人口特别是发展中国家人口的增长及其对经济发展的强烈追求,人口与经济发展的关系成为20世纪后半叶最引人关注的全球性议题,人口经济学也成为一个具有挑战性和富有魅力的研究领域。在我国,计划生育的开展和改革开放后经济的高速增长,使人口经济问题呈现出更突出、更复杂的态势,人口增长、人口红利、劳动力流动、城乡迁移、老龄化、少子化等问题强烈影响着中国社会经济的发展,也提供了更多影响     

贵州省少子老龄化特征、发展趋势及其影响——基于“七普”数据分析

少子老龄化已成为当今中国经济社会发展不可回避的问题，随之也亟须探究人口结构变化特征、发展趋势、经济社会后果，以采取有效措施缓解少子老龄化压力，助力新时代经济社会高质量发展，而之相对于“未富先老”的发展中省份更显得必要和迫切。于此，基于“七普”数据并结合历年全国人口普查数据，对在“未富先老”境况下步入老龄化社会的贵州省少子老龄化特征进行系统描述的基础上，运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对贵州省未来10年幼龄人口与老龄人口发展趋势进行预测，并通过少子老龄化对经济与社会发展的影响分析发现，贵州省少子老龄化现状呈现出了幼龄人口比重下降，老年人口比重上升，老幼人口性别、城乡和地区分布差异明显，老年抚养比持续上升、劳动人口持续减少，人口流出进一步加重老龄化等显著特点；在未来10年，65岁及以上老年人口比重超过16%，老龄化程度有进一步加深的趋势，尽管其间少子化程度将得到一定缓解。而人口少子老龄化特征及其发展趋势，不可避免地在劳动力供给、资源配置、消费结构、产业发展、社会保障等方面对贵州省经济、社会发展产生影响。因此，随着贵州省人口少子老龄化进程的推进，应该不断优化生育政策及相关配套措施、开发低龄老年...     

负增长:是喜?是忧?——关于上海生育率下降及其后果的初步研究

一、引言 人口学家所从事的学科是在人口空前增长时期发展起来的,他们对于如何对付人口减少毫无经验(Peter Pirrie,1985)。而人口减少已经成为一个不容忽视的现实问题。 作为一个现实问题,人口减少的威胁最初出现于第一次世界大战后的西欧,在当时引起了世人广泛的恐慌,也引起了学者们的关注。遗憾的是,这种关注大多来自经济学者,他们中有凯恩斯、汉森、哈罗德、缪尔达尔等(J.Overbeek,1974)。而人口学者对于人口减少及其后果关注甚少,特别是,第二次世界大战后,随着西欧人口增长的回潮,发展中地区的人口“爆炸”,所有对人口的关注似乎都转向了人口增长及其后果。人口减少问题被忽视了。     

关于完善计划生育家庭居家养老服务政策的思考

实行计划生育30多年来,我国人口计生工作取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就,促进了人口自身协调发展,以及人口与经济社会相协调、与资源环境相适应。随着时间的推移,当前第一批响应党和政府的号召,自觉实行计划生育的群众已经开始步入老年,老龄化、少子化、空巢化、离散化使得传统家庭功能呈弱化趋势,他们的养老服务面临诸多困难。     

日本人口少子化与养老金制度改革

少子化是近年来发达国家人口发展的一种新趋势,给社会经济发展带来很大影响,其中对社会保障的影响最大。本文通过对日本少子化发展趋势及养老金制度改革的分析,透视日本人口少子化对养老金体系的冲击及养老金制度改革的未来走向。     

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.     

Long‐Range Population Projections Made Simple

Recent developments in mathematical demography offer a new, simple means of producing long‐range population projections. The well‐known extant such projections, produced by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, rely on elaborate cohort‐component projection methods that require a large number of detailed assumptions and are difficult to replicate. Building upon recent results in the formal demography of nonstable populations, the authors show that analytic methods produce estimates of future population size very similar to those obtained through traditional methods. Simplicity is a virtue in making projections, allowing sensitivity tests of assumptions and avoiding the misleading impression of precision associated with more complicated methods. Cohort‐component methods should still be used for short‐ and medium‐term forecasts and projections. For the long term, however, analytic methods should supplement or even replace traditional projections.     

Population theory—A long view

Any attempt to take a long view of population research, its findings, and applications is bound to raise questions about the state of population theory. Recent research on the history of population thought enables us to include a much more complete account of classical and early modern sources, and of parallel and complementary developments in population biology. This paper considers four major shifts in the conceptual and empirical ambitions of population inquiry over the long term. In general, major conceptual developments in ideas about population reflect major shifts in political and biological theory. The nature of population in European science and society was substantially established before demography emerged as a twentieth-century academic discipline focused chiefly on fertility and mortality. A long view suggests that demography is currently in the course of a shift that constructively re-integrates it with the wider field of scientific and historical population thinking.     

人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究

“以人为本”思想起源甚早,国内外许多领域的专家、学者以及实际工作者对这一思想都有过阐述和研究。从我国人口学的视角出发,结合三十多年以来我国计划生育政策的实践与发展,系统地总结了国内人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究。     

Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science

The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of ‘political demography’ has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of ‘strategic demography’, deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.     

论人口老龄化程度城乡差异的转变

在中国人口老龄化过程中,农村老年人口比例日益高于城市,这是否是中国人口老龄化过程中的特有现象?本文对中国和其他国家人口老龄化过程中城乡人口老龄化的差异进行了比较研究。结果表明,在人口老龄化过程中,许多国家普遍地表现出农村人口老龄化程度高于城市的特点,即城乡倒置明显。进一步研究表明,人口老龄化城乡倒置只是人口老龄化过程中的一个阶段,它不会长期持续。当社会经济发展达到一定水平,大规模的城乡人口迁移基本完成,城市化水平大幅提高,人口因素发生改变时,人口老龄化程度农村高于城市的城乡倒置状况将发生转变,即城市老年人口比例最终将超过农村。     

Demography as a Spatial Social Science

Scholars in many social science disciplines have taken note of the re-emerging interest in issues concerning social processes embedded within a spatial context. While some argue that this awakening is refreshing and new and, in fact, long overdue, I demonstrate that spatially focused demographic theories and research agendas clearly predate contemporary interest in these topics. I assert that recent methodological advancements have merely encouraged and brought refinement to the expanding body of spatially oriented population research—research strongly rooted in demographic tradition and practice. Indeed, I make the claim that, until roughly the mid-20th century, virtually all demography in the United States (and elsewhere, but not specifically examined here) was spatial demography. Then, shortly after mid-century, a paradigm shift occurred, and the scientific study of population quickly came to be dominated by attention to the individual as the agent of demographic action. Traditional spatial demography—macro-demography—gave way to micro-demography, and, I argue, most demographers simply abandoned the data and approach of spatial demography. In closing the paper I include a brief discussion of the recent awakening that has come to spatial demographers from developments in other disciplines, principally geography, regional science, and spatial econometrics.     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

The baby boom in New Zealand and other Western developed countries

The Baby Boom was undoubtedly one of the more emblematic events of the twentieth century. As it was a distinctly demographic phenomenon, it has been dissected by some of the most distinguished of demographers. Yet its greatest influence is not in demography, but in fields like marketing, pop-psychology, and even gerontology: the Baby-Boomers rather than the generation currently at reproductive ages are blamed for structural ageing. This paper questions aspects of Baby-Boom mythology. It asks how it has been measured: a boom suggests numerical volume, yet instead we measure flows. It questions whether the hegemonic model of the boom — the American one that has effectively delineated its parameters in Europe, Australisia and Japan, both among demographers and in the popular media — really does apply to other countries. It also asks whether or not Western Europes limited surges in births really qualify as booms in the strict sense of the term. Finally, it raises questions more in the field of the sociology of knowledge: the way the Baby Boom mythology has spread often in the face of counterfactual evidence. This paper is a revised version of the Australian Population Associations 2006 Borrie Lecture.     

知识经济与人口发展

知识经济将是经济发展的主流 ,它要求社会对科技有巨大的投入 ,而这种投入对经济和社会有更大的回馈 ;知识产业将成为经济结构中的主导产业 ;知识经济以知识价值为核心 ;在知识经济时代世界经济将形成全球化的新格局 ,并对传统产业进行技术改造。知识经济时代对人口数量的制约因素将主要是环境的和空间的适度 ;对提高人口素质的要求更为迫切 ;人口的经济结构将发生重要变化 ,知识工人将成为社会的主导力量 ;人口分布与迁移也将出现集中化分散化的新特点。知识经济对人口学研究提出了更高要求 ,人口学研究手段要实现现代化和信息化 ;人口学要开放化