Demographic issues in the Krosno voivodship from 1975 to 1984

An analysis of population trends in Krosno voivodship, Poland, for the period 1975-1984 is presented. Topics covered include population growth, density, and rural-urban distribution; natural increase; and selected demographic indicators.     

Demographic changes in the seaside voivodships

"The context of this issue is the population changes in the coastal regions of Poland during the transformation of the state. Detailed analysis concerns the following years: 1985, 1990, 1995. The population state in these 5 regions...was quite different in comparison with other regions. The northern part of Poland is influenced by a relatively high [population] dynamics." (EXCERPT)     

Demographic transformation in Poland

The author presents a general review of the demographic transition in Poland from 1750 to the present day. Official data are used to describe the fluctuations in birth and death rates over this period.     

Demographic analysis and society

The author discusses the science of demography and its place in Soviet society, and suggests that its importance has been underestimated in Soviet scientific research establishments. Furthermore, it is found that a simplistic approach to demographic issues remains a problem and that the methodology and analytical techniques needed to study complex demographic issues are still lacking in Russia. The need to improve the quality of demographic studies is stressed, particularly in the areas of regional, economic, theoretical, and political demography.     

Demographic processes in metropolitan areas

The author presents an analysis of the demographic characteristics of the major metropolitan areas of Poland. Characteristics identified include a surplus of females over males and a younger age structure and slower rate of natural increase than for the population as a whole     

Demographic processes in rural areas

Population trends in the rural areas of Poland are analyzed over the period 1975-1993. The data are presented separately on natural increase by province. The author notes that the population in rural areas is declining, while the population in urban areas continues to grow.     

Demographic problems of military reform in the USSR

The author discusses future reforms in the procedures for drafting personnel into the Soviet army. The analysis is based primarily on the experiences of armies in Western countries. The author also takes into consideration peculiarities of the political and economic structures in the USSR, as well as the attitude of the Soviet people toward military service. The demographic situation at the end of the twentieth and the beginning of the twenty-first century is examined, as is the possibility that a decrease in fertility, worsening life expectancy, and increase in international migration could make the military draft process even more complicated. Data for cohorts born in 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987 are used as illustrations. The possibility of developing an alternative service is suggested.     

Demographic and economic aspects of international migration

The author examines demographic and economic aspects of international migration in Poland. "Increase of absorption of employment is caused by emigration of [the] productive population and by emergence of [a] shortage of [available jobs]. Migration of [the] work force is seen as a profitable process: a part of earned money and goods was transferred to workers' families in their countries of origin." (EXCERPT)     

人口结构、产业结构与中国经济潜在增长率

对于中国经济增长潜力的判断直接关系到宏观经济调控目标和调控方式的选择。在索洛模型框架下结合人口结构和产业结构的转型,构建经济增长系统模型,并提供利用经济结构演变信息来预测未来潜在经济增长率的简单方法;根据实际经济数据和对未来结构转型的情形设定,对中国"十三五"期间经济增长率进行模拟预测,结果显示:在经济结构转型背景下,"十三五"期间中国经济增长率将出现明显下降,大约处于6.22%⁷.17%之间。未来中国经济增长将更加依赖于技术创新和人力资本积累为动力的新的增长模式。     

Exploring the economic and social determinants of psychological well-being and perceived social support in England

Summary.  A fundamental focus of Government concern is to enhance well-being. Recently, policy makers in the UK and elsewhere have recognized the importance of the community and society to the well-being of the nation as a whole. We explore the extent to which economic and social factors influence the psychological well-being of individuals and their perceptions of the social support that they receive, using Health Survey for England data. We employ a random-effects ordered probit modelling approach and find that unobserved intrahousehold characteristics help to explain the variation in our dependent variables, particularly for co-resident females. Our results indicate that individuals with acute and chronic physical illness, who are female, unemployed or inactive in the labour market and who live in poor households or areas of multiple deprivation report lower levels of psychological well-being. Reduced perceptions of social support are associated with being male, single or post marriage, from an ethnic minority, having low educational attainment and living in a poor household, but are not statistically related to area deprivation measures. These findings may help to inform the contemporary policy debate surrounding the promotion of individual well-being and community, through the alleviation of social exclusion.     

Explaining Trends in Body Mass Index Using Demographic Counterfactuals

The United States is experiencing a major public health problem relating to increasing levels of excess body fat. This paper is about the relationship in the United States between trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI), including trends in overweight and obesity, and demographic change. We provide estimates of the counterfactual distribution of BMI that would have been observed in 2003–2008 had demographics remained fixed at 1980 values, roughly the beginning of the period of increasing overweight and obesity. We find that changes in demographics are partly responsible for the changes in the population distribution of BMI and are capable of explaining about 8.6% of the increase in the combined rate of overweight and obesity among women and about 7.2% of the increase among men. We also use demographic projections to predict a BMI distribution and corresponding rates of overweight and obesity for 2050.     

经济增长、人口结构与储蓄率的关系研究

本文分析了经济变量、人口结构变量与储蓄率的关系。结果表明,前一期的储蓄率对当期具有决定性影响;储蓄率与经济增长率、计划生育政策和以滞后项代表的储蓄习性存在显著正相关性,而与少儿抚养比之间存在显著负相关性;适时调整人口政策和健全社会保障制度是维持经济快速发展和转变经济增长模式的途径。     

Comment: The Future of Administrative Records in the Census Bureau's Demographic Activities

This article contains comments on “Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models,” by Jacquier, Poison, and Rossi. The Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method proposed is compared empirically with a simulated maximum likelihood (SML) method. The MCMC and SML estimators yield very similar results, both when applied to actual data and in a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Demographic policy in the light of the resolutions of the Twenty-sixth Congress of the Communist Party

The USSR is moving from extensive to intensive type of population reproduction, not because of any governmental measures but as a reaction to objective circumstances. At present there is a reduction in the population cohort of working age. This has an adverse effect on production. And the number of the elderly is increasing; we must involve them more in the production process, in monitoring the service sphere, for instance. The infant mortality rate has declined sharply in the USSR, especially since World War II. The birthrate has also dropped, but it is still higher than in the US, France, or West Germany. Some authorities think that this (the ZPG) is a good idea, but this author thinks it is a bad idea, meaning a drop in society's productive forces. We need an active demographic policy, meaning one which ensures optimal reproduction of the population with an improvement in its health, culture, and living standard. The policy must be differentiated, as conditions vary from one part of the country to another. An example is the 1981 decree on assistance to families with children which provides for payments of 35-50 rubles/month to mothers who must stay home to look after children. The number of children per family to ensure reproduction must be 2.6 on the average. In the Central Asian republics family sizes of 4-5 children are anticipated, but in the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Baltic republics the anticipated size of families is rather low. Measures must be taken to alter this by providing assistance to families with children.     

Activities of the Demographic and Social Statistics Branch of the Statistical Office of the United Nations

Kurtosis is best described not as a measure of peakedness versus flatness, as in most texts, but as a measure of unimodality versus bimodality.     

Ecological inference in the social sciences

Ecological inference is a problem of partial identification, and therefore precise conclusions are rarely possible without the collection of individual level (identifying) data. Without such data, sensitivity analyses provide the only recourse. In this paper we review and critique recent approaches to ecological inference in the social sciences, and describe in detail hierarchical models, which allow both sensitivity analysis and the incorporation of individual level data into an ecological analysis. A crucial element of a sensitivity analysis in such models is prior specification, and we detail how this may be carried out. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the inclusion of a small amount of individual level data from a small number of ecological areas can dramatically improve the properties of such estimates.