西藏人口老龄化现状与发展趋势预测

人口老龄化是世界人口发展面临的共同问题。随着生育率的下降和人均预期寿命的延长,西藏的人口老龄化问题逐渐显露出来．通过对西藏自治区2010年人口普查资料的分析发现．虽然西藏整体尚未进入老龄化社会,但个别民族已经成为典型的老年型人口．局部地区也呈现出老龄化形态。西藏人口老龄化具有老年人口以藏族为主、世居民族老龄化程度高、老龄化程度地区发展不平衡等特点。尽管西藏还处在老龄化的初期,但应对老龄化问题必须具有战略性和超前性．鉴于此．本文对西藏未来40年人口老龄化的发展趋势进行了预测,并结合西藏的实际情况．提出探索应对西藏人口老龄化的途径。     

Ageing-driven pension reforms

This paper stems from the observation that there are two worldwide trends, pension reform and population ageing, and asks whether the two may be related. Exploring the cases of pension reform in different countries, we find that, although they are very different, the cases share a common characteristic: they shift risks away from workers towards those who are retired. Furthermore, population ageing, by increasing the weight of the elderly relative to working generations, raises the price of intergenerational risk sharing. Combining these findings, we argue and show formally that pension reform can be seen as a welfare-best response to population ageing.     

Baby booms,busts, and population ageing in the developed world

The key challenge facing contemporary society is a process of population ageing rooted mainly in past fertility cycles. The goals of the study reported in this paper were (i) to analyse jointly the post-1930s baby boom and the baby bust that followed, (ii) to consider the specific ways this particular combination influenced the process of ageing in different societies, and (iii) to evaluate some possible implications for policy of different historical experiences. Demographic time series for 27 nations in the developed world were used. The main results confirm the importance of the boom and bust fertility cycle of the second half of the twentieth century for population ageing. Some countries will experience ageing processes driven mainly by the growth of elderly populations while others will age largely as a result of declines in working-age populations. These differences underscore the need to tailor policy priorities for specific patterns of ageing.     

人口老龄化的区域经济效应分析——基于新古典经济增长模型

人口老龄化与区域经济发展之间有着必然的内在关联性。因为生产和消费是区域经济发展中的重要环节,而人口老龄化对生产和消费均有影响,也就必然会影响区域经济的发展。因此,本文首先在梳理国内外相关研究的基础上提出人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应——正效应和负效应;然后以新古典经济增长模型为基础,尝试引入人口老龄化因素从而对该模型进行扩展,分析得到的结论是:①进一步验证了人口老龄化对区域经济发展的双重效应的存在;②不同的区域,人口老龄化程度不同,人口再生产所处于的发展阶段不同,人口老龄化对区域经济发展的经济影响程度,即其正效应和负效应之和也就不尽相同,但存在的一个基本规律是,人口老龄化程度越高,其负效应就越大,其对区域经济发展的减速效应也就越明显。     

含迁移要素的区域人口随机预测方法及其应用--以浙江省宁波市为例

以宁波市为例,基于宁波市“六普”与“五普”数据,首先利用年龄别死亡率对同批次队列人口进行年龄移算,即人口留存分析,对比2010年的实际人口数和无迁移模式下的封闭人口数之差,进一步测算两次普查期间分性别、年龄别人口的净迁移量和净迁移率。然后,将迁移率与出生率和死亡率整合,构建多要素随机人口预测模型,预测宁波市未来人口变化趋势,并评估迁移、死亡、出生三要素对人口变动的弹性影响效果。结果表明：人口净迁入对宁波市人口总量变化影响最大,而低死亡率和低出生率是未来50年加剧宁波市人口老龄化的主要原因。未来50年内,劳动力人口净迁入对降低宁波市人口老年负担系数的作用有限。鼓励夫妇生育二孩,优化人才引进与落户机制,尽快建立起应对高龄社会的公共服务体系尤其是长期照护体系,应是宁波市人口政策改革的当务之急。     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

Invisible golden girls? Post-feminist discourses and female ageing bodies in contemporary television fiction

Abstract

The popular television series The Golden Girls (1985–1992) seems to be an exception in the history of the representation of third-age women femininities and bodies in television fiction. This series about four mature women living in the same house in Miami made ageing women visible in television representations. Older women are generally invisible in popular television fiction. Despite this absence, a discourse on ageing and femininities is present in all sorts of popular media texts. We will question post-feminist discourses on ageing bodies and femininities. Are the post-feminist claims regarding ageing bodies present in popular television fiction? Moreover, are these discourses represented by the portrayal of ageing bodies? We will analyse the representations of ageing femininities in television fiction labelled as “post-feminist television fiction.” The series Sex and the City, Desperate Housewives, and Girls will be studied using a textual analysis to look for discourses on ageing female bodies and their particularities in relation to post-feminism. We distinguished a limited set of three sets of discourses (losing femininity, masking of ageing, and the wisdom of ageing) on ageing femininities. Although ageing feminine bodies are absent, a discourse on ageing, “good” ageing, and acceptance of ageing is present in the narration in all three series. The discourse on the masking of ageing, however, is predominant.     

浙江省人口老龄化与全国的比较研究

本文首先对人口老龄化的定义作了一番界定;其次简要描述了浙江省的人口老龄化过程,首次提出了浙江省的人口老龄化进程发端于60年代末的观点;最后与全国的平均水平进行比较,得出浙江省的人口老龄化程度高于全国,发展速度快于全国,比全国早10年左右进入老年型社会,虽然人口老龄化的成因基本相同,但生育率、年龄结构和死亡率所起的作用强度及作用方向不同。     

Sex Differentials in Mortality in the Soviet Union: Regional Differences in Length of Working Life in Comparative Perspective

In this paper we take a different approach from other authors to the study of differences between the mortality of the two sexes in the USSR. First, we use measures of mortality that are not sensitive to the most common types of error in data and that reflect experience in an age range that is important from a policy perspective: the working ages. Secondly, we measure variation in mortality between regions of the USSR. Thirdly, we compare these regional mortality trends with experience in 33 developed countries. The sex differential in mortality in the USSR is an amalgam of very different regional patterns. Its size and rate of change are more extreme in the USSR than in other countries, and are mainly due to the poor and rapidly worsening mortality of men in the Russian Republic. But the widening sex differentials and increasing mortality of men in the older working ages in Soviet regions are similar to trends in many other developed countries.     

中国居民健康不平等的实证分析

本文分析了基尼系数等传统不平等指标的局限性,并引入了研究序数数据的新方法,采用中国家庭动态跟踪微观调查数据,考察了中国居民健康水平与健康不平等。研究发现,东中西部健康水平与健康不平等存在明显差异,健康中位数为“健康”的省份只有8个,中位数为“一般”的省份有17个,健康不平等从东到西呈递增趋势,发达地区同时具有较高的健康水平和较低的健康不平等,欠发达地区则相反。     

Study on Standard of Population Aging

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and"getting old before getting rich"in developing countries indicate that f luctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change?What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change?Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model.The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change.However,sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population.The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not a sustainable system,Gradually raising the retirement age and Long-term stability in replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or countries,but the latter is more urgent.     

Ageing and Living Conditions of the Elderly: Sweden 1980–1998

General social reports on ageing and the elderly in Sweden have been published regularly since the 1970s, within the regular system of social reporting for Sweden, based on large-scale annual social surveys ongoing since three decades (ULF). This paper presents key findings from the recent social report for the elderly (Vogel et al., 2000). The recent report studies cross-sectional and longitudinal change in living conditions (trends over two decades; 1980–1998; register and survey data; n = 112,400), comparing between all three generations (youth, elderly, and mid-age), using a set of 82 social indicators within 12 social domains, and furthermore decomposing change in different generations by additional cleavages (social class, gender, family, region). Age variation and trends in living conditions are interpreted with respect to the changing welfare mix, i.e. the institutional configuration between labour market, welfare state and family. Findings are summarized as a generally widening generation gap, with improved living conditions for the elderly, and decreased conditions for the youngest generation.     

Women,ageing, and Hip Hop: discourses and imageries of ageing femininity

Abstract

This article investigates how discourses of ageing femininity are constructed and negotiated amongst females in Hip Hop. Through the analysis of narratives and imageries constructed within the music and videos of rap veteran Missy “Misdemeanour” Elliott, press responses to Missy’s work and comparative accounts of other prominent female rappers’ performative strategies, this article explores some of the ways that female artists are responding to socially gendered notions of ageing in Hip Hop. I argue that Hip Hop females are in some cases using Hip Hop as a vehicle for subverting age narratives that are commonly associated with ageing femininity. Murray Forman’s concept of “age-representing” is brought into dialogue with representations of ageing Hip Hop females to support this analysis. The writings of Ros Jennings and Abigail Gardner are also drawn on to form a supportive framework by offering comparative accounts of female ageing in other popular music sub-fields. This article aims to contribute to the growing feminist critique of ageing and popular music culture.     

Implications of demographic change for civil society in Germany

Germany is currently beginning to become aware of the consequences of a process of demographic change, initially triggered by extremely low levels of fertility. The population recently started to decline, the demographic dividend is coming to an end and the ageing of society accelerates. Particularly places in peripheral regions are already seriously affected by this process which will increase in pace and spread spatially. Shrinking and ageing populations are associated with a declining purchasing power as well as fewer local tax revenues for public and private services and infrastructure. The population necessary to maintain and economically justify the provision of public services and infrastructure at the current level will in many cases shrink below required thresholds. Commercial services will probably also continue to diminish at such places. Volunteer organizations may provide some of the services which the local administrations can no longer afford to provide and thus strengthen civil society and social cohesion. But can this be an option for communities with a shrinking and ageing population in which qualified younger people are lost through out-migration? The paper presents a new projection of the future demographic capacity for volunteer organizations and concludes that the decay of demographic capacity will affect most regions and sectors of civil society. The loss will be most prominent in remote areas with low population density and in sectors where the need to compensate for declining public services and infrastructure will be highest.     

高度老龄化地区养老服务探索及发展策略研究--以天津市为例

人口老龄化加剧、社会经济发展转型与政府职能转变成为大力推动养老服务发展的客观要求。天津市已成为我国高度老龄化地区之一,在政府主导下初步形成了以社区居家养老和机构养老为主干的养老服务体系。但养老服务建设缺乏详细规划且管理机制尚未健全、养老服务事业的经费投入难以满足现实需求、区域间的养老服务资源非均等性明显、民办养老机构发展困难、专业养老护理人员缺乏等问题逐渐显现。未来时期应完善制度顶层设计和明确政府养老服务财政责任、促进养老服务管理标准化和加强行业监管、构建公办与民办养老机构差异化发展格局、促进养老服务人员的多元化与专业化、探索建立老年护理保险制度,从而推动养老服务健康发展。     

What Happened to the Society of Leisure? Of the Gap Between the “Haves” and “Have Nots” (Canadian Time Use and Well-Being Trends)

Canadian time use trends of the past 30 years are examined, using General Social Survey data collected by Statistics Canada in 1981, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2010. The article analyses changes in the allocation of time to paid work, domestic work, personal needs, and free time, as well as accompanying changes in perceived time pressure and subjective well-being. The article addresses four questions: (1) Do objectively measured time use trends support optimistic forecasts of the 1960s that transition to post-industrial societies is accompanied by substantial gains of free time? (2) Did the time use changes of the past 30 years affect different population and lifecycle groups evenly or asymmetrically? (3) Is there an accord or discord between the objective measures of time use and subjective feelings of time pressure? (4) What are the emotional, and socio-political implications of the observed time use trends?     

Trends in old-age functioning and disability in Japan, 1993-2002

Disability is a burden to individuals and society. Population ageing, combined with the fact that disability is most common among the elderly, has focused attention on trends in old-age disability. This study estimates trends in functioning and disability among Japanese elderly from 1993 to 2002 and contrasts the patterns with those found in the USA. Japan is an especially interesting country because its age structure is relatively old, and it currently has the highest life expectancy in the world despite the fact that just 50 years ago its life expectancy was in the bottom half of all countries. As in the USA, disability rates have fallen. If it were not for the gains in disability between 1993 and 2002, there would have been 1.1 million more disabled elderly in 2002. The reductions were experienced broadly across socio-demographic and economic groups. Increases in education across cohorts are associated with the declines in disability.     

Beggar thy thrifty neighbour

This paper explores the international spillover effects of ageing through capital markets when countries have different pension systems. We use a two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where the two countries only differ in their pension schemes. Two forms of population ageing are considered, namely, an increase in longevity and a fall in fertility. It is shown that, in the long run, a country using a funded pension system experiences negative spillovers from the fact that the other country uses a pay-as-you-go system. The short-run spillovers, however, are opposite to the spillovers in the long run.      

试论卫生资源与老年人口增长之间的协调发展

本文根据国家卫生资源和利用的一些指标 ,结合老年人口生存期的残障状态 ,分析了卫生资源配置和利用与老年人口增长之间的缺口 ,研究了在目前社会发展水平下中国卫生资源向老年人口群体倾斜的可能性和合理性 ,同时探讨了以北京为代表的相对发达地区的卫生资源的合理流向和利用问题 ,从而对城市老年人口的社会支持系统提出了一些对策建议。