The Impact of Long–term Visitor Migration on Projections of Australia's Population

In 1999 and 2000, net long–term visitor migration to Australia exceeded net permanent migration for the first time. A shift in Australia’s migration entry from permanent settlers to long–term visitors has many implications. This paper focuses on the longer–term demographic impacts of this change. In conventional projections of Australia’s population, particular levels of annual net overseas migration are assumed and there is an implicit assumption that these levels represent permanent migration. The question addressed in this paper is: if permanent residents and temporary residents of Australia are treated as two separate populations, does this change the outcomes of population projections? The paper uses a new projection model that divides the Australian population into these two components. Each population is projected separately with provision for movement from the visitor population to the permanent population. Visitors who do not convert to permanent residence are “tagged” with their expected year of departure and are taken out of the population in that year. They are also assumed to have a zero birth rate (because any births they have will leave with them). A conventional population projection based on 1999 levels of annual net overseas migration (88,000) results in an Australian population of around 25 million in 2050. In contrast, a “standard” projection, which is also based on 1999 migration levels, but considers permanent movements (50,000 net annually) and long–term visitor movements (125,000 annual arrivals) separately results in a population of 23 million by 2050. Other projections are carried out in which specified net migration targets are met through varying either the level of net permanent–resident migration, the level of long–term visitor arrivals, or the rate of conversion of long–term visitors to permanent residence. The central conclusion of the study is that dividing the Australian population into two parts, permanent residents and long–term visitors, and projecting them separately into the future makes a considerable difference to the results of population projections.     

Artificial Intelligence and Predicting Illegal Immigration to the USA

The number of Mexican immigrants in the USA tripled between 1990 and 2015. In 2015, about 12 million undocumented immigrants lived in the USA, including 6.6 million undocumented Mexican immigrants. More than half of the undocumented immigrants in the USA enter the USA legally and overstay their visas. Therefore, it is essential to predict whether visa applicants overstay their visas or not. We use a set of pre-immigration variables for more than 6,281 individuals from Mexico to predict their legal status in the USA. By using eight machine learning techniques, we conclude that we can predict correctly the legal status of 80 per cent of Mexicans who migrate to the USA.     

Resurgent Irish immigration to the U.S. in the 1980s and early 1990s: a socio-demographic profile

Irish immigration to the US has been motivated traditionally by a lack of employment opportunities at home. With the passage of the US Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, however, Irish immigrants were no longer explicitly favoured. Family reunification became the primary path of entry, which worked against the Irish who had lost their immediate generational link with US residents.
During the severe Irish recession of 1980–85 a resurgence in Irish outflows resulted in a large undocumented Irish population in the US. Most of this population was later legalized as a result of special legislation that targeted the Irish. There have been concerns in Ireland that the outflow in the 1980s, unlike prior flows, included a high proportion of skilled persons, leading some to characterize the outflow as a "new wave".
This article uses US immigration data to assess how the occupational characteristics of recent Irish immigrants compare with prior immigrant cohorts and also examines how Irish immigrants are incorporated into the US economy.
Recent Irish immigrants to the US spanned the occupational spectrum: accountants, engineers, nurses and other professionals found a booming job market in the most advanced sectors of the US economy, while less skilled immigrants found jobs in the informal economy. While the number of entering Irish professionals increased, flows of the less skilled increased even more dramatically, resulting in an overall decline in the occupational selectivity of Irish immigrants.
The 1980–85 Irish recession has been followed by robust growth for more than a decade. Ireland is now experiencing a net inflow of persons, including many Irish professionals returning from the US. However, Ireland continues to experience a net outflow of the young and less skilled which may once again result in a large undocumented Irish presence in the US.     

Making a living at the interface of legality and illegality: Chinese migrant workers in Israel1

Since the late 1990s, Israel has become a new destination for Chinese migrant workers. In the view of many studies conducted in Israel, the Chinese migrant workers are often a neglected and almost invisible group. The purpose of this paper is to explore the initiation of this migration trend and its social consequences. The major discussion of this study focuses on how the whole process of migration is carried out at the interface between legality and illegality. Research in the sending area suggests that the urgent need for manual labour in Israel provides possibilities to attract both documented and undocumented migrant workers and therefore turns labour transportation into a profitable business. Although no one agrees that undocumented working activities should continue, all of the factors interact and result in a permissive situation allowing this particular combination of the illegal but licit to persist in transnational labour migration. More than anything else, this micro‐level study attempts to find the true story from the individual voices of local people.     

Explaining Undocumented Migration to the U.S.

Using data from the Mexican Migration Project and the Latin American Migration Project, we find that undocumented migration from Mexico reflects U.S. labor demand and access to migrant networks and is little affected by border enforcement, which instead sharply reduces the odds of return movement. Undocumented migration from Central America follows primarily from political violence associated with the U.S. intervention of the 1980s, and return migration has always been unlikely. Mass undocumented migration from Mexico appears to have ended because of demographic changes there, but undocumented migration from Central America can be expected to grow slowly through processes of family reunification.     

Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK Experience

The impact of migration on population growth has become a ubiquitous argument in UK immigration debates, leading to the introduction of immigration restrictions to reduce net migration and prevent the UK population from reaching 70 million. Taking the UK as a case study, this article assesses the rationale for setting a national net migration target as a pivotal point for migration policies and the feasibility of limiting net migration using immigration controls. A framework for analysing the effects of migration policies on net migration is proposed and applied to UK official migration data. The results show that, due to various policy constraints, competing objectives and unintended feedbacks, it is neither optimal nor entirely feasible to prioritize a reduction of net migration as a target for migration policies. Nevertheless, factoring net migration into the migration policy debate provides useful insights on the long‐term implications of migration policies in the context of broader demographic changes.     

Determinants of 1980 to 1990 Net Migration in Texas Counties: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance in International Ecosystems

Abstract Patterns of 1980–1990 migration differ markedly from those of the 1970s but they have received little conceptual or empirical analysis because of limited data and because their diversity has resisted theoretical generalization. An expanded human ecological perspective incorporating international dimensions is hypothesized to explain differentials in migration during the 1980s. Counties with key functions which operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant are hypothesized to control more resources and to have the highest net inmigration. Hypotheses are tested using regression analyses of 1980–1990 net migration for Texas' 254 counties. The results generally confirm that key functional activities were related to migration but less so in nonmetropolitan areas. Implications for rural development and for further research are discussed.     

Comparison of two methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County

This article compares 2 different methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County. The 1st method, the survey-based method, uses a combination of 1980 census data and the results of a survey conducted in Los Angeles County in 1980 and 1981. A sample was selected from babies born in Los Angeles County who had a mother or father of Mexican origin. The survey included questions about the legal status of the baby's parents and certain other relatives. The resulting estimates of undocumented Mexican immigrants are for males aged 18-44 and females aged 18-39. The 2nd method, the residual method, involves comparison of census figures for aliens counted with estimates of legally-resident aliens developed principally with data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). For this study, estimates by age, sex, and period of entry were produced for persons born in Mexico and living in Los Angeles County. The results of this research indicate that it is possible to measure undocumented immigration with different techniques, yet obtain results that are similar. Both techniques presented here are limited in that they represent estimates of undocumented aliens based on the 1980 census. The number of additional undocumented aliens not counted remains a subject of conjecture. The fact that the proportions undocumented shown in the survey (228,700) are quite similar to the residual estimates (317,800) suggests that the number of undocumented aliens not counted in the census may not be an extremely large fraction of the undocumented population. The survey-based estimates have some significant advantages over the residual estimates. The survey provides tabulations of the undocumented population by characteristics other than the limited demographic information provided by the residual technique. On the other hand, the survey-based estimates require that a survey be conducted and, if national or regional estimates are called for, they may require a number of surveys. The residual technique, however, also requires a data source other than the census. However, the INS discontinued the annual registration of aliens after 1981. Thus, estimates of undocumented aliens based on the residual technique will probably not be possible for subnational areas using the 1990 census unless the registration program is reinstituted. Perhaps the best information on the undocumented population in the 1990 census will come from an improved version of the survey-based technique described here applied in selected local areas.     

State and Regional Policy Implications of Elderly Migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

State and regional policy implications of elderly migration

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.     

International Migration Policies: 1950-2000

Policies on international migration since the Second World War reflect the enormous changes in economic, social and political situations around the world.
The implications of changes in the volume and composition of international migration have increasingly become an issue of major concern to governments in all countries.
Following emigration from Europe to countries of the New World as a result of war-damaged economies, reconstruction witnessed high demand for migrant labour, mainly from parts of southern Europe. But by the early 1970s, decline in economic growth, unexpected impacts of the guest-worker scheme, and an increase in refugees from Third World countries led, in due course, to an era of restriction on entry of asylum-seekers and tighter controls over undocumented migration to developed countries.
A "new era" evolved during the 1990s, characterized by growing interdependence of major economic powers. Globalization led not only to a significant demand for highly-skilled and professional workers, but also to decision-making on some aspects of the migration process being transferred from the national to the regional level, and an increase in the influence of multinational corporations.
The globalization process, and the growing influence of international trade regimes, may well represent the first steps towards a new "international migration regime" that incorporates all types of migration.     

Asian Transnational Families in New Zealand: Dynamics and Challenges

Since the 1990s, Asia has emerged as the major contributor of migration flows into New Zealand. Settler migration, tourism, international business and more recently, international education make up the diverse flows of Asian peoples into the country. This paper explores the changing dynamics of Asian transnational families over the last two decades, with a special focus on the experiences of young people within these families. In the early 1990s, bi-local families were commonly known as "astronaut" families, in which one or both parents returned to their countries of origin to work, leaving their children to be educated in New Zealand. Over time the structures of these families have changed, as many young migrants relocated back to their former homeland or re-migrated to a third country, while "astronaut parents" rejoined their spouses either in the origin or destination. More recently, the educational migration of international students from countries in Asia has given rise to another form of transnational family, in which young people enter New Zealand as international students and some subsequently become residents. In this paper, the experiences of these young people are explored within the wider context of family strategies for maximising benefits through spatially extended networks on the one hand, and government initiatives and immigration policy changes that have been taking place in New Zealand since the 1990s on the other.     

Undocumented Migration to the United States and the Wages of Mexican Immigrants

Prior work has documented the remarkable decline in the real wages of Mexican immigrant workers in the U.S. over the past several decades. Although some of this trend might be attributable to the changing characteristics of the migrants themselves, we argue that a more important change was the circumstances under within Mexican immigrants competed for jobs in the U.S. After 1986 a growing share of Mexican immigrants was undocumented, discrimination against them was mandated by federal law, and enforcement efforts rose in intensity. We combined data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) with independent estimates of the percentage undocumented among Mexicans living in the U.S. to estimate a series of regression models to test this hypothesis. Controlling for individual characteristics helps to explain the decline in the wages of immigrants, but does not eliminate the trend, which is only explained fully when the percentage undocumented is added to the model. A key date is 1986, confirmed by a Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition analysis, when undocumented hiring was criminalized and undocumented migration revived after IRCA's legalization programs ended. As the percentage undocumented rose to new heights in the face of employer sanctions, immigrant wages fell below what we would have observed under the former policy regime. Using newly available data from Warren and Warren (2013), we examined how variation in the percentage undocumented by state and year from 1990 through 2009 affected immigrant wages and confirmed a strong negative effect, but the addition of an interaction term to the model indicated that the negative effect was confined largely to undocumented migrants, whose wage penalty rose from 8 to 18 percent as the percentage undocumented rose from its observed minimum to maximum.     

Does Europe need immigrants? Population and work force projections

European countries defined as all Northern and Western Europe including the former East Germany had a population of 498.4 million in 1990. In 1990 Western Europe had 374.4 million people. The European Community (EC) makes u 92% of the total population. Projections forecast a peak of the EC population (excluding the former East Germany) in 2005 at 334.2 million compared with 327 million in 1989, then declining to 332.5 million in 2010, 329.0 million min 2015 and 324.5 million in 2020. In Europe outside the East, the 20-24 year old work force entrance age group will drop from 29,860,000 in 1990 to 26,400,000 in 1005 and 23,480,000 in 2000: decreasing by 6,380,000 or 21.3%. Fertility rose by 22% in Sweden between 1985 and 1990, the rise of negligible in France and Belgium, but 2% in the UK and Switzerland, 4% in the Netherlands, 13% in Norway, 16% in Denmark, and even 6% in Germany and Luxembourg. The Ec labor force was 145 million in 1990 (excluding East Germany); it is projected to peak at 146.9 million in 2000, decline slowly until 2010 and decline faster up to 2025 with the steepest decline occurring in Germany and Italy. Unemployment rates would change from the 1990 estimate of 15.7 million to 15.5 million in 1995. Net migration into the 12 EC countries was on average -4,800 from 1965 to 1969; 357,000 from 1970 to 1974; 164,400 from 1980 to 1984; and 533,000/year from 1985 to 1989 as a result of the rise of asylum applicants and migration of ethnic Germans into Germany. Increased immigration is not needed to satisfy work force shortages for the next 10-20 years in Western Europe or in the EC. Other issues addressed are the economic activity forecast, the hidden labor supply, skill shortages, Eastern Europe, and teenage shortage. High-level manpower movements, immigration of asylum seekers, and illegal immigration will continue, but in the long run the conditions of employment and welfare support have to be improved for the women of Europe.     

The U.S. legalization program: a preliminary final report

The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 made 4 types of aliens eligible to receive legalization benefits: 1) those who resided "continuously" in the US since January 1, 1982; 2) those who had worked in the US perishable-crop agriculture for 90 "man-days" in specified time periods (Special Agricultural Workers [SAWS]); 3) those who were in the US since before January 1, 1972; and 4) those classified as Cuban/Haitian entrants and who had been in the US since January 1, 1982. Estimates of the number of aliens eligible for legalization, not including SAWS, ranges from 1.834 million to 2.56 million. Estimates of undercounts of undocumented aliens are 10% for those who entered before 1975 and 37.5% for those who arrived after 1975. Other refinements in the estimates of undocumented aliens include adjustments for 1) ethnic group and location, 2) the growth of the undocumented population between the census date and the legalization eligibility date under IRCA, and 3) emigration and deportation rates. Out of the 1,581,800 applicants entered into the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) computers (from a total of 2.15 million applicants) as of May 20, 1988, 73.7% were Mexican nationals. Only 5 other countries contributed more than 1%: El Salvador (6.5%), Haiti (2.3%), Guatemala (2.2%), the Philippines (1%), and Colombia (1%). The Mexican percentage was unexpectedly high, perhaps because the legalization had been much more successful in the Southwest than anywhere else in the country. Reasons that Mexicans have a higher legalization participation rate than other nationalities include 1) the distant eligibility date; 2) ethnic differences among non-Mexican nationalities; 3) particularly in the northeast, fears of exposing one's illegal status to INS; 4) the difficulty of information reaching ethnic communities, 5) the reluctance of those already undergoing the naturalization process to risk the legalization process; and 6) the reluctance of employees to admit employment of undocumented aliens. In the end, more than 90% of applicants are expected to be granted temporary resident alien status (and about 70% of agricultural workers), for a total of more than 2 million people. Researchers estimate that 2.5 - 3 million more persons remain in an undocumented status in the US.     

Illegals and expulsion in Africa: the Nigerian experience

The persistence and widespread nature of undocumented migration in Africa is due to 1) the absence of barriers or the arbitrariness of national frontiers, 2) the large stretch of unpoliced borders, 3) ignorance about the existence of borders, and 4) the absence or inadequacy of migration laws and regulations in both the countries of origin and destination. The free movement of persons in Africa has a long tradition. Over a large part of Africa, international migration is regarded as an extension of internal migration. The free movement of persons across frontiers in Africa historically has been facilitated by the cultural affinity of communities divided by international boundaries and the colonial policies of both the French and British. The "migration" of nomads pays little regard to international borders and is largely undocumented, even in national censuses. The frontier workers along the borders of Uganda and Kenya where members of the same extended family live on both sides of the borders and commute daily are statistically regarded as international migrants, without regard for the sociocultural realities of the African situation. Political independence substantially altered the erstwhile free movement of persons across African countries as national governments enacted immigration laws and regulations. The newly independent countries wanted to reserve employment for nationals. The Sahelian drought, internal strife in Chad, the deteriorating economic situation in Ghana, the oil-lead economic boom in Nigeria, and the treaty on the free movement of people in the community accelerate the tempo of undocumented migration in West Africa. Also, migration laws and regulations are not always rigorously enforced. Expulsion and deportation are common policy measures directed at illegal migrants resident in African countries. In Nigeria, the events leading to the expulsion of aliens were gradual, but in all cases, the actual expulsion--or decisions to expel--are usually sudden and dramatic.     

Death at the border

"Debates about United States border control policies have generally ignored the human costs of undocumented migration. We focus attention on these costs by estimating the number, causes and location of migrant deaths at the southwest border of the United States between 1993 and 1997.... Deaths from hyperthermia, hypothermia and dehydration increased sharply from 1993 to 1997 as intensified border enforcement redirected undocumented migration flows from urban crossing points to more remote crossing areas where the migrants are exposed to a greater risk of death."     

Irregular migration: policy responses in Africa and Asia

This article reviews population policies designed to curb or respond to irregular migration flows, with particular emphasis on policies adopted by governments in Africa and Asia. An overview of policies on the world level indicates a number of similarities that transcend regional lines and levels of development. Policy decisions are often influenced by the nature and attributes of the undocumented migrant population and by the current social, economic, and political situation in the receiving country. Governments are frequently more tolerant of migrants who possess needed skills or settle in sparsely populated areas that have manpower shortages. Between the 2 policy extremes of amnesty and deportation, several measures have been employed, including stricter border controls, stringent visa requirements, work permit systems, and efforts to ensure that migrants do not violate the conditions of their admission. In many cases, several policy measures are used simultaneously. Ensuring the observance of appropriate measures for the recruitment of migrant workers, their departure from the home country, and placement in employment in the country of immigration is widely regarded as the best way to prevent illegal movements of workers. Temporary worker programs are sometimes advocated to provide legal channels for potential migrants. At the national level, institutions that deal with irregular migrants tend to be limited in their mandate to a law enforcement role. In Africa, most governments have recently strengthened border and documentary controls and attempted to regulate migration through the labor market. In many cases, mass expulsions have been necessary as a result of laissez-faire policies. In Asia, on the other hand, mass deportation has been less common as a result of more stringent security measures and documentary controls. In both countries, policies have been basically reactive in response to rapidly changing political and economic conditions. Needed is an international convention to serve as a guideline for the humanitarian treatment of undocumented workers.     

Migration Trends and Migration Policy in Europe

This paper summarizes the latest information on both stocks and flows of migrants in Europe, focusing specifically on arrivals from developing countries. It starts out by setting this into its historical context by showing how flows of labour migrants were followed by flows of family members, and later by asylum seekers and refugees. Then it looks more closely at recent migration data, though it finds these to be frequently incomplete and inconsistent. The most comparable cross–national data come from the OECD and Eurostat, which indicate that Germany had the largest flows of migrants in the 1990s followed by the United Kingdom. In addition to these arrivals there are probably between 2 and 3 million undocumented immigrants in Europe – accounting for 10 to 15 per cent of the total population of foreigners. The paper also traces the countries from where immigrants are leaving. Sources vary considerably from one immigration country to another, reflecting a number of factors, of which the most important are former colonial links, previous areas of labour recruitment, and ease of entry from neighbouring countries. In recent years, however, immigrants have been coming from a wider range of countries and particularly from lower–income countries. The paper also examines changes in immigration policy. National policies were fairly liberal during the 1950s and 1960s, before becoming restrictive from the 1970s on. Recently, however, a number of governments have been revising their policies to take better account of employment and demographic needs. The paper also traces the emergence of a cross–national European response to immigration, as European Union (EU) countries have become more concerned about their common external frontier. Thus far European countries have done little to try to control migration through cooperation with sending countries. They could, for example, direct Official Development Assistance to those countries most likely to send immigrants, though few appear to have done so in a deliberate fashion. The paper concludes that in the future immigration to the EU is likely to increase, both as a result of the demand for labour and because of low birth rates in the EU. In the short and medium term many of these requirements are likely to be met by flows from Eastern Europe, particularly following the eastward expansion of the EU. But, the longer–term picture will probably involve greater immigration from developing countries.     

A preliminary profile of unapprehended undocumented aliens in northern New Jersey: a research note

This article sheds light on a number of questions regarding the sociodemographic structure, economic behavior, and the process of economic insertion of unapprehended undocumented aliens in the Northern New Jersey area. The data, taken from questionnaires of the clientele of the Migration Offices of the Catholic Community Services of the Archdiocese of Newark, allows an in-depth look at the goals and motivations of the family unit and the individual while permitting a glimpse of the structural causes and consequences of international migration. Respondents hold basically secondary labor market service and light industry jobs in which they work diligently without being a burden to the community. Their diligence and effort are rewarded by a respectable showing in household income figures. They also have high participation rates both in paying income taxes and filing income tax returns. Although much of the new undocumented immigration is of relatively recent origin, the respondents plan on a long-term stay. The educational and demographic profiles indicate respondents bring with them substantial amounts of human capital which is a necessary 1st step in assessing whether their overall net contribution to the US is positive or negative.