An attempt at evaluation of the economic and social factors [influencing] the Polish population's fertility formation

This analysis of economic determinants of fertility in Poland shows that couples' fertility decisions are negatively influenced by factors affecting family income. Social and demographic factors were found to be unrelated to fertility. 17 socioeconomic measures were grouped as those expressing the level of economic development and determining family income size, those reflecting the level of socioeconomic development and determining the level of children's education, and those characterizing the level of social development and determining the need for health care and social security. The level of actual fertility is modeled as a linear function of variables in a main components factor analysis. Average monthly pay in the national economy (37.6%), the sold industrial production per person (13.8%), and the global agricultural production per person (13.2%) account for 64.6% of the variance. Among the social factors, findings indicate that a higher feeling of security is related to lower fertility, but economic factors have a stronger influence. Voivodeships are grouped as having low levels of economic development (24), as having high educational levels (24), and as having low levels of social security (24). Voivodeships with low levels of economic development and high parity include all the grouped voivodeships with the exception of three. Low-security voivodeships showed mixed patterns of fertility. High-education voivodeships showed a weak correlation with high fertility. Only three voivodeships have low economic and security factors and high education factors, and only one voivodeship has high fertility. Of the three voivodeships with high security and economic factors and low education factors, all have low parity.     

Labour force. Outlook to the year 2020 according to the current Central Statistical Office forecast

"The paper deals with the changes in the number and structure of population of working age in Poland and by voivodeships to the year 2020 as presented by the most current demographic forecast of the Central Statistical Office. The period 1995-2020 is going to be characterised, in its first stage, by a serious increase in the number of population of working age and then, after the year 2010, the size of this group will considerably contract.... The changes flagged will vary geographically."     

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.     

Assessment of health status of population in north and west Poland on the basis of measures related to pollution and degradation of environment. Trends in mortality

"The objective of this study is to make a cross-sectional assessment of the health status of the population inhabiting West and North Poland, using a set of negative measures of health related to the intensity of environmental factors, and to evaluate mortality trends in the same area that express changes in the rate of morbidity leading to death....The measures assumed in the analysis suggest that the population inhabiting 15 voivodeships in West and North Poland is characterised by a poorer health status than in the other area, both urban and rural."     

Reforming electricity rates: Benefits to low-income households

The electricity rate reforms proposed in the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act reflect the quest for an energy policy which encourages conservation, efficiency, and equity. Focusing on equity concerns, this research examines the relative effectiveness of lifeline and time-of-day rates in easing the burden of rising household energy prices among the low-income population. Lifeline rates establish a minimum number of kilowatt hours (kWh) required for basic necessities and a special low rate for these kWh. Time-of-day rates provide lower electricity prices to those households using electricity during off-peak generating hours. The data indicate that lifeline rates would assist low-income households in general, with the greatest benefits going to poor households with small numbers of members and older heads of household. Time-of-day rates would immediately benefit smaller households and those with older household heads. Some lifestyle changes, in the form of appliance use patterns, would be required among the low-income population if they are to benefit from time-of-day rates.This research was supported by a Department of Energy grant from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (DE-FG-01-79 RG 10220) to the National Energy Law and Policy Institute at the University of Tulsa.     

The influence of human fertility on the economic conditions of the rural population in poland

Summary In 1970, Polish women in agricultural households reported larger numbers of children born alive than women in other occupations. When controlling for the influence of age at marriage and duration of marriage, the average number of children born per women among the farming population increased directly with the amount of privately owned agricultural land. Consistently, women whose principal source of livelihood was derived from non-agricultural sources even though they resided in villages, showed lower fertility than those in the agricultural sector, but significantly higher fertility than city women. This study is based on the five per cent sample of ever-married women between 15 and 70 years of age interviewed about their past reproductive histories in Poland during the 1970 Census of Population.The conclusions identify the high level of human fertility in rural populations as the main determinant of economic status among Polish peasants whose sources of support derive primarily from farming. Additional evidence supporting the hypothesis of dependence of the agricultural economy on the force of human reproduction is based on data for Slovakia and the Czech regions.     

Death of choice in the subpopulation of people aged 60 and more in psycho-epidemiological studies in the years 1978-1991

"The structure and dynamics of [suicide] in the subpopulation of elderly people [in Poland] is discussed on the basis of official [statistical] data. Routine epidemiological analyses allow us to state that sex, age and place of residence are decisive factors determining the number of suicides at postproductive [ages]. The suicidal death rate is higher for men in all age groups, both in urban and rural areas."     

Mortality in Poland in the period 1950-1990

"In this paper, crude, specific [mortality] rates as well as nonstandardized and standardized indices of regional mortality differentials are analysed [for Poland] for the period 1950-1990, in order to show mortality differentiation, its increase by age, sex, and place of residence. Taking into account cause specific death rates, the pattern of causes of deaths was found to be similar to that existing in the western countries, although the level of standardized mortality is higher in Poland. Values of calculated indices of regional mortality differentials point to significant differences in mortality by voivodship."     

Shifts in household demographics herald economic changes for Thailand

In Thailand, dramatic changes in households and the health status of the population have led to important implications for the economic sector. These changes affect health, education, housing, employment and transportation. A new book on the economic impact of demographic change by Andrew Mason and Burnham O. Campbell is referred to as a full discussion of the issues. National planning and projections must include household characteristics as well as numerical projections. The analysis of Mason and Campbell is summarized in this article. Important changes are occurring in the size, rate of growth, and age structure of Thailand's population. Life expectancy has risen to 63 years for men and 68 years for women. Fertility has fallen to 2 children/woman. Population growth was 1.9% in 1990. In 1990, there were only 1 in 3 under the age of 15, and these numbers are expected to shrink to 1 in 4 by the year 2000. 60% of the population is of working age; this is expected to increase to 65% by the year 2000. The 60 years old population is expected to be 7.5% of the total in the year 2000. The average household has 1.6 children. 96% of households live with a relative. The expectation is that household size will continue to decrease and the number of households will continue to grow. The number of elderly heads of households is expected to rise to 11% by 2010. Households will become "adultified." The policy implications for education are that the school age population will gradually decreases but the number enrolled will increase. Primary school enrollment will stabilize and then decline after 1995. Secondary school enrollment will increase and level off in 2005. Total enrollment will increase from 10.5 million in 1990 to 11.4 million in 2000 and decline to 10.7 in 2015. These changes will allow for improvements in the quality of education and expand educational attainment. In health care, the demand for maternal and child health services will decline; changes will occur in the kinds of medical care needed.     

Family Contexts and Schooling Disruption among Orphans in Post-Genocide Rwanda

This study examines the relationship between orphan status and schooling disruption in post-genocide Rwanda. The results indicate that while non-orphans have more favorable schooling outcomes in two-parent than in single-parent families, the reverse is true among Rwandan orphans. In single-mother households, paternal orphans, i.e. orphans with only a living mother, have better outcomes than their orphan and non-orphan counterparts. In contrast, paternal orphans have worse outcomes than other children in two-parent households, especially in households headed by males. Maternal orphans are more likely to experience schooling disruptions than non-orphans regardless of family structure. The maternal-orphan disadvantage is nevertheless greater in female-headed than in male-headed households. As expected, non-related orphans are more disadvantaged than orphans related to their household heads. However, non-related orphans have a greater disadvantage in two-parent than in single-parent households. The results also suggest that within households, the provision of childcare to children below schooling age is an impediment to orphan’s schooling. These impediments are, however, greater for double-orphans than paternal or maternal orphans.     

Poverty in the Philippines: the impact of family size

The people of Asia are beginning to realize that lower fertility translates into increased family wealth and educational attainment. This is the message that population and development efforts have been focusing on. In the Philippines, the goal is to lower fertility with a strategy based on the assumption that increased capacity of the economy will support a growing population at a higher standard of living. In the Philippines, over 33% of the households have 7 or more family members, while 20% of urban and 27% of rural households have 4 or more. The risk of poverty associated with increased number of children are 44-50% for 1 child and 60-78% for those with 5. Households spend up to 10% of their total income to raise 1 child, 18% for 2, and 26% for 4 children. Because many families lack the resources to raise children the per child share drops dramatically with each child, a household with 4 children spends 25% less per child than does 1 with 2 children. Occupation also affects income as the highest poverty rates are among heads of household who are: laborers (60%) and agricultural workers (73%). The best solution is an integrated approach with increases in family planning, education, and agricultural reform.     

Divorce in the family life cycle

"We present the results of [a] study conducted in the years 1986-1988 in three big cities in Poland.... The sample population consisted of persons who divorced in the years 1983-1984....[The focus is on] a detailed evaluation of the sources of divorce and a discussion of the determinants, in relation to the family life cycle. The paper constitutes an attempt at an interdisciplinary approach to the phenomenon of divorce; the approach combines demographic and sociological perspectives."     

Mortality by sex,age, and cause of death,in European and highly developed extra-European countries in the years 1960-1984

"A comparative analysis of mortality, in which standardized death rates...were used, was conducted for 24 European and 5...[other] developed countries. The analysis shows that in spite of medical progress in fighting high mortality stemming from primary sources (diseases of [the] circulatory system and malignant neoplasms), its very high level is still registered in many Middle and Eastern European countries (especially in Hungary, in former Czechoslovakia and Poland). A high increase of premature mortality of men aged 45-64 is also observed."     

Population changes and the cost of health care for the elderly in Poland

"The author...has attempted to measure the effects of population changes upon the costs of health care [in Poland] by applying a simulation model. In this model the total cost of health care is a function of the per capita cost of health care by age, sex, and place of residence (urban, rural) and population structure.... The paper includes...the results concerning population 60 years of age and over." Data are from several official health-related surveys carried out in 1989.     

Using census data for household projections: an overview of results from the HOMES Project

"This article provides an overview of the household projection model HOMES [a computer model developed to forecast the number and characteristics of households] and presents new household projections for six countries--China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. The household projections are based on recently released population projections from The World Bank and on rules governing living arrangements quantified with the latest available census or demographic survey for each country. Growth in the number of households to the year 2030 is projected along with changes in household membership and the dependency burden."     

Predicted changes,in the years 1990-2010, in the state and structure of productive age population in Poland and in selected European countries and their consequences for external migrations

Trends in the number and structure of working-age populations in Europe and Poland are projected for the period 1990-2010. Among their predictions, the authors anticipate that "in Western Europe...the working age population will be reduced by...2%. In both Southern and Northern Europe the working age population will grow...by 1.3% and 3.6% [respectively]. On the other hand, in Eastern Europe the population concerned will grow substantially in those years: this growth is estimated [at]...9.1%." A 14.7 percent increase is predicted for Poland.     

Demographic situation in Poland in 1989 on the basis of the report of the Government Population Commission

"The study contains...statements of the...sixteenth report of the Government Population Commission on 'Poland's demographic situation'.... The 1990 Report presents for the first time a thorough analysis of mortality caused by...circulatory and respiratory system diseases, malignant neoplasms, injuries and poisonings, [for] basic administrative units (towns and gminas). Moreover, the 1990 Report presents an analysis of changes in the structures of: the socio-demographic situation of households and families, disability, and the external migration of Poland's population in the years 1978-1988. The Report also contains an analysis of the [sociological] changes in Polish family life over the postwar period...."     

Attitudes toward family size in some East European countries

Summary The paper is a review of published materials on attitudes toward family size derived from nationwide family planning studies conducted in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and the USSR around 1970. Priority is given to the findings on expected family size, though other attitudinal variables such as the ideal number of children and/or the number planned at marriage are also discussed. The paper shows that the majority of women in all the countries surveyed tend to have a limited number of children. Although the trend is especially striking among better-educated and gainfully employed women, it is also spreading fast, particularly among the younger generations, through the whole urban and rural population. The average expected family size is generally close to, and for a sizeable group of women below, replacement level. The trend toward a small family size is only partially a reflection of real desires. Various factors, most of them apparently of an economic nature, prompt many women to have fewer children than they would wish. If the average expected fertility were equal to that considered as ideal or to that planned at marriage there would be no danger that births would fall below replacement level. In contrast to the situation in the countries as a whole, women in the Asian Republics of the USSR not only expect but also tend to regard as ideal a family with larger numbers of children.     

The influence of mumber and ages of children on residential mobility

Married couples without children are more geographically mobile than those with children, at least through age 45. Among husband-wife couples with children, ages of children exercises a consistent mobility differential; when age of family head is controlled for, families with children under 6 years old only are the most mobile both within and between counties, followed by those with children under 6 and 6–17 years old, and followed in turn by families with children 6–17 years old only. The relationship between number of children and the probability of moving within counties has a reverse J-shape for family heads at each age under 45; after age 45 the relationship assumes a more normal J shape. Number of children is inversely related to the probability of migrating (moving between counties) for husband-wife families in which the husband is under 35; after age 35 the relationship is erratic. The effect of ages of children generally holds for each size of family. Female family heads with children are generally more geographically mobile than male family heads (wife present) at the same age and with the same number and ages of children present.