我国少数民族人口数量及分布的新态势——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的解析

根据第七次全国人口普查数据，并结合历次人口普查民族人口资料，研究了我国少数民族人口数量以及人口分布的变化趋势、分布特征及影响因素。在人口总量方面，2010—2020年我国少数民族人口增加了1335.08万人，增长了11.92%,是同期全国大陆人口增幅(5.77%)的2.07倍，这个比值仅低于大量更改民族身份的1982—1990年。主要原因是第六次全国人口普查的少数民族登记人口低于真实值。2020年人口普查采用了身份证登记措施，加上国家开展精准脱贫工程的原因，使得第七次全国人口普查获得了比较准确的少数民族人口数量。另外，当前逐步增长的各民族族际通婚率使得近年来我国少数民族人口出现了较高的增长。在人口分布方面，东部地区少数民族快速增长，2020年已经成为我国少数民族人口数量第二多的地区，全国少数民族人口分布格局发生了显著改变。2010年全国有5个县级行政区划没有少数民族人口分布，2020年达到全部县级行政区划均有少数民族人口分布。2020年55个少数民族中有49个民族县级行政区划数量比2010年有了显著提高，6个民族有所减少。研究构造了人口分布相对均匀度指标，2020年我国少数民族省级人口...     

对黑河地区鄂伦春民族人口变化趋势的认识

<正> 据第四次人口普查统计,全国鄂伦春民族人口总数已达到6,965人,比1982年第三次人口普查时的4,132人增加2,833人,增长68.56%。黑河地区是我国鄂伦春民族人口的主要分布区之一,笔者根据现有的第四次人口普查手工汇总资料,对黑河地区鄂伦春民族人口八年的变化情况进行了粗略的分析,作为深入研究鄂伦春民族人口的序篇。     

我国286个地级及以上城市流动人口分布特征分析

1问题的提出随着我国改革开放的不断深入和经济社会的高速发展,流动人口的数量急剧增加。第五次人口普查的数据显示,2000年我国流动人口数量达到14439万人。另根据最新的2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,我国2005年的流动人口数量达到14735万人,比2000年增加了296万人。在全部流动人口中,县和市内的跨乡镇街道的流动占45.5%,省内跨县市的流动占25.2%,省际间的流动占29.4%(乔晓春,2003)。目前,国内对流动人口分布特征的研究多集中在对流动人口的地区分布上,即对流动人口的区际和省际、或者在一个城市内部分布的分析上,而且多使用的是人口普查和…     

八十年代人口控制基本估计与若干学术焦点问题辨析

截止到1990年人口普查主要数据的公报发表,80年代全国大陆历年人口总数与自然变动指标,国家统计局都已公布。仅从国家统计局公布的80年代全国历年人口数与自然变动指标来分析,是不难得出80年代较70年代末人口增长控制呈反弹态势的结论。 1990年人口普查时的全国大陆总人口(以下特指全国人口)113368万,相对1982年人口普查时的全国总人口100818万,只要稍加推算,客观数值反映出的一个突出问题,就是1982年人口普查之后的历年全国人口数与自然变动指标普遍偏低。尤其是1988年至1990年的三年间,自然变动指标差异则更加明显。准确地推算两次人口普查间的历年全国人口数与自然变动指标,既是科学分析80年代人口控制的基本依据,也是80年代人口增长控制呈反弹态势的数据说明。     

1982-2005年间回族人口分布变动研究

本文根据1982年、1990年和2000年三次人口普查数据以及2005年全国人口抽样调查数据,对1982—2005年这23年间的回族人口分布变动进行了研究。结果显示：我国回族人口分布总体呈现不断集中的趋势;在西北、西南少数民族聚居的地区和经济较为发达的省区市,回族人口增长较快;在东北和中部的一些省份,回族人口增长较慢。     

我国留守老人状况研究

本研究利用2000年我国第五次人口普查抽样数据对我国留守老人的总量、年龄构成、地区构成和家庭类型等进行了分析。结果表明,目前我国留守老人总量为1790万人,留守老人分布密度在市镇乡之间和地区之间存在明显差异,人口流动使生活在隔代家庭的老年人比重大大增加。     

1982-2010年我国回族人口分布变动研究

本文根据2010年、2000年、1990年和1982年四次人口普查的数据,分析了1982-2010年28年间全国回族人口分布的整体趋势。结果显示：我国回族在流动中显示出越来越集中的趋势;回族人数在东南沿海和华东地区流动的趋势较为明显;东北地区回族人数多次呈现负增长。根据分析,笔者认为导致这一系列现象的主要原因在于地区经济辐射效应下,回族人群比较选择的结果。     

中国人口流动格局的十年变迁与思考——基于第五、六次人口普查数据的分析

通过全国第五次和第六次人口普查数据对比分析,发现十年间我国人口流动的区域分布格局变化不大．东部沿海仍然是最主要的人口流入地．中部地区人口大量外迁的趋势依旧．西部地区作为人口流入地的吸引力有所下降;越来越多的人选择城市作为流动目的地．超一半的流动人口来自于镇;流动人口的受教育程度略有提升但务工经商人群文化程度普遍偏低,外出年龄有所推迟：留守儿童与留守老人数量激增。造成上述特征及变化的原因主要有区域经济发展格局、城乡发展差距与要素集聚格局以及流动人口接纳安置能力与政策等方面的因素。今后我国人口流动需要随着区域经济发展格局的变化．以及新型城镇化、主体功能区等新思路的安排进行舍理引导与配置。     

省级区域人口吸引力对主体功能区规划的影响与启示

改革开放促进了区域联系,人口流动也越发频繁.人口之所以从一个地区流动到另外一个地区,是因为流入地对其有吸引力.文章使用全国第六次人口普查数据得到的省际人口流动矩阵,借鉴测度吸引力的RIA指标,测算了我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)人口吸引力.结果显示:以广东、浙江、上海、北京、江苏为代表的东部沿海的优化开发区吸引力最大,以山西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、西藏为代表的中西部偏远的限制开发区吸引力最小.为了引导人口有序流动,促进人口合理分布,利于主体功能区规划的顺利实施,优化开发区要促进产业升级、合理控制人口规模,重点开发区要在承接产业转移的同时提升产业层次;限制开发区要注重生态环境保护和做好精准扶贫.     

近10年来上海市人口变化特征与问题分析

人口变化特征和问题对区域经济社会发展有着重要影响。结合第六次全国人口普查数据和第五次全国人口普查数据,深入分析了上海市10年来人口变化主要特征,并在此基础上探讨了上海市人口数量、结构、分布等方面存在的主要问题,并针对问题提出了一些措施和建议。     

The US Decennial Census: Political Questions,Scientific Answers

The US decennial census was initiated in 1790 to facilitate nation‐building tasks, especially that of reconfiguring political representation as the population grew and settled new territories. To this basic task of power distribution have been added other key governmental functions, such as the use of census data in guiding revenue sharing and in the enforcement of nondiscriminatory policies. Throughout its history the census has been the focus of partisan clashes. Following the identification of the “differential undercount” a measure of how census coverage differs across demographic groups and geographic areas–the partisan battles intensified, and in recent decades have come to focus not just on how the census counts are used but how the census data are collected. It has been argued that census methodology could be designed to predetermine given partisan outcomes, and for the 2000 census this charge shifted from “could be” to “is.” The Census Bureau has taken extraordinary steps to demonstrate that no partisan considerations have affected the design or implementation of the census, and that its decisions are based solely on the best technical judgment available.     

从第五次人口普查看世纪之交的广东人口状况

1990年以来 ,广东人口状况发生了深刻的变化。这些变化有的符合全国普遍规律 ,有的因受广东特殊社会经济环境的影响表现出不同特点。本文利用第五次人口普查最新数据 ,分析广东人口在数量、分布、素质和结构等方面的现状和特点     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census

China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.     

[Population age structure and sex ratio in 1982].]

While China's 1982 population census provides total population size and age and sex distribution data, the data does not include military personnel. A few years after the census, the Population Census Office of the State Council and the Population Division of the State Statistics Bureau announced the numbers for military personnel by five-year age group as well as a total of 4,230,000. This information provides reliable data for more precise analysis of age and sex distribution in China.     

Examination of the generalized age distribution

The formula for the age distribution and other relationships that follow from it for any (non-stable) population presented by Preston and Coale are significant contributions to demography. The formulas summarize the relationships among various demographic measures precisely, and are formally analogous to the relationships that hold for stable populations. The significance of these formulas cannot be overstated; they allow us to understand clearly the relationships among demographic measures in any arbitrary population. However, when it comes to using them for estimating demographic measures when census data are defective, the method of estimation is still affected by defective data. The reason is that the series of age-specific growth rates reflects the observed census age distributions exactly so that any defects in the census data are summarized in the growth rates. This paper begins with the formulation of the discrete version of the "new synthesis" developed by Preston and Coale. With the discrete formulation, the three kinds of errors introduced when the continuous time formulas are applied to real data can be avoided. Then it is pointed out that when two accurate census data are available, the Preston-Coale procedure of "estimating" the age distribution at the second census is equivalent to checking the identity of the age distribution formula. Also "estimating" mortality by the procedure of Preston-Coale is shown to be equivalent to obtaining mortality directly from intercensal survival rates. That the procedure which involves the age-specific growth rates is equivalent to those that involve the intercensal survival rates may have escaped notice because there are no a priori constraints for patterns of age-specific growth rates to follow. The irregularity in growth rates due to defective data are not distinguishable from true irregularity that exists in the population, contrary to the well-known regularity in the pattern of survival rates in human populations.     

中国第六次人口普查长寿人口研究

文章利用第六次人口普查资料,对比第五次人口普查,以65岁以上老年人口为基数,统计分析90岁、100岁长寿人口。文章认为,长寿人口总体规模呈快速增长趋势;两次人口普查长寿人口地区分布基本一致;沿海经济发达地区的长寿人口比例比西北一些省份高;华南沿海地区的长寿老人比例两次普查都比较高,地理区位特点显著;第六次人口普查显示城市与乡村长寿人口趋于一致。对中国100万人口以上的19个民族长寿人口研究结果显示,90岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:回族、壮族、黎族、瑶族、维吾尔族。100岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:黎族、维吾尔族、瑶族、傣族、回族。长寿人口健康状况研究显示,90岁以上长寿老人22%生活不能自理,100岁以上长寿老人29.2%生活不能自理。