Evaluating social investment in disability policy

Disability policy in European countries is displaying a shift towards social investment: increasing human capital and access to the labour market. The reasoning that underlies this transition is that disabled persons would benefit from mainstream employment, but are impeded in traditional policy by deficiencies in labour supply and demand. However, the shift towards more activating policies in many countries is accompanied by a decline in social protection. It is unclear whether social investment may effectively promote the employment chances of disabled persons within this context. The present research examines this question through a quantitative, cross-sectional, multilevel analysis on microdata from 22 EU countries. Our findings suggest greater activation to predict lower employment chances, while reducing passive support shows mixed effects. Conversely, measures for facilitation in daily life predict greater employment chances, as do measures for sheltered work. These findings raise questions over the value of social investment for disabled persons—and underline the need to overcome broader barriers in the labour market and in society.     

Persistent mind: The effects of information provision on policy preferences

In constitutional states, representatives exchange information, discuss the budget direction and agree on a budget. The agreement is assumed to hold for one fiscal year. To test the validity of this constitutional assumption, we implemented an online panel survey with a randomized conjoint design three times over one year in Japan to track the direction of respondents’ preferences within a multidimensional public policy space. The policy space consisted of spending on education, infrastructure, health insurance, pensions, and poverty relief programs, as well as fiscal retrenchment. Providing information on the poverty rate in the first wave directed respondents’ preferences toward support for poverty relief programs by either increasing or reallocating the budget. The effects persisted in the second wave 5 months later across a diverse range of respondent backgrounds and political positions. By the third wave one year later, the effects had diminished. Once placed in a multidimensional space, information exchange might have a more extended scope than unidimensional approaches have shown. This finding, we believe, can broaden our capability to implement policies for poverty reduction.     

Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe

This paper provides the first cross-country study of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe. For these countries, we construct a unique dataset of exogenous changes in public investment and use them with Jordá (2005) local projections method to estimate their dynamic effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates, the unemployment rate and debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show significant multiplicative effects of public investment on GDP, delivered primarily through crowding in of private investment. Our analysis confirms that public investment can be seen as a catalyst of positive spillover effects to other sectors of the economy and thus contribute to productivity growth.     

Public investment and growth: Lessons learned from 60-years experience in Southern Italy

This article analyses the contribution of public investment to economic growth in Southern Italy in the second half of the twentieth century (1951–2011). The Bai–Perron tests suggest that economic growth followed three distinct regimes: accelerated growth in the years 1951–1973 (average growth rate 5.3%); low growth in the period 1974–1995 (average growth rate 1.6%); zero growth on average after 1995. Using cointegration analysis, we find a positive effect of public investment on per unit of labour output of the Mezzogiorno in the whole period, 1951–2011. However, the estimates of the model show statistically significant parameters of public investment in the first regime, but not in the second regime, when economic growth is sustained by business investment and technical change. The last phase of growth sees the negative influence of the social and institutional environment on the functioning of the economy. The different impact of public investment on growth over time is ascribed to changes in the quality of institutions.     

Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts

The objective of this paper is to compare and discuss the role of farm-household surveys and farm-household models in assessing the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms, focusing in particular on the effects of 2003 decoupling on farm investment behaviour. The paper compares two specific approaches: (i) in-depth face-to-face interviews with farm-householders and (ii) mathematical programming models of individual farm-households. The effects of decoupling estimated by these two approaches coincide in a majority of cases, while the differences suggest relevant complementarities. Altogether the paper suggests a wider scope for using mixed methodologies in assessing CAP policy impacts.     

The real effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from micro data

This paper investigates the real effects of macroprudential policy (MaPP) using individual data from 122 countries. The empirical analysis shows that MaPP increases savings and decreases borrowing. These effects are then disaggregated by policy tool, interest rate and country income level. The effects of MaPP on individual behavior depend to a large extent on the policy tool and the country income level and to a lesser extent on the interest rate. These results stand up to a variety of endogeneity tests that include propensity score matching and an instrumental variable approach.     

Public opinion and foreign policy: The effects of celebrity endorsements

Celebrities often use their popularity to advance international causes, but do they have an effect on public opinion regarding foreign policy? This study uses an experimental method to test whether a statement by Bono of the rock band U2 regarding a fictional foreign policy crisis influences public opinion more than a traditional political elite. Experimental participants were less likely to support the specific position advocated and less likely to be interested in following the crisis in the news when the statement came from Bono, though the results are dependent on party identification and how the scenario was framed.     

Diffusion and policy transfer in armed UAV proliferation: the cases of Italy and Germany

In a 2015 policy change, the U.S. State Department released guidelines governing the sale of armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to other countries, and several export agreements were signed shortly later. While considerable scholarly effort has been devoted to the impact or consequences of UAV proliferation, few studies have analyzed the actual diffusion process. This article applies the insights from both diffusion theory and policy transfer to examine the various diffusion mechanisms while using the experiences from Italy and Germany to illustrate distinct cases policy convergence and divergence, respectively. While the competition mechanism is typically constrained to policy adopting jurisdictions, evidence on armed UAV diffusion suggests policy transfer decisions can also hinge on competition among exporting jurisdictions. Consequently, we seek to point attention to the interaction between diffusion mechanisms (such as competition) and various domestic conditions, demonstrating that diffusion is neither apolitical nor necessarily neutral in character.     

Malaysia's outward FDI: The effects of market size and government policy

This paper extends the empirical literature of Malaysia's outward FDI (OFDI) by considering the impact of foreign market size and home international reserves using multivariate cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The empirical results reveal that there is a positive long-run relationship between Malaysia's OFDI and its key determinants, viz. foreign market size, real effective exchange rate, international reserves and trade openness. The main findings suggest that apart from the market-seeking incentive and the adoption of outward-oriented policies, the Malaysian government could also encourage OFDI by implementing liberal policy on capital outflows. On the basis of these findings, we draw some policy implications for the country's economic development and the internationalization of Malaysian firms in the era of globalization.     

Stimulating effects of intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies in China

Based on the pilot projects of intelligent manufacturing of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China and the annual data reported by listed companies, this paper studies the effect of China's intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies by using the panel data of relevant enterprises from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mechanism of impact. Our empirical tests, using the difference-in-difference method, shows that intelligent policy can significantly improve the economic performance of manufacturing enterprises by guiding enterprises to optimize their intelligent management, strengthening investment in intelligent equipment and promoting collaborative manufacturing. Further empirical tests show that the impact of intelligent policy on economic performance is different in time. In the later selected pilot enterprises, the impact of intelligent policy on their economic performance is more significant; there is regional heterogeneity in the effects of intelligent policy: in regions with low intelligence, the positive impact of intelligent policy on the economic performance of manufacturing industry is more significant. Based on these conclusions, relevant intelligent policy suggestions are put forward.     

The quasi-market of employment services in Italy

This paper aims to study pros and cons of the first experiment of quasi-market in the provision of employment services in Italy: the Lombardy DUL (Dote Unica Lavoro). The program, which has inspired the 2015 national reform within the Jobs Act and lines towards the recent experience of several Anglo-Saxon countries, has revitalized the sector by providing important job opportunities to jobless workers. We find the typical problems of quasi-markets (lion’s share of private organizations; cherry picking; gaming and asymmetric information). However, different expedients were devised in the program to minimize these shortcomings. The empirical analysis suggest that such phenomena are at a physiological level. Analysis of the determinants of completing successfully the program provides non-trivial results as to, among others, the role of organizations of different ownership type and of the type of services provided. On these we base our policy advice.     

The economic effects of common agricultural policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem

The decoupling of CAP payments leads production decisions and resources allocation to be more dependent on market prices and competitive advantages. The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of CAP trends on the montado/dehesa traditional ecosystem of Mediterranean regions in terms of farm income, land, labour and capital. A positive mathematical supply model disaggregated by the montado agro-forestry production systems of the Alentejo region in southern Portugal is developed. The results show that decoupling payments of CAP have negative economic effects on agricultural activities and resource use. Agricultural income increases with single farm payments but the foreseen increases in prices do not compensate the loss of the Agenda 2000 area payments in terms of competitiveness. These results reinforce the need to promote alternative agricultural and non-agricultural activities and policies in Mediterranean rural European areas and regions.     

Assessing the effects of neighborhood councils on urban policy and development: The example of Tacoma,Washington

Neighborhood councils form an important and sometimes problematic layer in the governance system of many cities across the USA. The literature on these institutions has focused mainly on their hypothesized role in facilitating citizen participation in neighborhood and city planning. Less work has explored the experiences of neighborhood councils as placed-based institutions theoretically embedded within, and therefore ostensibly reflective of, the overall social and political geography of the city. In particular, little research documents the actual local development priorities, fund-raising capacities, project achievements and scalar tensions associated with neighborhood councils operating in different neighborhoods of the same city. Using a perspective based on extant literatures in urban politics and public administration, this paper offers an analysis of the neighborhood council experience in Tacoma, Washington, USA. While these councils are still “segmented” from the core of urban politics, the paper argues, certain institutional reforms could unlock their long term potential as more “transformative” spaces of local governance.     

The decomposition of social policy in Sweden

The traditionally strong dominance of the state in social security in Sweden has been replaced by a more mixed structure. Individuals are increasingly covered by a mix of private welfare, employment-based corporate welfare and state programmes. There are several reasons behind this development: shifts in the economic and political conditions, strong tax incentives for the individual to buy private insurance, increasing problems for the public system in covering the loss of income for middle and high income earners, repeated media reports that the public welfare system will go bankrupt in the near future and increasing reports on free-riding and cheating in the area of public insurance. The advantage of the more mixed system may be its similarities to social insurance in some of the European Community Member States. However, from a social policy point of view there are also some dangers. There will be increasing tendencies towards inequality. In particular, the difference in social security conditions between the skilfully employed and marginal groups will be even more marked. The unemployed, the young and people with physical or mental handicaps will be left outside the private and corporate structures. There is also a marked risk that some individuals be reach a level of coverage well above the loss of income, and this will be a disincentive to work. Private and corporate welfare systems are also largely invisible in the sense that individuals may not even know under what conditions they are covered. Another problem is that public attitudes towards the public welfare system will increasingly become more negative and different in various parts of the population. The effect of this may be a vicious circle: public social policy becomes increasingly inefficient and unpopular among the working population and remains only as a marginal system for small marginal groups.     

Farm level effects of policy reforms in Germany: First empirical evidence

The farm level effects of policy reforms in agriculture have been discussed in the literature for a long time. However, empirical studies based on field data are not yet available. In this paper, the effects of the EU agricultural reforms in the last two decades and the introduction of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act on agricultural enterprises are investigated. For this, panel data of arable farms in the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia for the period from 1984/85 to 2010/11 is analyzed by means of a fixed effects model. The results suggest that the farm income level, transmission effects on land rental markets and the farm income risk were significantly affected by the respective reforms.     

Information technology and transformations in social security policy and administration: A review

In this paper we analyse the interactive relationship between technology, administration and policy in social security. Focusing on new and emerging information and computing technologies, we show how they have been shaped and adopted by social security institutions in different countries, and explore their differential impact on recipients and staff, on organizational structures, and on policy and practice. We conclude that similar technologies have been adopted in a variety of ways to address different economic, social, political and organizational objectives and that, although these differences are becoming more blurred, different patterns have been associated with different welfare state regimes.     

Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.