我国货币政策作用机制的阶段性与货币—产出之间影响关系检验

一、引言实际产出与货币变量之间的关系不仅涉及到古典两分法是否成立 ,而且涉及到货币政策是否有效。早期研究发现 ,在产出和货币的单方程中 ,货币对于产出具有显著Granger影响 (Granger ,196 9) ,这同Friedman等人 (196 3)“实际产出和货币供给当中的扰动成分正相关”的结论相符。但是 ,Sims(1980 )对于“货币冲击能够产生实际效果”的观点提出了质疑 ,他通过使用结构变量之间的因果关系检验 ,得到的主要结论是 :如果在实际产出和货币的关系方程当中引人利率变量 ,那么货币供给对于实际产出的作用程度将出现显著降低 ,因此动态的利率变…     

我国货币供应量与物价、产出之间关系的检验

货币供应量是否仍然适宜作为货币政策中介目标,要看其是否可控,也要看其与货币政策最终目标之间的关系如何.本文采用1994-2004年的季度数据,分别对货币供应量与物价和产出之间的关系进行检验分析.检验结果表明,我国货币供应量的可控性在增强,货币供给对产出和物价的影响有一两年时滞,近期内仍适合作为中介目标,但政策操作需要有前瞻性.     

货币错配影响投资及产出的研究综述

文章从理论和实证两个角度对货币错配影响投资及产出的研究文献进行了梳理.货币错配影响经济主体投资及产出的机制主要表现为资产负债表效应、风险效应和竞争效应三个方面,实证研究结论支持了货币错配对投资及产出的不利影响.     

中国货币政策中介目标与股市关系的实证研究

货币供给量和利率作为货币政策的中介目标,两者的变动反应了货币政策的松紧,最终会影响到实体经济。股市的波动从某种程度上能反映一国实体经济的周期。文章尝试运用经济计量学的有关方法分析了我国短期内货币供给和利率的变动与股市波动的关系。     

关于股票市场影响货币供给的原因及实证研究

本文从货币供给模型入手,首先理论分析我国股票市场如何通过通货比率、超额准备金率、法定准备金率、存款结构比和基础货币这5条途径影响货币供给,并进行了相应的实证检验.最后得出结论,股票市场的存在使得货币供给的内生性增强,央行控制货币供给的能力减弱,因此我国的货币政策不宜以货币供给量为中介目标.     

货币多元化对货币供给的影响

本文仅就货币形式多元化对货币供给的影响进行分析.货币形式多元化对货币供给的影响主要分析以下几个方面货币形式多元化影响的货币的内涵,是货币的结构和划分都变得复杂,同时也动摇了货币乘数的稳定性,减缓了货币流通速度.     

中国货币与产出关系的实证分析

文章以货币在中国经济增长中的实际作用为研究对象,通过实证的方法,综合传统的货币理论和经济增长理论,对货币在中国经济中的重要作用进行分析,从建国以来的资料入手,考察了中国货币供应和经济增长波动的相互关系,利用模型对货币供应冲击对经济产生的影响进行定量分析,得出了广义货币供给对经济增长作用递减的结论,并运用指标分析了目前中国经济货币化程度与金融效率。     

推行QFII制度对我国货币政策的影响

当前QFII制度在我国已进入较快发展阶段.QFII制度的实施是我国资本市场改革的重要一步,它对我国资本市场的影响无疑是积极而深远的.一国货币政策的制定和实施与资本市场是密不可分的,QFII在未来几年必将对我国货币政策的制定和实施产生重要影响.     

我国货币供应量对居民消费价格指数影响的时滞关系检验

货币政策是我国进行宏观调控的一种主要手段。从理论上讲,货币供应量作为我国目前货币政策的中介目标,货币供应量的增加必将引起消费价格的上涨。文章选取居民消费价格指数作为研究物价稳定的代表指标,在总结各种测算时滞方法的基础上,运用各种不同的方法对我国三种不同口径的货币供应量与居民消费价格指数之间的时滞关系进行了测算。研究表明,我国货币供应量作为我国货币政策的中介是符合我国国情的,同时,测算出的时滞也为政府进行宏观调控提供了数据参考。     

我国汇率制度改革后对外贸易顺差与货币供给关系的实证研究

本文通过协整分析、格兰杰因果等方法,实证检验2005年8月至2008年9月中国对外贸易顺差与货币供给之间的关系。结果显示,在人民币汇率稳定的目标下,贸易顺差可带来广义货币供给和狭义货币供给的增加。因此,在金融危机导致全球经济萎缩的形势下,我国应确立人民币稳定的汇率目标,保持贸易顺差所带来的货币供给的增加,从而拉动国内经济的增长。     

股票市场的货币政策效应的度量

近来的研究揭示股票价格的变动已经越来越成为金融当局关注的重点 ,股票市场已成为货币政策的重要传导渠道。钱小安 (1998)讨论了资产价格变化对货币供求与传导机制的影响 ;梁宇峰 (2 0 0 1)论述了资产价格泡沫对经济和金融体制的危害性 ;瞿强 (2 0 0 1)指出货币政策对资产价格要“关注” ,但不要“钉住”。中国人民银行研究局课题组 (2 0 0 2 )就股票市场的发展对货币政策的影响进行了实证研究 ,提出中央银行的货币政策操作应关注股票市场价格的波动。以上这些研究揭示了股票市场的发展对货币政策各方面的影响 ,说明货币政策关注股票市场的…     

Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business cycle phases with mixed-frequency data

This paper introduces a Markov-switching model in which transition probabilities depend on higher frequency indicators and their lags through polynomial weighting schemes. The MSV-MIDAS model is estimated through maximum likelihood (ML) methods with a slightly modified version of Hamilton’s filter. Monte Carlo simulations show that ML provides accurate estimates, but they suggest some caution in interpreting the tests of the parameters in the transition probabilities. We apply this new model to forecast business cycle turning points in the United States. We properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency variables from financial and energy markets.     

Robustness of testing the equality of two slopes in simple linear structural relationships

The usual test of the equality of two slopes in a simple structural relation-ship is the test formed from the normal approximation using the Fisher information matrix, assuming two explanatory variables are independent. This paper examines the robustness if the explanatory variables are, in fact, dependent. A more efficient estimator is derived for a matched pair situation.     

Circular balanced repeated measurement designs in periods of three different sizes

Abstract

Repeated measurement designs are widely used in medicine, pharmacology, animal sciences and psychology. If there is a restriction on the total number of treatments, some experimental units can receive on the total length of time while some experimental units can remain in the trial, then repeated measurements designs with unequal period sizes should be used. In this article, some infinite series are developed to generate the minimal balanced repeated measurement designs in periods of three different sizes p₁, p₂ and p₃, where 2?≤?p₃?<?p₂ ≤ 10 and p₂?<?p₁.     

Using multivariate rank sum tests to evaluate effectiveness of computer applications in teaching business statistics

Arguments about using computer facilities in classroom teaching have received a lot of attention over time. Using the computer facilities will be helpful to demonstrate real-world applications, while poor data or inappropriate case studies might hinder the applications of the computer programs in classroom teaching. In this paper, we examine the impacts that using computer programs to teach business statistics have on students in the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University. The results show that students are attracted to the interactive computer programs designed for the business statistics course, and students are more motivated to attend classes when computer programs are applied in teaching. Furthermore, computer programs help students to understand confusing topics, and students feel that teaching them to use computer facilities really improves their own abilities to apply similar programs in analyzing real-world problems.     

Minimal circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs in periods of three different sizes

Repeated measurements designs (RMD) are widely used in medicine, pharmacology, animal sciences, and psychology. If there is a restriction on the total number of treatments, some experimental units can receive on the total length of time while some experimental units can remain in the trial, then RMD in periods of unequal sizes should be used. In this article, some infinite series are developed to generate the minimal circular strongly balanced RMD in periods of three different sizes p₁, p₂, and p₃, where 2 ≤ p₃ < p₂ ≤ 10.     

Devaluation expectations and the unit root hypothesis: The Italian Lira in the European monetary system

Summary In several studies the unit root hypothesis of EMS exchange rates is analysed within the context of devaluation expectations estimation. By means of bootstrap inference it is shown that these procedures are not compatible with standard Dickey-Fuller significance levels and may lead to a wrong rejection of the null hypothesis. In the case of the Italian Lira/Deutsche Mark exchange rate, the hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected and expectations can be modelled by means of a reflected Brownian motion. The estimated devaluation expectations are related with some macro variables which provide evidence for the structure of expectations. This research has been partially supported with 40% and 60% MURST grants. The author wishes to thank the Bank of Italy for the exchange rates and the interest rates data and Ulf S?derstr?m for providing macroeconomic indicators. Useful suggestions from Riccardo Cesari, Michele Costa and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.     

The population policy of the USSR

Developments in population policy in the USSR are outlined in this editorial. Mention is made of achievements in lowering mortality, particularly in the 1950s and 1970s. Recently adopted pro-natalist measures are described, and the results are stated to ba a rise in the birth rate in 1983 that was sustained in 1984 and 1985. Attention is also given to policies designed to encourage labor migration in response to labor shortages in some regions.     

我国货币政策与财政政策的协调配合

 近年来我国经济成功地实现“软着陆”后,又面临着前所未有的下滑困境,突出表现在企业普遍开工不足、产品积压、市场滞销、工人失业,特别是通货膨胀、经济增长率持续下滑。为了抑制这些问题的负效应,我国的宏观货币政策和财政政策先后启用,并在刺激有效需求、促进经济回升方面具有一定的成效,但远远没有达到预期的目标。表现在投资需求增幅下降、消费启而不动、通货紧缩日益蔓延。那么,如何看待我国货币财政政策的有效性问题呢？ 简单地从表面上看,确实存在着实效的问题,但如果我们从政策所依托的大环境入手。深入到货币财政政策的内部机制,具体地分析其效力,可能会得出不同的结论。     

Some new construction of circular weakly balanced repeated measurements designs in periods of two different sizes

Abstract

Balanced repeated measurements designs (RMDs) balance out the residual effects. Williams Latin square designs work as minimal combinatorial balanced as well as variance balanced for RMDs for p (period sizes) = v (number of treatments). If minimal balanced RMDs cannot be constructed for the situations where p must be less than v then weakly balanced RMDs should be preferred. In this article, some generators are developed to generate circular weakly balanced RMDs in periods of two different sizes. To obtain the proposed designs, some construction procedures are also described for some of the cases where we could not develop generators.