A Game Theory Approach for Assessment of Risk and Deployment of Police Patrols in Response to Criminal Activity in San Francisco

An efficient police patrol schedule must ensure the allocation of an appropriate number of officers sufficient to respond to the danger of criminal incidents, particularly in an urban environment, even when the available number of personnel is limited. This study proposes a framework that incorporates two game theory models designed for the allocation of police officers to patrol shifts. In the first step, the interactions of three factors between the criminal and the operation captain are modeled as a zero-sum, noncooperative game, after which a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium method is used to derive the risk value for each district to be patrolled. In the second step, the risk values are used to compute the Shapley value for all 10 districts, for three different threat levels. A fair allocation of police personnel based on the Shapley value is made with a minimum set of personnel deployment costs. The efficacy of the proposed method is verified using openly available data from the San Francisco City Police detailing incidents from the year 2016. The experimental results show that police planners can use this framework to quantitatively evaluate the criminal threat in each district when deciding upon the deployment of patrol officers for three shifts per day.     

The effect of intersector dispatching on police patrol performance

The experiment reported here concerned the relative effect of intersector dispatching on police patrol performance. Using a computer simulation model, it was found that the inclusion of intersector dispatching can have a significant impact on patrol response time. This should be of interest to patrol administrators and researchers who study this area. Despite the anticipated problems in its implementation, intersector dispatching holds great promise for improving patrol operations.     

额外资源按需分配方法研究

文献Wei Quanling等^[1]的最后一段提出了这样一类额外资源分配问题：假设有一些额外的投入资源将要分配给全部或者部分决策单元,如果我们希望分配结果对于整个系统（该系统由全部决策单元组成）来说是最有益的,那么应当如何分配这些额外的投入资源?他们同时还指出系统中哪些决策单元能够获得额外的投入资源,这不仅取决于决策单元的效率,还需要考虑规模报酬。针对此类问题,本文提出一种额外资源按需分配方法：首先,综合决策单元的技术效率与其投影点的规模弹性构建发展曲线,并由决策单元的发展曲线获知其投入变动与产出变动的对应关系;然后,把额外资源分成若干等份,依次分配每一个等份的额外资源,每次分配使系统的总产出增加实现最大,直至分配完全部的额外资源,或者分配某一份额外资源不再带来任何的产出增加,分配就会停止;最后,把决策单元在每一次分配过程中获得的额外资源进行累加,得到这个决策单元最终的分配结果。全文的最后分别在"一个投入一个产出"和"两个投入一个产出"情况下给出两个具体的分配算例。分配结果表明,这种按需分配方法不会缩减任意一个决策单元当前占有的投入资源数量,并且还可以有效地在辨识出某种额外资源在规模上和结构上存在的冗余,从而有效地避免不必要的分配。     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

The Employment Relationship and Inequality: How and Why Changes in Employment Practices are Reshaping Rewards in Organizations

We review the literature on recent changes to US employment relationships, focusing on the causes of those changes and their consequences for inequality. The US employment model has moved from a closed, internal system to one more open to external markets and institutional pressures. We describe the growth of short-term employment relationships, contingent work, outsourcing, and performance pay as well as the success of social identity movements in shaping employment benefits. In doing so, we address the role of organizations as sites of conflict within and between stakeholder groups, examining how struggles among stakeholders have contributed to reorganizing employment relationships. We also examine how these changes have affected inequality by (i) influencing the distribution of rewards within organizations (via changes in the determination of pay and benefits and in the allocation of workers to jobs) and (ii) altering, on a macro level, how rewards are distributed among different stakeholders. In closing, we identify areas where future work is urgently needed.     

Dealing with uncertainty in the oil industry

This paper suggests that, as in many industries today, uncertainties constitute the environment in which the oil industry operates: that the relationships between these uncertainties lead to a dynamic view of future environments; and that the resulting strategic considerations establish a basis for resource allocation.     

The role of trade unions in strategic planning

The changing climate of industrial relations has created a more puralist and complex state of relationships within the industrial sector of the economy. Trade unions and their employees are demanding and achieving a greater degree of participation in both the long and short term issues which affect company decisions in terms of either resource allocation or general policy. This article examines the role of trade unions within the context of strategic planning and argues that their increasing involvement is inevitable and their role should therefore be effectively recognized and their contribution to the development of corporate strategy ensured.     

Maximizing customer equity subject to capacity constraints

This paper considers a firm that wants to optimally allocate limited capacity to heterogeneous customer segments in order to maximize its customer equity. The decision whether to accept or to reject a customer׳s request in a current period influences his repurchase behavior in later periods. The allocation process becomes complex, when demand exceeds capacity, because the isolated determination and optimization of a single customer׳s lifetime value is no longer feasible. Using a Markov decision process formulation, we study how to trade off short-term attainable revenues and long-term customer relationships. Furthermore, we analyze when and how intertemporal customer behavior influences capacity allocation. Finally, we investigate the impact of limited capacity on the customer lifetime value by introducing an opportunity cost-based approach that understands customer profitability as a customer׳s contribution to customer equity.     

Allocation Processes in Mergers and Acquisitions: An Organizational Justice Perspective

This paper contributes to the understanding of allocation processes in mergers and acquisitions by applying an organizational justice perspective. This is a perspective that has been neglected in past research on mergers and acquisitions, but which is important in understanding the challenges managers face in allocating human resources and other resources of symbolic importance. In particular, the paper examines the trade-offs between multiple goals in selecting distributive and procedural justice rules, and identifies factors that constrain these choices. Mergers and acquisitions are typically driven by multiple motives. The findings presented in this paper suggest that there are different approaches to applying justice rules in mergers and acquisitions and that these approaches have different implications for meeting multiple goals. The choice of equity in combinations with fair procedural rules is an approach which complies with the two goals of maximizing economic productivity and fostering relationships. However, the choice of this approach rests upon an unbalanced power relationship and relatively low ambiguity. When there is a high degree of ambiguity and a balanced power relationship, management has to make trade-offs between maximizing economic productivity and fostering relationships.     

Solving Resource Allocation Problems When Earning Effects Are Present

Learning effects play an important role in certain resource allocation problems, and several authors have proposed models for these problems that capture the relevant relationships. However, the models may be difficult to implement or have shortcomings in the prescribed solution procedures. In this paper, we selectively review the work to date and present a simple reformulation that facilitates solution by off-the-shelf software.     

集群创新合作网络的自组织演化模型及其仿真研究

通过刻画集群主体的理性创新合作决策行为,建立集群创新合作网络演化模型,运用仿真方法研究网络的自组织演化规律及拓扑结构特征等.结果表明,知识溢出效率越高,网络越快自组织演化至稳定状态,其资源配置效率及公平性也越高.知识非完全溢出情形下,出现合作主体间的影响力异类匹配,网络具有普遍的小世界性特征.知识的互补性并非建立创新合作关系的必要条件,潜在合作伙伴的网络位置也是独立于知识水平的重要影响因素.     

具有计算复杂性的VCG机制投标策略研究

在组合拍卖的获胜者确定问题(WDP)具有计算复杂性的情况下,研究了相应的VCG机制中投标者的投标策略问题。通过提出2类重要概率,描述了投标者对于VCG机制WDP算法和其真实估价对于组合拍卖分配效率的信念。通过建模分析,揭示了在具有计算复杂性的VCG机制中,上述2类重要概率、投标者获胜后事后效用、跳投标增量与投标策略之间的确定性关系。     

银行股权关联、银行业竞争与民营企业融资约束

本文以公司参股银行为视角,在行为金融理论、企业组织理论与信贷融资理论相融合的分析框架下,构建基于异质预期的信贷配置模型,探讨了银行股权关联和银行业竞争影响民营企业融资约束的传导机理。以A股民营企业2006~2013年的数据为例,运用Heckman两阶段回归等方法,我们发现:参股银行和提高银行业竞争性均能显著缓解民营企业的融资约束,参股比例越高该效应越强,且两者在缓解融资约束方面存在替代关系。但进一步的分析显示,银行股权关联对资本配置的影响具有两面性:即银行股权关联所带来的融资优势能够减少因资金短缺导致的投资不足,但代理问题的存在也可能导致银行股权关联被部分异化,使其对于资本配置的正向作用减弱甚至被异化为利益寻租的工具。上述结论既丰富了委托代理理论与公司财务理论的相关研究成果,也有助于我们深入理解银行股权关联的"正面效果"和"负面效果"。     

A comparison of approaches to exploit budget allocation data in cross-sectional maximum likelihood estimation of multi-attribute choice models

In this paper, four calibration approaches to exploit budget allocation data in maximum likelihood estimation of multi-attribute choice models are proposed. They differ on the implicit meaning of the dependent variable: (A) share of consumers according to the preferred alternative; (B) share of sales; (C) average share of consumer's budget; and (D) share of sales according to the preferred alternative. Differences between them can be conceived as depending on two circumstances: customer loyalty and customer selectivity. These are tested in the context of spatial consumer behavior, market response to hypermarket chains being represented as a function of their location strategies. Results show that different nuances on the definition of the dependent variable lead to slightly different relationships with the explanatory variables and to different predictive capabilities.     

Pricing,Allocation, and Overbooking in Dynamic Service Network Competition When Demand Is Uncertain

We study the problem of combined pricing, resource allocation, and overbooking by service providers involved in dynamic noncooperative oligopolistic competition on a network that represents the relationships of the providers to one another and to their customers when service demand is uncertain. We propose, analyze, and compute solutions for a model that is more general than other models reported in the revenue management literature to date. In particular, previous models typically consider only three or four of five key revenue management features that we have purposely built into our model: (1) pricing, (2) resource allocation, (3) dynamic competition, (4) an explicit network, and (5) uncertain demand. Illustrative realizations of the abstract problem we study are those of airline revenue management and service provision by companies facing resource constraints. Under fairly general regularity conditions, we prove existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium for dynamic oligopolistic service network competition described by our model. We also show, for an appropriate notion of regularity, that competition leads to the underpricing of network services, a finding numerically illustrated by an example of intermediate size. Our proposed algorithm can be implemented using well‐known off‐the‐shelf commercial software.     

A location analysis approach for military maintenance scheduling with geographically dispersed service areas

This research uses a two-stage maximal covering location problem (MCLP) model to develop Inter continental ballistic missile (ICBM) maintenance schedules for the US Air Force. Solutions are compared to actual missile maintenance activities accomplished at F. E. Warren Air Force Base (AFB), Wyoming in May 2005. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of altering security response times and the number of security patrol areas on the quality of daily maintenance schedules and personnel usage. Results indicate marked improvement over traditional Air Force scheduling methods. In addition sensitivity analysis identifies the levels at which the quality and quantity of maintenance performance is impacted.     

Production quantity allocation for order fulfilment in the supply chain: a neural network based approach

In the current global business environment, it is very important to know how to allocate products from the producer to buyers (or distributors). If products are not appropriately distributed due to absence of an effective allocation policy, the producer and buyers cannot expect to increase customer satisfaction and financial profit. Sometimes some buyers can order more than the actual demand due to inappropriately forecasting customer orders. This is the big obstacle to the effective allocation of products. If the producer can become aware of buyers’ actual demands, it is possible to realise high-level order fulfilment through the effective allocation of products. In this study, new allocation policies are proposed considering buyers’ demands. The back propagation algorithm, one of the learning algorithms in neural network theory, is used to recognise actual demands from the previous buyers’ orders. After excluding surplus demands included in buyers’ demands, products are allocated to buyers according to one of the existing allocation policies depending on the company's decision. In the numerical examples, new allocation policies reducing buyers’ surplus demands outperform previous allocation policies with respect to average amount of backorder.     

POLICE PATROL BEAT DESIGN: ALLOCATION OF EFFORT AND EVALUATION OF EXPECTED PERFORMANCE*

This paper describes an iterative process for deploying police patrol force manpower. An application of the process is described as a case study of the St. Louis County Police Department (Missouri). The application is based on the county geographic information system (COGIS) and uses the hypercube queuing model (HQM). The procedures presented illustrate the generation of performance characteristics associated with a specific beat deployment. The application results indicate that the iterative model presented is a reliable and valid instrument for allocating police patrols.     

考虑满意度的两阶段DEA固定成本分摊方法

考虑具有相同的投入和产出的两阶段决策单元的固定成本分摊问题。将待分摊的固定成本作为一种新的投入,建立两阶段加性DEA模型。首先证明了各决策单元从自身角度出发可以找到至少一种分摊方案,使其自身整体和阶段效率都达到Pareto有效。然后证明了在公共的权重下,至少存在一种分摊方案可以使得各决策单元整体和阶段效率都达到Pareto有效。并给出了这样的有效成本分摊方案集。为了得到公平的成本分摊方案,定义了各DMU各阶段对分摊方案的满意度,最大化最小的满意度,可以得到最终的成本分摊方案。将问题拓展到两阶段存在共享投入的生产系统中,这些性质定理同样成立。数值算例部分将本文与Yu等（2016）的研究结果进行了对比,验证了本文方法的有效性,指出了本文方法的优越性。本文的方法综合考虑了效率和公平,得到的固定成本分摊方案公平合理。     

大型建筑工程项目资源配置模型及策略研究——基于系统动力学的建模和仿真

大型建筑工程项目多类型资源的有效配置,是现阶段项目管理理论与工程管理实践面临的关键问题,特别是在考虑工艺顺序和间歇时间的工作可操作性特点,以及多资源之间反馈影响的情况下。通过整合挣值法和系统动力学理论,在分析资源可用性和工作可操作性之间因果关系的基础上,本文构建了大型建筑工程项目多资源配置的系统动力学模型。以上海市重大工程投资统计数据作为模型参数依据,模型的仿真结果表明:建筑工程项目不同类型资源其配置重要性与系统影响性存在显著差异,在制定资源配置策略时应同时考虑项目运作方式的特征与多资源之间的匹配,资源不匹配则容易导致资源配置系统失去稳态或策略失效。这为进一步研究项目管理中多资源配置提供了理论参考和实践支持。