中国农民工流动机理的理论探索

文章在评述国际上人口迁移机理理论的基础上,结合国内学者对中国农村人口流动的研究成果,系统地分析了中国农民工流动的内在机理,提出了对经典人口流动机理理论的修正,并通过对浙江省农民工流动的实证研究,探讨了影响农民工流动的各种因素,重点分析了经济动因对农民工流动形成的内在机理。     

新一代流动劳动力的特征及流动趋势——来自甘肃省10个样本村的调查与分析

文章利用在甘肃省10个样本村调查所获得的资料,对比分析了两代农村流动劳动力的特征及流动趋势.研究结果表明,中国农村劳动力流动已进入一个新的阶段,出生在改革开放后的新一代流动劳动者将逐渐成为流动主体.他们的流动观念、流动动因、流动行为和生活预期等已发生了很大变化.他们的流动已表现出一些新特征、新趋势,这些变化将对中国社会经济发展产生深远的影响.     

对中国流动人口“梯次流动”的理论思考

针对中国大规模流动人口的流动特点及其流动过程进行理论思考,提出梯次流动概念和流动人口的梯次流动形式、前提条件和原理。将梯次流动定义为在流动迁移的过程中,流动人口凭借自身以及外部的力量不断改善其个人和家庭的福利状况,从而呈现出的一种渐进性的向上流动现象。梯次流动成为一种人口流动中不断优化决策的过程,梯次流动的实现需要一定的社会经济环境,中国近三十年来的改革开放和社会经济发展创造了必要的条件,促成了梯次流动动机的形成和实现的可能。梯次流动的分析视角有助于从微观视角分析个人流动到家庭流动迁移完成的过渡过程,更好地认识中国流动人口现象的特殊性并完善相应的政策与制度。     

选择性、传统还是适应:流动对农村育龄妇女男孩偏好的影响研究

我国人口的大规模流动正在改变着农村育龄妇女的生育观念,传统生育观念中的男孩偏好逐步弱化.文章梳理了流动对人们生育观念影响的相关理论,并通过对调查数据的分析,在控制了人口流动的选择偏差的条件下,比较了从未流动的农村育龄妇女和有流动经历的农村育龄妇女在男孩偏好方面的差异,并进一步研究了“流动时是否与丈夫在一起”的经历对农村育龄妇女男孩偏好的影响.结果表明,有流动经历和没有流动经历的妇女在男孩偏好方面确实存在显著的差异,这种差异一方面是由于流动的选择性造成的,另一方面也源于流动使妇女的生育观念更为现代化,弱化了她们的男孩偏好.但是,流出地的文化传统依然通过家庭和社区影响着妇女生育的性别偏好.     

人口流动对输出地人力资本影响研究

文章从理论层面分析了中国人口流动与输出地人力资本积累之间的关系,认为人口流动对输出地人力资本既有抑制效应也有促进效应,其强弱主要取决于经济发展水平、地区收入差距和人口流动规模。基于人口流动省级面板数据,利用混合OLS和随机效应估计的经验研究结果表明,人口流动对输出地人力资本的主效应是负向影响,并随着输出地和输入地收入差距的扩大及人口流动规模的增加而变弱。就中国目前的经济发展水平、地区收入差距水平和人口流动规模而言,人口流动总体上削弱了输出地的人力资本积累。     

西藏的流动人口与人口流动——基于第五、第六次人口普查数据的比较

文章通过比较第五、第六次人口普查相关数据,对进藏跨省人口流动、西藏区内人口流动和区内向外人口流动情况进行了分析。西藏人口流动的规模虽小但发展速度较快,这得益于国家政策和西藏经济发展的双重驱动。西藏当前的人口流动状况与经济社会发展相适应,形成了良性互动,在人口流动加速的情况下,需要注意跟进流动人口的社会管理与服务,提升西藏本地劳动人口的市场竞争力,鼓励和支持西藏本地人口的跨省流动。     

迁徙中国视野下我国县域人口流动状况与发展挑战

基于全国人口普查数据和全国1%抽样调查资料,从跨县流动和县内流动两方面,系统地梳理了2000年以来县域人口流动的现状特征和变化趋势。研究发现,我国县域人口跨县流动活跃性正迅速增强,净流出活跃型县域数量迅速增加,跨县流出人口规模迅速扩大,跨县流出人口的中老年化趋势明显、省内流动占比增加、流动原因趋于多元。与此同时,净流入活跃型县域和跨县流入人口的增长缓慢,跨县流入人口中,老年人占比有所下降、省内人口占比不断提高、社会型流动占比有所降低。我国县内流动人口规模止升趋降,乡城流动稳占主流,县内流动儿童和老人规模持续扩大,家庭、教育和宜居成为县内流动主要原因。我国县域已由乡土时代步入迁徙时代,人口流失加快了县域人口负增长转变,区域分化提升了分类治理难度,流留儿童带来学校教育和亲情双重挑战,流留老人增加提高了养老公共服务需求,人口流动重塑了县域家庭结构。基于此,要妥善应对县域人口流失、强化县域的分类施策和公共服务多样化供给。     

流动儿童心理状况及讨论

本文运用在北京市某区进行的小样本抽样调查数据,比较分析了分别就读于流动儿童学校和公立学校的流动儿童的心理状况,并从流动儿童的个人特征和家庭特征两个方面讨论了影响流动儿童心理状况的原因。结果表明,流动儿童学校中的流动儿童的心理状况相对较好,因此,从儿童发展的角度来看,流动儿童学校的存在不仅是合理的,而且有关部门应该对当前处于自由发展、自由竞争中的流动儿童学校给予某种指导与帮助,以期能够为流动儿童的健康成长、更好地学习与发展提供某种政策支持。同时,更应该注意到本地常住儿童的心理状况相对较差的事实,这可以被视为当前鼓励流动儿童以公立学校就读为主的受教育政策的负面效应之一。公立学校应该从三个方面采取措施防止这种状况的扩大。当然,流动儿童的心理评价及各种影响后果的研究仍然有待于深入的讨论。     

社会网络视角下劳动力流动的机理与效应研究

社会网络在劳动力组团式流动过程中扮演了非常重要的作用。因此,本文从劳动力效用函数的角度来研究社会网络对于组团式劳动力流动的影响,并采用“蛛网模型”研究了在社会网络的作用下劳动力市场的波动情况,结果发现：社会网络通过影响劳动力的供给弹性,进而影响劳动力市场的运行,主要表现为加快了劳动力的“异地流动”,而减缓劳动力的“易地流动”。最后,通过微观数据和一家大型民营企业的调研数据统计得出,社会网络确实对劳动力流动以及组团式流动起到了重要作用。     

中国人口的流动预期寿命

随着我国人口流动率的不断增长,人口流动的长期化趋势日益明显。对于流动的长期化或处于流动状态的时间长度,一般使用流动人口在目的地的平均居住时间长度来衡量。本研究提出了一个新的概念和指标,即流动预期寿命。它是指在给定的分年龄人口流动率的条件下,人们预期在流动状态下度过的年数。它是通过编制生命表进行计算的。平均居住时间受到年龄结构的影响,而平均流动预期寿命排除了年龄结构的影响。通过人口普查数据的计算,我国人口的平均流动预期寿命在过去10年增长了一倍,由2000年的5.4年上升到2010年的10.8年,2010年男性的平均流动预期寿命略高于女性。人口流动的常态化和长期化成为日益显著的趋势。     

Polygynists and Their Wives in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Five Demographic and Health Surveys

Differential polygyny in Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia is investigated using individual-level Demographic and Health Surveys data. As well as contrasting polygynists' first wives with women in monogamous unions, the analysis distinguishes higher-order wives from first wives. This permits study of the determinants of the prevalence and intensity of polygyny respectively. Polygyny and other aspects of marriage interlock in very similar ways in all five countries. Individuals' experience of polygyny tends to reflect their luck in the marriage market rather than their socio-economic characteristics. While polygyny is less prevalent in urban areas, other socio-economic factors are important only in Kenya and Zambia, the two countries where less than 25 per cent of married women are in polygynous unions. The prevalence and intensity of polygyny are negatively associated. Thus, any drop in the prevalence of polygyny in Africa may be accompanied by a rise in the number of wives per polygynist.     

Scrambled systems: the (im)mobilities of ‘storm Desmond’

This article examines a 3-day blackout, triggered by a ‘1-in-100-year’ rainfall event. Storms and floods account for almost three-quarters of weather-related disasters, and are typically accompanied by cascading infrastructure failures, which pattern and amplify their effects in highly significant ways. Such disruptions reveal aspects of everyday life that ordinarily remain obscure, including capacities for resilience embodied in people, cities and infrastructure. The article proposes that disruption events be understood in terms of ‘scrambles’, as they involve abrupt demobilisation and remobilisation of a range of people and materials. The article firstly examines the astonishing capacity for failure latent in ‘pervasively powered’ arrangements, as well as the many ways in which people and things were ‘scrambled’ in response. The article then proceeds to explore the ways in which vulnerabilities result in part from mobilisation in response to previous disruption events, before examining the ‘circuits’ that link far-flung places in mobile disaster geographies, global patterns of electricity dependence, the rise of data overload in the ‘cloud’ to carbon overload in the atmosphere. The article concludes by presenting further evidence in support of the thesis that disruptions and disasters are part of a ‘new normal’, and what this means for prevailing sociotechnical arrangements reliant on ‘sunk’ infrastructure.     

1991年以来俄罗斯的中国移民构成分析

苏联解体后,俄罗斯境内的中国移民规模逐渐增大,随着俄罗斯经济社会的变化,中国移民的构成也变得更加多样和复杂。对俄罗斯边境地区四个州的中国移民情况调查表明,中国移民群体在移民类型、目的、法律地位、地区来源和去向、技术水平和行业分布等构成方面呈现出一定的特点。虽然中国的劳动移民在整体上还没有对俄罗斯劳动力市场和人口就业领域产生关键性的影响,但在俄罗斯东部,特别是在贸易、建筑业和农业等领域,移民的作用日益重要。     

京津冀人口集聚对能源消费的影响

京津冀作为我国重要的人口集聚区,其区域发展面临严重的能源和环境问题。首先,基于STIRPAT模型构建京津冀面板数据模型,研究1990—2017年京津冀人口密度、经济增长、产业结构和环境规制对能源消费的影响。其次,采用SVAR模型通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解,研究京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的作用机理和动态影响关系。结果显示,京津冀三地的人口密度、人均实际GDP与能源消费之间存在正向影响关系,其中河北省影响系数最大;北京和天津第三产业占比与能源消费之间存在反向影响关系,河北省第三产业占比对能源消费的影响不显著;北京和天津的环境规制对能源消费影响不显著,河北省环境规制对能源消费具有正向影响;京津冀地区和京冀两地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响在短期呈现负向效应,但是在中长期京津冀地区和三地人口密度变动对能源消费的影响均先上升然后缓慢下降,人口集聚具有集约用能效应。相对于能源消费自身影响而言,京津冀人口密度变动对能源消费的贡献相对较小,其影响效应有限。最后,对京津冀人口流动和能源消费一体化协同发展提出对策建议。     

Changes in functional limitation and survival among older Taiwanese, 1993, 1996, and 1999

Using data from the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan, we investigate changes in difficulties in walking and climbing stairs, tasks that represent basic lower-body movements less likely to be influenced by changes in environment and social roles than are activities and instrumental activities of daily living. Results are shown for unadjusted prevalence rates and rates adjusted for changes in population composition. The findings indicate that Taiwan does not appear to be experiencing the improvements in functioning witnessed recently in the United States. Prevalence of functional limitation increased between 1993 and 1996 and between 1996 and 1999. One possible reason is the change in old-age survival, which appears to have benefited those who have functional limitations, especially in a severe form. The Universal Health Insurance programme, established in 1995, may have increased access to care and thus the survival of those in poorest health.     

城乡老年人生活质量与人口社会学特征关联初探

人口老龄化使我国老年人口数量迅速增长,呈现出老龄化+少子化的人口结构新常态。江苏省老龄化比例为20.57%,居全国各省区之首,老龄化区域和城乡差异也更加显著。兴化地区地处苏北农村,呈现小城市大农村结构,经济欠发达,城乡人群的生活水平差距较大。本研究目标人群为兴化城乡老年人群,通过调查城乡老年人群人口社会学和生活质量的变化特征和相关性,为政府和社会对老龄化事业的发展与决策提供依据。总计305例60岁以上的老年人群参与调查。结果显示,城市老年人群已婚、与子女住、文化程度、退休和自觉家庭经济情况良好等人口社会学特征维度好于农村人群（P≤0.01）;而农村丧偶、独居、没有工作和自觉家庭经济情况差等维度高于城市人群（P≤0.01）;男性老年人群文化程度显著高于女性（P<0.01）;冠心病患病构成比上,农村老年人群显著高于城市老年人群（P<0.01）,男性老年人群高于女性（P<0.05）;而女性老年人群患高脂血症构成比显著高于男性（P<0.01）。结果提示,兴化地区城乡老年人群生活质量差异显著,但城乡老年人群在躯体健康和疾病防治中的差异已经明显缩小,说明老年人生活质量的变化与人口社会学特征相关联。在经济持续发展和人口结构老龄化的新常态下,社会和家庭应更多地关注和改善老年人群,尤其是农村老年人群的生存环境,提高他们的生活质量。     

Effects of capacity on resource input and the aquatic metazoan community structure in phytotelmata

Aquatic metazoan communities in treeholes and bamboo stumps were studied on Tsushima Island, Japan, in March and June in relation to the habitat size and the resouce amount. The amount of leaf detritus increased with an increase in the capacity (volume) of the phytotelma. The input rate of leaves depended upon the opening area of the phytotelma. Twenty-one metazoan inhabitant taxa consisted of 17 dipteran saprophages, a helodid beetle larva, a nematoda, a naidid, and a predator,Toxorhynchites towadensis mosquito larva. Treeholes harbored 17 taxa and bamboo stumps 20; 16 taxa were common in both phytotelmata. The number of taxa and the biomass of metazoa per phytotelma was positively correlated with the capacity. The densities of dominant saprophages such as helodid, chironomid, andCulicoides larvae were positively correlated with the capacity of phytotelmata, and the variation in their abundance contributed much to the variation in the species composition in individual phytotelmata. With an increase in capacity, treeholes harbored more helodids andCulicoides, whereas bamboo stumps harbored more chironomids andDasyhelea. Thus, the amount of resource, species richness and biomass per phytotelma largely depended upon the capacity, and the difference in community structure between treeholes and bamboo stumps was attributable to the differential colonization patterns of different taxa.     

再论“小二胎”现象：区域比较的视角——以H省三个典型乡镇为例

本文利用H省三个典型乡镇的访谈资料与统计数据以区域比较的视角对“小二胎”现象进行了再研究。研究结果表明,三镇小二胎现象具有诸多共性,但也存在不少差异。各地都存在较强的男孩偏好和二孩偏好,加之政策环境在2002年的变化,使得此后各地都普遍产生小二胎现象。但是由于村庄社会结构的不同．男孩偏好和二孩偏好程度不一,所以各地的小二胎现象又表现出一定差异。小二胎现象不仅大幅提高了超生率和生育率,而且推高了出生性别比,因此应该引起相关部门的高度重视。在农民生育观念没有彻底转变的情况下,国家要赋予基层干部与政策要求相匹配的治理手段,以稳定我国来之不易的低生育水平。针对各地的区域差异,要采取分类治理的方略。     

From Mothers of the “People's Home” to Biologically Rational Consumers

The aim of the present article is to study how women's alcohol consumption has been defined and contested in the Swedish press from 1955 to 2010 in relation to the development of Swedish society from a social democratic welfare state to a neoliberal competition state. Our material consists of articles published in the largest Swedish national and regional newspapers in 1955, 1965, 1977, 1982, 1995, 2004, and 2010. In the study, we apply Fraser's concepts of recognition and redistribution to analyse how the press contributed to the formation of cultural injustices and counter-claims through its recognition of women's drinking, and how these cultural injustices and counter-claims have conditioned the redistribution of societal resources. Our analysis shows that, during the study period, women were recognized in the Swedish press in limited and stigmatizing subject positions. These dominating representations of drinking women changed over time in an unpredictable way. As collectively shared, widely accepted cultural images, they tended to downplay the possibility of women achieving equal and just participation in cultural interaction, social activities, and healthcare services. In counter-discourses, the possibilities for women to formulate public claims in order to make surrounding structures more “enabling” of their independency, weakened during the study period.     

Learning to listen: epistemic injustice and gothic film in dementia care education

Listening is a critical and under-theorized dimension to struggles against injustice and marginalization. In the wake of critiques from the disability movement of the pre-eminence of expert medical voices, educating professionals to listen to health service users has become particularly critical. The utterances of people with dementia have frequently been subject to, in Miranda Fricker’s terms, “testimonial injustice”: that is, seen as irrational, unreliable, and not to be believed. This article will examine the way in which the generic conventions of the gothic, more specifically what Mary Ann Doane has described as “the paranoid women’s film,” are used in a short film, Darkness in the Afternoon, widely screened in dementia care education in the UK and internationally. Drawing on interviews with dementia care trainers, analysis of training materials, and the film itself, this article proposes that gender and genre is used in this film as a strategy to reorient the listening and affective practices and testimonial sensibilities of health and aged care workers.