Pretrial Bargaining in the Face of a Random Court Decision: Evidence from Laboratory Games

If negotiation over ownership of an asset is unsuccessful, agents go to court to determine possession. Experiments examine how the presence of a stochastic court decision affects pretrial bargaining behavior. Two players have private information over the value of an asset, owned by one player. If there is no acceptable trade price, a random court decision assigns ownership. The impact of a second stage court decision on bargaining outcomes and the efficiency of trades is measured. Courts reduce the total earnings of players and the frequency of efficient trades. Relative earnings and bargaining behavior depend on which agent proposes the trade price.     

Rethinking Risk Attitude: Aspiration as Pure Risk

There exists no completely satisfactory theory of risk attitude in current normative decision theories. Existing notions confound attitudes to pure risk with unrelated psychological factors such as strength of preference for certain outcomes, and probability weighting. In addition traditional measures of risk attitude frequently cannot be applied to non-numerical consequences, and are not psychologically intuitive. I develop Pure Risk theory which resolves these problems – it is consistent with existing normative theories, and both internalises and generalises the intuitive notion of risk being related to the probability of not achieving one’s aspirations. Existing models which ignore pure risk attitudes may be misspecified, and effects hitherto modelled as loss aversion or utility curvature may be due instead to Pure Risk attitudes.     

论国际法上的解决争端机制

国际法作为规定国家之间相互关系的原则、规则和制度的体系 ,对维持正常的国际秩序具有重要意义。而争端解决机制的确立和发展是实施国际法的重要途径。文章以联合国、海洋法公约和世界贸易组织的解决争端机制为例 ,就国际法上的解决争端机制的特征及新发展做了初步探讨。     

It is Whether You Win or Lose: The Importance of the Overall Probabilities of Winning or Losing in Risky Choice

Imagine that you own a five-outcome gamble with the following payoffs and probabilities: ($100, .20; $50, .20; Imagine that you own a five-outcome gamble with the following payoffs and probabilities: ($100, .20; $50, .20; $0, .20; –$25, .20; –$50, .20). What happens when the opportunity to improve such a gamble is provided by a manipulation that adds value to one outcome versus another outcome, particularly when the opportunity to add value to one outcome versus another outcome changes the overall probability of a gain or the overall probability of a loss? Such a choice provides a simple test of the expected utility model (EU), original prospect theory (OPT), and cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A study of risky choices involving 375 respondents indicates that respondents were most sensitive to changes in outcome values that either increased the overall probability of a strict gain or decreased the overall probability of a strict loss. These results indicate more support for OPT rather than CPT and EU under various assumptions about the shape of the utility and value and weighting functions. Most importantly, the main difference between the various expectation models of risky choice occurs for outcomes near the reference value. A second study of risky choice involving 151 respondents again demonstrated the sensitivity of subjects to reducing the probability of a strict loss even at the cost of reduced expected value. Consequently, we argue that theories of how people choose among gambles that involve three or more consequences with both gains and losses need to include measures of the overall probabilities of a gain and of a loss.JEL Classification  D81     

The Ecology of Risk Taking

We analyze the risk level chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality. We show that even risk-neutral agents will choose risk strategically to enhance their reputation in the market, and that such choices will be influenced by the mix of other agents' types. Assuming that the market has no strong prior about whether the agents are good or bad, good agents will choose low levels of risk, and bad agents high levels. Empirical evidence is gathered on 2462 firms over 24 years. The results support the model: agents of higher quality have less variable performance.     

政策实施成本与上下级政府讨价还价的发生机制——基于四东县休禁牧案例的分析

讨价还价是中国上下级政府互动关系中很重要的一种形式。本文详细记述了四东县草原休禁牧政策实施过程中上下级政府的多轮讨价还价,县政府制定政策,政策严格落实导致政府与民众的冲突频发,乡镇政府以冲突为策略与县政府讨价还价,最终获得了相对宽松的执行空间。本文使用实施成本分析框架解释了讨价还价行为的发生机制,执行过程成本、上级施加成本、民众施加成本高昂,致使乡镇政府只能选择与上级讨价还价。随着社会冲突的加剧,乡镇政府的讨价还价能力相对提高,使得双方的协议点从严格执行端向宽松执行端移动。执行无僵局、协议点左右摆动、短期均衡与讨价还价的交替发生是政策执行中上下级政府讨价还价的基本特征。     

The role of risk preferences in bargaining when acceptance of a proposal requires less than unanimous approval

The role of risk preferences in determining the outcome to bargaining is examined for the case in which acceptance of a proposal requires less than unanimous approval. Using an n-agent extension of the Ståhl-Rubinstein alternating offer model, we find that risk preferences play a fundamentally different role when bargaining is settled using a nonunanimity voting rule. Risk preferences determine not only an agent's reservation price but also the likelihood that he is made part of the winning coalition. An implication of this analysis is that when the preferences of the agents are not too diverse, it is advantageous for an agent to be relatively risk-averse.The helpful comments and suggestions of Rich McLean and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. This article was presented as a paper at the 1988 Winter Econometric Society Meetings.     

环境风险感知的影响因素和作用机理:基于核风险感知的混合方法分析

在质性研究和已有文献基础上,本文提出了影响公众环境风险感知的“双因素假说”,并对这一假说进行验证。通过“扎根理论”发现了影响公众环境风险感知的四个维度：环境亲和感、系统信任感、信息丰富性和利益趋向性。前两种属于情感因素,后两者属于情境因素。通过结构方程模型进一步证实,情感、情境因素都对公众环境风险感知具有显著影响。同时发现了信息丰富性与环境风险感知的倒“U”型关系,利益趋向性对公众的环境风险感知具有决定性影响等结果。     

Effects of Risk and Time Preference and Expected Longevity on Demand for Medical Tests

Despite their conceptual importance, the effects of time preference, expected longevity, uncertainty, and risk aversion on behavior have not been analyzed empirically. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to assess the role of risk and time preference, expected longevity, and education on demand for three measures used for early detection of breast and cervical cancer—regular breast self-exams, mammograms, and Pap smears. We find that individuals with a higher life expectancy and lower time preference are more likely to undergo cancer screening. Less risk averse individuals tend to be more likely to undergo testing.     

重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估中风险沟通机制的构建--基于北京市水价调整政策的案例分析

针对重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估（以下简称“稳评”）中利益相关方之间风险沟通不足的问题,引入IRGC的风险治理理念,建立重大公共政策稳评中风险沟通机制的分析框架,将风险沟通作为稳评工作的核心环节并贯穿于政策制定与实施的全过程。为了验证该分析框架的适用性,选取北京市水价调整政策为典型案例,对稳评过程中风险沟通机制的现实运作进行深入剖析和经验总结,并从注重评估工作与风险沟通的全程性、加强多元主体间的协商对话、充分发挥媒体作用等方面,就如何进一步推进和完善重大公共政策稳评机制展开探讨。     

Parenting Mediates the Effects of Income and Cumulative Risk on the Development of Effortful Control

This study tested the hypothesis that the effects of income and cumulative risk on the development of effortful control during preschool would be mediated by parenting. The study utilized a community sample of 306 children (36–40 months) representing the full range of family income, with 29 percent at or near poverty and 28 percent lower income. Two dimensions of effortful control (executive control and delay ability) were assessed at four time points, each separated by nine months, and growth trajectories were examined. Maternal warmth, negativity, limit setting, scaffolding, and responsiveness were observed. Above the effects of child cognitive ability, income, and cumulative risk, scaffolding predicted higher initial levels of executive control that remained higher across the study, and limit setting predicted greater gains in executive control. Parenting did not predict changes in delay ability. Significant indirect effects indicated that scaffolding mediated the effects of income and cumulative risk on growth in executive control. The findings suggest that parenting behaviors can promote effortful control in young children and could be targets of prevention programs in low‐income families.     

房地产投资风险控制初探

房地产投资应以风险管理为基础,要对房地产投资风险控制进行界定,房地产投资风险控制具有三个具体措施--风险回避、风险预防和风险抑制及其特点和适用性,其在房地产开发实践中应有具体应用.     

Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk

We evaluate the effects of disease type and latency on willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce environmental risks of chronic, degenerative disease. Using contingent-valuation data collected from approximately 1,200 respondents in Taiwan, we find that WTP declines with latency between exposure to environmental contaminants and manifestation of any resulting disease, at a 1.5 percent annual rate for a 20 year latency period. WTP to reduce the risk of cancer is estimated to be about one-third larger than WTP to reduce risk of a similar chronic, degenerative disease. The value of risk reduction also depends on the affected organ, environmental pathway, or payment mechanism: estimated WTP to reduce the risk of lung disease due to industrial air pollution is twice as large as WTP to reduce the risk of liver disease due to contaminated drinking water.     

The Value of a Statistical Life and the Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion

Individuals’ risk preferences are estimated and employed in a variety of settings, notably including choices in financial, labor, and product markets. Recent work, especially in financial economics, provides estimates of individuals’ coefficients of relative risk aversion (R’s) in excess of one, and often significantly higher. However, it can be shown that high R’s imply equally high values for the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life. Yet estimates of this elasticity, derived from labor and product markets, are in the range of 0.5 to 0.6. Furthermore, it turns out that even an R below one is difficult to reconcile with these elasticity estimates. Thus, there appears to be an important (additional) anomaly involving individuals’ risk-taking behavior in different market settings.JEL Classification: D80, G11, G12, I10, J17     

The logic of partial-risk aversion: Paradox lost

One rational individual may be willing to pay less than another to insure a risk % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWefv3ySLgznf% gDOfdaryqr1ngBPrginfgDObYtUvgaiuaacuWF1oG8gaacaaaa!41B4!\[\tilde \varepsilon \] when another risk % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabm4Dayaaia% aaaa!36F7!\[\tilde w\] is present even though he would pay more to insure any isolated risk, and even though % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyraiGacI% cadaabcaqaamrr1ngBPrwtHrhAXaqeguuDJXwAKbstHrhAG8KBLbac% faGaf8xTdiVbaGaaaiaawIa7aiqadEhagaacaiGacMcaciGG9aGaai% imaaaa!47F3!\[E(\left. {\tilde \varepsilon } \right|\tilde w) = 0\] for all w. Noticing this, Ross (1981) proposed excluding such reversals and gave equivalent analytical conditions. Reconsidering, we explain why some reversals are natural and show that prohibiting them has peculiar and undesirable properties. Although we also simplify the conditions and prove them necessary for partial-risk portfolio results, we conclude that they represent revealing restrictions on comparative statics rather than natural implications of increased aversion to risk.     

风险与预期：社会保障对中国居民消费与储蓄行为的影响

目前,中国经济继续处于快速增长阶段,但出现了总需求不足下的居民储蓄总量持续攀升的状况,高储蓄、低消费所造成的内需不足已经成为中国经济快速发展和良性运行的主要制约因素,而社会保障体系的不健全是老百姓不敢花钱的重要原因。本文分析了中国社会保障水平及社会保障制度对居民储蓄行为的影响,试图从社会保障角度来探讨扩大内部需求、刺激居民消费和增进国民福祉的关键。     

风险社会与国家治理现代化

我国目前正处于重大的社会转型期即风险社会之中。中国进入风险社会有四个主要标志：政府作为社会治理或公共治理的中心,其公信力在不断下降;中国出现了公共机构有组织的不负责任现象;＂理论的不在状态＂和＂现实的不在场＂;主体意识或个体意识的崛起。中国进入风险社会表现为四个基本的、深层次的社会结构性紧张：利益结构的紧张、制度结构的紧张、文化结构的紧张、价值结构的紧张。风险社会只是一个表象,根本原因是四大深层次的社会结构性矛盾没有解决。中国学术创新的关键就是要研究社会的结构性矛盾或结构性紧张,找出其形成的规律,从根本上消除阻碍社会主义发展和国家治理现代化的深层次根源。     

住房抵押贷款证券化收益和风险分析

我国推行住房抵押贷款证券化已是必然趋势。对住房抵押贷款证券获得的收益及其所面临的风险进行分析 ,有利于对风险予以防范和控制。