A Quantitative Release Assessment for the Noncommercial Movement of Companion Animals: Risk of Rabies Reintroduction to the United Kingdom

In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60‐fold, from 7.79 × 10^?5 (5.90 × 10^?5, 1.06 × 10^?4) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10^?3 (4.05 × 10^?3, 5.65 × 10^?3) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement.     

Quantitative risk assessment of rabies being introduced into mainland France through worldwide noncommercial dog and cat movements

France has been rabies-free among nonflying mammals since 2001. Despite this status, the rabies virus has been introduced several times through noncommercial pet movements, posing a threat of infection by this 100%-lethal zoonosis among local animal and human populations. To quantify the risk of rabies being introduced through worldwide noncommercial dog and cat movements, we performed a quantitative risk assessment using stochastic scenario tree modeling. The mean annual probability of at least one rabies introduction incident was 0.35 (median: 0.24, 90% prediction interval (PI) [0.04; 0.98]) and the mean annual number of rabies-infected pets introduced through pet movements was 0.96 (median: 0.27, 90% PI [0.04; 3.88]). These results highlight a nonnegligible, even high risk due to the associated consequences of such events. In alternative scenario testing, preventive anti-rabies vaccination proved to be an effective measure since removing the vaccination requirement led to a > 15-fold increase in risk. The serological testing requirement had less of an effect (approximately two-fold increase when removed) and the posttest waiting period to ensure that antibodies were not linked to an infection had a negligible effect. Any change in pet owner compliance, especially regarding vaccination, could have a major impact on the risk. This study also shows that reinforced border control staff training could be more effective in reducing risk than more frequent checks. These results provide quantitative data for assessing the probability of the rabies virus entering France, and could help policymakers decrease this risk in rabies-free areas.     

Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries

The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country–commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country–commodity combinations. Prediction ability of generalized linear mixed effects models was greater than that of generalized linear models. The estimated pest interception probability and confidence interval for each country–commodity combination was categorized into one of four compliance levels: “High,” “Medium,” “Low,” and “Poor/Unacceptable,” Using K‐means clustering analysis. This study presents risk‐based categorization for each country–commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest interceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment.     

UK International Joint Ventures with the Triad: Evidence for the 1990s

This paper identifies and analyses some basic trends and patterns in international joint venture activity between UK firms and partner firms located in the Triad (North America, Western Europe and Japan) over the 1990–96 period. Several dimensions of UK international joint venture activity are examined: trends over time, geographic distribution of foreign partners, industry characteristics, the purpose of the venture, the number of partners and the UK partners' equity shareholding. The study serves to update and extend previous analyses of UK international joint venture activity with partners from developed market economies.     

Entry and exit of makes in the automobile industry, 1895–1960: An international comparison

The historical patterns of the entry and exit of makes in the automobile industries of France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States are examined. The findings, covering over 3000 makes of passenger vehicle, show great similarities in these patterns, despite the substantial inter-country differences in market size, economic conditions and institutional arrangements. The results justify the conclusion that the evolution of basic technologies, as described in a number of theoretical and empirical studies, is the most important force in shaping the long-term development of industries and markets.     

A case study in venture management

This paper examines the venture concept as a means of stimulating new product development within large companies. The literature reveals a significant difference between the venture idea as originally conceived in North America and as applied in European companies. A case study of a UK venture experiment is then presented which clearly demonstrates the resistance to substantive change which may characterise large organisations.     

In search of American and British productivity and quality of organization

America and Britain have taken a long time to accept conceptually and pragmatically the post-war economic performance of Japan and other capitalist countries. Our understanding of how to improve our production infrastructure remains inadequate. This paper addresses the critical area of manufacturing organization and restructuring production operations to offer substantial and immediate results. Most of the resources required to become a world class manufacturer are already in place in the UK and the US, yet the organization of these resources remains lacking. The purpose of this paper is to review the importance of productivity and energy conversion within an integrated manufacturing strategy. Current differences in operations management thinking that exist between     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究

本文针对实现我国"十二五"期间减排目标的现实背景,构建了一个省际排放权交易模型,重点探讨了在实现各省减排目标的过程中,碳排放权交易机制发挥的成本节约效应。研究设置了无碳交易市场(NETS)、仅包含北京等六个碳交易试点省市的碳交易市场(PETS)和全国范围内实施碳排放权交易(CETS)三种政策情景。通过模型分析得到以下结论:(1)为实现"十二五"碳强度减排目标,扣除自然下降率,全国二氧化碳排放需要减少约6.39亿吨,占当年总碳排放的6.65%;无碳排放交易时全国需要付出约157.62亿元的减排成本,占当年GDP的0.04%;六省市参与碳交易情景下,全国总的减排成本约为150.66亿元,节约减排成本4.42%,碳交易量为0.22亿吨CO₂,占总减排量的3.39%,均衡碳价约为70.55元/吨CO₂;全国碳市场情景下,全国总的减排成本约为120.68亿元,相比于无碳排放交易情景节约减排成本23.44%,碳交易量为1.21亿吨CO₂,占总减排量的18.98%,均衡碳价约为38.17元/吨CO₂;(2)碳交易市场对参与交易的省份的成本节约效应各不相同,总的来看,东、西部地区成本节约较为明显,部分西部地区能够在完成自身减排目标前提下,通过加入碳交易市场而获取正的收益。     

Ford of Britain: A diminishing role in ford of Europe

In this paper, Michael McDermott highlights Ford of Britain and its changing role in Ford of Europe's operations. A review of the literature on foreign direct investment provides a framework for evaluating Ford Motor Company's current position and future strategy in Europe. This suggests that the company is in decline and in particular, that Ford of Britain has reached a stage where foreign divestment is likely: the Iberian peninsula is emerging as an attractive strategic alternative.The author concludes that, while the UK is losing its strategic importance as a market and a production base for Ford of Europe, any key decision to divest by the parent company is likely to involve lengthy analysis and therefore give time for public policy-makers to consider possible safeguards.     

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Evacuee Risk Perception Throughout the Evacuation and Return‐Entry Process

Developing effective evacuation and return‐entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return‐entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return‐entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return‐entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return‐entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return‐entry process.     

Determinants of voluntary assurance on sustainability reports: an empirical analysis

Driven by the ongoing discussion of corporate responsibility, growing numbers of companies have been publishing what have become known as sustainability reports. These reports have in part been subject to voluntary external assurance. Although the percentage of assured reports is significant, the market for this kind of assurance is still in an early stage of development. In this context the present article will ascertain the theoretical determining factors in the demand for voluntary external assurance and subject these in relation to the markets in Germany, the Netherlands and Great Britain to empirical analysis. In the context of the development of hypotheses shaped by agency theory, the constructs of agency costs and signalling can be distinguished. Variables measuring these constructs will be examined. It can be shown that the type and scope of the reporting (i.e., the choice of the Global Reporting Initiative ‘application level’), the existence of a sustainability department, and the size of the company are associated with the demand for voluntary assurance. Additional control variables are examined. Here it appears that the demand for external assurance is highest in Great Britain. Finally, research opportunities in this field will be indicated and recent normative developments briefly sketched.     

Advertising and the Dynamics of Market Structure: The UK Car Industry, 1958–1983*

This paper looks at the effect of advertising on market share dynamics, developing a model that describes the mechanism by which advertising affects consumer choice and illustrating it with reference to the UK car market. Advertising shares are observed to be highly positively correlated with market shares, suggesting that advertising has both pro- and anti-competitive effects. Advertising facilitates entry in as far as entrants can acquire market share through advertising, but it inhibits entry when an escalation in total industry advertising makes this acquisition prohibitively costly.     

Effects of an Advisory Brochure on Fish Consumption of Urban Anglers in the Great Lakes Region

Past research has suggested that urban anglers are a group at high risk of being exposed to contaminants from fish consumption. Fish consumption advisories have been used in many regions to encourage healthy fish‐eating behaviors, but few studies have been designed to assess whether these advisories actually influence behavior as intended. We conducted a large‐scale, randomized experiment to test the influence of an advisory brochure on urban anglers’ fish consumption. We collected detailed information on anglers’ fish consumption in three urban counties in the Great Lakes region in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We provided a treatment group with fish consumption guidelines in an advisory brochure before the summer of 2015 and compared their change in fish consumption to a control group. The brochure led to a reduction in fish consumption for anglers who ate the most fish; these anglers reduced their consumption of high‐contaminant purchased fish (by ≥0.2 meals/summer for those in 72nd percentile of fish consumption or above), high‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.4 meals/summer for those in 87th percentile and above), and low‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.3 meals/summer by those in 76th percentile and above). The brochure also reduced sport‐caught fish consumption among those anglers who exceeded the advisories in 2014 (by 2.0 meals/summer). In addition, the brochure led to small increases in sport‐caught fish consumption (0.4–0.6 meals/summer) in urban anglers who ate very little sport‐caught fish (≤1 meal/summer).     

Environmental Hazards in the Chinese Public's Eyes

The People's Republic of China suffers each year from various environmental hazards. Although risk perception study has a 40-year history in Europe and North America, little is known about risk perception in China. Previous studies of risk perception have primarily focused on unnatural hazards, but China has experinced many natural environmental hazards. Therefore, the Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazard risks must be considered in order to support the IDNDR program. The Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazards are similar to those of Europeans and North Americans, but different characteristics are observed.     

Environmental Hazards in the Chinese Public's Eyes

The People's Republic of China suffers each year from various environmental hazards. Although risk perception study has a 40-year history in Europe and North America, little is known about risk perception in China. Previous studies of risk perception have primarily focused on unnatural hazards, but China has experinced many natural environmental hazards. Therefore, the Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazard risks must be considered in order to support the IDNDR program. The Chinese public's perceptions of environmental hazards are similar to those of Europeans and North Americans, but different characteristics are observed.     

Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality

We propose a method to correct for sample selection in quantile regression models. Selection is modeled via the cumulative distribution function, or copula, of the percentile error in the outcome equation and the error in the participation decision. Copula parameters are estimated by minimizing a method‐of‐moments criterion. Given these parameter estimates, the percentile levels of the outcome are readjusted to correct for selection, and quantile parameters are estimated by minimizing a rotated “check” function. We apply the method to correct wage percentiles for selection into employment, using data for the UK for the period 1978–2000. We also extend the method to account for the presence of equilibrium effects when performing counterfactual exercises.     

Effective health care corporate compliance

The pace and intensity of oversight and investigation of health care organizations has greatly increased at all levels. Well run organizations with ethical management committed to following all laws and regulations are still at risk for compliance violations and punitive penalties. Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines, organizations with an "effective" corporate compliance program may receive reduced penalties. The seven components of an effective program as defined in the guidelines are: (1) Standards and procedures; (2) oversight responsibilities; (3) employee training; (4) monitoring and auditing; (5) reporting systems; (6) enforcement and discipline; and (7) response and prevention. Lack of a compliance program needlessly exposes the organization to an avoidable risk of damage from non-compliance--whether intentional or not. Moreover, an effective program can contribute to the efficient operation of the organization and be a key piece of its corporate culture.     

Statistical Evaluation of the New Zealand Food Safety Authority Sampling Protocol for Imported Food

The New Zealand Food Safety Authority sampling protocol for compliance inspection of imported food products is evaluated for its ability to provide consumer protection. The sampling protocol involves both partial testing of imported consignments and complete skipping inspection of consignments based on the quality history. The risk posed by the strategies of partial testing and skipping inspection of imports is evaluated using the average outgoing quality limit and other performance measures. The cost dimension of sampling inspection is also considered. Suggestions for improvement, which include tightening the skipping inspection parameters, are made.     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.