Demographic Transition

Some forecasts based on possible trends in population in Russia suggest that it may be possible to achieve stabilization of the population. However, the actual demographic situation and the conditions in Russian society raise doubt about this, and about the possibility of sustaining and enhancing the quality of an aging and declining population. Russia's future and the possibilities for successful modernization of the economy and its transition to an innovative path of development depend on the quality and structure of the population.     

台湾社会政治文化结构变迁及其冲突性特征

20世纪以来,台湾社会政治文化经历了结构性的变迁,其中国传统政治文化与台湾本土政治文化的关系结构发生了转变。这种政治文化结构的改变是伴随政治转型的发生而完成的。政治转型初期政党竞争的方式及其对社会的政治宣传,将长期以来形成的政党之间的敌视心态与对抗方式传递给社会,使台湾社会出现"争议政治",凸显其冲突性政治文化的特征。冲突性政治文化的加剧最终势必摧毁台湾的政治发展,故政治文化的改造问题须提上议事日程。     

From Successful Family Planning to the Lowest of Low Fertility Levels: Taiwan's Dilemma

Since the implementation of family planning in the 1960s, Taiwan's fertility rate has rapidly decreased. This was praised as a family planning achievement. However, in the 21st century Taiwan has become one of the lowest of low fertility countries like European countries [ Kohler, H. P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002) . Population and Development Review , 28 (4), 641–80]. The government has begun to worry that these extremely low birthrates will result in rapid population aging and bring about other negative socio-economic effects. Thus, in its Mega Warmth Social Welfare Program (MWSWP) of 2006, the Taiwanese government targeted the issue of low birthrates. Based on secondary data analysis, we found that the reasons for rapid decrease in Taiwanese birthrates are: (i) a declining marriage rate; (ii) later marriage; (iii) changing attitudes towards child bearing; (iv) the burdens of child care; and (v) an increase in female labour participation rates. The MWSWP includes maternity leave benefits, parental leave benefits, a childcare subsidy system and early children education and care (ECEC). First, this article presents a chronological understanding of the demography in Taiwan. Second, we attempt to evaluate the reasons contributing to the low birthrates. The policy response to this is discussed next. Finally, the article provides a careful conclusion: that the extent to which these policies can significantly stop the population from declining requires further observation.     

日本帝国主义殖民统治下的台湾地区阶级分析

本文利用台湾“中央研究院”的“历史人口计划”所提供的日据时期户籍数据库,运用新韦伯派阶级分类法,分析不同出生世代的阶级结构,并以多元逻辑回归统计模型估计其阶级流动的几率。研究发现,无论在农业部门还是工业部门,越晚出生的世代(尤其是1895年后的出生者)无产阶级化的趋势越明显,而且糖业资本集中发展的中南部地区比北部地区更明显;其次,工业部门的本土雇主与自雇者大幅减少,显示日本垄断资本对台湾地区本土资本的竞争优势导致台湾地区工商业部门的无产化;第三,农业部门人口比例衰退的趋势在20世纪20年代之后逐渐稳定下来,这可能是“米糖相克”与家户生计逻辑造成的结果;第四,一方面受“农业台湾”的日本殖民政策限制,另一方面受家庭生计逻辑的影响,台湾地区的专业管理阶级或资本家在子女分户时仍经常划分农地给后嗣,因此出现了工业部门人口回流农业部门的向下流动的特殊现象,但已经靠农业就业的人口却难以流向工业部门。本文的贡献在于重建历史资料来研究日据时期台湾地区的阶级流动,并呈现工业国家之外殖民地社会的阶级不平等。     

Surviving social support: Care challenges facing Taiwanese centenarians

In Taiwan, centenarians are the fastest growing demographic among the 65+ population. However, the general population knows little about the country's oldest citizens. There is an urgent need for research to focus on the ‘super old’ community in order to allocate sufficient public and private resources towards their care. This study explored the living conditions of Taiwanese centenarians as well as their care and support systems through a quantitative questionnaire and in‐depth interviews with the centenarians or their caregivers. The total sample size of the study was 100. Sample characteristics regarding age, gender, living arrangement, physical and mental health status, daily functioning and overall life satisfaction are presented. It was found that a much higher percentage of Taiwanese centenarians lived with family members in their own homes, while their counterparts in Western societies were institutionalised. This study also identifies the concept of symbiotic care grounded in a family network.     

Generalized Population Aging in China: A National-Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

The age structure of the Chinese population is entering a process of generalized aging in which the major age groupings will see a fall in the ratio of younger age groups and a rise in the ratio of older age groups, with varying levels of socioeconomic significance for the entire population system. The implementation of the unconditional two-child policy (quanmian erhai zhengce) has not changed this general trend. The early stage of population aging (2011-2060) is one of the high-speed development of generalized aging with multiple growth peaks and fluctuations in the size, growth rate and internal structure of the major age groupings. From the perspective of generalized population aging, China’s future contains four major systemic demographic dividends and faces four major systemic demographic risks. The early stage of aging is the most important period for the transformation of the population age structure. If society can adjust to the aging trend and the phased nature of the development of this trend, it will be able to seize the initiative in long-term development.     

Ecological factors associated with elder abuse in Taiwan: a systematic review

Elder abuse is a serious issue in Taiwan because of rapid growth among the aging population and the deterioration of traditional values. Understanding of elder abuse in Taiwan has been fragmented, as a bulk of studies have primarily focused on socio-demographic characteristics and past childhood abuse. Only a handful of studies have focused on the environmental contexts. To address this research gap, we systematically review the prevalence, socio-demographic characteristics, and risk factors associated with elder abuse in Taiwan by applying Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework. Twenty-nine research articles are reviewed to address this research gap. Practice and policy implications are also discussed.     

Long-run macroeconomic consequences of Taiwan's aging labor force: an analysis of policy options

Taiwan is poised to become a super-aged society. We found there exist long-run relationships involving key macroeconomic variables and population age shares. The findings indicate that Taiwan's aggregate production exhibits increasing returns to scale where the quality of labor input is the single most important source of growth. The out-of-sample forecast plots envisage that Taiwan's aging labor force does not necessarily decelerate real GDP growth for at least a decade or more. In particular, there are viable policy measures to curb labor shortages due to the shift in the age structure of the labor force caused by population aging.     

Long-term Care in China: Issues and Prospects

One of the major socioeconomic challenges China faces is the rapid aging of its population. China is now an aging society, even though it is still regarded as a middle-income economy. Coupled with the market-driven reform of social services and rapid erosion of family support, the provision of affordable and accessible social care services to older people has already become an urgent issue for the government to address. Looking into the future, the formulation of a sustainable position on long-term care (LTC) will increasingly become the major focus of social policy. This article sets out the background to the demographic shifts resulting in the emerging need for LTC in China. It analyzes the issues facing LTC services and reviews their prospects, including the structure, operation, financing, and interfacing of residential and community-based home care services.     

中日韩老年人互动方案研究

人口老龄化究竟是挑战还是机遇，关键在于如何充分利用老年人力资源，推动老有所为，实现积极老龄化。参与社会，扩大交流是中日韩三国老年人的共同要求。要充分认识到当前中日韩民间交流中的老年人的作用，切实推进老年人的文化交流与民间往来。中日韩三国积极老龄化的成功经验和有效做法具有相互学习和借鉴的价值，三国在应对人口老龄化领域有着广阔的合作空间和前景。中日韩三国应长期、积极地开展交流与合作。     

The production and reproduction of Chinese and Taiwanese identities in Taiwan’s popular songs

This article charts the impact of Chinese and Taiwanese identities on popular songs in Taiwan in three major historical periods: the Japanese colonization between 1895 and 1945; the Kuomintang (KMT) rule between 1945 and 1987; and the cultivation of Taiwanese identity since the 1980s. By exploring the historical processes of nation-building on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, this article demonstrates how socio-political transformations have produced, reproduced and mediated both Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity, and the role of popular songs in that process. It shows how, since 1895, the themes of popular songs have developed through processes of ‘de-Japanizing’ to ‘de-Sinolizing’ to ‘Taiwanizing’. The political and cultural forces which have affected both Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese identities are evident in the changing market for Taiwan’s popular songs. At a period when questions of political and cultural identity are still hotly debated in Taiwan, popular songs now seek to integrate its multiple identities.     

"文明祭扫"新风尚在鄱阳悄然兴起

又是一年清明节,细心的人们不难发现,在江西省鄱阳县,一种新的祭奠方式正在这里悄然兴起.家住南昌的鄱阳人陈阿姨4月1日一大早就手捧菊花到墓园祭扫.陈阿姨说,往年她是带着纸钱来公墓祭扫的.她看见周围的人都用鲜花或是绢花进行祭扫,觉得用花代替纸钱的方式既环保又安全,而且故去的母亲也喜欢花,于是今年她也在街上买了一束绢花.     

日本新海洋安全战略中的对台政策

作为地理特征上的典型海洋国家,海洋安全战略是日本国家战略的重要组成部分,也是其对台政策的主要内在动力与依据.新世纪日本的海洋安全战略发生了不同于以往的显著变化,为实现最大限度拓展海洋安全空间的战略目标,遏制主要战略对手中国走向海洋,日本的对台战略表现为阻挠两岸以任何方式统一,同时力图控制台湾.反映在对台政策上就是积极谋求武力介入台海问题、加强日台安全关系、强化对台经济控制和社会文化渗透.对此,我们要从战略高度做好应对.     

论社会工作在老年思想政治教育中的应用

随着我国人口老龄化的发展,老年人群体的思想政治教育是政府和社会面临的现实课题。传统老年思想政治教育的管理取向和社会本位,使其难以有效回应社会发展与老年人发展的双重诉求。借鉴和吸纳社会工作的理念和方法,是创新老年思想政治教育的现实路径。     

中国社会养老的文化分析

本文关注福利文化对社会养老制度和实践的影响,从文化视角审视中国现代社会养老项目的发展,揭示了老年社会福利模式与特定社会政策制定者对社会福利概念的理解和传统福利文化之间的关系。限定主义的价值观和公民权利意识的缺失阻碍着中国老年社会福利模式从剩余性到制度性的转变,抑制了社会福利在缩小老年群体内阶层差异方面的作用,促使了福利资源分配的不公。尽管人口老龄化和福利国家的文化扩散正在促使中国老年社会福利呈多元化发展趋势,多元福利体系的最终建立还有赖于社会公众和政策制定者对个人和国家关系的重新解读。     

论养老机构中社会工作的介入——基于南通市养老机构的实证调查

随着我国人口老龄化趋势的日益加剧,养老问题逐渐成为一大社会问题,而且影响着经济社会的持续快速发展。但在当前形势下,居家养老模式已经受到现代社会发展的严重冲击和挑战,社区养老模式才刚刚起步,各种机制设施还有待进一步健全、完善。在新旧模式的转换过渡中,机构养老便成为解决养老问题的重要力量。本文通过对南通市养老机构的实证调查,发现了南通市机构养老存在的一些问题,提出了在养老机构中介入社会工作的设想。     

应对人口老龄化挑战的中国道路

老年人口的养老负担问题、代际关系问题以及价值实现问题是影响中国未来可持续发展的三个关键性问题。从经济学视角看,就是生之者寡和食之者众的关系问题;从社会学角度看,有一个资源和权力分配的代际冲突和老年价值实现问题;从人口学视角看,计划生育弱势老人的比例在上升,今后中国会出现大量的“计划生育老人”,提出“计生老人”概念的意义在于,国家各级政府和部门要凸显人口计生公共服务的公益性和福利性。中国作为一个先老后富的国家,人口老龄化带来的挑战是长期的、多样的。本文提出了成功老龄化的战略构想,包括健康老龄化、积极老龄化、和谐老龄化和幸福老龄化。在应对人口老龄化和老龄问题挑战的过程中,中国社会逐渐走出了一条传统与现代相结合的中国道路,概括说：就是以家庭养老、单位（集体）养老和自我养老为基础,以社区助老、福利助老、慈善助老为补充的中国道路。最后,本文作者对本专题几位学者的观点在“中国问题和中国选择”的框架内进行了综合性的介绍和评论。     

我国社区居家养老的现状、问题与对策探析

我国已步入老龄化社会,目前全国的养老方式主要有家庭养老、机构养老、社区居家养老三种方式。社区居家养老是介于家庭照顾和社会机构照顾之间的一种运用社区资源开展的老人照顾方式,能有效弥补家庭养老和机构养老的不足。文章主要从社区居家养老的内容、各种养老模式的特点与社区居家养老的优势与不足等几个方面对国内的社区居家养老模式进行分析、总结,并提出基于社区的养老网络构建的政策建议。     

世界历史的“双重结构”与当代中国的全球发展路径

马克思主义世界历史观为“全球化”这一术语不被滥用提供了学理依据。“全球化”这一很不规范的普遍流行的术语所涵盖的许多事实,都是对“历史向世界历史的转变”的一种认定,但它并不能引导人们去认识这一转变过程中所出现的世界历史的结构性变化。在“历史向世界历史的转变”过程中,相继形成了“国际社会”和“全球社会”,从而构成了世界历史的“双重结构”。这两者在其主体结构、利益结构、发展目标和原则、发展特点、格局结构等方面是有所不同的,但又是互相联系、相互渗透的。基于对“全球化”的“世界历史”批判,以及对当代世界历史发展的状态和趋势的科学分析,由此提出的世界历史“双重结构”理论,既是把马克思主义世界历史观全面地运用于全球化及其发展研究的重要切入点,也是马克思主义世界历史观在当代发展的重要切入点,同时也将会为我们正确探索当代社会主义中国在全球中的发展路径提供重要的方法论支撑。     

The Diversification of Children’s Support for Their Parents in the Context of an Aging Society: Concepts and Behavior*

China’s aging society and the family-based model of basic aged care determine that children’s support for their parents directly affects the standard of living of the majority of the aging population. Existing theories indicate that in this era of social transition, the implications of filial piety have shifted from the traditional emphasis on the parent-child generational relationship and children’s duty to obey their parents to a dual mode in which family love coexists with the authority of the elders. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey of 2006, we explore the ways in which the two basic dimensions of authoritarian filial piety and reciprocal filial piety connect with various types of filial behavior. The results of our multivariate linear model show that on average, authoritarian filial piety, which emphasizes authority relationships and children’s duty, increases children’s financial support for their parents, while reciprocal filial piety, stressing family love and generational equality, significantly increases children’s emotional support for their parents. A comparison of the basic dimensions of filial piety shows that neither significantly increases children’s physical support for their parents. Further analysis of the interaction effect indicates that the link between authoritarian filial piety and financial support is more significant among younger groups. In addition, for males, a marginally significant positive relation exists between authoritarian filial piety and physical support for their parents.