A Capture–Recapture Approach to Estimation of Refugee Populations

The debate over immigration continues to be one of the most politically charged policy issues in the United States (US). Given the charged nature of this topic, it is vitally important to have reliable data on not only the number of US foreign nationals but also the characteristics of this extremely heterogeneous group – a population comprised not only of immigrants but also of refugees. There exist a small number of data sources for informing policy and practice at the national level. However, such data are often lacking for smaller geographical areas. This paper describes a recent effort to generate serviceable data on the immigrant and refugee population for a medium‐sized metropolitan area in the US. The objectives of this research were twofold. Our first goal was to provide local stakeholders with information to assist them with resettling and obtaining funding for immigrants and refugees. The second aim was to develop better techniques for tabulating diverse refugees and immigrants in a medium‐sized community. By comparing and contrasting three data sources – that is, refugee services, public schools and a local health plan – we are able to generate estimates of the local refugee and immigrant population. During the period from 2005 to 2007, we estimate the total number of immigrants and refugees in the community to be somewhere between 10,938 and 13,282. Although perhaps a bit on the high end due to methodological assumptions, these estimates seem plausible, based on previously cited figures for the region. While such estimates are valuable, a number of shortcomings related to the data prevent us from painting a more complete picture of these populations. We conclude this paper with a number of recommendations that will assist others in planning research designed to inform migration policy and practice in medium‐sized metropolitan areas.     

International Terrorism and the World‐System

Theories of international terrorism are reviewed. It then is noted that waves of terrorism appear in semiperipheral zones of the world‐system during pulsations of globalization when the dominant state is in decline. Finally, how these and other factors might combine to suggest a model of terrorism's role in the cyclical undulations of the world‐system is suggested .     

A Methodological Comparison of Age‐Period‐Cohort Models: The Intrinsic Estimator and Conventional Generalized Linear Models

Age‐period‐cohort (APC) accounting models have long been objects of attention in statistical studies of human populations. It is well known that the identification problem created by the linear dependency of age, period, and cohort (Period = Age + Cohort or P = A + C) presents a major methodological challenge to APC analysis, a problem that has been widely addressed in demography, epidemiology, and statistics. This paper compares parameter estimates and model fit statistics produced by two solutions to the identification problem in age‐period‐cohort models—namely, the conventional demographic approach of constrained generalized linear models (Fienberg and Mason 1978, 1985; Mason and Smith 1985) and the intrinsic estimator method recently developed by Fu (2000; Knight and Fu 2000; Fu, Hall, and Rohan 2004). We report empirical analyses of applications of these two methods to population data on U.S. female mortality rates. Comparisons of parameter estimates suggest that both constrained generalized linear models and the intrinsic estimator method can yield similar estimates of age, period, and cohort effects, but estimates obtained by the intrinsic estimator are more direct and do not require prior information to select appropriate model identifying constraints. We also describe three statistical properties of the estimators: (1) finite‐time‐period bias, (2) relative statistical efficiency, and (3) consistency as the number of periods of observed data increases. These empirical analyses and theoretical results suggest that the intrinsic estimator may well provide a useful alternative to conventional methods for the APC analysis of demographic rates .     

Rapport‐building activities in corner shop interactions

This paper examines a range of interactional activities participants carry out in the course of corner shop transactions in Quito, Ecuador. These activities include: phatic communication exchanges as traditionally conceived, that is, conventionalized forms such as how‐are‐you and health inquiries; individualized exchanges in the form of conversational work around a range of topics (e.g. politics, health, school); and creative language play activities (e.g. wordplay and linguistic play with names). These activities are described as reflecting participants' orientation to the maintenance of positive rapport or friendly relations ( Aston 1988a ) with the effect that the service transaction becomes a pleasant and even an entertaining encounter. Such orientation is described here in relation to the familiarity existing between shopkeepers and customers as a result of frequent contact in the context of the barrio (residential neighbourhoods) in Quito. As such the study lends support, from a different socio‐cultural perspective, to recent work in the area that highlights the centrality of phatic communication in task‐oriented interactions in English (cf. Coupland 2000a , 2000b , 2003 ), and brings to the fore a wider range of activities which appear to be employed for rapport‐building purposes in service encounters.     

Adjusting for Time‐Varying Confounding in Survival Analysis

In this paper we illustrate how directly including endogenous time‐varying confounders in the model of the effect of an exposure on a response can lead to bias in discrete time survival analysis. An alternative to this method is Hernán, Brumback, and Robins'(1999) use of sample weights to adjust for endogenous time‐varying confounding. We discuss when this method can be used to provide unbiased estimators, and we illustrate the method by addressing a substantive research question using existing survey data. We also critically examine the robustness of the weighting method to violations of the underlying assumptions via a simulation analysis.     

Globalisation, the nation‐state and global society

This article examines the notion that globalisation has resulted in the decline of the nation‐state. It argues that during most of its history globalisation was in fact associated with the rise of the nation‐state through the construction of overseas empires that extended and strengthened it. The development of global political organization has reinforced the nation‐state through the growth of international organizations based on the principle of national sovereignty. It is transnational flows, networks, and organizations that have challenged the authority of the nation‐state. These do not, however, float in a global limbo but are always rooted in and dependent upon some nation‐state or other. Transnational movements can embarrass nation‐states but have little real impact upon them and challenge them far less than did the nationally based labour movements that have been undermined by globalisation. Some see globalisation as leading to a global society transcending national units but this view overlooks the continued importance of national institutions and international relationships, and the emergence of strong regional organizations, in a society that is essentially multi‐level rather than global in character.     

Problems with the 'language‐as‐resource' discourse in the promotion of heritage languages in the U.S.A.

In the United States, language 'rights' have been tethered to ethnic or racial entitlements as a means to redress historical patterns of discrimination and exclusion. The perception that language 'rights' are about the redress of past wrongs has had negative effects on efforts to gain broad public support for the teaching and maintenance of languages other than English. The language‐as‐resource orientation ( Ruiz 1984 ) is considered as an alternative to a language rights approach. However, analysis of texts produced by advocates of the heritage language movement reveals the shortcomings of the language‐as‐resource metaphor in advancing broad‐based support for the teaching, maintenance, and use of minority languages in the U.S. While efforts to promote heritage language education as a national strategic priority may result in short‐term governmental support, wider and more sustained popular support for such programs will require significant modifications in the underlying values and ideologies about the status and role of languages other than English in education and public life.     

Dilemmas in planning English/vernacular relations in post‐colonial communities

In the context of globalization and post‐modern discourses, the debate about the relative status of local and dominant languages poses serious policy problems for post‐colonial communities. Critics of minority language rights (MLR) generally point out that engineering a language shift on behalf of a vernacular language – motivated by the preservationist interests, collective rights and sentimental associations of an ethnic group – is futile, as the economic and social mobilities of individuals are bound to work against this enterprise. Proponents of MLR have gone to the other extreme of essentializing the linguistic identity of minority communities, generalizing their language attitudes, and treating local language rights as non‐negotiable. This article addresses this debate in the context of the attempts to promote Tamil by the military leadership in the North and East of Sri Lanka. The paper brings together data gathered in sociolinguistic studies for four years in the Jaffna society in order to understand the reception of the language policy in everyday life. The leadership recognizes that language policy is a symbolic statement for political purposes and tolerates certain inconsistencies in policy and practice. While the community assures itself of ethnic pride and linguistic autonomy with the stated policies, it negotiates divergent interests in the gaps between the policy/practice divide. Scholars should recognize the agency of subaltern communities to negotiate language politics in creative and critical ways that transcend the limited constructs formulated to either cynically sweep aside or unduly romanticize language rights.     

Self‐presentation in sociolinguistic interviews: Identities and language variation in Panambi, Brazil

This paper contributes to recent work examining the role of identity, and in particular the uses of language for self‐presentation and the expression of individual identity, through the analysis of two sociolinguistic interviews from a community of German origin in southern Brazil. Drawing from a quantitative study of variation in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, we conducted a detailed analysis of the interviews of two women of different ages and social backgrounds. We first describe the social, cultural and historical context of the interviews, and then discuss how our two speakers use their linguistic resources to express varied, and at times conflicting, aspects of their identities. More specifically, we show how our participants seem to maintain certain in‐group, German‐linked features, yet also use out‐group or Brazilian features in order to index both the (local) German and (regional) Brazilian aspects of their identities. Our data and analysis highlight how participants' identity and language use patterns can be better understood through close analysis of the content of their discourse.     

Theory‐Testing, Generalization, and the Problem of External Validity

External validity refers to the generalization of research findings, either from a sample to a larger population or to settings and populations other than those studied. While definitions vary, discussions generally agree that experiments are lower in external validity than other methodological approaches. Further, external validity is widely treated as an issue to be addressed through methodological procedures. When testing theories, all measures are indirect indicators of theoretical constructs, and no methodological procedures taken alone can produce external validity. External validity can be assessed through determining (1) the extent to which empirical measures accurately reflect theoretical constructs, (2) whether the research setting conforms to the scope of the theory under test, (3) our confidence that findings will repeat under identical conditions, (4) whether findings support the theory being tested, and (5) the confirmatory status of the theory under test. In these ways, external validity is foremost a theoretical issue and can only be addressed by an examination of the interplay between theory and methods.     

Improving Gambling Survey Research Using Dual-Frame Sampling of Landline and Mobile Phone Numbers

Gambling prevalence studies are typically conducted within a single (landline) telephone sampling frame. This practice continues, despite emerging evidence that significant differences exist between landline and mobile (cell) phone only households. This study utilised a dual-frame (landline and mobile) telephone sampling methodology to cast light on the extent of differences across groups of respondents in respect to demographic, health, and gambling characteristics. A total of 2,014 participants from across Australian states and territories ranging in age from 18 to 96 years participated. Interviews were conducted using computer assisted telephone interviewing technology where 1,012 respondents from the landline sampling frame and 1,002 from the mobile phone sampling frame completed a questionnaire about gambling and other health behaviours. Responses across the landline sampling frame, the mobile phone sampling frame, and the subset of the mobile phone sampling frame that possessed a mobile phone only (MPO) were contrasted. The findings revealed that although respondents in the landline sample (62.7 %) did not significantly differ from respondents in the mobile phone sample (59.2 %) in gambling participation in the previous 12 months, they were significantly more likely to have gambled in the previous 12 months than the MPO sample (56.4 %). There were no significant differences in internet gambling participation over the previous 12 months in the landline sample (4.7 %), mobile phone sample (4.7 %) and the MPO sample (5.0 %). However, endorsement of lifetime problem gambling on the NODS-CLiP was significantly higher within the mobile sample (10.7 %) and the MPO sample (14.8 %) than the landline sample (6.6 %). Our research supports previous findings that reliance on a traditional landline telephone sampling approach effectively excludes distinct subgroups of the population from being represented in research findings. Consequently, we suggest that research best practice necessitates the use of a dual-frame sampling methodology. Despite inherent logistical and cost issues, this approach needs to become the norm in gambling survey research.     

‘Hidden identities’: perceptions of sexual identity in Beijing

This article draws upon responses given by volunteers who work in the Beijing LGBT Centre regarding perceptions of sexual identity, and how Chinese culture affects hidden or open sexual identities of Chinese lesbian and gay people in this region. The insights gained from those working carefully to create social change offers an important and original contribution to the field of gay and lesbian studies in China. The findings indicate the volunteers at the Beijing LGBT Centre are frustrated by the lack of acceptance of non‐heterosexual relationships among Chinese culture and society, and by the disregard of lesbian gay and bisexual (LGB) people by the Chinese government. The findings also illustrate stigmatization of homosexuality in China is enacted in structural terms (such as in the lack of policy, legislation and positive endorsement by governmental and socio‐political organizations), public expression (such as negative attitudes, beliefs or reactions towards LGB people) and internalized repression (through fear of stigmatization, and subsequent abuse due to negative societal attitudes and discrimination). Influenced by the Chinese tradition of conforming to group values, the findings from this study show that volunteers at the Beijing LGBT Centre believe LGB people in China are generally hesitant to disclose their sexual identities, and reject the idea that there had been a collective shift in Chinese culture regarding increased acceptance of LGB people. It also finds volunteers at the LGBT Centre in Beijing blame Chinese culture for its lack of acceptance of non‐heterosexual relationships, and state stigmatization of homosexuality in China is due to deep‐rooted cultural homophobia.     

Black‐White Wage Inequality in the 1990s: a Decade of Progress

Using Current Population Survey data, we find that the gap between the wages of black and white males declined during the 1990s at a rate of about.60 percentage point per year. Wage convergence was most rapid among workers with less than 10 years of potential experience, with declines in the gap averaging 1.40 percentage points per year. Using standard decomposition methods, we find that greater occupational diversity and reductions in unobserved or residual differences are important in explaining this trend. General wage inequality tempered the rate of wage convergence between blacks and whites during the 1990s.     

Uncovering a Hidden “I” in Contemporary Urban Ethnography

Considerations of the self in ethnography have taken on various forms, including reportage of how the researcher gained access to a field site as well as achieved rapport with those who were the focus of study. I contend here that there exists a less well‐recognized form of selfhood in ethnography that pertains to the moral self of the ethnographer. This self reflects the sociopolitical or aesthetic orientation taken by the ethnographer of the problem that has framed the research endeavor resulting in the ethnographic product. Through assessments of the work of some ethnographers, including myself, who study people in social categories in which the ethnographer holds membership, this essay explores that dimension of the ethnographer's moral self.     

"What Group?" Studying Whites and Whiteness in the Era of "Color‐Blindness"

In this article I argue that despite the claims of some, all whites in racialized societies "have race." But because of the current context of race in our society, I argue that scholars of "whiteness" face several difficult theoretical and methodological challenges. First is the problem of how to avoid essentializing race when talking about whites as a social collective. That is, scholars must contend with the challenge of how to write about what is shared by those racialized as white without implying that their experiences of racialization all will be the same. Second, within the current context of color‐blind racial discourse, researchers must confront the reality that some whites claim not to experience their whiteness at all. Third, studies of whiteness must not be conducted in a vacuum: racial discourse or "culture" cannot be separated from material realities. Only by attending to and by recognizing these challenges will empirical research on whiteness be able to push the boundaries of our understandings about the role of whites as racial actors and thereby also contribute to our understanding of how race works more generally .     

Relocating Civil Society in a Politics of Civic‐Driven Change

Politics is central to development discourse, yet remains peripheral. Over some twenty years, a civil‐society narrative has not fulfilled its potential to ‘bring politics back in’. Reasons can be found in conceptual confusion, in selectivity in donor thinking, in policies towards civil society and in the growth‐driven political economy of NGO‐ism. Remedies for the political lacunae are being sought through a focus on rights, citizenship and leadership that show valuable focused progress. This article examines a comprehensive complement to such efforts referred to as civic‐driven change (CDC). Originating in a grounded empirical approach, the constituent principles and elements of CDC offer a lens that can both sharpen and deepen insights and advance analysis of socio‐political processes.     

Sampling and estimation in large social networks

An unknown network is modelled by a directed or undirected graph having vertices of different kinds. Partial information is available concerning the vertex labels and the edge occurrences within a simple random sample of vertices. Using this information we find unbiased estimators and variance estimators of such graph parameters which can be given as dyad or triad counts. In particular, we give approximate formulae pertaining to large networks.