统计工程与21世纪统计教育的思考

21世纪是世界各国进行高科技战略决战的世纪。信息技术是核心,统计技术的工程化将给21世纪的科技发展提供技术高科技。20世纪中期,6-δ的统计管理技术将日本带入了经济发达大国。21世纪初,中国能否应用统计工程技术也能进入世界发达国家的行列?文章旨在统计工程化的技术分析中为统计知识体系创新提出了个人的理解,并对统计工程与未来科技发展的关系,特别是21世纪的统计教育提出了新的见解。     

The prehistory of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences,with a prequel and epilogue

While it may appear to be a recent addition to the statistical scene, the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) at the University of Washington follows in a grand statistical tradition going back at least two centuries. In this article I describe some of the history on which it draws, emphasizing those who contributed to the interface during the twentieth century and especially the precursors to CSSS at the University of Washington. I also mention in passing some of my personal links to research carried out in CSSS after its founding.     

Will the ASA's Efforts to Improve Statistical Practice be Successful? Some Evidence to the Contrary

ABSTRACT

Recent efforts by the American Statistical Association to improve statistical practice, especially in countering the misuse and abuse of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and p-values, are to be welcomed. But will they be successful? The present study offers compelling evidence that this will be an extraordinarily difficult task. Dramatic citation-count data on 25 articles and books severely critical of NHST's negative impact on good science, underlining that this issue was/is well known, did nothing to stem its usage over the period 1960–2007. On the contrary, employment of NHST increased during this time. To be successful in this endeavor, as well as restoring the relevance of the statistics profession to the scientific community in the 21st century, the ASA must be prepared to dispense detailed advice. This includes specifying those situations, if they can be identified, in which the p-value plays a clearly valuable role in data analysis and interpretation. The ASA might also consider a statement that recommends abandoning the use of p-values.     

Letters to the Editor

Quantitative graphics have been central to the development of science, and statistical graphics date from the earliest attempts to analyze data. Many familiar forms, including bivariate plots, statistical maps, bar charts, and coordinate paper, were used in the 18th century. Statistical graphics developed through attention to four problems: spatial organization (17th and 18th centuries), discrete comparison (18th and early 19th centuries), continuous distribution (19th century), and multivariate distribution and correlation (late 19th and early 20th centuries). Today, statistical graphics appear to be reemerging as an important analytic tool, with recent innovations exploiting computer graphics and related technologies.     

我国授予经济学学位的统计学专业本科教育发展的历史回顾与展望

我国统计学本科教育经过半个多世纪的发展,为我国经济建设和社会发展做出了历史性的贡献。在我国已经形成了专科、本科、硕士、博士层次齐全的统计高等教育体系。在本科教育由精英教育开始向大众教育转变的历史背景下,统计专业本科教育该怎样适应这一转变就成为统计教育界面临的重要方向性问题。文章通过对我国统计教育发展的历史脉络的梳理,提出了当前统计本科教育存在的六个问题,并针对性地提出了六点建议,特别是对于统计专业本科人才创新能力和解决实际问题能力培养的建议对于统计本科教育在新形势下的改革和发展具有重要的参考价值。     

江西流动人口规模的统计预测与分析

据有关数据显示,江西省目前有300多万的流动人口规模,随着经济的发展,江西省的流动人口将趋于增长。文章利用统计预测方法,从三种不同的角度预测了江西省从2005~2050年的流动人口规模,并对如何加强其管理进行了探讨。     

Statistics development: statistical methods meeting the user’s needs

Statistical methods have the potential of being effectively used by industrial practitioners if they satisfied two criteria: functionality and usability. Statistical methods are usually the product of statistical research activities of universities and other research organizations. Some already satisfy these criteria; however, many do not. The effect is that potentially relevant methods are not used in practice as often as they could be. In this paper we will present an approach regarding ‘statistics development,’ in which the end-user is given a central position, so that the results from statistical research aim to meet the needs and requirements of the practitioner. Examples of known and new methods will be presented, and we will discuss issues such as education in statistics, the link with statistical consultancy and publication of methods through various channels.     

A GENEALOGY OF CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS

Over the past half a century correspondence analysis has grown from a little known statistical technique designed to graphically depict the association structure of categorical variables that form a contingency table to a very popular tool used in a wide variety of disciplines. Despite this growth, correspondence analysis remains relatively unknown in some parts of the world, including the Australasian statistical community. This paper provides a non‐technical, bibliographic exploration of correspondence analysis. We take a step back to view the development of this statistical technique and provide a brief account of its genealogy with a selection of over 270 key publications that have contributed to its growth. We also look at its maturity over the decades.     

Statistical considerations associated with a comprehensive regulatory framework to address the unmet need for new antibacterial therapies

At present, there are situations in antibiotic drug development where the low number of enrollable patients with key problem pathogens makes it impossible to conduct fully powered non‐inferiority trials in the traditional way. Recent regulatory changes have begun to address this situation. In parallel, statistical issues regarding the application of alternative techniques, balancing the unmet need with the level of certainty in the approval process, and the use of additional sources of data are critical areas to increase development feasibility. Although such approaches increase uncertainty compared with a traditional development program, this will be necessary to allow new agents to be made available. Identification of these risks and explicit discussion around requirements in these areas should help clarify the situation, and hence, the feasibility of developing drugs to treat the most concerning pathogens before the unmet need becomes even more acute than at present. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国统计高等教育的回顾与前瞻

 作为一名统计教育工作者,我有幸亲身经历了最近20多年来我国统计教育拨乱反正、改革开放与发展波澜壮阔的整个过程。在世纪之交,愿以这篇文章回顾过去,展望未来,以迎接新世纪的挑战。     

物联网技术对国民经济核算发展的影响

物联网技术将深刻改变国民经济核算记录流量和存量的方式。本文基于物联网的发展趋势,从生产范围变化、核算单位划分、常住性原则、记账方式、非正规经济核算、卫星账户核算等方面研究了物联网发展对国民经济核算体系的综合影响。研究认为,物联网时代的国民经济核算在理论框架、提供方式、制度环境和应用领域等方面都会发生较大的变化,而应对这些变化将成为大数据时代官方统计的基本使命。     

我国农村住户调查新模式研究

一、目前我国农村住户抽样调查现状与问题（一）农村住户抽样调查释义、回顾、意义及作用农村住户抽样调查是对农村住户的家庭、社会、经济等情况进行抽样调查。在我国,农村住户抽样调查主要是以农民家庭为对象,以生产、分配、消费、积累为主要内容的一项综合性社会经济...     

The Future of Statistical Computing on Desktop Computers

A class of computing devices known as desktop computers has emerged over the last several years. The International Data Corporation (McGovern 1980) estimates that the number of desktop computers is increasing by approximately 53,000 each month. Because of the projected widespread use of desktop computers and anticipated improvements in hardware, the potential for impressive statistical computing on these devices is exciting. Two features of desktop computers will be particularly important for those doing statistical analyses: (a) the ease-of-use of the computers, and (b) their extensive graphics capabilities. The author suggests that sophisticated statistical software will be available in the near future on many different models of desktop computers. Indeed, several of the manufacturers provide high-quality software at the present time. The implications for statisticians of a rapid growth rate for desktop computers are discussed for data analysis, software development, graphics, and instructional usage.     

Scenarios, Uncertainty and Conditional Forecasts of the World Population

Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort–component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10 736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high–low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high–low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.     

要素均衡： 人类发展指数的算法改进与实证研究

 人类发展指数是一个影响很大、应用很广的衡量人类发展成就的综合指标,但其传统算法存在两个统计缺陷：其一是缺乏对各向度本身的分布敏感性;其二是没有考虑各向度之间的均衡性。本文以后者为针对,采用测度准则法,提出一种以要素均衡为导向的人类发展指数改进法。实证显示,与人类发展指数的传统及现行算法相比较,此改进既能更好地体现人类发展的要义,也可提高人类发展指数的统计鉴别力,所以可用作计算人类发展指数的一种新选择。     

《九章算术》中的统计学思想探究

《九章算术》是中国历史上最著名的一部数学经典,该书以应用问题求解的形式为成书体例,而这些问题基本都与社会经济有关,因此书中蕴涵了丰富的统计学思想。本文从统计范围和统计思想的角度对书中的统计知识进行了分析,探讨了书中诸如统计分组、抽样推断、线性回归分析及比例关系等统计理论,并据此对当时中国古代统计思想的发展状况进行了研究。     

世纪之交：国民经济核算的回顾与前瞻

一、国民经济核算——— 2 0世纪经济理论最大成就之一　　2 0世纪经济科学领域里 ,最为显著的进展是数量分析的兴趣和实证研究倾向的日益增强。尤其在国民经济领域内 ,这种转变更为突出 ,成就十分辉煌。对于国民经济而言 ,科学有效的定量、实证研究和调控、管理操作依据两个基本条件 ;一是建立适当的理论分析结构体系 ;二是具备系统完整的核算资料。因此 ,正如著名经济学家里查德·斯通 (Ｒ .Ｓｔｏｎｅ)所指出的 ,现代经济科学是通过与核算科学的有机结合 ,在不断缩小先验理论与经验研究之间鸿沟的过程中来谋求新发展的。这一发展的一个重…     

How science got statistics

The role of statistics in science today goes well beyond the analysis of experimental results: it extends into the fabric of the science itself. Nature seems to operate as much by statistical laws as physical ones. Yet before the mid-19th century no one had an inkling that this was so. The enfolding of statistical concepts is one of the most profound changes in the history of science. Basil Mahon tells how two remarkable men began this transformation.     

Three centuries of categorical data analysis: Log-linear models and maximum likelihood estimation

The common view of the history of contingency tables is that it begins in 1900 with the work of Pearson and Yule, but in fact it extends back at least into the 19th century. Moreover, it remains an active area of research today. In this paper we give an overview of this history focussing on the development of log-linear models and their estimation via the method of maximum likelihood. Roy played a crucial role in this development with two papers co-authored with his students, Mitra and Marvin Kastenbaum, at roughly the mid-point temporally in this development. Then we describe a problem that eluded Roy and his students, that of the implications of sampling zeros for the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for log-linear models. Understanding the problem of non-existence is crucial to the analysis of large sparse contingency tables. We introduce some relevant results from the application of algebraic geometry to the study of this statistical problem.     

我国高科技上市公司无形资产现状令人担忧

一、引言在知识经济发展的今天 ,高科技产业已成为全球经济发展的重要生力军 ,很多高新技术企业将大力开展研究与开发活动、不断技术创新作为企业努力的目标。但是从目前我国高科技企业技术创新的状况来看 ,很多企业的技术开发与创新活动及其经济效果却并不令人乐观 ,从公布的 2 0 0 1年上市公司净资产收益率排名情况来看 ,排名前 10 0位的上市公司中高科技企业仅有十几家。拥有技术和资金优势的我国高科技上市公司 ,其经营与发展情况并不如人们所预料的那样好 ,这是一个值得人们思考和深入研究的问题。我们认为 ,无形资产是高科技企业生存…