Changing Human Populations in Post-Soviet Kamchatka: An Integrated Study of Shifts in Fertility and Net Population

We expect population changes to be closely tied to resource abundance or scarcity. Here, I demonstrate a clear relationship between the widespread socio-economic crisis of the post-Soviet period and declining population patterns in central Kamchatka. These broad patterns, however, vary among populations, reflecting particular interlinked socio-economic, ecological, and historical conditions. More dramatic decline is observed in areas where the socio-economic crisis has coincided with a local natural resource crisis. Analyzing population shifts in the context of local circumstances, this paper corroborates the link between resource conditions and changes at the family level.     

俄罗斯远东地区人口危机与中俄劳务合作

21世纪,俄罗斯政府把经济发展重心转向了远东地区,并制定一系列的发展纲要和战略措施。远东地区是俄罗斯经济发展的支撑点,近几年来,俄罗斯远东地区出现了人口危机,导致劳动力资源短缺,这给中俄两国的劳务合作带来了难得的机会。加强两国的劳务合作,对俄罗斯远东地区的经济发展、俄罗斯国家安全和促进中国劳动力的就业以及中俄的边贸发展、提升中俄两国的战略协作伙伴关系都具有十分重要的现实意义。     

俄罗斯远东地区中国移民状况述论

中国移民出现在俄罗斯远东地区的历史始于19世纪60、70年代,在近150年的历史中,远走他乡的中国人活跃在商贸、建筑、采矿、农业等各行各业,为远东地区的社会经济发展做出重大贡献。然而这一历史事实不但没有得到肯定,反而衍生出“中国人口威胁论”。通过具体分析远东地区中国移民状况不仅可以客观反映中国人在该地区经济建设和社会发展中所做的贡献,也是对俄境内“中国人口威胁论”的有力驳斥,有助于促进中俄关系更加良好地发展。     

The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990

This study applies a relatively new method called ‘co-plot’ to examine the relationships between the 48 contiguous states of the United States and selected indicators of quality of life in 1970 and 1990, and how these characteristics coincide with five-year interstate migration rates. The findings show an overall process of polarization of quality of life throughout the country. Strong similarity was found between states of a given division or region. The states which composed New England, the Middle Atlantic and the Pacific divisions are located in the strong sector of the socio-economic space. The direction of migration is toward states of the more external belts of the country. In the second part, multiple regression analysis was applied revealing a strong effect of economic incentives on migration; over time; migration turns into a widespread phenomenon among different socio-economic groups, with income becoming less significant as a predictor of interstate migration.     

Understanding the “Russian Mortality Paradox” in Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

In the former Soviet republics of central Asia, ethnic Russians have exhibited higher adult mortality than native ethnic groups (e.g., Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek) in spite of the higher socioeconomic status of ethnic Russians. The mortality disadvantage of ethnic Russians at adult ages appears to have even increased since the breakup of the Soviet Union. The most common explanation for this “Russian mortality paradox,” is that deaths are better reported among ethnic Russians. In this study, we use detailed mortality data from Kyrgyzstan between 1959 and 1999 to evaluate various explanations for the Russian mortality paradox: data artifacts, migration effects, and cultural effects. We find that the most plausible explanation is the cultural hypothesis because the personal behaviors that appear to generate a large part of the observed mortality differences (alcohol consumption, in particular) seem to be closely tied to cultural practices. We examine the implications of this finding for understanding the health crisis in post-Soviet states.     

从历史经济学角度分析俄罗斯远东地区的中国移民

俄罗斯远东地区的中国移民历史上就有先例 ,最近 2 0年移民新浪潮就像一百年前一样 ,具有经济特征 ,而不像西方舆论说得那样 ,有什么政治企图。从历史经济学角度分析这个问题 ,用政治行政手段规范调节移民政策 ,有利于推动俄罗斯远东地区的经济发展 ,有利于亚洲太平洋地区经济一体化。     

中亚朝鲜人社会的形成和发展

中亚朝鲜人是由远东地区迁移去的,并在中亚形成了自己的社会。苏联解体前和解体后,中亚朝鲜人通过建立、改革民族文化组织,力图实现民族复兴,逐渐形成了他们现阶段的社会状况。中亚朝鲜人的突出特点是与当地民族关系融洽,主动接受本土文化,但各国朝鲜人状况有明显差异。     

Race,gender, and marriage: destination selection during the great migration

Using historical census microdata, we present a unique analysis of racial and gender disparities in destination selection and an exploration of hypotheses regarding tied migration in the historical context of the Great Migration. Black migrants were more likely to move to metropolitan areas and central cities throughout the period, while white migrants were more likely to locate in nonmetropolitan and farm destinations. Gender differences were largely dependent on marital status. Consistent with the "tied-migration" thesis, married women had destination outcomes that were similar to those of men, whereas single women had a greater propensity to reside in metropolitan locations where economic opportunities for women were more plentiful.     

Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.     

Metropolitan deconcentration: Subareal inmigration and central city to ring moiillty patterns among southern SMSAs

The analysis of in-migration streams and subareal residential mobility patterns for moves made between 1965 and 1970in SMSAs in the East South Central and South Atlantic census divisions indicates that, despite their historical contexts, these metropolitan areas now show spatial differentiation patterns similar to those of the great cities of the Northeast. The white population has increased in ring areas primarily because of in-migration rates; the black population in the central cities has increased primarily because of in-migration rates to those subareas. Little variation in these patterns across SMSA size categories was apparent.     

Development and International Migration: The Effect of Income on Regular and Irregular Migration Intentions to Europe

In recent years, the development-migration debate has re-gained popularity in policy circles, especially after the so-called “migration crisis” in Europe and the following approval of the European Agenda on Migration. Much of the empirical literature supports the idea that the relationship between international migration and incomes at origin follows hump-shaped patterns. A growing number of studies find that increasing economic development and financial resources in developing countries would allow a greater number of individuals to afford the costs of emigrating. However, this evidence heavily relies on measures of regular migration only. Using nationally representative data from 12 Middle East and North Africa countries, this study adopts a multinomial logit model to frame migration intentions, distinguishing between regular and irregular routes. The main finding is that the level of household income is associated negatively with the demand for irregular migration to Europe. Predictive margins clearly show that higher household incomes increase the probability of planning only regular migration, while decreasing that of considering also irregular migration. The policy implications are not negligible: improving economic conditions in countries of origin may be effective at deflecting migrants from irregular to regular routes.     

A GIS-Based Interval Fuzzy Linear Programming for Optimal Land Resource Allocation at a City Scale

A geography information system based interval fuzzy linear programming model for city land resource allocation is developed in this study for dealing with land-use planning. The developed model improves upon the existing land resource allocation model with advantages in uncertainty reflection, model coupling, data availability and spatial analysis. The model can deal with uncertainties expressed as not only discrete interval values but also fuzzy sets. Therefore, it can effectively reflect dynamic, interactive complex, and uncertain characteristics of land-use system without unrealistic simplification. Moreover, the model can be used for supporting spatial allocation of land resources under a variety of ecological, environmental and socio-economic conditions. The developed model is applied to a real case of land resources allocation in Hangzhou City, China. Results demonstrate that the desired system benefit will be between $ [427.66, 549.83] × 10⁹; The model could help decision makers to generate stable and spatial land resources allocation patterns and strategic land use policies, gain in-depth insights into effects of the uncertainties and analyze trade-offs among economic objective, eco-environmental protection and social demands.     

二战后苏联西西伯利亚的油气开发与劳动力迁移

西西伯利亚油气综合体的发展以二战后苏联对西伯利亚和远东地区的大开发为背景。通过油气开发,西西伯利亚不仅在苏联油气工业中占据了重要的地位,而且极大地推动了苏联东部地区的社会发展。西西伯利亚北部地区的劳动力迁移受惠于油气开发。西西伯利亚油气开发是为了满足苏联冷战的需要,军事、民用部门的发展存在着"反差",劳动力迁移受到生活基础设施发展滞后等因素的制约。     

现阶段中国移民对俄远东地区经济发展绩效分析

现阶段俄远东地区人口形势持续恶化,外国劳动力促进地区经济发展的效应日益显现,其中中国移民对远东经济的稳定与发展起着十分重要的作用。中国移民加入远东经济建设对一些发展不力的产业部门如农业、木材采伐与加工业、市场零售业、公共饮食业起到积极的促进作用。从俄区域经济发展角度来看,吸纳中国移民是地区经济发展的必然选择。     

中国省际人口迁移与东部地带的经济发展:1995～2000

本文主要考察了 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年间中国省际人口迁移与东部地带经济发展的关系 ,发现省际迁移人口 (外来劳动力 )已成为推动东部地带经济发展不可替代的重要因素。正是大量外来劳动力的迁入 ,弥补了东部地带本地劳动力供给的不足 ,推动东部地带的GDP增长了 1 0 %以上 ,对东部地带GDP增长的贡献度几乎达 1 5 %。而且在东部地带 ,越是省际人口迁移吸引中心 ,迁入人口规模越大 ,迁入的外来劳动力对推动迁入地经济发展的作用和贡献就越大。     

The applicability of the burgess zonal hypothesis to urban Canada

A replication for Canada of Schnore's studies of socio-economic differentiation between United States central cities and suburbs produces generally similar results, although the Canadian patterns are by no means as pronounced or conclusive. Older, larger and highly suburbanized Canadian areas are most apt to have high-status groups over-represented in the suburbs and low-status groups over-represented in the central city. Furthermore, this pattern of socio-economic differentiation is found less often in Canadian areas than in the United States areas which tend to be older and larger. A study of change over time also suggests a movement toward socio-economic differentiation between city and suburb. These results are consistent with the Burgess zonal hypothesis which argues that lower-status groups increasingly inhabit the central section and upperstatus groups the outskirts as cities grow.     

Subnational migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates

There is no single framework in place in the United Kingdom for collating and harmonizing the data on migration taking place between the subnational administrative units that constitute the home nations, together with the flows of international migration between these areas and the ‘rest of the world’. This paper proposes the construction of complete matrices of subnational migration statistics on an annual basis which can then be used to monitor migration trends throughout the UK in a comprehensive manner. The paper reviews how various ‘known’ flows are estimated by the national statistics agencies and develops estimates to fill in the gaps in the matrices. It then looks at changing patterns of migration in the UK between 2001/2002 and 2010/2011, showing that migration exhibits most activity in the middle of the decade. Flows within the home nations are the most consistent over time, while the patterns of international migration and migration across the borders of the home nations exhibit more substantial change. The latter flows, although relatively small in magnitude, have not previously been studied at the subnational level in any detail. Patterns of subnational internal and international net migration are found to be negatively correlated.     

Non-familial activity and socio-economic differentials in fertility

The relationship between socio-economicstatus and fertility among married women is examined, using data from the 1/1,000 sample from the 1960 United States Census of Population and the 1960 Growth of American Families Study. Both sets of data indicate that the negative relationship between socio-economic status and fertility is still prevalent but may reflect different patterns of child-spacing rather than completed fertility. Labor force participation among these women is found to be negatively related to the number of children ever born. To determine the degree of involvement in this type of non-familial role, the work index or proportion of one’s married life engaged in the labor force is developed. The work index is found to be a particularly sensitive measure of involvement in the worker role vis-a-vis their fertility. The working hypothesis of this study, that such non-familial activity has a different effect according to one’s socio-economic status, is borne out. Participation in the labor force results in a relatively larger reduction in the fertility of upper status women than for those of lower status. However, this relationship apparently holds true only for those women from rural backgrounds but not for those from large urban areas.     

Ecological Analyses of Permanent and Temporary Migration Streams in China in the 1990s

Using data from China’s Fifth National Census of 2000, we analyze the dynamics of China’s inter-provincial permanent and temporary migration streams for the 1995–2000 period. The permanent and temporary migration streams are shown to have similar patterns, but the volume of the temporary migration streams greatly outnumbers that of the permanent streams. A human ecological model of migration is proposed and tested, and its results are compared with those of a gravity model of migration. Of the various ecological variables examined in the models, investment levels at destination, and being a coastal province at destination, all have strong effects on migration. The effects of the independent variables are more similar than different with regard to predicting the permanent and the temporary migration streams.     

Crimes and socio-economic environments

The purpose of this note is to study the relationship between crimes and the socio-economic environment in the metropolitan areas of the United States. In this study we define total crime rate per 100,000 population as a linear function of (i) per capita personal income, (ii) the unemployment rate (iii) the migration rate, (iv) racial imbalance, (v) climate, and (vi) males as a percentage of total population. Our statistical results confirm the hypothesis that social and economic conditions cause crime.