Managing a Portfolio of Product Development Projects under Resource Constraints

Managers of product development (PD) project portfolios face difficult decisions in allocating limited resources to minimize project or portfolio delay. Although PD projects are highly iterative (cyclical), almost all of the vast literature on project scheduling assumes that projects are acyclical. This article addresses this gap with a comprehensive analysis of 31 priority rules (PRs) on 18,480 portfolios containing 55,440 iterative projects. We find that the best PRs for iterative project portfolios differ significantly from those for acyclical ones, and that the best PRs at the project level differ from those at the portfolio level. The best PR depends on project and portfolio characteristics such as network density, iteration intensity, resource loading profile, and amount of resource contention. In particular, by amplifying the effects of iteration, high‐density networks hold dramatically different implications for iterative projects. Moreover, the best PR also differs depending on whether the objective is to minimize the average delay to all projects or to minimize delay to the overall portfolio. Thus, a project or portfolio manager who uses the same PR on all occasions will exhibit unnecessarily poor performance in most cases.     

基于项目网络支配和扩散关系的研发项目组合选择

项目组合包含多项目且项目间存在相互作用和依赖关系,针对传统项目组合评价方法忽略了各项目间依赖关系的不足,本文采用复杂网络理论和PageRank算法,提出一种新的项目优先级排序方法（PPRM）。首先,本文建立研发项目多属性评价准则,分析了项目间的支配关系以及技术和经验在项目间的扩散关系。然后,以项目为节点、以支配和扩散关系为边,分别构建了项目支配和扩散网络,进一步,采用设计结构矩阵（DSM）和K-shell方法建立了基于支配网络的项目影响力模型,并建立了考虑项目之间多次扩散传播的综合扩散概率模型。综合项目节点影响力和扩散关系,本文构建了基于PageRank算法的研发项目优先级排序模型。最后,以某研发项目组合选择为例,验证了本文所建立的模型和算法可有效分析项目组合中的排序问题。     

Remote control: measuring performance for value creation and governance of globally distributed knowledge work

This article examines the governance of globally distributed knowledge work. To measure performance in knowledge work, it is important to focus on what the knowledge workers do and hence view knowledge as something one does, namely the practices, instead of something one has. By following the practices of knowledge work, it was possible to evaluate the effect of measures related to organizational processes, and identify what was not well covered by the measurement tool. Strategic and long term needs such as learning and employee competence are better managed through projects. This article shows how work performance in international organizations needs two different measures: one tool for measuring short-term value creation linked to the organizational processes; and, one tool for measuring long-term value creation linked to the practices of service work made in projects. Global governance of distributed employees is therefore successfully managed through key performance measures and through understanding projects through their multiple contributions, at both an individual and an organizational level. Global long term governance needs are strategic for the entire firm. The paper rests on an in-depth empirical case study of an international professional service firm.     

资源约束下可打断项目组合选择模型研究

首先,本文在已有可打断项目组合选择模型的基础上,引入了消耗性资源和可更新资源约束,构建了一个更符合实际的新模型;其次,为了达到模型简化的目的,本文给出了资金约束的现值表示,并给出了理论证明;最后,利用GAMS对模型进行了算例分析。数值实验结果表明：1）资源约束下的项目打断有时可以给企业带来积极效益,这有别于已有的研究;2）在考虑资源约束的情况下,资源消耗少且同时收益高的项目应优先执行;3）当资源的供给量较少时,资源约束是决定项目选择的关键因素。此外,通过企业实际的案例对数值实验结果进行了验证。     

Completing projects on-time: how project acceleration affects new product development

How do accelerated time goals affect the execution and completion of new product development (NPD) projects? This research addresses this question as it relates to project content, project leadership, and aspects of design integration. Research data were drawn from a survey of 131 completed NPD projects from firms representing a wide variety of manufacturing industries. The results of an analysis of both intentionally accelerated and normally-paced projects suggest that project acceleration interacts with project content, leadership, and integration variables to affect on-time performance differently across NPD project types, sometimes in surprising ways. Two primary effects are posited to explain these inconsistent effects. First, NPD acceleration tends to increase the difficulty of the project by introducing new procedures and by reducing schedule slack. These changes are thought to exacerbate project content factors and to raise the value of NPD leadership and integration techniques. At the same time, an intentional acceleration strategy is thought to signal increased priority for the project, causing development personnel to make more careful decisions, and to more effectively implement new technologies and techniques. The article discusses the implications of the findings for future research and practice.     

风险环境下企业信息系统项目控制对绩效的影响机制研究:基于项目经理和用户代表的双重视角

虽然当前项目管理水平不断提高,但是企业信息系统项目实施的成功率仍然不容乐观。项目干系人缺乏准确的相互认知和角色定位,以及风险与控制的关系无法有效处理是导致项目绩效偏低的重要原因。为了从不同视角探索风险和控制对企业信息系统项目绩效的共同作用,通过对65位项目经理和63位用户代表所经历的128个项目的调查,利用结构方程模型进行实证分析,并采用层次回归分析技术进行检验。实证结果表明,正式控制和非正式控制对信息系统项目绩效都具有积极的影响,但是项目经理认为正式控制具有更加重要的作用,而用户代表认为非正式控制的作用更为显著。此外,项目经理和用户代表均认为组织风险和技术风险会减弱正式和非正式控制对绩效的有效作用。因此在控制方式的选择和组合上不仅要基于项目自身的特点,而且要基于干系人的角色。同时,信息系统项目绩效并非单纯由成功或失败因素所决定,而是取决于两类因素的均衡程度。研究结论为信息系统项目的风险控制提供了全新的理论依据和决策支持。     

子网络视角下项目群合同项目工期延误诊断模型研究

项目群工期延误诊断是项目群进度目标控制的一项重要任务。总时差可用于判断项目群中某项工作延误对项目群总工期的延误程度,但没有解决某项工作延误对其自身合同项目和后续合同项目工期延误程度的判断问题。本文根据多项目管理和项目群管理理论,通过引入项目群子网络,研究并构建了基于子网络的项目群结构。在此基础上,运用关键路径法（CPM）,系统地研究了因子网络中合同项目某工作工期延误对自身子网络以及项目群中后续子网络工期的影响,提出了子网络后主链定理以及前主链总时差定理,从而实现子网络视角下项目群合同项目工期延误的诊断分析。结合算例进行了具体阐述与应用。最后就如何应用人工智能算法实现项目群进度及其影响因素进行实时监控提出研究思路。本文研究成果为子网络承包商的工期延误责任划分以及索赔提供依据。     

An investigation of project complexity's influence on team communication using Monte Carlo simulation

Research using empirical methods has established a curvilinear relationship between team communication and performance. We conduct virtual experiments to examine team communication and performance when teams work under varying types and levels of project complexity. Data samples, generated using Monte Carlo simulation, are based on the statistical characteristics of empirical data collected from 60 cross-functional project teams that communicated over multiple media (email, phone, and face-to-face) and were completing projects of varying complexity. Regression analysis indicates that project complexity influences the communication-performance relationship. Optimization shows that the communication frequencies at which teams maximize or minimize their performance are dependent upon media used.     

重复性项目调度模型的时差分析

时差分析作为工程项目管理的核心内容之一,被广泛用于处理延期索赔和工期压缩等实际工程问题。RSM是针对重复性项目而设计的一类新的项目调度工具,在项目计划与调度领域受到广泛关注。在RSM中,目前尚未有普适的时差分析方法,并且已有的时差概念均要求工序必须连续施工。在考虑工序间断的情况下,区分了RSM中子工序使用时差的两种方式,即"调整开始时间"和"延长工期"。通过将CPM网络中的经典时差概念（包括总时差、自由时差和安全时差）与RSM相结合,提出了适用于RSM的新时差概念体系,以及对应的时间参数和时差计算方法。一个管道工程项目验证了算法的有效性。与已有文献相比,本文提出的时差分析方法具有更强的普适性。     

Finding and Implementing Energy Efficiency Projects in Industrial Facilities

This study addresses the challenges of finding and implementing profitable energy efficiency (EE) projects, a critical foundation for sustainable operations. We focus on manufacturing enterprises, but many of our findings apply also to the back office of service operations. Our starting point is that, in nearly every industrial enterprise, there are many profitable EE projects that could be implemented but are not. An oft‐cited hindrance to implementation is the lack of an internal management framework in which to find, value, and execute these projects. Using a conceptual approach, we rely on proven sustainable operations tools to develop such a framework. We identify three major value drivers of EE projects: savings intensity, “green” image, and project complexity. We then describe a framework for understanding the context of EE projects in industry, with an underlying analytic foundation in optimal portfolio analysis. A case study of a large manufacturing site is used to illustrate emerging best practices—based on Kaizen management principles—for integrating EE project management with operations, engineering, and strategy.     

Managing Outsourced Software Projects: An Analysis of Project Performance and Customer Satisfaction

We examine the drivers of project performance and customer satisfaction in outsourced software projects using a proprietary panel dataset. The data cover 822 customer observations related to 182 unique projects executed by an India‐based software services vendor. Adopting a multidisciplinary perspective, we investigate how project planning, team stability, and communication effectiveness impact project performance and customer satisfaction. We delineate the direct and interactive influences of the antecedent variables. We also examine how these influences are moderated by two important project contexts: (a) the nature of software work (maintenance and development vs. testing projects) and (b) project maturity (new vs. mature projects). Among other results, we demonstrate that, when project planning capabilities are high, the positive impact of team stability and communication effectiveness on project performance is even higher. In addition, our results suggest that the impact of communication on project performance is muted when team stability is high. Finally, we also demonstrate that the impact of the antecedent variables on project performance varies with the nature of software work. Our findings offer specific and actionable insights to managers that can help them manage outsourced projects better, and open up new research perspectives in the context of outsourced project management.     

基于突变的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤研究

对于以项目方式进行管理或生产的企业来说,共享资源在多项目、特别是项目组合(project portfolio,PP)中的合理配置是企业运营所需要解决的重要问题,对企业实现可持续发展起着关键的支撑作用。本文将突变理论引入项目组合管理问题中,在类比交通系统中车辆对交通资源竞争的基础上,提出了项目组合系统共享资源竞争拥挤概念,并对其基础变量进行了详细分析;其次,本文分析了项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤势函数和竞争稳定性,构建了以系统效率最大化为决策目标的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型;最后,通过HD集团的案例分析对项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型的可实践性进行了验证,并以此为基础,针对项目组合管理提出了共享资源的改进管理方案。     

Targeting lean process improvement projects for maximum financial impact

This empirical paper details a 12-month applied research project at a UK low-volume manufacturer of large vehicles. The industry problem from which this study originates was a concern over the subjective nature with which the firm’s existing lean intervention projects were being targeted (prioritised and selected). A structured literature review on this topic was unable to identify any objective decision support mechanism for doing so; one that encompassed financial as well as operational criteria. The resultant study was organised around an established seven-step action research framework. The main body of evidence was derived from extensive analysis of financial and operational data extracted from the firm’s enterprise resource planning system, along with two structured workshops that each involved multiple informants drawn from the firm’s production centres and its accountancy department. Supplementary primary research was provided in the guise of numerous unstructured interviews to validate data and from observation of shop floor practices. The main contribution of this article is identifying and addressing the gap highlighted above, by developing and testing a financially driven method for objectively targeting process improvement interventions within this large and geographically dispersed operation. This innovative method includes five new constituent techniques.     

A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model

Making R&D portfolio decision is difficult, because long lead times of R&D and market and technology dynamics lead to unavailable and unreliable collected data for portfolio management. The objective of this research is to develop a fuzzy R&D portfolio selection model to hedge against the R&D uncertainty. Fuzzy set theory is applied to model uncertain and flexible project information. Since traditional project valuation methods often underestimate the risky project, a fuzzy compound-options model is used to evaluate the value of each R&D project. The R&D portfolio selection problem is formulated as a fuzzy zero–one integer programming model that can handle both uncertain and flexible parameters to determine the optimal project portfolio. A new transformation method based on qualitative possibility theory is developed to convert the fuzzy portfolio selection model into a crisp mathematical model from the risk-averse perspective. The transformed model can be solved by an optimization technique. An example is used to illustrate the proposed approach. We conclude that the proposed approach can assist decision makers in selecting suitable R&D portfolios, while there is a lack of reliable project information.     

Project Portfolio Selection: A Newsvendor Approach

We consider the problem of balancing the penalties associated with budgetary slack (being underbudget) and cost overruns in the project portfolio selection problem by addressing randomness in project costs and making individual project budgets decision variables. Setting the budget for a single project is shown to be analogous to the newsvendor problem. For related versions of the project portfolio selection problem we provide optimal and heuristic procedures. Numerical experiments are used to test the procedures and provide managerial guidelines. We show project budgets should be set so that each project in the portfolio has the same probability of running over budget, it is better to have a larger number of projects with less than ideal funding compared to a smaller number of projects with ideal funding, and substantial opportunities to select more projects with a higher expected profit are available if an aggregate portfolio budget is used.     

项目团队成员怠工行为修正的理论模型

项目团队并不总能实现预期目标,项目团队中存在的某些问题属于怠工行为的表现,项目团队中怠工行为修正亟待研究。采用定性研究方法,按照行为修正分析模式,以行为修正理论、态度改变理论、态度与行为理论、认知平衡理论等为理论基础,经理论与文献研究提出:项目团队成员怠工行为与项目团队绩效的关系、工作态度在工作情境认知与怠工行为之间中介作用关系、团队文化认知在工作情境认知与工作态度之间调节作用关系,从而构建起项目团队成员怠工行为修正的理论模型。     

Fostering Risk Taking in Research and Development: The Importance of a Project's Terminal Value

Large firms face a conflict in managing a portfolio of high-risk projects. When an ongoing project is thought to have a low likelihood of success, project team members take risks to improve its chances of success. However, upper-level managers who allocate resources tend to withhold resources from a project with a low likelihood of success in favor of others in the portfolio that look more promising. Because this paucity of resources influences project team members to avoid risk, the total effect of success likelihood on risk taking is conflicted. The influence on risk taking of a project's terminal value—defined as the value that remains in the firm in the event of project failure—is unequivocally positive, because both senior management resource allocation and project team risk-taking propensity are encouraged by terminal value. Thus, firms can override the ambivalent effect of likelihood of success on project decision making by focusing attention on a project's terminal value.     

Project post-evaluation via AHP

In engineering projects, especially in developing new technologies, the deviation of the performance from the plan is usually large and quite unknown, unlike commercial construction projects where previous experience considerably reduces uncertainty. We present here an application of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate a large project involving constructing a new production line. A post-evaluation is presented rather than the usual ex-ante application of AHP: the evaluators were the managers and engineers directly involved with the project. Several criteria were considered such as meeting the schedule and meeting the budget. The criteria were based on the analysis of the problems the project faced. By weighting the various criteria and the various decision-makers' evaluations an overall grade was calculated for the project.     

受弹性时间段和价值波动双重影响的项目组合选择问题研究

许多现有的项目组合模型都认为项目集合可以在固定的计划期完成,但是在实际的项目执行过程中,决策者为了使得高收益的项目纳入项目集合中或者放弃风险高的项目来释放更多的资金,会选择对项目组合固定的计划期进行灵活性调整。同时,考虑到项目未来价值的不确定性,本文利用实物期权的二叉树模型给出了价值波动的公式,进而建立了同时受弹性时间段和价值波动影响的项目组合选择的新模型,对传统的计算项目价值的净现值法进行补充。通过GAMS/BARON对算例进行求解,验证了模型的合理性和有效性。结果表明：考虑弹性时间段和价值波动的影响会给更符合企业长期的发展战略,给企业带来更大的收益,该模型也为处理不确定情况下的项目组合问题提供了新思路和新方法。