A NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF CAPACITATED POSTPONEMENT

Customer satisfaction can be achieved by providing rapid delivery of a wide variety of products. High levels of product variety require correspondingly high levels of inventory of each item to quickly respond to customer demand. Delayed product differentiation has been identified as a strategy to reduce final product inventories while providing the required customer service levels. However, it is done so at the cost of devoting large production capacities to the differentiation stage. We study the impact of this postponement capacity on the ability to achieve the benefits of delayed product differentiation. We examine a single‐period capacitated inventory model and consider a manufacturing system that produces a single item that is finished into multiple products. After assembly, some amount of the common generic item is completed as non‐postponed products, whereas some of the common item is kept as in‐process inventory, thereby postponing the commitment to a specific product. The non‐postponed finished‐goods inventory is used first to meet demand. Demand in excess of this inventory is met, if possible, through the completion of the common items. Our results indicate that a relatively small amount of postponement capacity is needed to achieve all of the benefits of completely delaying product differentiation for all customer demand. This important result will permit many firms to adopt this delaying strategy who previously thought it to be either technologically impossible or prohibitively expensive to do so.     

考虑渠道权利结构的产品服务能力竞争机制研究——制造商服务视角

本文针对两个制造商和一个零售商构成的产品服务供应链,以制造商提供服务为视角,研究了产品服务能力竞争问题。运用Stackelberg动态博弈,分别从制造商Stackelberg、零售商Stackelberg和垂直纳什三种不同权利结构情形,求解了供应链成员企业的均衡策略。通过分析服务成本与不同渠道权利结构下均衡结果之间的变化关系,提出能够满足不同客户需求特征的产品服务能力竞争策略。结果表明,当价格与服务能力水平都比较低时,RS价格领先型策略能够满足实惠型客户需求;当服务能力水平比较高时,VN服务领先型策略能够满足经济型客户需求;当价格比较高时,MS产品领先型策略能够满足专业型客户需求;当价格与服务能力水平都比较高时,产品服务融合策略能够满足品质型客户需求。最后,结合批发价格、服务能力水平、零售价格与服务成本之间的数值变化关系,分析了产品服务能力竞争策略的有效性。     

Postponement implementation in integrated production and inventory plan under deterioration effects: a case study of a juice producer with limited storage capacity

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a production and inventory plan for a fresh apple juice producer. During harvest season, the producer extracts premium juice from freshly picked apples and keeps an inventory of these premium apples in his temperature-controlled storage facility. The producer extracts also regular juice from regular apples purchased from third-party storages. To satisfy future demand, the producer carries inventories of juice and apple. The levels of apple inventories are constrained by the producer’s limited storage space, but he can replenish regular apples. To assist the producer in facing demand uncertainty and deterioration of apples, we develop a production and inventory plan that incorporates postponement to mitigate demand uncertainty. As postponement decisions are shaped by the cost structure of inventories, we integrate in one model the postponement decisions and the deterioration mitigation decisions that can alter the inventory costs. We build multi-period stochastic programming with recourse model to determine juice batch sizes and apple inventories that maximize the producer’s expected profit. The optimal solution illustrates the use of time and form postponements. We discuss the interactions between postponement implementation and decisions to mitigate apples deterioration. We compare the production and inventory plans with and without postponement and with and without apple deterioration. We also present sensitivity analyses for the plan under varying inventory cost and storage space.     

Managing finished-goods inventory under capacitated delayed differentiation

Delayed differentiation or postponement is widely advocated to mitigate conflicts between product diversity and inventory cost savings. Manufacturers practicing postponement often suffer from severely constrained finishing capacities and noticeable finishing lead times. Therefore, inventories are still needed for finished products. Using the concept of inventory shortfall, this paper studies base-stock inventory models with and without demand forecasting and provides a computationally efficient method to set optimal inventory targets for finished products under capacitated postponement. Computations show inventory-saving benefit quickly vanishes after the capacity reaches a certain level. The value of forecasted advance-demand information (ADI) to postponement is justified, but can easily be overstated. Finishing capacities usually force manufacturers to build ahead according to demand forecast. When capacity limitation becomes severe, intuitions often guide producers to build to forecast even more than finishing lead times ahead. Results of this research indicate that these intuitions may be invalid and build to forecast more than finishing lead times ahead may not be a good practice. Further studies reveal that under capacitated postponement the forecasted advance-demand information is useful only when the variance of demand forecast errors is less than that of demands, and show that the optimal forecast lead time can be obtained in the same way as if the capacity is unlimited.     

Analysis of postponement strategy by EPQ-based models with planned backorders

This paper develops economic production quantity (EPQ)-based models with planned backorders to evaluate the impact of the postponement strategy on a manufacturer in a supply chain. We derive the optimal total average costs per unit time for producing and keeping n end-products in a postponement system and a non-postponement system, respectively. By comparing the optimal total average costs of the two systems, we evaluate the impact of postponement on the manufacturer under four circumstances. Our results show that postponement strategy can give a lower total average cost under certain circumstances. We also find that the key factors in postponement decisions are the variance of the machine utilization rates and the variance of the backorder costs.     

基于遗传算法的集成产销系统参数优化

为了解决供应链中生产和分销的目标不同导致的产销系统的矛盾,本文将基于需求拉动的供应链中分销节点、成品库、加工中心、原料库集成,形成一个集成的产销系统。另外通过设计合适的染色体结构和遗传算子,确定了各个子系统的最优参数,这些参数使得集成系统在满足外生需求最低服务水平的前提下整体成本达到极小化。为了保证最优参数的可行性,提出了有效染色体生成算法。对算例的分析表明,服务水平的增加并不是以总成本的增加为代价的,集成产销系统可以在提高服务水平的同时降低总成本。     

Stabilized‐Cycle Strategy for Capacitated Lot Sizing with Multiple Products: Fill‐Rate Constraints in Rolling Schedules

In practice, deterministic, multi‐period lot‐sizing models are implemented in rolling schedules since this allows the revision of decisions beyond the frozen horizon. Thus, rolling schedules are able to take realizations and updated forecasts of uncertain data (e.g., customer demands) into account. Furthermore, it is common to hold safety stocks to ensure given service levels (e.g., fill rate). As we will show, this approach, implemented in rolling schedules, often results in increased setup and holding costs while (over‐)accomplishing given fill rates. A well‐known alternative to deterministic planning models are stochastic, static, multi‐period planning models used in the static uncertainty strategy, which results in stable plans. However, these models have a lack of flexibility to react to the realization of uncertain data. As a result, actual costs may differ widely from planned costs, and downside deviations of actual fill rates from those given are very high. We propose a new strategy, namely the stabilized cycle. This combines and expands upon ideas from the literature for minimizing setup and holding costs in rolling schedules, while controlling actual product‐specific fill rates for a finite reporting period. A computational study with a multi‐item capacitated medium‐term production planning model has been executed in rolling schedules. On the one hand, it demonstrates that the stabilized‐cycle strategy yields a good compromise between costs and downside deviations. Furthermore, the stabilized‐cycle strategy weakly dominates the order‐based strategy for both constant and seasonal demands.     

Location of Inventories in an MRP Environment

Previous research on MRP systems has rarely considered at what level in a modular sub-assembly product structure to hold inventories. Based on a simulation study of an MRP environment, we show that the correct decision concerning where to hold inventory depends on the variance in end-item demand, the amount of inventory investment, and concomitantly, the desired level of customer service. In particular, for small investment in inventories and moderate end-item demand variance, it is equally effective to hold inventories at the subassembly level or the end-item level. But when end-item demand variance is high, subassembly level inventories are better. As inventory investment grows, however, it is best to use a diversified approach of holding both subassembly and end-item inventories, irrespective of end-item demand variance. The robustness of these conclusions is validated by simulating a hypothetical firm that also uses safety time to hedge against uncertainties.     

COMPONENT COMMONALITY: MODELS WITH PRODUCT‐SPECIFIC SERVICE CONSTRAINTS*

Common components are used extensively for reasons including product postponement and expediting new product development. We consider a two‐stage assemble‐to‐order system with two products having uniformly distributed demand, one common component, and product‐specific components. We develop optimization models in which the cost‐minimizing inventory of the components must be determined and allocated to products in order to meet product‐specific service level constraints. We compare two different commonality models based on whether or not the products are prioritized. A distinctive feature of our study is the use of product‐specific service levels. We compare our results with models using aggregate service levels.     

Using Frontier Portfolios to Improve Make‐to‐Order Operations

Make‐to‐order (MTO) manufacturers face a common problem of maintaining a desired service level for delivery at a reasonable cost while dealing with irregular customer orders. This research considers a MTO manufacturer who produces a product consisting of several custom parts to be ordered from multiple suppliers. We develop procedures to allocate orders to each supplier for each custom part and calculate the associated replenishment cost as well as the probability of meeting the delivery date, based on the suppliers' jobs on hand, availability, process speed, and defective rate. For a given delivery due date, a frontier of service level and a replenishment cost frontier are created to provide a range of options to meet customer requirements. This method can be further extended to the case when the delivery due date is not fixed and the manufacturer must “crash” its delivery time to compete for customers.     

End‐of‐Life Inventory Decisions for Consumer Electronics Service Parts

We consider a consumer electronics manufacturer's problem of controlling the inventory of spare parts in the final phase of the service life cycle. The final phase starts when the part production is terminated and continues until the last service contract or warranty period expires. Placing final orders for service parts is considered to be a popular tactic to satisfy demand during this period and to mitigate the effect of part obsolescence at the end of the service life cycle. Previous research focuses on repairing defective products by replacing the defective parts with properly functioning spare ones. However, for consumer electronic products there typically is considerable price erosion while repair costs stay steady over time. As a consequence, there might be a point in time at which the unit price of the product drops below the repair costs. If so, it is more cost effective to adopt an alternative policy to meet service demands toward the end of the final phase, such as offering customers a new product of the similar type or a discount on a next generation product. This study examines the cost trade‐offs of implementing alternative policies for the repair policy and develops an exact expression for the expected total cost function. Using this expression, the optimal final order quantity and switching time from repair to an alternative policy can be determined simultaneously. Numerical analysis of a real world case sheds light on the cost benefits of these policies and also yields insights into the quantitative importance of the various cost parameters.     

Optimal Configuration of a Service Delivery Network: An Application to a Financial Services Provider

Driven by market pressures, financial service firms are increasingly partnering with independent vendors to create service networks that deliver greater profits while ensuring high service quality. In the management of call center networks, these partnerships are common and form an integral part of the customer care and marketing strategies in the financial services industry. For a financial services firm, configuring such a call center service network entails determining which partners to select and how to distribute service requests among vendors, while incorporating their capabilities, costs, and revenue‐generating abilities. Motivated by a problem facing a Fortune 500 financial services provider, we develop and apply a novel mixed integer programming model for the service network configuration problem. Our tactical decision support model effectively accounts for the firm's costs by capturing the impact of service requirements on vendor staffing levels and seat requirements, and permits imposing call routing preferences and auxiliary service costs. We implemented the model and applied it to data from an industry partner. Results suggest that our approach can generate considerable cost savings and substantial additional revenues, while ensuring high service quality. Results based on test instances demonstrate similar savings and outperform two rule‐based methods for vendor assignment.     

考虑跨渠道退货的双渠道供应链最优策略

基于零售商线上线下销售与消费者退货并存的双渠道供应链,构建考虑退货的双渠道供应链定价模型以及考虑跨渠道退货策略的双渠道供应链定价决策模型。通过理论分析和数值实验对比,研究集中决策与分散决策下的零售商最优定价策略以及总利润的变化情况,同时分析在不同退货策略下顾客偏好以及退货率对零售商定价和收益的影响。结果表明：零售商渠道的最优价格设置与顾客对渠道的偏好成正比,与退货率成正比。当顾客对某一渠道偏好程度高时,分散决策下的利润要高于集中决策,并且随着该渠道退货率的提高,这种利润差距会进一步扩大,因此零售商应实施分散决策的渠道策略,鼓励线上线下两个渠道进行竞争,从而获得更大的收益。从仿真结果可以看出,对于一般的服装产品,提供跨渠道退货服务的零售商总利润更高,在一定条件下跨渠道服务水平的投入会增加零售商的收入,但这种投入应该控制在一个合理的水平上,并保持服务与顾客回报之间的正相关关系。     

考虑自取服务和门到门服务的电动汽车物流网络优化策略研究

在环境意识增长与政府政策支持的有利条件下,电动汽车在物流领域得以快速发展。为提高物流服务的效率,降低企业运营成本,文中研究了考虑顾客服务策略的电动物流汽车服务设施选址与配送路径问题。采取顾客自行取货与配送人员送货上门相结合的多样化服务策略,使得服务站点的建设成本、顾客点配送路径成本以及服务站点补货路径成本之和最小。建立了整数规划数学模型,允许配送车辆在服务过程中前往服务站点接受充电服务。其次,提出了基于改进节约算法和禁忌算法的混合启发式算法MCWSA-TS。随后,在小规模算例将CPLEX运算结果与MCWSA-TS进行对比,证明了算法的有效性。最后,采用多组算例探讨了顾客取货半径对运营成本的影响,并对分离配送策略与联合配送策略进行对比分析。实验结果表明,多样化服务策略有助于企业满足顾客取货时间和取货方式的个性化需求。同时,兼顾运营成本与顾客满意度,促进电动汽车参与的物流服务快速发展。     

Customer‐Base Concentration and Inventory Efficiencies: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector

What is the link between customer‐base concentration and inventory efficiencies in the manufacturing sector? Using hand‐collected data from 10‐K Filings, we find that manufacturers with more concentrated customer bases hold fewer inventories for less time and are less likely to end up with excess inventories, as indicated by the lower likelihood and magnitude of inventory write‐downs and reversals. Using disaggregated inventory disclosures, we find that inventory efficiencies primarily flow through the finished goods inventory account, while raw material efficiencies are offset by higher work‐in‐process holdings and longer work‐in‐process cycles. In additional analysis, we document a valuation premium for more concentrated manufacturers after controlling for other firm characteristics, including default risk and cost of capital estimates. We conclude that investors trade off the costs and benefits of relationships with a limited number of major customers and, on balance, consider customer‐base concentration as a net positive for firm valuation. Overall, our study adds to interdisciplinary research in accounting and operations management by shedding new light on the relevance of major customer disclosures for fundamental analysis and valuation in the manufacturing sector.     

Planned Lead Times in Multistage Systems

This study investigates the impact of planned lead times on performance in multistage manufacturing where material requirements planning is used in a make-to-stock environment. We simulate a variety of different operating environments and find: (1) planned lead times are important to customer service levels under all operating environments examined, but have a smaller impact on inventory investment; (2) tight due dates introduced by short planned lead times hurt customer service without saving much inventory; (3) small increases to tight planned lead times improve customer service substantially with small inventory increases; (4) co-component inventories change with planned lead times, and disparity between such inventories is a sign of poor timing coordination; (5) the fixed order quantity rule performs better than the periodic order quantity rule; and (6) tall product structure and large lot sizes require particular attention to planned lead times. The findings also extend the current understanding of planned lead times by including uncertainties such as forecast error, yield loss, and equipment reliability. The study concludes with a way to diagnose and improve poorly set planned lead times.     

A Comparative Analysis of Master Production Scheduling Techniques for Assemble-To-Order Products

This paper studies the master production scheduling (MPS) activity of manufacturing firms that produce assemble-to-order (ATO) products. It describes four techniques for master scheduling ATO products: end-product bills, modular bills, super bills, and percentage bills. These procedures are compared in terms of the percentage of customer orders delivered late, the mean tardiness of customer order deliveries, and the total cost of inventory using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of an MPS technique is affected by the level of uncertainty of the end products' demands and the degree of component commonality in the product structure. In particular, modular bills produce the highest customer service level and super bills produce the lowest total inventory cost under most operating conditions. The conclusions also suggest that the choice of a particular MPS technique is often a compromise between the benefits of improved MPS performance and the costs of implementing and executing the MPS system.     

An Efficient Heuristic Procedure for Practical-Sized Capacitated Warehouse Design and Management*

The purpose of this paper is to refine and test a distribution system design model and evaluate its performance with respect to solution quality, model validation, and algorithm performance. The paper reports on the development of a multiproduct warehouse logistics model. The logistics model is used to predict the performance of distribution companies that typically have to deal with product costs, the cost to distribute the products from a set of warehouses to customer outlets, the level of service provided to its customers, and flexibility for each product group and market segment.     

How Long Should a Customer Wait for Service?

A major concern for service managers is the determination of how long a customer should wait to be served. Services, due to the customer's direct interaction with the process, must face a trade-off between minimizing the cost of having a customer wait and the cost of providing good service. A total cost model is presented for determining how long a customer should wait when these two conflicting cost components are considered. An integral part of this model includes a measure of customer satisfaction with waiting time which is used to develop a waiting cost function. The model is then applied to a major fast food chain, using data collected at several locations. Analysis of the data reveals that the “ideal” waiting time for this firm is significantly less than the current corporate waiting time policy. Thus, as indicated by the model, a corporate policy change is recommended to provide much faster service. The adoption of such a policy would result in increased labor costs, and would simultaneously increase the firm's overall profits. Although appearing contradictory, increases in current labor costs and long-term profits are both possible when management takes the long-range perspective suggested in this paper.     

The Effect of Lead Time Uncertainty on Safety Stocks

The pressure to reduce inventory investments in supply chains has increased as competition expands and product variety grows. Managers are looking for areas they can improve to reduce inventories without hurting the level of service provided. Two areas that managers focus on are the reduction of the replenishment lead time from suppliers and the variability of this lead time. The normal approximation of lead time demand distribution indicates that both actions reduce inventories for cycle service levels above 50%. The normal approximation also indicates that reducing lead time variability tends to have a greater impact than reducing lead times, especially when lead time variability is large. We build on the work of Eppen and Martin (1988) to show that the conclusions from the normal approximation are flawed, especially in the range of service levels where most companies operate. We show the existence of a service‐level threshold greater than 50% below which reorder points increase with a decrease in lead time variability. Thus, for a firm operating just below this threshold, reducing lead times decreases reorder points, whereas reducing lead time variability increases reorder points. For firms operating at these service levels, decreasing lead time is the right lever if they want to cut inventories, not reducing lead time variability.