考虑参考减排努力水平效应的联合减排与竞争动态策略研究

考虑到参考减排努力水平效应,构建了一个包括两个竞争的中小低碳代工制造商和一个品牌商的供应链,借助微分博弈理论研究了联合减排和广告的动态策略以及供应链协调问题。先后分析了供应链在分散决策和合作决策中的均衡策略,比较了两种决策模式下减排努力水平、广告水平以及供应链总利润现值的差别,发现制造商边际收益较低时,在合作决策中减排努力水平更高,否则在分散决策中减排水平更高;品牌商在合作与分散决策中广告水平的高低不取决于品牌商的边际收益而取决于制造商边际收益的相对高低,合作价值是品牌商边际收益的减函数,借助数值模拟分析了记忆效应和参考效应参数对供应链总利润现值的影响。通过设计低碳代工制造商和品牌商之间相互分担对方的减排成本和广告成本的契约,实现了供应链协调,达到了在合作决策时的总利润,并比较了竞争的减排代工制造商和品牌商在分散决策和双向成本分担契约中的利润现值差异,数值分析发现简单的双向成本契约并不能实现帕累托改进,本文提供了转移支付的思路以实现契约自执行性。     

Joint modified block replacement and production/inventory control policy for a failure-prone manufacturing cell

This paper considers a joint preventive maintenance (PM) and production/inventory control policy of an unreliable single machine, mono-product manufacturing cell with stochastic non-negligible corrective and preventive delays. The production/inventory control policy, which is based on the hedging point policy (HPP), consists in building and maintaining a safety stock of finished products in order to respond to demand and to avoid shortages during maintenance actions. Without considering the impact of preventive and corrective actions on the overall performance of the production system, most authors working in the reliability and maintainability domains confirm that the age-based preventive maintenance policy (ARP) outperforms the classical block-replacement policy (BRP). In order to reduce wastage incurred by the classical BRP, we consider a modified block replacement policy (MBRP), which consists in canceling a preventive maintenance action if the time elapsed since the last maintenance action exceeds a specified time threshold. The main objective of this paper is to determine the joint optimal policy that minimizes the overall cost, which is composed of corrective and preventive maintenance costs as well as inventory holding and backlog costs. A simulation model mimicking the dynamic and stochastic behavior of the manufacturing cell, based on more realistic considerations of the real behavior of industrial manufacturing cells, is proposed. Based on simulation results, the joint optimal MBRP/HPP parameters are obtained through a numerical approach that combines design of experiment, analysis of variance and response surface methodologies. The joint optimal MBRP/HPP policy is compared to classical joint ARP/HPP and BRP/HPP optimal policies, and the results show that the proposed MBRP/HPP outperforms the latter. Sensitivity analyses are also carried out in order to confirm the superiority of the proposed MBRP/HPP, and it is observed that for practitioners, the proposed joint MBRP/HPP offers not only cost savings, but is also easy to manage, as compared to the ARP/HPP policy.     

基于时间延迟理论的预防维修模型及案例研究

本文旨在解决设备维修决策过程中预防维修检查数据缺乏情况下如何确定出合理的维修间隔期问题。首先,通过预防维修技术经济分析,提出了有关维修间隔期和总的停机时间之间关系的预防维修模型。其次,根据时间延迟维修理论,利用故障记录数据和预防维修检查数据的估计值,建立了统计模型并用来计算维修间隔期内故障次数的期望值。计算机仿真检验证明统计模型正确后,采用最大拟然法估计有关参数,这些参数包括缺陷发生率、时间延迟分布、检查出缺陷的概率等。最后是案例分析,应用估计参数和预防维修模型,计算出最佳的维修间隔期。     

Production lot sizing with process deterioration and machine breakdown under inspection schedule

The paper develops integrated production, inventory and maintenance models for a deteriorating production system in which the production facility may not only shift from an ‘in-control’ state to an ‘out-of-control’ state but also may break down at any random point in time during a production run. In case of machine breakdown, production of the interrupted lot is aborted and a new production lot is started when the on-hand inventory is depleted after corrective repair. The process is inspected during each production run to examine the state of the production process. If it is found in the ‘in-control’ state then either (a) no action is taken except at the time of last inspection where preventive maintenance is done (inspection policy-I) or (b) preventive maintenance is performed (inspection policy-II). If, however, the process is found to be in the ‘out-of-control’ state at any inspection then restoration is done. The proposed models are formulated under general shift, breakdown and repair time distributions. As it is, in general, difficult to find the optimal production policy under inspection policy-I, a suboptimal production policy is derived. Numerical examples are taken to determine numerically the optimal/suboptimal production policies of the proposed models, to examine the sensitivity of important model parameters and to compare the performance of inspection and no inspection policies.     

Approximation Algorithms for Certain Network Improvement Problems

We study budget constrained network upgrading problems. Such problems aim at finding optimal strategies for improving a network under some cost measure subject to certain budget constraints. Given an edge weighted graph G = (V, E), in the edge based upgrading model, it is assumed that each edge e of the given network also has an associated function ce (t) that specifies the cost of upgrading the edge by an amount t. A reduction strategy specifies for each edge e the amount by which the length (e) is to be reduced. In the node based upgrading model, a node v can be upgraded at an expense of c(v). Such an upgrade reduces the delay of each edge incident on v. For a given budget B, the goal is to find an improvement strategy such that the total cost of reduction is at most the given budget B and the cost of a subgraph (e.g. minimum spanning tree) under the modified edge lengths is the best over all possible strategies which obey the budget constraint.After providing a brief overview of the models and definitions of the various problems considered, we present several new results on the complexity and approximability of network improvement problems.     

考虑故障停机的生产控制与维修计划联合决策模型

通过生产控制与维修计划协同决策,降低生产成本。首先描述生产过程,分析各项费用。其次,建立了考虑生产过程失控、故障率和故障停时间的生产过程控制、生产计划优化和维修管理联合优化决策的模型。通过模型求解,联合制定出生产过程检查策略、生产计划（经济生产批量、生产批次）以及维修计划（PM间隔期）,实现单位时间内总费用最低的目标。再次,案例研究,分析生产过程失控、故障率和故障停机时间对于经济生产批量、生产过程检查策略和生产系统维修计划的影响。该模型从理论上解决了生产过程控制、生产计划优化和维修管理联合优化决策难题,对于指导企业制定生产计划和生产系统的检修计划,进而提高产品质量、降低生产成本、确保准时交货都具有指导意义和实用价值。     

Optimal Resource Allocation for Defense of Targets Based on Differing Measures of Attractiveness

This article describes the results of applying a rigorous computational model to the problem of the optimal defensive resource allocation among potential terrorist targets. In particular, our study explores how the optimal budget allocation depends on the cost effectiveness of security investments, the defender's valuations of the various targets, and the extent of the defender's uncertainty about the attacker's target valuations. We use expected property damage, expected fatalities, and two metrics of critical infrastructure (airports and bridges) as our measures of target attractiveness. Our results show that the cost effectiveness of security investment has a large impact on the optimal budget allocation. Also, different measures of target attractiveness yield different optimal budget allocations, emphasizing the importance of developing more realistic terrorist objective functions for use in budget allocation decisions for homeland security.     

LR型模糊需求下连续盘点库存策略研究

本文研究了LR型模糊需求下缺货需补的连续盘点库存优化问题。基于可信性理论,建立了成本最小化的库存模型和两种服务水平下的库存分析模型,给出了其求解方法,并将成本和服务水平两方面进行综合获得最优库存策略。最后的算例分析,数值比较了不同模型下的库存策略。     

Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security

We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break‐even cost‐benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.     

Application of the knapsack model for budgeting

The budget problem of selecting projects (or activities) with known values (or payoffs) and associated costs, subject to a prescribed maximum budget, is akin to the knapsack problem, which is well documented in the literature. The optimal solution to maximise the total value of selected projects for a given budget constraint can readily be obtained. In practice, budgets are often somewhat flexible, or subject to possible changes, so that an optimal solution for a given budget value may not remain optimal when the budget is modified. It is, therefore, sensible in many situations to consider a budget range, instead of a single budget value. In addition to their original objective of maximising the total value of selected projects, decision makers are often concerned to get ‘value for money’, indicated by the ratio of payoff to cost. This paper examines how these questions can be tackled through the introduction of a stability index, to guide project selection within a defined budget range, and the use of a portfolio diagram, to help in the ranking of projects with respect to the stated twin objectives.     

The effects of component commonality in an infinite horizon inventory model

This paper studies the effects of component commonality in the context of an infinite horizon inventory model. Three models are proposed that are characterized by different degrees of component commonality. Assuming the three models all follow the same inventory policy, exact service level measures are derived and incorporated into cost optimization problems. With the infinite horizon assumption, potential setup cost reductions can be evaluated due to the inclusion of common components. The results indicate that, as expected, commonality incurs significant cost savings; what is new and unique is that setup cost may increase or decrease when commonality is present. In addition, when the behaviour of the optimal solutions is examined, it is found that some of the well-known properties suggested by the existing one-period models do not hold for this infinite horizon model.     

Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Optimization of Risk Protection Under Budget Constraints

Cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) is commonly applied as a tool for deciding on risk protection. With CBA, one can identify risk mitigation strategies that lead to an optimal tradeoff between the costs of the mitigation measures and the achieved risk reduction. In practical applications of CBA, the strategies are typically evaluated through efficiency indicators such as the benefit‐cost ratio (BCR) and the marginal cost (MC) criterion. In many of these applications, the BCR is not consistently defined, which, as we demonstrate in this article, can lead to the identification of suboptimal solutions. This is of particular relevance when the overall budget for risk reduction measures is limited and an optimal allocation of resources among different subsystems is necessary. We show that this problem can be formulated as a hierarchical decision problem, where the general rules and decisions on the available budget are made at a central level (e.g., central government agency, top management), whereas the decisions on the specific measures are made at the subsystem level (e.g., local communities, company division). It is shown that the MC criterion provides optimal solutions in such hierarchical optimization. Since most practical applications only include a discrete set of possible risk protection measures, the MC criterion is extended to this situation. The findings are illustrated through a hypothetical numerical example. This study was prepared as part of our work on the optimal management of natural hazard risks, but its conclusions also apply to other fields of risk management.     

Optimal Food Safety Sampling Under a Budget Constraint

Much of the literature regarding food safety sampling plans implicitly assumes that all lots entering commerce are tested. In practice, however, only a fraction of lots may be tested due to a budget constraint. In such a case, there is a tradeoff between the number of lots tested and the number of samples per lot. To illustrate this tradeoff, a simple model is presented in which the optimal number of samples per lot depends on the prevalence of sample units that do not conform to microbiological specifications and the relative costs of sampling a lot and of drawing and testing a sample unit from a lot. The assumed objective is to maximize the number of nonconforming lots that are rejected subject to a food safety sampling budget constraint. If the ratio of the cost per lot to the cost per sample unit is substantial, the optimal number of samples per lot increases as prevalence decreases. However, if the ratio of the cost per lot to the cost per sample unit is sufficiently small, the optimal number of samples per lot reduces to one (i.e., simple random sampling), regardless of prevalence. In practice, the cost per sample unit may be large relative to the cost per lot due to the expense of laboratory testing and other factors. Designing effective compliance assurance measures depends on economic, legal, and other factors in addition to microbiology and statistics.     

Fair task allocation in transportation

Task allocation problems have traditionally focused on cost optimization. However, more and more attention is being given to cases in which cost should not always be the sole or major consideration. In this paper we study a fair task allocation problem in transportation where an optimal allocation not only has low cost but more importantly, it distributes tasks as even as possible among heterogeneous participants who have different capacities and costs to execute tasks. To tackle this fair minimum cost allocation problem we analyze and solve it in two parts using two novel polynomial-time algorithms. We show that despite the new fairness criterion, the proposed algorithms can solve the fair minimum cost allocation problem optimally in polynomial-time. In addition, we conduct an extensive set of experiments to investigate the trade-off between cost minimization and fairness. Our experimental results demonstrate the benefit of factoring fairness into task allocation. Among the majority of test instances, fairness comes with a very small price in terms of cost.     

Optimal Allocation of Effort to Software Maintenance: A Queuing Theory Approach

We develop variations of the M|G|1 queue to model the process of software maintenance within organizations and use these models to compute the optimal allocation of resources to software maintenance. User requests are assumed to arrive following a Poisson process and a binomial distribution is used to model duplication of requests. We obtain expressions for expected queue lengths with an exponential server using an N‐policy for an integer N≥1. We also obtain the optimal batching size and mean service rate by minimizing the total cost consisting of the cost of the server, the cost of waiting, and the fixed cost of maintenance, if applicable.     

An Integrated Logistic Model for Predictable Disasters

In the aftermath of a disaster, the relief items are transported from temporary warehouses (Staging Areas, SAs) to the Points of Distribution (PODs). Reducing the response time to provide relief items to disaster victims and cost minimization are two important objectives of this study. We propose an integrated optimization model for simultaneously determining (1) locations of staging areas, (2) inventory assignments to these SAs, (3) selecting sizes and numbers of trucks, and (4) routing of trucks from SAs to PODs. We also introduce another variable, a value function, which forces the model to reduce the logistics response time. We study the interactions among these variables through extensive sensitivity analysis. The time horizon for supply of relief items to disaster areas is usually limited to six days after the disaster occurs. Therefore, we use the proposed optimization model in a rolling‐horizon manner, one day at a time. This reduces daily demand uncertainty. We analyze three disaster scenarios: (1) a low impact disaster, (2) a medium impact disaster, and (3) a high impact disaster. We conduct 720 experiments with different parameter values, and provide answers to the following questions that are useful for the logistic managers: (i) What are the right sizes (in terms of storage capacities) of SAs closer to the PODs? (ii) How should the budget be allocated in a disaster scenario? (iii) What mix of different types (in terms of sizes) of trucks should be selected in a given scenario? The most important managerial insights include: (i) operational budget beyond a limit does not improve the operational efficiency, (ii) when the budget is very low, it is essential to select smaller SAs close to the PODs in order to carry out operations in a feasible manner, (iii) when the impact of disaster is high, it is always beneficial to select larger SAs close to the PODs (as long as the budget is not very low), (iv) when the budget is high and the impact of disaster is not very high, the emergency management administrators need to select SAs prudently based on the tradeoff between the operational cost and the humanitarian value, and (v) the cost of operations is higher when all the trucks are of the same type compared to the case when there is a mix of different types of trucks. Also, we find that the optimal selection of SAs is not impacted by different combinations of the types of trucks. The focus of this study is on disasters that can be forecasted in advance and provide some lead time for preparations, for example, hurricanes. In order to understand the disaster management process of such disasters and develop our model, we (i) interviewed several emergency management administrators, and (ii) studied the disaster management processes available in documents released by various government agencies.     

融资融券背景下证券配对交易策略研究——基于协整和距离的两阶段方法

国内融资融券政策的正式启动,为证券配对交易实施提供了必要的市场环境,使其成为一种新兴有效的投资手段。基于协整配对法和距离配对法,本文构建了一种新的两阶段配对交易策略。在股票配对选择方面,首先采用协整分析选出具有相似股价走势的候选股票对;其次,采用欧式距离计算各候选配对股票距离,以距离最小为依据选择最佳股票配对,以避免同一股票同时被买入和卖空的风险。在资金分配方面,考虑当前融资融券交易制度背景,求解资金有限约束下的最优资金分配方案,以保证模型设计更为接近实际交易情况。以上证50指数成分股为实证对象,实证研究结果表明不同费率情景下,构建的新两阶段方法均能获得超额收益,且其效果明显优于仅考虑协整关系的配对交易策略;同时,敏感性分析验证了新方法的稳定性。     

Emergency inventory ordering assuming Poisson demands

Abstract

Most business and industrial firms use some procedure for emergency ordering. If independent demand for low-volume, high-cost items is Poisson distributed, subsequent analyses reveal that emergency ordering may be less expensive than carrying extra safety stock. Emergency ordering reduces the out-of-stock cost as well as the required safety stock. Total cost is sensitive to the lead time required for emergency orders. The results are particularly applicable to maintenance inventory. Under the assumptions of this study, the conclusion may be drawn that an emergency ordering system may approach the theoretical minimum for operating an inventory system.     

The Impact of Contract Manufacturing on Inventory Performance: An Examination of U.S. Manufacturing Industries

In recent years, a growing number of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have transferred their manufacturing processes to specialized firms, known as contract manufacturers. In so doing, contract manufacturers can reduce an OEM's production costs and provide OEMs with flexibility in the production process. We examine another potential reason for the use of contract manufacturing—the potential for efficiency gains from inventory reductions. Employing econometric models and data representing manufacturing industries in the USA, we provide statistical evidence that contract manufacturing can lead to lower industry‐wide inventory levels, after controlling for other relevant factors. Key managerial implications are derived from the analysis.     

基于市场划分的再制造许可费对定价策略的影响

研究了基于市场划分的再制造许可费对闭环供应链定价策略的影响。考虑到再制造商具有只针对于绿色消费者进行销售的高价策略和针对于全体消费者进行销售的低价策略,基于回收量约束构建了包含一个原制造商和一个再制造商的Stackelberg博弈模型,求解两类定价策略下的最优决策。分析表明存在再制造许可费取值区间,当再制造许可费在不同的区间时,原制造商将通过在闭环供应链中的领导者地位迫使再制造商决定不同的定价策略。最后通过数值分析验证了再制造许可费的取值区间以及不同许可费时的闭环供应链定价策略和利润。