两级供应链产品质量控制契约模型分析

基于博弈论和委托代理理论,研究在两级供应链中如何进行质量控制契约设计的问题。建立生产商和购买商的期望收益函数模型,生产商对其生产过程投资水平进行决策并确定其产品质量预防水平;购买商进行质量评价决策并确定其产品质量检验水平。生产商存在降低其生产过程投资水平的道德风险问题,在生产过程中将"削减投资",购买商为激励生产商提高其生产过程投资水平将支付"信息租金"的成本。购买商在进行产品质量检验决策时,存在夸大产品质量缺陷率的道德风险问题,在产品质量检验过程中将"过度检验"。运用最优化原理,求解生产商的最优生产过程投资水平、产品质量预防水平和价格折扣额与购买商的最优质量检验水平和外部损失分摊比例,并进行了算例分析,结果表明:当生产商提高其生产过程投资水平时,其质量预防水平将显著增加,购买商的质量检验水平将显著下降;随着购买商质量检验水平的提高,生产商所提供的价格折扣额先增大后减少,生产商所承担的外部损失分摊比例将会下降,其期望收益增加,购买商的期望收益将会减少,供应链联合期望收益将呈现"倒U"型,求解了期望收益的最大值及各契约参数的值,结果证明所提出的质量控制契约模型是可行的。     

基于私人过度自信的PPP项目最优补偿契约设计与选择

基于政府对PPP项目补偿决策的困境,引入一种单期补偿契约,同时考虑到私人投资者在政府补偿下会存在过度自信倾向,通过“均值-方差”描述而引入私人过度自信系数,建立私人投资的期望效用函数,从而运用主从博弈方法分析私人过度投资行为以及对政府最优补偿契约的影响,进而在私人过度自信不可观察情形下,讨论政府最优补偿契约的设计与选择。研究表明：虽然私人过度投资行为并不一定有助于项目预期社会效益改善,但政府总可通过相应地调整契约参数来设计适应私人不同过度自信行为的最优补偿契约,并当私人过度投资不可观测时,可根据其过度自信的概率分布情况来选择使项目预期社会效益比较大的最优补偿契约。研究结果不仅有利于政府的补偿决策,也为PPP项目的实施提供了一种较好的理论支持。     

Economic manufacturing quantities under conditions of learning and forgetting (EMQ/LaF)

Abstract

Abstract. It has been empirically observed that productivity improves as production continues due to system 'learning’, but that it deteriorates once the activity is stopped due to system 'forgetting’. Both learning and forgetting follow an exponential form with a 'doubling factor’ ranging between 0.75 and 0.98. We review and critique two previously proposed models, correct some minor errors in them, and expand one of them to accommodate a finite horizon. We also propose a new model that is more in harmony with the established learning function, for the determination of the optimal number and size of the lots in the finite and infinite horizon. The methodology used throughout is dynamic programming. We investigate the impact of all three models on the optimal lot sires and their costs, and establish the functional relations between the total cost and the various factors affecting them.     

International Digital Competence

This article evaluates which specific capabilities of a firm enable its internationalization process, with an emphasis on companies with exclusively digital products. The results provide an opportunity to examine the strength of earlier findings in International Entrepreneurship (IE) research, which has largely addressed high-tech ventures that export physical products. We reveal a set of intangible capabilities that are especially relevant to digital companies and their internationalization process, without foreign direct investment (FDI) or with limited outward assets characterized by non-equity entry modes. Using an inductive, multiple-case study methodology, we develop a new construct that we term ‘international digital competence’ (IDC). IDC consists of four capabilities critical to these companies: cross-cultural programming skills, global virtual networks, cross-border digital monetizing adaptability, and international business model reconfiguration. The possession of IDC enables digital companies to expand internationally through an online presence. Therefore, we propose that international online expansion can increase the likelihood of a digital company performing outward assets via non-equity entry modes. We also conceived that the digital company's strategy to achieve non-equity investments is moderated by its entrepreneur's international orientation.     

Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis1

Single-objective-based decision-tree analysis has been extensively and successfully used in numerous decision-making problems since its formal introduction by Howard Raiffa more than two decades ago. This paper extends the traditional methodology to incorporate multiple noncommensurate objective functions and use of the conditional expected value of the risk of extreme and catastrophic events. The proposed methodology considers the cases where (a) a finite number of actions are available at each decision node and (b) discrete or continuous states of nature can be presented at each chance node. The proposed extension of decision-tree analysis is introduced through an example problem that leads the reader step-by-step into the methodological procedure. The example problem builds on flood warning systems. Two noncommensurate objectives—the loss of lives and the loss of property (including monetary costs of the flood warning system)–are incorporated into the decision tree. In addition, two risk measures—the common expected value and the conditional expected value of extreme and catastrophic events—are quantified and are also incorporated into the decision-making process. Theoretical difficulties associated with the stage-wise calculation of conditional expected values are identified and certain simplifying assumptions are made for computational tractibility. In particular, it is revealed that decisions concerning experimentation have a very interesting impact on the noninferior solution set of options—a phenomenon that has no equivalence in the single-objective case.     

Modelling Survey Response Data and Determining the Optimal Number of Questionnaires

A modification of Huxley's [3] mail response model is proposed. This new approach retains the simplicity and intuitiveness of Huxley's technique and leads to statistically valid conclusions. Using this model, a procedure is developed to find the optimal number of questionnaires that should be mailed in order to meet some prespecified target.     

双渠道供应链中紧俏产品升级成本分担演化博弈分析

针对一个制造商和一个零售商所组成的双渠道供应链系统,本文运用演化博弈模型研究了供应链企业在紧俏产品升级成本分担中的产能分配问题,比较了无合作机制以及引入合作机制下供应链系统的演化稳定策略。研究发现：当无合作机制时,供应链系统根据不同的产能分配范围最终会稳定在以下3种策略上：(制造商投资,零售商不投资)、(制造商不投资,零售商投资)以及(制造商不投资,零售商不投资);当引入合作机制时,供应链系统在一定的产能分配范围内最终会稳定在双方共同投资的策略上。本文还通过算例分析了无合作机制时销售新产品的增加值以及产品升级成本对演化稳定策略的影响;产能分配比例,新产品批发价格对单方面投资概率的影响;引入合作机制下分享比例对共同投资为演化稳定策略时的影响。     

Establishment of risk acceptance criteria using Life Quality Index: Application to the Indian context

The formulation of risk acceptance criteria may be coupled gainfully with a prediction of the of investment required to comply with it, an exercise which can benefit from the application of socioeconomic indicators. The Life Quality Index (LQI) is one such indicator which amalgamates human mortality and wealth creation and places an implicit economic value on reduction of life risk. While there have been a number of studies to demonstrate the application of LQI pertaining to various technological systems, the present work extends it to estimate the sectoral level investment needed to reduce public risks to within the As Low As Reasonably Predictable region for the chemical industry, with specific illustration of the methodology for India. The potential reduction in public individual risk is computed as a function of percentage increase in safety investment expressed as a fraction of the industry's contribution to the nation's GDP. In addition, using a new, more accurate expression, estimates of a related parameter, the implied cost of averting a fatality (ICAF), are obtained for a number of developed economies and India. The ICAF estimates show reasonable agreement with the value of statistical life (VSL), a parameter which is integral to cost-benefit analysis of safety and environmental regulations.     

Financial planning for new products: Part I—Basis for model formulation

In a previous paper the author presented a staged approach methodology for the evaluation and selection of R & D projects. The present paper is intended to serve as its complement.The aim is the formulation of a matching overall long range budget planning policy which will attempt to answer the questions of “how many projects to prove” and “how much to fund” on the basis of satisfying the company growth objective.To achieve the above purpose, a staged budget planning model has been developed which recognizes and utilizes the specific attributes of the various R & D stages. Tje project stage survival rate and project stage cost ratio concepts are discussed. A steady flow of projects through the various R & D stage is maintained. The aim of the program is to produce periodically a planned number of new products fro commercial investment.This methodology may apply to R & D program with a sufficient number of moderately sized projects that justify the use of survival rate and cost ratio values. It should be constructed as a tentative effort for possible use within the staged limitations.     

动态均值-方差资产组合的有效性:时变风险容忍度视角

尽管均值-方差模型在静态资产组合优化过程中得到广泛运用并证明是有效的,但在动态情景下,均值-方差模型运用于动态资产组合优化过程中的有效性问题引起人们的质疑：一是常风险规避系数的设定不符合事实;二是投资者偏好设定不符合动态情景下的主流效用函数族。鉴于此,本文假设投资者风险容忍度是资产组合投资期与投资者期望收益率的函数,研究动态均值-方差资产组合的有效性问题。基于均值-方差分析框架构建时变风险容忍度下的动态资产组合模型;运用伊藤定理和拉格朗日乘子法获得最优资产组合封闭解;基于二次效用偏好下的动态资产组合,从资产组合策略、夏普率、确定性等价收益率和有效前沿等视角验证动态均值-方差资产组合策略和业绩,并予以实证。结果表明：动态均值-方差资产组合不但具有同等业绩而且体现了其灵活性和风险对冲价值;尽管动态均值-方差资产组合表现出高杠杆性,但其确定性等价收益率较高,且随投资期的增加呈现倒U型趋势;动态均值-方差资产组合的投资期效应显著,强于投资者期望收益率。研究指出,时变风险容忍度下的动态均值-方差资产组合管理和优化策略有效,但在短投资期（低于12个月）和（或）低期望收益率下并不适用。研究不但拓展了均值-方差模型在动态情境下的应用,而且体现了投资者源于心理和（或）其财富变化的投资行为调整。     

What affects new venture firm’s innovation more in corporate venture capital?

Although corporate venture capital (CVC) is a potential source of innovation, few studies have directly examined the impact of a parent company’s knowledge and resources on a new venture firm’s innovation performance. This article investigates the impact of experience with parent’s alliance and investment intensity on the extent to which new ventures in the U.S. use their parents’ knowledge and financial resources for their innovation activities at the inception of the CVC relationship over a 44-year period. Our findings suggest that ventures with alliance experience draw more on collaboration knowledge and relational capital, while investment intensity also increases innovation. At a low level of investment complexity, the use of alliance experience and investment intensity is positively related to innovation performance. However, when a parent company has high investment complexity for innovation performance, investment intensity and alliance experience are less effective. Our results, thus, unveil the CVC backing associated with the innovation of new venture firms.     

Environmental Factors,Managerial Processes,and Information Technology Investment Strategies

Although significant research attention has been directed at understanding the value of information technology (IT) investments for firms, very little attention has been paid to understand the IT investment behavior of firms. This article seeks to fill this void. We introduce the concept of IT investment strategy, defined by dimensions of intensity and proactiveness, to characterize the IT investment behavior of firms. Synthesizing the environmental deterministic and strategic choice perspectives of a firm's strategic decision making, we examine the effects of environmental factors, managerial processes, and the interplay between them on IT investment strategy. Specifically, we examine the impact of environmental factors such as industry clockspeed and information intensity on IT investment strategy. We also incorporate the strategic choice perspective to argue that managerial processes such as frequent chief executive officer—chief information officer communications and collective information systems planning play a critical role in shaping the firm's IT investment strategy. The empirical results show that the environmental variables are related to IT investment strategy. Besides, managerial processes serve as a means to understand the environment and thus moderate the relationships between the environmental variables and the various facets of IT investment strategy. The conceptualization of IT investment strategy and the focus on both environmental determinism and strategic choice should enrich our understanding of firms’ IT investing behavior.     

考虑制造商创新的供应链双向需求信息共享研究

本文考虑制造商创新,研究由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链双向需求信息共享问题。制造商与零售商均拥有部分需求信息,且制造商进行成本降低创新,根据逆向分析求解方法分析制造商与零售商在均不共享、制造商单方共享、零售商单方共享、相互共享需求信息情形下的均衡决策,并分别通过求解制造商和零售商的事前利润来探讨制造商与零售商的需求信息共享价值。研究发现：制造商在四种需求信息共享情形下的创新投资增量均与获取的需求信息正相关,而与创新系数负相关。制造商的需求信息共享价值在制造商单方共享和互共享需求信息情形下总为负,在零售商单方共享情形下总为正。零售商的需求信息共享价值随着制造商创新能力的增强由负变正。本文在供应链双向需求信息共享的研究中引入制造商创新,拓展了相关研究,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

A success index to evaluate e-Marketplaces

The internet offers companies many opportunities to implement new business models, in short called e-Business, and to reinforce their competitiveness in the market. Despite the great interest and demand shown towards e-Business, the number of successful applications is quite few. This study suggests a framework to monitor and appraise the success of a particular e-Business operation, e-Marketplaces. To achieve this, we propose a measure, namely the e-Marketplace success index (e-MSI) to quantify the performance of e-Marketplaces. e-MSI can be effectively employed for benchmarking among digital marketplaces whether they are competing or not. More importantly, the factors shaping e-MSI are also educative – the weaknesses and strengths of e-Marketplaces with respect to key success dimensions come right to the fore. We believe that e-Marketplaces can take advantage of this information to improve their effectiveness and, at the same time, actual and/or potential companies may benefit from a uniform, objective and robust assessment of e-Marketplaces.     

A fair evaluation of certain stage in a two-stage structure: revisiting the typical two-stage DEA approaches

The efficiency of decision processes with a two-stage structure has been studied by some modified versions of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology, such as the relational or centralized model, and the non-cooperative model. After revisiting the rationale of the centralized model provided by the literature, we find that some unfairness exist in its efficiency evaluation of certain stage. This unfairness leads to the usual underestimation of the overall efficiency by the centralized model. Furthermore, because the independent DEA model for one stage ignores its relation and coordination with the other stage and the two-stage system, externalities between these members may arise and lead to the seeming contradiction in efficiencies derived by independent DEA models for the stages and the black box system. Therefore, we argue that the efficiency of certain stage in the context of a two-stage structure should be reevaluated instead of simply using the independent DEA model. A sequence of leader-follower procedures, with data adjustment on intermediates, is proposed to eliminate the externalities and to ensure a fair evaluation. We find that, after this data adjustment, the reevaluation of the second stage for a given Decision Making Unit (DMU) yields the same result as obtained by the standard DEA model regarding the two-stage as a black box. Moreover, some explicit relations are established between the black box model, the centralized model, and the non-cooperative model. Two typical examples taken from the literature illustrate our main results. Our findings also imply that more emphasis should be placed on the game theoretic DEA approach to model the efficiency evaluation of two-stage processes.     

Marketing as an Investment in Shareholder Value

We present resource‐based and capability‐based arguments of marketing investment intensity to offer a strategic view of marketing as an investment in shareholder value. We find that marketing investment intensity has a U‐shaped quadratic effect on shareholder value creation (Tobin's q) that calls for marketing investment to be protected and increased, not surrendered. We show how marketing investments interact with investments in R&D, human capital and operations to reveal how strategic co‐investments can alter the shareholder value of marketing. Finally, we show how competitive intensity and failings in the firm's investment productivity (its ability to convert investment expenditure into sales) point to malaise in the firm's own strategic architecture as a fault for perceived poor returns from marketing investments. Our findings suggest that marketing investment should not be scapegoated when its contributions to shareholder value are not as expected. When invested in strategically and in combination with other investments, marketing can unlock exciting improvements in shareholder value.     

SOME CAUTIONARY NOTES ON THE USE OF CONJOINT MEASUREMENT FOR HUMAN JUDGMENT MODELING*

Conjoint measurement has been suggested as a methodology that might be useful in assisting research concerned with the identification of the structural form of a judge's model. This paper synthesizes the results of some recent research that examined the robustness of this methodology. This research suggests that conjoint measurement has three major weaknesses: (1) certain biases exist when diagnosing model structure, (2) model diagnosis is limited to a small set of potential models, and (3) error substantially compromises conjoint measurement's ability to diagnose model structure. An empirical example that demonstrates some of the difficulties of using this methodology with experimental data is also presented.     

Quantifying level of investment in growth and renewal

This paper presents an approach for quantifying level of investment in corporate growth and renewal. The methodology is based on structuring goal models to attain a specified level of return on investment. The goal models are derived with steady-state assumptions which imply constant growth rates. The concept of product lifetime is introduced to take into consideration the finite life span of all products.Much of the material in this paper may appear, at first glance, to be rather complex and formidable to those not inclined toward mathematical expressions. However, the methodology described can be followed rather easily by merely skimming over the equations since every mathematical expression is shown in graphical format. The mathematics has been included since the material presented may well be a new way of looking at investment in growth and renewal and therefore the conclusions would not be immediately obvious without mathematical backup.     

Setting objectives in terms of added value

The concept of added value is not new but this paper examines some new aspects of the implications of added value for corporate policy making. Whilst the concept has been recognised as a sound basis for the measurement of performance what implications has it for the wider corporate objectives which are often an accepted part of company policy? The author examines the many different ‘stakeholder’ interests from the point of view of added value and examines some of the implications and limitations of the added value concept to the nonmarketed services such as education and health.The author concludes by examining the implications of use of the added value concept for capital appraisal and investment analysis. In this context the author proposes a broadening of the views taken of capital investment analysis and postulates a number of interesting future avenues for study.     

Analysis and Approximation of a JIT Production Line: A Comment

A recent Decision Sciences article by Jordan [9] presented a Markov-chain model of a just-in-time (JIT) production line. This model was used to estimate average inventories and production rates to find the optimal number of kanbans. Results for expected production rate were found to be consistently lower than those obtained by Huang, Rees, and Taylor [8] in a previous Decision Sciences article. Jordan attributed this unexpected outcome to some procedural problems in Huang et al.'s simulation methodology. In this paper, Markov-numerical analysis is used to compare the performance of Jordan's and Huang et al.'s methods of production control. Simulation analysis is then used to determine the effects of finite withdrawal cycle times. Results show that, for equal numbers of kanbans, Huang et al.'s two-card method of production control provides substantially greater expected production rates than Jordan's method. These results suggest that the Jordan model should not be applied to the problem of setting kanban numbers on manual JIT lines. Finally, we comment on the efficiency of Jordan's iterative method to obtain performance measures of tandem queues.