Performance analysis of serial supply chain networks considering system disruptions

The supply chain networks could be very fragile in global environment due to unexpected events such as emergencies, normal disruptions and industrial accidents. The supply chain members may lose their production capacities temporarily, which might have significant impacts on the performance of the whole supply chain network. This article proposes a discrete time model to characterise the unreliable production capacity in serial supply chain networks. Based on the proposed model, the exact probability distributions are available for the performance analysis of a single-stage system in the lost sales scenario. The iterative methods are developed to derive the approximate performance measures for single-stage systems in the backorder scenario and multi-stage systems in both the lost sales and backorder scenarios. The proposed methods are verified through a series of numerical experiments. The analysis results suggest that the performance of the supply chain network suffers more from the downstream-stage unreliability than the upstream-stage unreliability. Furthermore, some application examples are illustrated to show the possible solutions for practical problems.     

复杂供应链网络视域下关系资本对供应链融资作用机制研究--有调节的多重中介效应模型构建与检验

从复杂供应链网络的视角出发,以供应链网络内各节点中小企业为研究对象,依照"资源-结构-行为-绩效"的思路,揭示供应链网络内中小企业积累的关系资本对提升其供应链融资获取频率的作用机制,并通过构建多群组SEM模型,验证供应链复杂性的潜在调节效应。结果显示:(1)中小企业积累的关系资本对供应链融资频率的提升有显著的促进作用;(2)对比"关系资本-供应链设计-供应链融资"与"关系资本-供应链整合-供应链融资"的拟合结果发现,两个特定变量的中介效应具有显著差异,且以供应链设计、整合为连续中介变量的多重链式中介效应模型成立;(3)供应链复杂性显著调节中小企业关系资本对供应链融资的转化机制链条,供应链复杂性越高,节点中小企业获取供应链融资更依赖"关系资本-供应链设计-供应链整合-供应链融资"的多重链式传导机制传导。这意味着,在复杂供应链网络当中,中小企业一方面需要提升自身关系资本积累,另一方面更要加强其在网络当中的位置优化,提升供应链整合水平,为获取更多供应链融资打下坚实基础。     

Transmission of a supplier’s disruption risk along the supply chain: a further investigation of the Chinese automotive industry

This paper primarily explores whether the transmission of a supplier’s disruption risk along the supply chain exists using a quantitative survey conducted in 31 Chinese automotive-related companies. Two downstream supply chain members are considered: manufacturer and distributor. Structural equation modelling is used. We find that both manufacturer and distributor can be affected by supplier disruptions. In particular, distributors are impacted in two ways: indirectly and directly. On the one hand, indirect transmission of the supplier’s disruption risk to distributors is assumed to be an outcome of interrupted material flows for the production and sales of whole vehicles along the supply chain. Domino effect is used to explain this phenomenon. On the other hand, direct transmission is presumed to originate from the direct business contact between the supplier and distributors in terms of automotive spare parts. Based on primary findings, this paper further investigates strategies used by manufacturers and distributors to mitigate the adverse effects of supplier disruptions through semi-structured interviews. Theoretical and practical implications, as well as limitations, are discussed.     

Scrutinising the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chain management: A systems thinking framework

Supply chain disruptions recurrently challenge end-to-end operations owing to the ambiguous understanding of the role of governance in impacting supply network resilience. This paper scrutinises the relevant literature to understand the plethora of interpretations in supply chain governance and resilience while further providing a new perspective on the representation of the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chains. In this regard, the Systems Thinking lens is adopted to pull together the typologies and constructs of supply chain governance and resilience from the literature. Methodologically, System Dynamics modelling principles are leveraged to capture the underpinning structural interdependencies in a causal loop diagram. The study reveals that endogenous and exogenous supply chain governance processes and mechanisms support the intrinsic and extrinsic resilience in networks. Overall, this research contributes to the supply chain risk management domain by synthesising the interplay between governance and resilience, identifying pertinent typologies, and articulating research propositions that can inform decision-making at policy and management levels.     

Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems

Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk‐based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk‐informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high‐risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience.     

多零售商供应链应对突发事件的协调机制研究

本文针对一个供应商和n个Cournot竞争零售商组成的供应链系统,从系统优化和企业管理的角度研究了该供应链系统如何应对突发事件。首先证明稳定条件下的收益共享合约能实现该供应链协调。但突发事件引起的成本和需求的扰动会打破供应链协调,当突发事件导致供应链的市场需求增加而生产成本减少时,供应商必须通过增加生产来应对突发事件;当突发事件导致供应链的市场需求减少而生产成本增加时,供应商必须通过减少生产来应对突发事件;并通过求解突发事件下供应链系统最优利润的Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件,提出了供应链在一体化时应对突发事件的最优策略。进一步证明了改进的收益共享合约可以协调突发事件下分散化决策的供应链系统。最后运用数值实验对模型进行了验证。     

需求和生产成本同时扰动下供应链期权契约应对突发事件

本文研究了单一供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链在期权契约下的应急协调问题。首先证明了稳定条件下的期权契约能够实现该供应链的协调,当突发事件导致随机市场需求分布函数和制造商生产成本同时扰动时,在市场需求和生产成本变化满足一定条件下,供应链最优购买量不变,否则将会发生改变,此时协调被打破;通过调整期权契约能够实现对突发事件的协调应对。最后运用数值实验对模型进行了验证。     

Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains

There are two broad categories of risk affecting supply chain design and management: (1) risks arising from the problems of coordinating supply and demand, and (2) risks arising from disruptions to normal activities. This paper is concerned with the second category of risks, which may arise from natural disasters, from strikes and economic disruptions, and from acts of purposeful agents, including terrorists. The paper provides a conceptual framework that reflects the joint activities of risk assessment and risk mitigation that are fundamental to disruption risk management in supply chains. We then consider empirical results from a rich data set covering the period 1995–2000 on accidents in the U. S. Chemical Industry. Based on these results and other literature, we discuss the implications for the design of management systems intended to cope with supply chain disruption risks.     

需求和零售商购买成本同时扰动的供应链应急协调

供应链的契约协调机制是供应链管理的重要内容,突发事件下的供应链协调机制是近年来的研究热点。 研究了在单制造商单零售商组成的供应链中,假设生产成本是其生产数量的凸函数下,当市场需求为零售价格的非线性函数,突发事件造成需求和零售商购买成本同时发生扰动时,集权、分权供应链应对突发事件的最优策略。 首先证明了稳定环境下的数量折扣契约可以实现该供应链的协调,在集权式决策下,供应链的原有生产计划对突发事件具有一定的鲁棒性,但是当突发事件造成的扰动超过一定幅度时,供应链的协调将会被打破,供应链系统必须改变生产计划才能实现其利润最大化。 在分权式决策下,供应链的原数量折扣契约不能使扰动后的供应链达到协调,因此,设计了新的数量折扣契约来使扰动后的供应链达到协调。最后给出一个算例验证了相关结论。     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Supply Chain Disruptions on Long‐Run Stock Price Performance and Equity Risk of the Firm

This paper investigates the long‐term stock price effects and equity risk effects of supply chain disruptions based on a sample of 827 disruption announcements made during 1989–2000. Stock price effects are examined starting one year before through two years after the disruption announcement date. Over this time period the average abnormal stock returns of firms that experienced disruptions is nearly –40%. Much of this underperformance is observed in the year before the announcement, the day of the announcement, and the year after the announcement. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that firms do not quickly recover from the negative effects of disruptions. The equity risk of the firm also increases significantly around the announcement date. The equity risk in the year after the announcement is 13.50% higher when compared to the equity risk in the year before the announcement.     

考虑交易安全风险控制投入的在线旅游供应链网络均衡模型

基于包括供应商、平台和消费市场的三层供应链网络结构，利用变分不等式刻画均衡态时在线旅游供应链网络各成员的最优经济行为，以及平台交易安全风险控制投入对供应链平台企业、供应链整体的风险水平和期望收益的影响。研究发现，在平台企业风险控制投入相同情况下，平台和消费市场的产品交易数量和价格大致相同，验证了模型的合理性和有效性。其次，随着交易安全风险控制投入的增加，平台自身交易安全风险下降，供应链网络整体的交易安全水平和交易数量上升，但平台自身的期望收益下降。最后，随着更多的平台加入，平台的期望收益下降，市场需求价格下降，消费者获利。但部分平台企业的搭便车行为，会导致供应链整体的交易安全风险水平上升。     

关联供应链网络级联失效机理及鲁棒性研究

为了分析复杂关联供应链网络在遭遇干扰事件时的鲁棒性,研究关联网络层内和层间级联失效机理.通过随机规则生成供应链无向信息层网络和有向物理层网络,描述并分析由α、β、σ等参数表征的节点负荷、容量等网络结构特性.针对存在边流量约束的情况,提出相应的失效负荷分流策略;通过构建极大簇函数,判断关联供应链网络中经分流策略后仍具运作功能的有效节点,并依据供应链信息层网络和物理层网络间一对一匹配的关联关系,构建时变失效迭代状态方程,从而有效描述关联网络间的动态失效传递.最后,在不同参数控制下,对初始单个节点故障和多个节点故障两种情况下的关联供应链网络综合鲁棒性进行数值仿真分析.按节点度从大到小、从小到大、随机3种方式去除多个节点,结果表明在β=0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 4种参数下,按度从小到大方式去除多节点,其引发的关联网络级联失效规模较之其它两种方式大;同时发现关联供应链网络在多节点去除情况下,其级联失效较之单层网络具有明显的一级相变特性,即少量的节点移除就会导致整个关联供应链网络崩溃.     

Co‐opetition and Investment for Supply‐Chain Resilience

This paper considers the problem of disruption risk management in global supply chains. We consider a supply chain with two participants, who face interdependent losses resulting from supply chain disruptions such as terrorist strikes and natural hazards. The Harsanyi–Selten–Nash bargaining framework is used to model the supply chain participants' choice of risk mitigation investments. The bargaining approach allows a framing of both joint financing of mitigation activities before the fact and loss‐sharing net of insurance payouts after the fact. The disagreement outcome in the bargaining game is assumed to be the result of the corresponding non‐cooperative game. We describe an incentive‐compatible contract that leads to First Best investment and equal “gain” for all players, when the solution is “interior” (as it almost certainly is in practice). A supplier that has superior security practices (i.e., is inherently safer) exploits its informational advantage by extracting an “information rent” in the usual spirit of incomplete information games. We also identify a special case of this contract, which is robust to moral hazard. The role of auditing in reinforcing investment incentives is also examined.     

供应中断风险下OEM供应链弹性运作与提升策略

供应中断是OEM供应链中企业面临的主要风险。本文基于供应链弹性分析的角度，将OEM供应链弹性运作问题描述为多变量耦合控制模型，构建了可变结构的弹性控制系统，研究了在供应中断风险冲击下OEM供应链弹性交互影响机制。在此基础上，提出了一种有针对性的提升供应链弹性的深度学习机制，此算法比传统的BP神经网络更加能够提高供应链绩效，并结合案例进行验证。研究结果表明：当供应中断发生时，深度学习算法可有效提升OEM供应链弹性，最大程度减轻企业损失。     

Impact of strategic and operational risk management practices on firm performance: An empirical investigation

Increasingly, creating and delivering value through complex supply chain networks involves substantial risks. However, strategy development under business risk conditions is not well-understood. This cross-country research examines how, under conditions of supply chain network risk, firms develop effective risk management practices. Using a literature review and survey research of managers from global firms; we present a research model, and empirically test the hypothesized relationships. The results show that under conditions of uncertainty, management decision-making is more likely to be cautious until visible forms of risks emerge, and prudent response mechanisms are put in place. This study identifies the crucial role of supply chain exploration and exploitation practices, and their influence in development of network risk management practices, leading to competitive financial outcomes.     

非对称信息下闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件策略研究

研究了非对称信息下一个制造商和一个零售商组成的两级闭环供应链在回购契约下的协调问题。在考虑零售商销售成本信息为非对称信息和随机性市场需求基础上,首先,分析了在正常状态下分散式系统决策情况,通过重新设计可变参数解决了信息不对称的问题,实现了回购契约下的信息共享和供应链的完美协调;然后,探讨了闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件的协调问题。研究结果表明：当突发事件造成市场规模和制造商生产成本同时扰动时,闭环供应链的销售活动将受影响,闭环供应链的协调将被打破,而闭环供应链的废旧品回收活动却不受突发事件的影响。为此,给出了闭环供应链回购契约的应急决策。最后通过数值算例验证了结论。     

多级供应链系统成本分析随机网络模型及算法研究

供应链成本管理是企业战略管理的核心组成部分。为研究多级供应链网络系统的成本组成及其分布特征、分析各节点企业的成本管理对多级供应链网络系统的影响、找到供应链系统成本管理中的薄弱环节和关键企业,本文构建了多级供应链系统成本的随机网络分析模型。首先研究了模型的结构性质特征,给出成本分布特征的解析算法。然后扩展模型,分别从系统成本类型构成(生产成本、库存成本和物流成本)和系统对企业成本波动的灵敏度两个角度深入研究多级供应链网络成本问题。数值算例分析结果说明了多级供应链网络系统成本分析模型和相关算法的有效性和实用性。     

随机订单干扰下考虑合并决策的供应链网络调度研究

为满足客户个性化需求的快速响应，企业需具备柔性的外部供应链网络结构，以协同方式共同完成产品生产。本文考虑具有交互特征的多个不同类型协同供应链网络，构建生产成本、库存成本、等待成本以及订单延期交货成本最小化的目标函数，并设计合并决策判断变量构建同类订单在相同协同企业处的开始时间约束。此外，模型中考虑确定订单以及随机订单两种类型订单，并设计随机订单在区间时间段中离散时间点的到达概率。为获取协同供应链网络生产调度优化策略，基于随机订单到达与否的场景构建四个子决策模型，并进一步设计判断提前安排随机订单协同生产和不提前安排随机订单协同生产不同调度策略下成本差异的主决策模型。仿真结果表明合并决策在带来生产成本效益的同时也引起了部分订单的延期交货，且不同类型的协同供应链网络对随机订单的抗干扰能力存在一定程度的差异。     

Integrating performance and risk aspects of supply chain design processes

Abstract

Supply chain design is a complex and relatively poorly structured process, involving choosing many decisional parameters and it usually requires consideration of numerous sources of uncertainty. Many conventional processes of supply chain design involve taking a deterministic approach, using point estimates, on important measures of supply chain effectiveness such as cost, quality, delivery reliability and service levels. Supply chain disruptions are often separately considered as risks, both in the research literature and in practice, meaning that a purely traditional risk management and risk minimization approach is taken. We have developed and applied an approach that combines the intellect and experience of the supply chain designer with the power of evaluation provided by a Monte Carlo simulation model, which uses decision analysis techniques to explicitly incorporate the full spectrum of uncertain quantities across the set of alternative supply chain designs being considered. After defining and setting out the general decision variables and uncertainty factors for 16 distinct supply chain design decision categories, we then apply that approach to combine the decision-makers’ heuristics with the probabilistic modeling approach, iteratively, to achieve the best of both elements of such an approach. This novel approach to fully integrating performance and risk elements of supply chain designs is then illustrated with a case study. Finally, we call for further developmental research and field work to refine this approach.     

移动互联网供应链协调机制研究

以移动“彩信”业务为背景,对移动互联网供应链的协调机制进行了研究.研究结果表明:在一定的市场需求下,移动网络运营商与服务提供商进行联合,共同决策网络建设规模和产品的销售价格,收入共享契约可最大化供应链的利润,并实现移动互联网供应链的协调.