What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.     

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: Toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

By the mid-1980s, fertility in most of the world's developed countries had declined to unprecedentedly low levels. Since then, it has declined still further in some, increased slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others. Irrespective of cause, these changes could not have occurred in the absence of substantial control over childbearing.While future increases and decreases are both possible, it is argued that, contrary to the usual demographic expectations for populations exercising substantial control over fertility, fertility in most of these countries will increase to approximate replacement levels and then undergo only minor fluctuations around these levels thereafter.     

Delayed childbearing in contemporary Spain: trends and differentials

During the last decade, family formation patterns in Spain have undergone a process of substantial transformation. Younger cohorts are increasingly postponing marriage and, once they enter marriage, they tend to delay childbearing. Partly as a result of these timing shifts, period measures such as total fertility rates are likely to underestimate true fertility levels. This study focuses on the first stage of family formation: the transition to motherhood. Following a birth interval approach, the analysis depicts recent trends and differentials in the timing of first birth and explores the role of premarital pregnancies and contraceptive practice on first interval dynamics.Durant la dernière décennie en Espagne, les types de constitution de la famille ont connu de substantielles transformations. Les plus jeunes cohortes prolongent leur célibat et, une fois mariées, tendent à retarder leurs naissances. En partie comme un effet de ces changements temporels, les mesures transversales, telles que la fécondité cumulée, sous-estiment vraisemblablement les vrais niveaux de la fécondité. Cette étude concentre son attention sur la prémière étape de la formation des familles: la transition vers la maternité. En utilisant une approche longitudinale, on analyse les tendances et les différences dans le calendrier de la première naissance et l'on explore le rôle des grossesses prémaritales et des pratiques contraceptives sur la dynamique de l'intervalle entre mariage et première naissance.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations.     

Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?

The takeover of the UN safearea of Srebrenica by Bosnian Serb forces inJuly 1995 was followed by the killing of alarge number of male Bosnian Muslim civilians,in what has been characterized as the worstmassacre in Europe since World War II. Thisarticle is based on a report submitted asevidence to the UN International CriminalTribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) inthe case against General Radislav Krsti,who became the first person to be convicted ofgenocide at this Tribunal. This case also formspart of the genocide charges against SlobodanMiloevi, Radovan Karadi and RatkoMladi. To our knowledge, this report isunique among genocide studies in its approach,using individual-level data to identify everyvictim in order to arrive at a highly reliableminimum estimate of the number of peoplekilled. This was possible because of efforts byhumanitarian organizations to register peoplewho disappeared during the war as well as theavailability of both pre- and post-conflictdata on individuals. We conclude that at least7,475 persons were killed after the fall ofSrebrenica. We also present estimates of theprobability of being a victim: more than 33%for Muslim men who were enumerated inSrebrenica in 1991.     

Crisis or Adaptation – Reconsidered: A Comparison of East and West German Fertility Patterns in the First Six Years after the ‘Wende'

Like other Eastern Europeancountries, East Germany experienced a rapiddecline in period fertility rates after thefall of communism. This decline has beendiscussed along the lines of a crisis andan adaptation to western demographic patterns. The aim of this paper istwofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors whichfoster and hamper a convergence of fertilitybehaviour in East and West Germany. Secondly,we use data from the German micro-census toanalyse the fertility patterns of the cohortsborn 1961–1970. The main result of ourempirical analysis is that East Germans whowere still childless at the time of unificationare quicker to have their first child in thesubsequent years than comparable West Germans. However, regarding second parity births, thepattern reverses. Here, East Germans display alower transition rate than their counterpartsin the West.     

The dynamics of full-time and part-time female labour force participation in Great Britain

This paper examines empirically the dynamics of female labour force participation in Great Britain stressing the distinction between full-time and part-time employment. A three-state employment model is assumed, the states being in full-time work, in part-time work and not employed. The six transitions suggested by this state space represent exits from employment, entries into employment and employment changes (or transitions directly from full-time work to part-time work andvice versa). In order to quantify the impact that selected socio-economic factors have on the intensity of these transitions, hazard regression analysis is used. The data are from the1980 Women and Employment Survey. The analysis indicates that full-time and part-time employmènt are states exhibiting major differences beyond the obvious difference in the number of hours worked.Cet article envisage les dynamiques de l'activité professionnelle féminine en insistant sur la distinction entre emploi à plein temps et emploi à temps partiel. Un modèle faisant intervenir trois états (travail à plein temps, travail à temps partiel et inactivité) est proposé. Les six transitions possibles entre ces trois états sont les départs de l'emploi, les entrées dans l'emploi et les changements dans le statut de l'emploi (ou transitions entre emploi à plein temps et emploi à temps partiel et vice versa). En vue de quantifier le rôle de certains facteurs socio-économiques sur l'intensité de ces transitions, un modèle de régression à risques proportionnels est utilisé. Les données sont issues de l'enquête de 1980 sur les femmés et l'emploi. L'analyse permet de conclure que des différences fondamentales existent entre l'emploi à plein temps et l'emploi à temps partiel, au-delà des différences évidentes du nombre d'heures de travail.     

The dynamic household as a logical concept and its use in demography

Event history models for aggregate units such as households are complicated by the fact that such entities do not have a well-defined identity through time. The difficulties of applying conventional transition-based models to household change are discussed. More generally, what constitutes time and change are also considered. It is argued that many changes occurring within households such as leaving home are better-considered as fuzzy than crisp phenomena. An alternative perspective based on household change considered as an evolving network is proposed. The implications for sample designs which are designed to track explicithousehold dynamics (such as the Panel Study on Income Dynamics) are discussed. The ways in which particular forms of analysis come to dominate the scientific literature, including those for analysing household change is discussed in relation to non-linear dynamic models. Finally, it is argued that there would be considerable benefits if insights available from the physical, mathematical and biological sciences were to be more widely incorporated within technical demography.Les modèles d'analyse biographique d'unités agrégées, telles que les ménages, sont complexes, car ces entités ne peuvent être définies avec précision au cours du temps. Nous discutons ici les difficultés d'appliquer les modèles habituels basés sur des transitions, aux changements connus par les ménages. Plus généralement, nous analysons ce qui constitue «le temps» et le «changement». Nous montrons ainsi que de nombreux changements connus par les ménages, tels que la décohabitation, sont mieux saisis comme des évévements «flous» plutôt que comme des événements ponctuels. Nous proposons dès lors une autre perspective, basée sur les changements survenus dans des réseaux en évolution. Nous en discutons les implications sur les méthodes d'échantillonnage destinées à tracer l'évolution explicite des ménages (telles que l'étude par panel sur l'évolution des revenus). Les façons selon lesquelles certaines formes d'analyse en viennent à avoir une position dominante dans la littérature scientifique, y compris celles qui permettent l'analyse des changements dans les ménages, sont discutées en liaison avec les modèles dynamiques non-linéaires. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il y a des avantages importants à ce que des approches suivies dans les sciences physiques, mathématiques et biologiques, soient plus largement introduites dans les techniques d'analyse démographique.     

Age difference asymmetry and a two-sex perspective

The paper shows that (a) the age difference between spouses can be and has been different for men and women; (b) male and female age differences can exhibit different trends; (c) the discrepancy is due to remarriage; (d) the age difference fluctuates substantially through time; (e) trends in the age difference are not readily interpretable as reflecting change in the relative status of the sexes; and (f) that trends in the age difference may be linked to marriage market conditions. The paper argues that marriage and fertility data for both men and women are increasingly necessary because of rises in marital breakdown and the associated divergence of the experience of men and women.Cet article montre que (a) les différences d'âge entre époux peuvent être et ont été dissemblables pour les hommes et les femmes; (b) les différences d'âge masculines et féminines peuvent présenter des tendances différentes; (c) la divergence est due aux remariages; (d) les différences d'âge varient de façon importante au cours du temps; (e) les tendances dans les différences d'âge ne sont pas simplement interprétables en termes de changements dans le statut relatif des sexes; et (f) les tendances dans les différences d'âge peuvent être reliées aux conditions du marché matrimonial. L'article montre que les données sur le mariage et la fécondité à la fois des hommes et des femmes, sont de plus en plus nécessaires du fait de l'accroissement des ruptures d'unions et de la divergence des expériences masculines et féminines, qui lui est associée.

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An earlier version of this paper, His and her age gap: asymmetry in the age difference between partners, was a contributed paper to Session F27 of the General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, New Delhi, 20–27 September 1989. A longer version appeared as LS Working Paper 70, issued by City University Social Statistics Research Unit, September 1990.     

A graphic representation of projection accuracy

In demographic literature, little attention has been paid to the problem of measuring projection accuracy. Experience with applying the accuracy measure quality of prediction, as proposed by Keyfitz, leads the author to a critical evaluation and elaboration of this accuracy measure. Time series of prediction quality values may show a remarkable temporal instability, partly depending on the chosen bench mark, which seriously hinders interpretation. This interpretation problem may be solved by an easily applicable graphical solution, a convenient short-circuit device to assess a projection's accuracy without restrictions as to size of population or length of projection period.On s'est peu préoccupé jusqu'ici de la mesure de la précision des projections dans les publications démographiques. L'utilisation de la mesure proposée par Keyfitz sous le terme qualité de la prévision, conduit l'auteur à une évaluation critique et à une élaboration de cette mesure de la précision. Des séries temporelles portant sur la qualité de la prévision peuvent conduire à une instabilité marquée au cours du temps, dépendant en partie de la norme choisie, qui empêche toute interprétation sérieuse. Ce problème d'interprétation peut être résolu par une solution graphique d'application facile, court-circuit utile pour évaluer la précision d'une projection sans aucune restriction liée à la taille de la population ou à la durée de la période de projection.     

The duration of lone parenthood in Great Britain

This paper examines whether the duration of lone parenthood in Great Britain is dependent on demographic and economic factors that also affect the living standards of lone parents and their families. The analysis is restricted to female lone parents and is carried out separately for never married lone mothers and previously married lone mothers. For never married mothers, the duration of lone parenthood is defined as the waiting time between an illegitimate birth (i.e. out of marriage) and marriage. For previously married mothers, the duration of lone parenthood is the waiting time between marital dissolution and remarriage. These durations are modelled with hazard regression techniques and data from the marital, demographic and employment histories of the 1980Women and Employment Survey.Cet article examine la dépendance entre durée de parenté sans conjoint et diverses caractéristiques démographiques et économiques qui affectent aussi les conditions de vie des parents seuls et de leurs enfants. L'analyse est restreinte aux femmes sans conjoint et réalisée séparément sur celles qui n'ont jamais été mariées ou au contraire l'ont été antérieurement. Pour les femmes non mariées, la durée de parenté sans conjoint est définie comme le temps d'attente entre une naissance illégitime (c'est-à-dire hors mariage) et le mariage. Pour les femmes ayant eu un conjoint antérieur, la durée de parenté sans conjoint est le temps d'attente entre la dissolution du mariage et le remariage. Ces durées sont analysées à l'aide de modèles de regression à risques, avec des données sur l'histoire matrimoniale, démographique et professionnelle.     

The impact of children on the labour supply of married women: Comparative estimates from European and US data

This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labour force participation by married and cohabiting women in twelve Eastern and Western European countries and the United States. Logit models for labour force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys. The estimated models are used to simulate the age profiles of labour force participation conditional on the level and timing of fertility. The simulation results are presented in a series of charts grouped according to similarities in the effects of fertility on the age profiles of labour force participation. Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labour supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered.Cet article présente des estimations de l'effet de la fécondité par âge et de son intensité sur la probabilité que les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes participent à la population active de douze pays d'Europe de l'Est ou de l'Ouest et des Etats-Unis. Des modèles logit estiment ces probabilités en fonction de l'âge, de l'âge au mariage ou à l'union, du niveau d'études, du rang du dernier enfant né et de la durée écoulée depuis sa naissance. On utilise ici des données sur les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes, issues de l'Enquête mondiale sur la fécondité de la Commission Economique pour l'Europe des Nations Unies. Les modèles estimés permettent alors de simuler les profils par âge de la participation à l'emploi conditionnés par l'intensité et le calendrier de la fécondité. Les résultats de ces simulations sont alors présentés dans une série de graphiques regroupés selon les similarités dans les comportements. Quatre types distincts sont identifiés selon les effets du nombre d'enfants et de l'âge du plus jeune d'entre eux. On considère également ici le rôle des politiques familiales et on montre dans quelle mesure les réductions d'offres d'emploi associées aux naissances d'enfants peuvent être interprétées comme des coûts d'opportunité.     

Religious intermarriage in Switzerland, 1969–72 and 1979–82

Patterns of marriage between Protestants and Roman Catholics in Switzerland during 1969–72 and 1979–82 are investigated using magnitudes of marriage attraction, measures that reflect the propensity to marry independent of population composition. The results show high levels of intermarriage, with religious differences becoming less salient in marriage choice. There is no evidence that the propensity to intermarry is influenced by minority group effects.Les modalités de mariage entre protestants et catholiques romains en Suisse sont analysées à l'aide d'une mesure de l'importance de l'attraction matrimoniale, qui reflète la propensité au mariage éliminant l'effet de la composition de la population. Les résultats montrent des niveaux élevés de mariages mixtes, tandis que les différences deviennent moins importantes dans les choix matrimoniaux. Il n'est pas évident que la propensité au mariage mixte soit influencée par des effets dus au fait que certains groupes soient minoritaires.     

The State of American Boyhood

The existence of a “boy crisis” in the United States is a topic of public policy debate. This study examines the state of American boyhood, using not only the commonly reviewed indicators of school achievement but also mental health, premature death, injury, delinquency, and arrests. Boys are in trouble in many areas: low rates of literacy, low grades and engagement in school, high dropout from school, and dramatically higher rates of placement in special education, suicide, premature death, injuries, and arrests. Girls, however, suffer from other problems, especially depression, suicidal ideation and attempts, and eating disorders, and are less likely to achieve at the very highest levels in mathematics and science. This study argues that both boys and girls suffer from characteristic problems, but the issues affecting boys are serious and neglected.

Race-Class-Gender Theory: An Image(ry) Problem

For over 100 years, but particularly since the 1980s, scholars have heavily relied on images of race, class, and gender as “intersecting” and “interlocking” forms of oppression and disempowerment. This imagery has helped feminists develop the empirically grounded theoretical premises that (1) race, class, and gender are social structural locations, (2) structural locations shape perspectives, (3) no individual is all-oppressed or all-oppressing, (4) the meanings of race, class, and gender are localized, and (5) race, class, and gender depend on and (6) mutually constitute each other. In this article I synthesize these premises to reveal some opportunities for theoretical development that may inspire a new generation of race-class-gender scholarship. I argue that while intersection is fairly limited as a conceptual image, the interlocking imagery can help us identify how the relationships among these structures of oppression have become institutionalized.

Learning and Experiencing Chinese Qigong in Norway

This article discusses the reception of Chinese qigong in a Western context by focusing on the learning and experiencing of qigong in Norway. Drawing on ethnographic material from fieldwork among participants of a style of qigong referred to as Biyun medical qigong, I in particular explore the variety of body–mind states that Norwegian qigong students experience. I have differentiated five “stages” of Biyun practice. Using these stages as a framework, I demonstrate the gradual progression in the learning of qigong. “Body,” “concentration,” and qi (“life energy”) are all important constitutive dimensions in the practice, but as the learning progresses, qi becomes more and more prominent. Drawing on a definition of the body as “learning to be affected” and “learning to affect” (Despret, Body Soc 10:111–134, 2004; Latour, Body Soc 10:205–229, 2004), I suggest that qigong may be perceived as a practice that, at its core, involves learning to be affected by qi as well as to affect qi.

Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation

Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990.

The Voice on the Bridge: Taiwan’s Regulatory Engagement with Global Pharmaceuticals 橋上之聲: 全球醫藥法規中的臺灣處遇

This paper analyzes Taiwan’s engagement with the standardization of pharmaceutical clinical trials at the turn of this century. Unlike approaches that treat local encounters with globalization as either reluctant acceptance or lasting resistance, this study calls attention to a complicated process of negotiation, the conceptual gap between the illusion of a unified world and the reality of persistently divided nation-states. To address this gap, an ethnographic investigation is required. Two concepts, “bridging” and “voicing” (fasheng), are introduced in order to capture Taiwan’s unstable status, what I term “the voice on the bridge,” in this process. Bridging emerged as a technical concept for evaluating pharmaceutical drugs’ possible differential ethnic effects. But it also reflects the ambiguous reality of a world in which each state is an islet connected to others by imaginary bridges. Fasheng (“voicing”) has to do with Taiwan’s long-held desire for world recognition as a state. This paper is an ethnography of globalization and the state that traces how Taiwan created a regulatory resolution through the idea of bridging and how this “voice” was articulated through various social strategies. It explores not only the complexity of interactions in the technical field of regulatory science, but also argues that looking at such entanglements of science and society makes it possible to move beyond simple interpretations of globalization.

The Conceptual Contours of Sex in the Chinese Life Sciences: Zhu Xi (1899–1962), Hermaphroditism, and the Biological Discourse of Ci and Xiong, 1920–1950

This paper “maps” a number of trajectories through which the conceptual contours of sex could be traced in the bioscientific discourse of Republican China. Focusing on the writings of the embryologist Zhu Xi (1899–1962), I analyze the epistemic functionality of such biological terms as ci (“biological femaleness”) and xiong (“biological maleness”) that acquired an unprecedented scope of cultural discursiveness in China only alongside the arrival of Western biology, which replaced classical learning and natural studies as the authoritative field of inquiry about life. I first show that when Chinese scientists used these terms to describe the sex of biological species, they relied on an epistemological framework of visual knowledge that granted some foundational operative power to a signifying order in which one could know by seeing the differences between ci and xiong (and, ultimately, sexual differences). These two terms’ lexicality and indexicality thus mutually reinforced one another in the production of their semiotic possibilities and epistemo-logicality. I then show that while they adopted ci and xiong as the bioscientific synonyms of the more culturally anthropocentric words such as nü (woman) and nan (man), Chinese biologists also incorporated sophisticated biological theories of sex from Europe and North America, including the theories of “gynandromorphism” and “intersexuality.” The implicit and explicit figurations of hermaphroditism reveal the ways in which at the heart of the entire bioscientific discourse of ci and xiong resides its key conceptual anchor: the human–non-human divide.

参数型Marcinkiewicz积分交换子的端点估计

得到了函数 b(x)∈BMO , Ω 满足 Dini 条件时参数型 Marcinkiewicz 积分交换子μ^ρ_Ω,b (f) (x)的端点估计 其中ρ＞1且      

War demography: The impact of the 1808–09 War on the civilian population of Åland,Finland

A pre-industrial population crisis caused by a war is examined using Finnish historical records. During the War of Finland (1808–09) the Swedish military deployed on the Åland Islands helped spread infectious diseases among the civilian population. The result was a short but intense period of high mortality. This article focuses on the short-term demographic impact of this crisis. Changes in age-specific and sex-specific mortality, fertility, and nuptiality are explored. Mortality increase was notable in all age groups, although older and very young people were more severely affected. A catch-up period in fertility followed a significant decrease in the number of births. Nuptiality decreased only slightly during the war, but a marriage boom owing to frequent remarriages ensued. A projection, assuming that the crisis did not occur, indicates that Åland's population losses were never compensated.L'utilisation des actes d'état civil finlandais permet d'étudier une crise liée à la guerre dans une population pré-industrielle. Les militaires suédois, déployés sur les îles Åland pendant la guerre de 1808–1809, ont propagé dans la population civile des maladies contagieuses. Le résultat en a été une courte mais intense période de forte mortalité. Cet article est centré sur l'effet démographique à court terme de cette crise. Il explore les changements dans la mortalité selon l'âge et le sexe, la fécondité et la nuptialité. L'accroissement de la mortalité a été important dans tous les groupes d'âges, bien que les personnes très âgées et celles très jeunes aient été plus sévèrement frappées. Après une chute significative du nombre de naissances on voit apparaître une période de rattrapage de la fécondité. Quant à la nuptialité elle ne diminua que légèrement durant la guerre, qui fut suivie d'un fort accroissement des mariages dû à de nombreux remariages. Enfin une projection de la population, qui élimine l'effet de la crise, montre que les pertes d'Åland ne furent jamais compensées à l'avenir.