Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

Drug Peddlers: How Four Presidents Attempted to Influence Media and Public Concern on the Drug Issue

This agenda-building study examined the presidencies of Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush to determine to what degree they influenced media and public concern for the drug issue. This study found a complex reciprocal relation between the president, the public, and the press, with results differing depending what president and newspapers were studied. However, when the data are examined across the various presidents rather than on individual leaders, the agenda-setting process is especially powerful with 8 of the 9 predicted paths proving significant. This study discovered that the president plays an equal or greater role than the media in the agenda-building process. The path between presidential statements and public approval was higher than the one between the media and the public. Although public approval polls drove both media coverage and presidential statements, the polls had a greater effect on the media. Finally, the path from presidential statements to subsequent media coverage was just as strong as the one from media coverage to subsequent presidential statements. Agenda-setting researchers, then, should not ignore the effects of the president and other officials on the agenda-setting process.     

Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and Its Consequences

The 2004 election was remarkable for a number of reasons, includingthe harsh, personal attacks from all parts of the politicalspectrum on a number of media pollsters. The idea of "killingthe messenger" has been around long enough for the phenomenonto have its own name, but it appears to have intensified muchmore than in the past. The article details the experiences oftwo polls and their pollsters, one national and one statewide.These attacks are part of a growing practice of trying to mitigateperceived damage by any message in the political marketplace.The article suggests that while there are positive effects fromthese developments, including heightened awareness among votersof polling methods, negative effects can damage the credibilityof specific polls and their sponsors, as well as the professionin general, including market and other public opinion research.The article ends with a call for researchers to be more openwith their methods and measures, and to strongly defend properlydone research against critics; for journalists to be more discerningin evaluating poll criticisms before publishing them; and forprofessional organizations to help the public better understandpolling, market research, and other public opinion researchand their benefits to society.     

Following the "Mail Hawks": Alternative Measures of Public Opinion on Vietnam in the Johnson White House

Scholars argue that public opinion grew in importance duringthe Vietnam conflict, yet most find President Johnson was notresponsive to public opinion during the War. We amplify thesetheories by demonstrating the practical value of public opinionmail sent to the White House on Vietnam, reshaping theoriesabout the constraining role of public opinion in foreign policy.We find that the White House mail, but not opinion polling,favoring escalation of the War had a significant and positiveimpact on President Johnson's policy rhetoric. From these andsimilar findings, we conclude that the Johnson Administrationfollowed core "hawkish" political allies (those individualsdesiring a rapid escalation and quick end to the war) ratherthan those approving of a withdrawal, suggesting mail-gaugedopinion from electoral partners (and core political allies morebroadly) has value in foreign policy making.     

Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls

This article examines the relationship between President LyndonJohnson and those who take published polls. As his poll ratingsdeclined, Johnson used a number of methods to convince thosewith influence that he was more popular than the polls indicated.These methods included direct and indirect attacks on the polls,leaks of private polls, attempts to influence the results, andcourting the pollsters. The article argues that the last ofthese poses a danger to the objectivity of the pollsters. Secretlygiving advice to and taking private polls for a president areincompatible with the role of objective measurer of public opinion.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

Casting the 2000 U.S. Presidential Primaries

This article examines the 2000 U.S. presidential primaries as a case study in "casting" by early journalistic and polling choices. Casting is a strong series of candidate expectations expressed by news organizations early in campaigns. Often casting choices are based significantly on early polls (and campaign cash), and sometimes they can become self-fulfilling prophecies as campaign coverage and elections move forward.

The author argues that casting occurs in regularly scheduled and significant news stories. The news choices fulfill both organizational needs and the routines of dramatic storytelling. The researcher examined polls and news coverage in the primary season from January 1 until March 14, 2000. News coverage was determined by daily keyword searches on Lexis-Nexis for each of nine candidates. The researcher tracked not only overall news coverage, but also news attention per polling point. Casting was clear: Al Gore and George W. Bush as extensively-covered front runners, a "serious candidates" field covered more extensively than their initial poll numbers would seem to justify, and nearly invisible "immediate also-rans."     

Gender and Presidential Judicial Selection

Abstract

This study traces the gender-based patterns of judicial selection for four presidents from 1976 to 2000. The differences among the presidents are discussed in terms of the number of women they appointed, their selection process, and eligible pool, partisan and ideological considerations. Career and educational background characteristics of women judges appointed by Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, and Clinton are compared and clear differences emerge. The study concludes that women's paths to the federal bench have not changed much in the last 25 years and that women appointees appear to have “climbed” a judicial ladder that men have not.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

Private Polls and Presidential Policymaking: Reagan as a Facilitator of Change

Did the Reagan administration disregard majority will when craftingits policy initiatives? Did it cater to a narrow partisan constituencyinstead? The answers to these questions will help with an assessmentof Jacobs and Shapiro’s (2000b) hypothesis that presidentssince the late 1970s have used private White House survey researchas a tool to manipulate or assuage centrist public opinion whilemeeting the policy demands of their partisan core supporters,resulting in a decline in presidential responsiveness to majoritywill. Using the actual surveys administered by Richard Wirthlin(Reagan’s pollster) between 1981 and 1983, this articlewill demonstrate the level of consistency between majority opinionon 129 policy issues and Reagan’s behavior through 1984,and it will explore the conditions under which the presidentwas more or less likely to respond to public preferences. Thedata reveal that the Reagan administration was constrained bythe popular will in predicable ways: if the policy issues wereabout domestic concerns, highly popular, and visible in themedia, then the administration acted in line with public preferencesmore than 70 percent of the time. Further, Reagan and his adviserswere selective in responding to party activists: they championedissues drawn from their conservative ideological agenda thatfit with the current tide in public opinion, while sidesteppingother issues dear to party activists that encountered strongmajority resistance. While I do not contest Jacobs and Shapiro’s(2000b) important observation that presidents often use surveyresearch to "craft talk" in an attempt to channel the publicdebate, the evidence here highlights how the president nonethelessremains constrained by the popular will, at least on domesticissues.     

POLLING ON THE ISSUES PUBLIC OPINION AND THE NUCLEAR FREEZE

Throughout the first term of the Reagan administration, thenuclear freeze movement headlined the news and scored numerouspolitical victories. Hundreds of state and local governments,as well as the U.S. House of Representatives, passed resolutionsin support of the freeze. Public opinion polls played a majorrole in the debate, as the media and freeze advocates citednumerous polls indicating overwhelming public support for theinitiative. Yet a comprehensive and detailed examination ofnational polls reveals that public support for the freeze cameheavily qualified. While Americans expressed strong supportfor the basic concept of a freeze, they expressed doubts aboutthe possibility of a verifiable and balanced freeze agreement.Furthermore, the public doubted that the Soviet Union genuinelydesired such an agreement. Most surprisingly, the public didnot pay much attention to the debate. Few Americans claimedto know or care much about the freeze initiative, and fewerstill felt positively toward the political activists behindthe freeze.     

The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue fora wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies.In the end, the final estimates of the preelection polls, thebread and butter of the polling industry, were very good atsuggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner.In historical perspective, the overall performance was aboveaverage for the period since 1956. Issues raised in the medialeading up to the end of the campaign and the final estimates,however, created some controversy, especially about the likelyvoter methodology used by different organizations. There werealso some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firmsand collaborators ended up producing different estimates ofthe outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the modeof data collection.     

Rating the Polls: The Views of Media Elites and the General Public

To measure the credibility of the polls in 1984, Gallup conductedtwo surveys, one of the press and one of the general public.Results of the press survey indicated a favorable reaction tothe accuracy of the preelection polling in 1984, although therewas a division of opinion about whether the polls were betterat explaining the vote than predicting it, and whether the pollsenhanced or interfered with the electoral process. The public'sperception of the polls was a generally positive one both asto their accuracy and their overall effect.     

American Public Opinion in the 1930s and 1940s: The Analysis of Quota-Controlled Sample Survey Data

The 1930s saw the birth of mass survey research in America.Large public polling companies, such as Gallup and Roper, begansurveying the public about a variety of important issues ona monthly basis. These polls contain information on public opinionquestions of central importance to political scientists, historians,and policymakers, yet these data have been largely overlookedby modern researchers due to problems arising from the datacollection methods. In this article I provide a strategy toproperly analyze the public opinion data of the 1930s and 1940s.I first describe the quota-control methods of survey researchprevalent during this time. I then detail the problems introducedthrough the use of quota-control techniques. Next, I describespecific strategies that researchers can employ to amelioratethese problems in data analysis at both the aggregate and individuallevels. Finally, I use examples from several pubic opinion studiesin the early 1940s to show how the methods of analysis laidout in this article enable us to utilize historical public opiniondata.     

A Different Take on the Deliberative Poll: Information, Deliberation, and Attitude Constraint

Opinion pollsters, political scientists, and democratic theoristshave long been concerned with the normative and methodologicalimplications of nonattitudes (Converse 1964). Of the proposedremedies to the weak and labile attitudinal responses profferedby an uninformed and disinterested public, perhaps the mostambitious to date has been Fishkin’s concept of the deliberativepoll (Fishkin 1991, 1995, 1997). Combining probability samplingwith information intervention and increased deliberation affordsa unique insight into what might be considered the true "voiceof the people." Yet, while deliberative polling draws heavilyon the general notion of political sophistication (Luskin 1987),empirical analyses have tended to focus almost entirely on howthe process of deliberation impacts on marginal totals of attitudeitems at both the individual and aggregate level (Fishkin 1997;Luskin, Fishkin, and Jowell 2002; Sturgis 2003). Little attention,in contrast, has been paid to outcomes that relate to otherdimensions of opinion quality, such as attitude constraint.Constraint refers to the level of consistency between attitudeswithin an individual belief system that arises from a combinationof logical, social, and psychological factors (Converse 1964).In this article we analyze data from five deliberative pollsconducted in the United Kingdom in the 1990s in order to investigatethe impact of political information and deliberation on attitudeconstraint. Across a broad range of issue areas we evaluatethe extent to which the deliberative process impacts on statisticalassociations among attitude items between the first and subsequentwaves of the polls. We conclude by discussing the implicationsof our results for the validity and reliability of survey measuresof the attitude and the broader utility of the deliberativepolling method as a tool of social scientific inquiry.     

In God We Trust,with God We Fight. Religion in U.S. Presidential War Rhetoric: From Johnson to Obama

In times of war, religion features prominently in U.S. presidential rhetoric. It may be used to strengthen courage and hope or to serve as a powerful tool for accepting sacrifices and losses. In this article we examine the speeches of five presidents given specifically in periods of war: Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard M. Nixon, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Then we analyze variations in the volume and type of religious content among these presidents; we use a textual content analysis methodology to study a representative sample of speeches given by the above-mentioned presidents in time of war. We conclude that U.S. presidents try to persuade the audience that the country is going to war to accomplish God’s will. Under this light, religious rhetoric appears to have a higher correlation with the enemy being fought than with the personal convictions of each president.     

Horse-Race Journalism: Reporting the Polls in the 1976 Presidential Election

Reporting of public opinion polls conformed to a horse-raceimage of campaign reporting during the 1976 presidential election.Journalists avoided prediction, reported segments of the sample,selectively compared results, emphasized spectacles, questionedthe validity of polling, made a few mistakes, and ignored certaindata in their reporting. All these activities reinforced theimage of elections as a sporting event.     

The President's listening post: Nixon's failed experiment in government public relations

At the beginning of his first term, President Nixon engaged in an experiment to institutionalize and regularize a new channel for citizens to convey their views and ideas to the White House. He called it a President's Listening Post. The first one opened in Philadelphia to much hoopla and hopes in October 1969. Quickly, however, it became clear that the mechanism was not working as hoped. Trying to avoid political embarrassment, it was quietly shut down in early 1971. This article recounts the largely unknown experiment by the Nixon White House in presidential public relations.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.