Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections*

Objectives. A number of recent studies find that direct democracy increases voter turnout. In this article, we ask: Who does direct democracy mobilize to vote and how are they mobilized? We distinguish between long‐term and short‐term effects on voter turnout, noting that much of the current literature has focused on participatory theory. Methods. Our research design harnesses the power of geographic information systems and examines turnout in special initiative‐only elections using registered voter lists. Our model draws on individual and Census tract data, incorporated using a hierarchical generalized linear model. Results. The findings demonstrate how partisan context mitigates the potential for direct democracy to mobilize from the middle, and clarifies the dominance of short‐term as opposed to long‐term effects in increasing voter participation in ballot initiative elections. Conclusion. Mobilization via direct legislation occurs mostly because voters are actively mobilized by partisan campaigns, not because of an increase in participatory fervor.     

Electoral Support for Community Growth Management Policy*

Objectives. This study seeks to explain the variation in voter support for growth management policy. Interest group theory of local politics and property rights is used as a theoretical framework to explore how competing pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests influence the level of electoral support at the ballot box. Methods. Survey data collected from local planning officials in Massachusetts are analyzed using a two‐stage Heckman selection model. Results. The results indicate that development competition has a negative effect and controversy over development a positive effect on the probability of a community placing growth management policy on the local ballot. The analysis further indicates that environmental interests and suburban communities have a positive influence on the percentage of votes cast in favor of conservation‐oriented growth management policy. Neighborhood‐based interests, on the other hand, have a negative influence on voter support. Conclusions. The findings suggest that compared to the normal legislative process, ballot‐box voting allows anti‐growth and localized interests the opportunity to craft proposals and then mobilize support for policy changes.     

Dilemmas of Environmental Planning in Post‐Urban New Jersey*

Objective. New Jersey's state land‐use plan, designed to preserve open space by directing growth to urban centers, rests on the assumption that nature (the “environment”) and the urban constitute separate objective spheres, such that nature can be preserved as an end in itself. Through a spatial transformation that de‐populated the cities and suburbanized the countryside, however, the urban and the environmental have become overlapping discursive categories, each expressing the absence of the other, and raising serious dilemmas for environmental planning. Methods. This article uses Census data to document the extent of New Jersey's urban and racial transformation over more than half a century, and examines county and municipal reviews of the state's proposed land‐use plan to document the resulting contradictory interpretations of nature articulated in political debate over state‐plan implementation. Results. The attempt to forge a statewide consensus on environmental and open‐space preservation has been stymied by the contradictory perspectives of urban and suburban constituencies, whose responses focus on the urban rather than the environmental implications of proposed land‐use controls. State planners seeking political support for environmental protection find themselves embroiled in often vitriolic debates about urban and suburban lifestyles, with implicit racial subtexts, and about the legitimacy of state intervention perceived as supporting antithetical values. Conclusions. Contrary to the state's attempt to separate the urban and the environmental, the route to environmental protection in New Jersey may lie through urban revitalization.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.     

Legislating morality outside of the legislature: Direct democracy,voter participation and morality politics

Twenty-four states currently use some form of the initiative and referendum in an effort to give Americans the opportunity to make laws directly and vote on proposals given to them by their state legislatures. In one area in particular, morality policy, voters have historically used the ballot box to craft important and often controversial legislation. These have included items concerning gambling, alcohol, abortion, narcotics, obscenity and religion. This research examines two important aspects of the direct democracy issue: does the initiative and referendum increase voter participation in the states giving this option to voters and what is the impact on participation levels when morality issues are considered? For the first question a unique data set is developed to test voter turnout on ballot issues using the state as the unit of analysis. Results of this ordinary-least-squares analysis suggest direct democracy does increase voter turnout rates. In the second part of the analysis, however, several state ballots from 1972 to 2006 are analyzed suggesting that voter interest is strongest when they face morality issues. Hence, ‘legislating morality’ takes on a new meaning here since we commonly associate the phrase only with legislative institutions. As shown, over time citizens have been legislating morality directly in their own unique way. Theoretically, while advocates of direct democracy contend the process increases voter participation, it is argued here that the participation is often skewed toward certain morality issues and not toward issues as a whole. The data support this contention and raise normative questions concerning voters and their propensity to ‘legislate morality’.     

Race,Roll‐Off,and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections*

Objectives. Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll‐off as a city undergoes racial transition. Methods. Using a fixed‐effects regression model, we analyze the level of voter roll‐off (from the top‐of‐the‐ballot mayoral contest) among black and white voters across Memphis City Council elections, from 1967 through 2003. Results. The level of voter roll‐off among racial groups is sensitive to the racial aspect of political change. Black voters are most likely to continue to vote in council contests when there is a racial choice among candidates, when blacks have previously been elected, and when blacks occupy the mayoralty and a majority of council seats. Whites are most likely to vote in racially competitive council contests, as well as when there are a large number of white candidates, and when whites hold a majority of the council seats. Conclusions. In settings such as Memphis, where race has played a pronounced historic role, the racial context of political empowerment has a strong influence on electoral participation. Elections below the top‐of‐the‐ballot become more salient, and political efficacy grows among racial group members when that cohort occupies institutional positions, particularly the majority of positions in a governing institution.     

Participation in Voluntary Youth‐Serving Associations and Early Adult Voting Behavior*

Objective. We investigate adolescent membership in voluntary associations and whether participation in these activities influences voting behavior during early adulthood. Methods. Weighted logistic regression models predicting membership in voluntary associations and voting behavior were estimated using data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988–1994 (NELS). Results. Our findings suggest that membership in voluntary associations varies by race and socioeconomic status (SES). In addition, membership in organizations historically rooted in moral development and civic socialization positively predict voter‐registration status and whether or not young adults participated in the first national election that they were eligible to vote in, but this relationship is moderated by both race and SES. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of U.S. teenagers still participate in community‐based programs, many of which foster later civic participation, but that all youth do not equally benefit from participation.     

State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes*

Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.     

Online psychoeducation with parent management training: Examining the contribution of peer support

Psychoeducation is an empirically based intervention that is increasingly delivered online to individuals and groups. Low participation has been a problem for online designs that include peer support. New technology designs have been called for, and in response, we developed a model that synchronized the delivery of individual and group‐based psychoeducational activities for parent management training. We used a problem‐based learning strategy delivered to caregivers of youth demonstrating oppositional behaviours to encourage the development of helping processes and peer support. This mixed methods intervention study had high rates of participant retention and positive measurable changes for two of its three psychoeducational outcome measures. When we merged the study data, we observed that mutual aid—a frequently sought goal of group‐based interventions—contributed to participant outcomes.     

The Impact of Gentrification on Voter Turnout*

Objective. The goal of this article is to test between two competing theories (mobilization vs. destabilization) about the impact of gentrification on political participation. Methods. Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, Census data from 1990 and 2000, and a voter file for the City of Atlanta, we estimate a multilevel model of voter turnout. Results. Controlling for relevant individual and contextual factors, we find that gentrification decreases turnout among longstanding residents. Conclusions. Our findings provide support for the destabilization hypothesis and suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to soften the negative consequences of gentrification.     

Home run or strikeout: The dynamics of public opinion on new sports facilities

Determinants of political support for new sports facilities are explored. We test to what extent the civic attachment and civic optimism of a respondent promotes support for new facilities. Survey data from the 2005 CBS News/New York Times monthly poll were analyzed to find variables that affected public support for a new stadium for the New York Mets and a new arena for the New Jersey Nets. Whether New Yorkers’ were optimistic about the future of New York and whether they planned to continue living in New York had a significant impact on whether they supported new facilities. Demographic factors that frequently explain political differences did not have a significant effect. Respondents with greater civic attachment and optimism were more likely to support major sports projects. The findings open the door for additional research on how civic attachment and optimism impact the willingness of community residents to support major public projects.     

Agency‐Based Support: A “Last‐Resort” Strategy for Low‐Income Families?*

Objectives. Agency‐based support, defined as material assistance received from charities and private social service agencies, can constitute an important source of help for low‐income families. This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of agency‐based support and seeks to reveal whether it constitutes an alternative source of support for families whose personal networks can provide only limited assistance. Methods. Multivariate analyses were conducted using data from “Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three City Study,” a study of low‐income mothers living in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods. Results. Findings reveal that respondents with high levels of network support were significantly less likely to use agency‐based support. No association, however, was found with network burden, which led to rejecting the alternative hypothesis that people may use agency‐based support to limit their interactions with demanding network members. Conclusions. Overall, findings suggest that agency‐based support constitutes an alternative source of assistance for those who receive little or no support from family and friends. Policy implications in light of welfare reform are discussed.     

The Price Effects of Family Caps on Fertility Decisions of Poor Women

ABSTRACT

Family Caps have been a popular welfare reform policy designed to discourage women on welfare from bearing additional children. It has been thought that the principal mechanism through which a Cap achieves its objective of lower birth rates is the financial pressure placed on women by the denial of cash benefits. Our study uses instrumental variables Probit modeling to directly measure the contribution that price makes to Cap impact on births. We reexamine data from the New Jersey Family Development Program (n = 8,393) experiment and find that only a very small percentage (about 2.5%) of the overall Family Cap effect reported in earlier studies can be attributed to price. Moreover, the price effect holds only for short-term Black welfare recipients. We speculate that much of the unexplained Family Cap treatment effect stems from a message of social pressure and disapproval toward welfare receipt and childbearing on welfare. We offer a possible direction for future research which would directly measure the social disapproval component.     

Condorcet’s principle and the strong no-show paradoxes

We consider two no-show paradoxes, in which a voter obtains a preferable outcome by abstaining from a vote. One arises when the casting of a ballot that ranks a candidate in first place causes that candidate to lose the election, superseded by a lower-ranked candidate. The other arises when a ballot that ranks a candidate in last place causes that candidate to win, superseding a higher-ranked candidate. We show that when there are at least four candidates and when voters may express indifference, every voting rule satisfying Condorcet’s principle must generate both of these paradoxes.     

The relationship between ethnicity and fertility in New Zealand

While there is a global shift towards smaller families, some groups maintain relatively high fertility rates. The 2013 New Zealand census data were used to investigate the nature of fertility between ethnicities in New Zealand. The NZ Deprivation Index 2013 was used as a measure of socioeconomic status to determine the relationships with fertility. The results mirror research outside of New Zealand in that socioeconomic status is inversely correlated to fertility. Using crude average fertility rates, sole-ethnicity Pasifika and Māori ethnic groups still have substantially higher fertility than sole-ethnicity Europeans and Asians ethnic groups, even when simultaneously accounting for age, socioeconomic status, education, and religious affiliation. Christians have more children than individuals reportedly without any religion, and fertility rates drop on average for mothers who have higher formal qualifications. Our findings suggest that cultural, or other ethnic-specific factors differentially affect fertility for Māori, Pasifika, New Zealand European, and Asians as aggregated ethnic categories, respectively.     

A Long‐Term Disability Care and Support Scheme for Australia: Opportunities for Disability Sector Reform

Social insurance schemes in Australasia have a long‐standing involvement in leading systemic change as well as funding services for eligible scheme participants. Establishing a long‐term disability care and support scheme for Australia provides opportunities to remove barriers to community access and improve the employment participation of all Australians with a disability, and to increase the use of evidence in policy development and in the delivery of disability supports. Using the examples of successful models in Australia and New Zealand, the authors will propose a model for the development and management of a long‐term disability care and support scheme that enables sector reform in employment participation, barriers to access and participation in all aspects of community life, and funding of disability research to benefit all Australians with a disability.     

Varieties of failure of monotonicity and participation under five voting methods

In voting theory, monotonicity is the axiom that an improvement in the ranking of a candidate by voters cannot cause a candidate who would otherwise win to lose. The participation axiom states that the sincere report of a voter’s preferences cannot cause an outcome that the voter regards as less attractive than the one that would result from the voter’s non-participation. This article identifies three binary distinctions in the types of circumstances in which failures of monotonicity or participation can occur. Two of the three distinctions apply to monotonicity, while one of those and the third apply to participation. The distinction that is unique to monotonicity is whether the voters whose changed rankings demonstrate non-monotonicity are better off or worse off. The distinction that is unique to participation is whether the marginally participating voter causes his first choice to lose or his last choice to win. The overlapping distinction is whether the profile of voters’ rankings has a Condorcet winner or a cycle at the top. This article traces the occurrence of all of the resulting combination of characteristics in the voting methods that can exhibit failures of monotonicity.     

Social Movement Identity: Validating a Measure of Identification with the Environmental Movement*

Objective. We offer an empirical measure of “social movement identity” vis‐à‐vis the environmental movement. Our measure of environmental movement identity complements existing efforts to measure the ambiguous concept of “environmental identity.” Methods. We utilize data from a 2000 Gallup Poll of 1,004 adults to examine relationships between our measure of environmental movement identity and self‐reported membership in environmental organizations, assessments of the environmental movement, and self‐reported pro‐environmental behaviors. Results. The measure appears to have face validity, and our results suggest it also has construct and predictive validity since it is related to environmental organization memberships, assessments of the environmental movement, and self‐reported pro‐environmental behaviors—even when controlling for relevant sociopolitical characteristics. Conclusions. The measure is useful for analyses of the environmental movement, can be adapted for research on other movements, and can help social movement analysts respond to calls to investigate linkages between public opinion and movement dynamics.     

Regionalism,urbanism, and participation in the ministry: Blacks in the southern United States in the early twentieth century

This study examines Blacks’ participation in the ministry in the U.S. South during the early twentieth century. Analyses of Census data reveal that the odds of southern Blacks’ participation in the ministry were exceptionally high. These odds were lowest in the hinterlands of the Deep South, where Blacks’ socioeconomic disadvantages were greatest, and highest in the South's largest cities, where Blacks had established urban communities. The results suggest that support for Blacks’ participation in the ministry was intensified by urbanism in the South's major cities.