Innovation in a waste economy

Despite the creativity of British engineers, British industry continues to lack innovative drive because of a climate inimical to commercial success. Contemporary industrial economies, unlike that of Victorian Britain, are geared to produce rapidly consumed and discarded products. Victorian engineers sought primarily to add to society's stock of capital rather than to consumption, and their designs were intended to endure rather than to promote change. All were subject to scrutiny on strict commercial criteria as a measurement of their fitness for their intended purpose. This represents a change in what society demands of the engineer. The innovator is, in Britain, subject to particular discouragements in the form of: low prestige attached to engineering, inadequate financial provision for investment, high corporate and personal taxation and bureaucratic encumbrances by government. By contrast, to flourish, innovation requires leadership, reward, recognition, a flexible economy and a flexible workforce, and adequate and cheap capital.     

Reframing Resilience: Equitable Access to Essential Services

We urgently need to put the concept of resilience into practice if we are to prepare our communities for climate change and exacerbated natural hazards. Yet, despite the extensive discussion surrounding community resilience, operationalizing the concept remains challenging. The dominant approaches for assessing resilience focus on either evaluating community characteristics or infrastructure functionality. While both remain useful, they have several limitations to their ability to provide actionable insight. More importantly, the current conceptualizations do not consider essential services or how access is impaired by hazards. We argue that people need access to services such as food, education, health care, and cultural amenities, in addition to water, power, sanitation, and communications, to get back some semblance of normal life. Providing equitable access to these types of services and quickly restoring that access following a disruption are paramount to community resilience. We propose a new conceptualization of community resilience that is based on access to essential services. This reframing of resilience facilitates a new measure of resilience that is spatially explicit and operational. Using two illustrative examples from the impacts of Hurricanes Florence and Michael, we demonstrate how decisionmakers and planners can use this framework to visualize the effect of a hazard and quantify resilience-enhancing interventions. This “equitable access to essentials” approach to community resilience integrates with spatial planning, and will enable communities not only to “bounce back” from a disruption, but to “bound forward” and improve the resilience and quality of life for all residents.     

Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience

Communities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system‐wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time. To enable assessment of community sustainable resilience, we review current literature, consolidate available indicators and metrics, and develop a classification scheme and organizational structure to aid in identification, selection, and application of indicators within a dynamic assessment framework. A nonduplicative set of community sustainable resilience indicators and metrics is provided that can be tailored to a community's needs, thereby enhancing the ability to operationalize the assessment process.     

Our doctors are joining a labor union!

Are physicians going to join a union at your hospital, multi-specialty group, or HMO? Having recently lived through such an experience, the author shares the lessons that he has learned. This article outlines what physician executives need to do to prepare for the increasingly likely eventuality of physicians at their hospitals making a push for unionization. The best way to avoid a union is to manage people fairly, communicate with them constantly, and develop consensus for difficult decisions whenever possible. But if a petition lands on your desk, it is crucial to understand the laws governing union campaigns and the possible outcomes. From how to respond to a petition to election campaign strategies to the negotiation phase, physician executives need to be prepared for the very real possibility of physicians at their organizations deciding to unionize.     

Generic Assessment Endpoints Are Needed for Ecological Risk Assessment

This article presents arguments for the development of generic assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment. Generic assessment endpoints would be ecological entities and attributes that are assumed to be worthy of protection in most contexts. The existence of generic assessment endpoints would neither create a requirement that they be used in every assessment nor preclude the use of other assessment endpoints. They would simply be a starting point in the process of identifying the assessment endpoints for a particular assessment. They are needed to meet legal mandates, to provide a floor for environmental degradation, to provide some consistency in environmental regulation, as exemplars for site- or project-specific assessment endpoints, to allow development of methods and models, to give risk managers the courage to act, for screening and site-independent assessments, to support environmental monitoring, to facilitate communication, and to avoid paralysis by analysis. Generic assessment endpoints should include not only a list of entities and attributes, but also explanations of each endpoint, guidance on their use and interpretation, and measures and models that could be used to estimate them.     

Strategic planning as an organizational change process—Some guidelines from practice

Learning to cope with the problems and uncertainties created by today's changing business environment is a task which faces ever company. Coping with the challenge of change is not just a question of adapting or reacting to the changes, it may also involve taking new initiatives in relation to the environment itself in order to exploit the opportunities which exist.A company may need to make fundamental adjustments to its philosophy, strategies, organization and practices in order to meet the newer demands of the environment. A prime difficulty is that companies are rarely in a position to start from scratch, they have existing organizational arrangements, power distributions, well established strategies and vested interests all of which tend to resist any kind of change which is likely to upset the ‘status quo’. They also have to overcome outdated beliefs and norms if they are to progress.This article considers the use of a modified approach to strategic planning as a mechanism for helping a company to acquire the norms, organization and strategies needed to cope with today's business environment. It is based on experience gained in helping to re-organize business enterprises engaged in textiles, steel tube manufacture, light engineering, distribution (world wide) and vehicle sales and servicing and also the Government of Jersey, Channel Islands.     

Morphology: A tool for exploring new technology

New products, new services and new approaches to doing business may be essential in order to return to a period of long term economic prosperity. A particularly powerful approach to innovation is the technique called ‘morphology’. Kondratieff's use of the morphology technique to analyse business cycles, and also an original use of morphology to analyse the categories of existence, are here applied to deduce office worker archetypes and significant business management issues as a function of economic phase. The economic phases of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery are related to the following business management issues: productivity, time management, innovation and management by objectives. These issues correspond, respectively, to the following office worker archetypes: information worker, skill worker, knowledge worker and decision maker.     

Don't fix it

Next to doing nothing, fixing a problem is often the worst thing you could do with it. Fix a problem but miss the context, and you still have the problem--only it's bigger, it's weirder, it costs more, and everybody's grumpy. When something comes at you with a "problem" label, use it as an opportunity to connect things up, to explore, to ask the bigger questions, to find the new possibilities. When we react to a problem, we put ourselves into a dilemma. To find fruitful and creative solutions, we need to be in a place of choice, with many possibilities. Real participation--giving people real choice--is the only way you can bring people's intelligence and life experiences to bear on the situation at hand.     

Bringing IT Back: An Analysis of the Decision to Backsource or Switch Vendors

Whereas the decision to outsource information systems (IS) has been an important focus in IS research and practice, the decision to switch vendors or to backsource has received little attention. Evidence suggests that in practice, however, the decision to backsource or to switch vendors is becoming increasingly common as firms vie for ways to continue to cut information technology (IT) costs and improve IT service levels. This research specifically examines the factors associated with the decision to backsource or to switch vendors. Based on a sample of 160 IT managers involved with application development, we compare and contrast the perceptions of those who switched vendors, backsourced, or continued in an outsourcing relationship for application development. Our findings suggest that product quality, service quality, relationship quality, and switching costs are related to the decision to backsource application outsourcing. However, service and product quality did not influence the decision to switch vendors. Rather, firms that made the decision to switch vendors reported high levels of service and product quality but low levels of relationship quality and switching costs.     

Physician anger--Part 1. Changing perception: an interview with Charles E. Dwyer, PhD. Interview by Richard L. Reece.

On January 21, Richard Reece, MD, interviewed Charles E. Dwyer, PhD, to talk about solutions for changing the perceptions of today's beleaguered physicians. He discusses the state of affairs of physician executives in this turbulent industry and how they need to move beyond their thinking about organizations and their current responses to change. The key, Dwyer emphasizes, is influencing people to do what you want them to do. "If you want somebody to do something other than what they are doing now, then you must bring them to perceive that what you want them to do is better than what they are doing now in terms of what is important to them." He also explores how physicians can change their responses to the health care environment: "You can actually decide how you are going to respond conceptually, emotionally, and behaviorally to anything that happens in your life." Part 2 of this interview will appear in the upcoming May/June issue and will provide hands-on strategies for dealing with physician anger, fear, and resentment.     

Some aspects of price strategy

A firm's success, within a rapidly growing and dynamic market, depends upon its ability to respond to market demand and to react to competitive forces. A key factor determining success is the pricing policy employed by the firm. Product pricing, however, is not simple; supply and demand, as well as the interaction and reaction of competitors, must be taken into consideration. By simulating a competitive market environment, however, a firm should be able to evaluate different pricing strategies prior to employing a strategy in practice. The goal of this research was to propose a simulation model to serve this purpose. Particularly, the objective was to demonstrate that if an industry can be characterized as one in which cost as well as price decline with cumulative volume, a pricing policy leading to market dominance exists. A simulation model is desirable for evaluating the proper pricing strategy for achieving such a market position.     

Managing Nuclear Waste from Power Plants

National strategies to manage nuclear waste from commercial nuclear power plants are analyzed and compared. The current strategy is to try to operate a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to dispose of high-level nuclear waste underground. The main alternatives involve temporary above-ground storage at a centralized facility or next to nuclear power plants. If either of these is pursued now, the analysis assumes that a repository will be built in 2100 for waste not subsequently put to use. The analysis treats various uncertainties: whether a repository at Yucca Mountain would be licensed, possible theft and misuse of the waste, innovations in repository design and waste management, the potential availability of a cancer cure by 2100, and possible future uses of nuclear waste. The objectives used to compare alternatives include concerns for health and safety, environmental and socioeconomic impacts, and direct economic costs, as well as equity concerns (geographical, intergenerational, and procedural), indirect economic costs to electricity ratepayers, federal government responsibility to manage nuclear waste, and implications of theft and misuse of nuclear waste. The analysis shows that currently building an underground repository at Yucca Mountain is inferior to other available strategies by the equivalent of $10,000 million to $50,000 million. This strongly suggests that this policy should be reconsidered. A more detailed analysis using the framework presented would help to define a new national policy to manage nuclear waste.     

基于头脑风暴原则的主观证据融合决策方法

为了解决证据源是主观的或者客观证据源因无法获取有效信息而不得不寻求主观经验、知识、直觉帮助的决策问题,采用基于互补判断的相对估计方式构建了能够提取决策专家主观推断信息的柔性知识矩阵,给出了由柔性知识矩阵向BPA函数转化的主观证据提取模型,在此基础上将头脑风暴方法中的延迟评判、独立思考、以量求质、结合改善四项原则引入到主观证据的提取过程之中,构建了可以从识别框架中辨识出可能为最优方案的融合决策方法,最后分别应用数值对比分析和案例模拟分析验证了提出方法的科学有效性和应用可行性。     

The death of mourning: from Victorian crepe to the little black dress

Mourning is a natural response to loss. In the late eighteenth century and throughout the nineteenth century, in England and France, the bereaved was expected to follow a complex set of rules, particularly among the upper classes, with women more bound to adhere to these customs than men. Such customs involved wearing heavy, concealing, black costume and the use of black crepe veils. Special black caps and bonnets were worn with these ensembles. Widows were expected to wear these clothes up to four years after their loss to show their grief. Jewelry often made of dark black jet or the hair of the deceased was used. To remove the costume earlier was thought disrespectful to the deceased. Formal mourning culminated during the reign of Queen Victoria. Her prolonged grief over the death of her husband, Prince Albert, had much to do with the practice. During the succeeding Edwardian rule, the fashions began to be more functional and less restrictive, but the dress protocol for men and women, including that for the period of mourning, was still rigidly adhered to. When World War I began, many women joined the workforce. Most widows attempted to maintain the traditional conventions of mourning, but with an increase in the number of casualties, it became impractical for them to interrupt their work in order to observe the seclusion called for by formal mourning etiquette. Never had the code of mourning been less strictly applied than during this period. The mourning outfits of the time were modest and made of practical materials. Little jewelry and few other accessories were used. Certain aspects of traditional mourning were still followed, such as the use of jet beading, crepe trim, and widows' caps. However, the hemlines fell above the ankle, the veil was used to frame the face instead of cover it, and the v-neckline left the chest and neck bare. During the following decades, gradually the rules were relaxed further and it became acceptable for both sexes to dress in dark colors for up to a year after a death in the family.     

Science for Policy: A Case Study of Scientific Polarization,Values, and the Framing of Risk and Uncertainty

It is well documented that more research can lead to hardened positions, particularly when dealing with complex, controversial, and value‐laden issues. This study is an attempt to unveil underlying values in a contemporary debate, where both sides use scientific evidence to support their argument. We analyze the problem framing, vocabulary, interpretation of evidence, and policy recommendations, with particular attention to the framing of nature and technology. We find clear differences between the two arguments. One side stress that there is no evidence that the present approach is causing harm to humans or the environment, does not ruminate on uncertainties to that end, references nature's ability to handle the problem, and indicates distrust in technological solutions. In contrast, the other side focuses on uncertainties, particularly the lack of knowledge about potential environmental effects and signals trust in technological development and human intervention as the solution. Our study suggests that the two sides’ diverging interpretations are tied to their perception of nature: vulnerable to human activities versus robust and able to handle human impacts. The two sides also seem to hold diverging views of technology, but there are indications that this might be rooted in their perception of governance and economy rather than about technology per se. We conclude that there is a need to further investigate how scientific arguments are related to worldviews, to see how (if at all) worldview typologies can help us to understand how value‐based judgments are embedded in science advice, and the impact these have on policy preferences.     

基于服务化的制造企业与服务提供商的演化博弈分析

制造企业从传统制造向服务型制造转变是其转型升级、提升竞争力的重要路径之一。而企业在转型过程中受自身资源约束,往往需要服务提供商的配合。本文在构建制造企业与服务企业的收益函数基础上,建立两方非对称演化博弈模型,探究制造企业与服务提供商合作实施服务化策略的规律,并运用MATLAB仿真,深入研究相关因素对制造企业与服务提供商合作实施服务化策略的影响作用。研究表明,制造企业对服务提供商所提供服务的依赖度、服务化制造企业与未服务化制造企业间的差异化竞争度、双方合作前后的收益和成本、合作不成功造成的损失、收益的分配等因素是合作意愿的重要影响因素,且差异化竞争度比服务依赖度对合作意愿的影响作用更强烈、与收益相比博弈主体对成本的变化更敏感、服务提供商更易动摇合作的意愿、存在最优的收益分配系数使制造企业与服务提供商采取合作策略的意愿最强。     

授权决策的期权特征与模型解析

本文利用实物期权方法对授权决策的核心问题——授权时机和授权对象的选择——进行了研究。首先分析了授权决策的期权特征,对授权决策中存在的实物期权进行了总结;然后构建了授权决策的实物期权模型,分别计算出了授权决策的期权价值和授权时员工对公司的人力资本价值,由此得出了一个可比性的授权决策标准,即临界业绩水平,从而简化了决策指标,提高了信息的利用率,使企业可以对特质各异的候选人进行准确比较,并分三种授权决策情形分别给出了决策方案,最后基于数值算例作出了进一步的解析。     

A multi-user tool for enhancing the daily replanning and control of visits in home care services

The uncertainty associated with patients’ demands and operators’ availabilities is the main complexity factor in planning health care activities. Thus, activity replanning is required to react to the variations and to guarantee a good service quality. A particularly complex replanning activity is required in Home Care (HC) services, where any variation to the plans involves several decisions related, e.g. to nurses’ travels. Such complexity makes impossible for planners to integrate and to effectively handle all of the information in real time with the classical HC management tools. In this work, we design, implement and validate a new visualisation tool to support HC planners in handling the data, to better perform their replanning activities. The tool consists of a desk equipped with an interactive map, where up to four planners can manage the information together in a multilayer configuration. This solution allows to manage the high amount of data in a more effective and natural way than the tabular form of the current commercial tools, due to both the horizontal map visualisation and the multilayer information provisioning. The prototype has been tested with real HC planners and expert users; outcomes show the capability to meet the gap between planners and information complexity, and to provide adequate support for replanning HC activities.