“单独二孩”政策的利与弊

"单独二孩"政策有利有弊,其直接意义在于缓解"一个孩子"政策所带来的问题。该政策的积极效果表现在:可以适当提高生育水平;适当缓解中国人口年龄结构的老化;群众有更多自主选择生育的权利;家庭结构得到平衡发展;缓解出生人口漏报;缓解出生性别比过度偏高;缓解人口素质逆淘汰;推动计划生育工作综合改革。然而,由于政策的调整在一定程度上仍然属于"硬着陆",必然会带来一些问题,主要包括:近几年会出现符合单独二孩政策夫妇的集中生育;很多高危人群生育会导致孕产妇死亡率上升和出生缺陷发生率的上升;政策调整本身就带来了生育的不公平或机会的不平等。建议:用奖励的方式鼓励年轻妇女晚生育第二个孩子;设立高危妊娠咨询和指导中心;政府为无机会和能力再生育的家庭承担更多责任。     

企业员工职业压力对育儿情绪的影响

职业压力引发家长育儿时的消极情绪，成为影响孩子良好成长的主要因素，结果导致员工的工作生活失衡。本文探讨了家长的情绪对儿童情绪培养的影响机制，并研究了职业压力与育儿情绪的关系。采用问卷调查的方法，调查了105名高新技术产业的员工，运用SPSS进行数据分析，结果发现职业压力与父母的消极育儿情绪正相关；关系压力是职业压力中导致家长育儿消极情绪的主要维度；父亲和母亲在受到工作压力下表现的消极育儿情绪存在显著性差异。由此提出了缓解职业压力和对育儿情绪进行管理的有效方法，从而帮助家长提高育儿质量，进而提高员工的工作生活质量。     

The Estimation of Fertility Effects on Happiness: Even More Difficult than Usually Acknowledged

There have been many studies of how the number of children in a family affects the parents’ or the children’s lives. One strand of this research focuses on the implications of fertility for the parents’ level of self-reported well-being or happiness. It is argued in this paper that an overall “happiness effect” is not very informative because of the presumably large variation in individuals’ perceived gains from having children. Furthermore, it is explained that such an effect would be difficult to estimate. Most importantly, the highly varying ideas about how a child will affect life quality are important for the decision about whether to have a child. Many of those who have few or no children have chosen this because they think their life will be best this way, and their happiness therefore tells us little about how happy their more fertile counterparts—who to a large extent have different views about the consequences of childbearing—would have been if they had few or no children. This estimation problem that arises when effects of a certain event (here childbearing) are heterogeneous, and the individuals who experience that event tend to be among those for whom the effects are particularly positive or negative, is acknowledged in the treatment effect literature. However, there is little consciousness about it in the fertility–happiness research. In addition, there is a more “standard” selection problem: factors with implications for childbearing desires, or for the chance of fulfilling these, may also affect or be linked to happiness for other reasons. Unfortunately, even the most advanced statistical approaches that have been used in this research area fail to handle all these problems, so reported results should be interpreted very cautiously.     

The impact of first-birth timing on divorce: New evidence from a longitudinal analysis based on the central population register of Norway

The association between divorce risks in first marriage and the timing of the first birth is inspected in a life-table analysis of registered birth and marriage histories from Norway. One of the main conclusions is that the high propensity to divorce among women who have had a premarital birth is not confined to those who marry someone other than the father of their child. Also, women who have had a premarital child with their husband, run a much higher risk of marital breakup than do those who had their first baby in wedlock. The relative difference between these two groups, which appears to be particularly large at the beginning of marriage, has decreased during the last two decades. It is argued that couples who postpone childbearing beyond two years of marriage may have particularly low divorce rates.     

How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe

The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.     

Wanting a Child Without a Firm Commitment to the Partner: Interpretations and Implications of a Common Behaviour Pattern among Norwegian Cohabitants

Further knowledge of combined birth and marriage intentions among cohabiting couples will improve our understanding of the nature of consensual unions and be important from a policy perspective. According to Norwegian surveys from 1988 and 1996, about 1/3 of the births to cohabiting couples are mistimed. Among the remainder, between 1/2 and 3/4 are to couples who at least have no intention to marry within the next couple of years. The most radical estimate, based on the most recent survey, is that there are three equally large categories of births to cohabiting couples: mistimed births, intended births to couples planning marriage, and intended births to couples with no marriage plans whatever. The 1996 survey also revealed that a clear majority of these couples who appear to want a child without planning marriage, explain this attitude partly by the less easy dissolution of a marriage. In other words, their consensual union is indeed considered different from marriage in terms of commitment and stability and they may have concerns about the quality of the relationship. There were weak indications that cohabitants with an intended birth in the absence of marriage plans were less likely than others to consider a parental break-up to be very deleterious for the child.     

Racing Against the Biological Clock? Childbearing and Sterility Among Men and Women in Second Unions in France

In developed countries, rising rates of union disruption have induced an increase in the share of people experiencing several fertile partnerships during their fertile life-span. However, from the large-scale 1999 French Family Survey, in the 1939–1954 birth cohorts it appears that completed fertility of repartnered men is slightly higher than that of never-separated men while repartnered women have fertility levels similar to those who remain in a first intact partnership. Following this observation, this article aims to study whether people, and especially women, have enough time to have children in the context of second union before they become limited by the “biological clock”. Using a cure model, we find that once age-related sterility is controlled for, the decrease in risk of having children with age is not visible anymore up to age 40. This offers some evidence that people in their second partnership, especially women, are constrained in their childbearing by the decline in fecundity with age. Additionally, childless women seem to respond proactively to the decline in fecundity with age by accelerating childbearing.     

当代研究生生育观调查——以南开大学为例

为了解当代研究生生育观的一般状况,对南开大学在校研究生进行了问卷调查研究,表明绝大多数研究生愿意生育、没有性别偏好、理想子女数目是2个、初育年龄在26～35岁之间,生育间隔期望是3～4年、对孩子素质的期望是全方位的.总体上看,研究生的生育观呈现出现代性特征,更重视孩子的精神价值,尤其是对个人自我发展和家庭生活幸福的精神价值,同时又受到传统生育文化的某些影响.     

The timing of first birth

“The timing of first birth” is taken to mean the distribution of first births among a cohort of women. (1) How large is the final proportion of women who have at least one birth and (2) what is the distribution of women by age at first birth? “The percentage of non-fecund women” and “the age-specific risk for a fecund woman of remaining childless” are useful parameters in predicting final childlessness. These parameters are estimated. It is found that the risk of a fecund woman remaining childless is substantial even at the most common childbearing age. The effect of postponement of births on final childlessness is demonstrated and quantified. It is shown that the higher level of childlessness among women with long education can be explained by postponement of childbearing. The expression “later means fewer” is also true for first births. A method of predicting first birth rates, presented earlier by the author, is discussed and shown to give a good fit to Swedish data.     

品牌关系质量对消费者宽恕意愿影响研究

基于品牌关系质量理论,从品牌关系强度、品牌关系持续度和品牌关系干扰度三个维度,构建了过失型食品伤害危机情境下食品企业品牌关系质量对消费者宽恕意愿影响的理论模型,采集414份消费者数据,使用结构方程模型对消费者宽恕意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果发现,品牌依赖、品牌亲密、品牌承诺和品牌忠诚对消费者宽恕意愿具有不同程度的正向显著影响,其中,品牌忠诚是最重要影响因素,品牌承诺是第二重要影响因素;品牌风险和品牌伤害对消费者宽恕意愿有着不同程度的负向显著影响,其中品牌伤害比品牌风险对消费者宽恕意愿的负向作用更显著。     

Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition

Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased demand for wealth that can, under some conditions, lead to increased capital per worker and higher per capita consumption. This article is based on an overlapping generations (OLG) model which highlights the quantity–quality tradeoff and the links between human capital investment and economic growth. It incorporates new national level estimates of human capital investment produced by the National Transfer Accounts project. Simulation analysis is employed to show that, even in the absence of the capital dilution effect, low fertility leads to higher per capita consumption through human capital accumulation, given plausible model parameters.     

出生人口性别比失调的法制因素探讨

针对我国近年来出生人口性别比失调现象,从法制的角度,分析了我国社会转型期的相关法律、法规,认为相关法律、法规不能有效调整人们的行为或者立法落后、缺乏社会性别意识,强化了人们"重男轻女"的观念,从而成为出生人口性别比失调的制度性因素.在分析的基础上,提出了相应的对策性建议.     

Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)

In the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation and fertility instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents’ opportunities to combine work and family life.     

农民养老模式选择意愿及其影响因素——基于甘肃146份问卷数据

基于146份问卷调查数据,建立有序Probit模型对甘肃省农民养老模式选择意愿进行实证研究。结果表明:甘肃省农民倾向于选择以社会养老为主体的多支柱养老模式;年龄、健康状况、子女是否参与新农保、家庭人均年收入、社区养老政策宣传、养老需要提高生活质量等变量对其养老模式选择意愿正向影响显著;家庭子女人数及养老需要保障基本生活等变量则负向影响显著。     

Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

Main and Interaction Effects of Women's Education and Status on Fertility: The Case of Tanzania

The analysis is based on individual 1996 TDHS data combined withaggregate data from the 1988 census and the 1991/1992 TDHS. When varioussources of spuriousness are taken into account, it is found that giving awoman more education reduces her fertility much less than suggested byunivariate tabulations of the total fertility rate. Expansion of primaryeducation contributes to only a slightly higher age at first birth, and theeffect on higher-order birth rates is not significant. Changes in post-partum insusceptibility outweigh those in fertility desires and use ofmodern contraception among women not wanting an additional child.Secondary school enrollment influences fertility more markedly, inparticular because of a later first birth. Effects of women's status areestimated in models for actual fertility as well as fertility desires, post-partum insusceptibility and contraceptive use, using up to six macro- ormicro-level indicators. All significant effects suggest that empowerment ofwomen will tend to push fertility down, net of education. The significantinteractions between women's status and education point in differentdirections, but a majority of them indicate that education has the mostpronounced effect on fertility in the more egalitarian regions and amongwomen with relatively high individual status.     

Childbearing Trends in Sweden 1961--1997

The purpose of this paper is to update a system of annual indices of birth rates and to display trends in childbearing for Swedish women over the years since 1961. Our indices are produced by applying indirect standardization to register data. They enable us to decompose the overall fertility trends, as measured by the period TFR, into its birth-order specific components. Swedish fertility has shown strong fluctuations during our study period and these fluctuations have been particularly dramatic during recent years. A postponement of the age at first birth and a sudden shift to shorter birth intervals are important components in the fertility trends. A peak in the level of childbearing at the beginning of the present decade has now been followed by a sharp drop in the propensity to give birth. This change in behaviour pertains to women of all parities.     

Religion, Religiousness and Fertility in the US and in Europe

This article aims to assess the role of religion and religiousness in engendering higher US fertility compared to Europe. Religion is important in the life of one-half of US women, whereas not even for one of six Europeans. By every available measure, American women are more religious than European women. Catholic and Protestant women have notably higher fertility than those not belonging to any denomination in the US and across Europe. In all European regions and in the United States as well as among all denominations the more devout have more children. However, women in Northern and Western Europe who are the least religious have equivalent or even higher fertility than women in the US, and notably higher fertility than those in Southern Europe. This suggests that forces other than religion and religiousness are also important in their impact on childbearing. A multivariate analysis demonstrates that relatively “traditional” socio-economic covariates (age, marital status, residence, education, and income) do not substantially change the positive association of religiousness and fertility. Finally, if Europeans were as religious as Americans one might theoretically expect a small fertility increase for Europe as a whole, but considerably more for Western Europe.     

常州市育龄人群生育意愿及影响因素

基于调查研究数据,对常州市育龄人群的理想子女数、性别偏好和预期初育年龄进行了定量分析,并对不同特征人群的理想子女数进行对比研究。结果表明,常州市育龄人群不存在明显的生育性别偏好,少生晚生已成为其自觉自愿的选择。     

多元化的盈余质量效应:中国上市公司的证据

公司多元化会带来更大的信息不对称和更高的代理成本,预期将表现为较低的盈余质量。采集2000～2008年中国资本市场的面板数据,选择盈余管理、应计质量、盈余稳健性、盈余价值相关性、盈余持续性和资产减值计提水平六个盈余质量指标对此假设进行了检验。实证结果发现,相对地区多元化,行业多元化具有显著的盈余质量效应,公司行业多元化程度越高,则其盈余质量越低,表现为更高的操纵性应计、更低的稳健性水平及更低的盈余价值相关性。这为多元化的代理成本与多元化折价找到了新的证据与解释,证券市场监管部门应更加关注多元化公司的盈余质量及其盈余管理动机、方式和影响。