Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence

A basic assumption of the Cornell Mobility Model insofar as it is relevant to inter-community migration is that an individual’s propensity to move is a function of, among other things, his length of residence in the community. Parameters of the functional relationship of migration probabilities to duration status are estimated from migration histories for a sample of residents in Monterrey, Mexico, and compared with estimates reported by P. A. Morrison using data from Amsterdam, The Netherlands. In both data sets a negative nonlinear relation of the probability of migrating to duration status, as well as an interaction between age and duration status, is found. Values of parameters describing the relation within age groups differ sufficiently between the two data sets, however, to suggest that further specification of conditions under which a particular form of functional relation will obtain is necessary if the model is to be useful in migration research.     

Immigration, ethnicity and voluntary association membership in Canada: Individual and contextual effects

Using multilevel models fitted to data collected by Statistics Canada and the Canadian Census, this paper assesses the individual and contextual influences of immigration and ethnicity on voluntary association membership. Our analysis is unique in two ways: (1) we explore the effects of both immigrant status and ethnicity at the individual level, and (2) we assess the role of both the immigrant population and the visible minority population at the community level. Our results demonstrate that the probability of holding an association membership increases as the time since immigration passes. We also find ethnic differences in the probability of membership, though these differences have little to do with visible minority group status. On the other hand, the contextual effects of immigration and visible minorities stand in contrast to these individual-level effects. More specifically, the probability of membership tends to be largest in communities with many immigrants but smallest in communities with many visible minorities. Consistent with Putnam's constrict thesis, these contextual effects operate in a similar manner for immigrants and native born citizens. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Community size preference status,community satisfaction and migration intentions

Increasing attention has been directed to the effect of cognitive factors on migration decision making. We evaluate the influence of community size preference status and six domains of community satisfaction on migration intentions per se and short- vs. longterm migration intentions, separately, simultaneously, and with controls on community involvement and social position. The data are from a 1988 statewide migration survey of 851 Utahns. Separate multivariate analyses are conducted for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan residents. Satisfaction/dissatisfaction with selected features of community life primarily impacts migration intentions per se while community size preference status dominates the time frame of migration intentions.     

Health Selection,Migration, and HIV Infection in Malawi

Despite its importance in studies of migrant health, selectivity of migrants—also known as migration health selection—has seldom been examined in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This neglect is problematic because several features of the context in which migration occurs in SSA—very high levels of HIV, in particular—differ from contextual features in regions that have been studied more thoroughly. To address this important gap, we use longitudinal panel data from Malawi to examine whether migrants differ from nonmigrants in pre-migration health, assessed via SF-12 measures of mental and physical health. In addition to overall health selection, we focus on three more-specific factors that may affect the relationship between migration and health: (1) whether migration health selection differs by destination (rural-rural, rural-town, and rural-urban), (2) whether HIV infection moderates the relationship between migration and health, and (3) whether circular migrants differ in pre-migration health status. We find evidence of the healthy migrant phenomenon in Malawi, where physically healthier individuals are more likely to move. This relationship varies by migration destination, with healthier rural migrants moving to urban and other rural areas. We also find interactions between HIV-infected status and health: HIV-infected women moving to cities are physically healthier than their nonmigrant counterparts.     

The legacies of context: Past and present influences on contraceptive choice in Nang Rong,Thailand

This study explores the ways in which women's contraceptive behavior in a rural area of Thailand is shaped by both past and present context, based on the life course framework. Although the importance of contextual influences for contraceptive behavior is well established in the literature, relatively little research has been conducted that explores how behavior is influenced by historical and contemporaneous contextual factors and by individual life experiences. In addition, much of this research has neglected the role of the normative environment within which contraceptive use takes place. The focus of this paper centers on the effect of contraceptive environment at both early and late stages of the life course and on how this effect is shaped by individual experience with migration to urban areas. This study takes advantage of a unique, prospective longitudinal data set with detailed information on community context at multiple points in time, an important improvement upon prior research. The results show that contraceptive behavior is particularly responsive to current community context, with past context primarily exerting an indirect effect on behavior through shaping current contextual influences.     

Household and Contextual Indicators of Poverty in Tunisia: A Multilevel Analysis

Using micro data from the 2010 National Survey on Households’ Budget, Consumption and Standard of Living, this study aims to investigate main factors contributing to poverty distribution, one of the most severe socioeconomic problems in Tunisia. To this end, we use a multilevel Logit model and a multilevel mixed linear model to simultaneously analyze the micro-level (household) and macro-level (governorate) factors that might affect the household poverty status. Household size, household composition, occupation, education levels, the gender of the household head and the number of earner by household variables were assessed at the micro-level. Unemployment rate, poverty rate, industrial and agriculture parts and the migration are included to control the effect of contextual effects. Our findings showed that the likelihood of household being poor is positively and significantly related to household size, more children and lower education level. Extreme poverty is more likely to occur in rural than urban areas. Macro-level analyses indicated that greater neighbourhood unemployment rate was associated with higher odds of poverty, while greater industrial agglomeration and migration balance were associated with reduced odds of poverty.     

Does it Take a Village? Migration among Rural South African Youth

In a rural African context, the saying, “it takes a village to raise a child,” suggests that community characteristics are substantially important in children’s lives as they transit to adulthood. Are these contextual factors also related to youth migration? Demographers are uncertain about how community characteristics improve our understanding of an individual’s propensity to migrate, beyond individual and household factors. In many low- and middle-income country settings, youth become migrants for the first time in their lives to provide access to resources that their families need. We employ discrete-time event history models from 2003 to 2011 Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa to test whether markers of development in a village are associated with the likelihood of youth and young adults migrating, distinguishing between becoming temporary and permanent migrants during this critical life cycle phase. We find that village characteristics indeed differentially predict migration, but not nearly as substantially as might be expected.     

Variations in interstate migration of men across the early stages of the life cycle

The results reported here show that the stage of an individual's life cycle not only has direct effects on the likelihood of migration, but also establishes a context within which the motives to migrate are evaluated and acted upon. One contextual impact of the life cycle concerns the effects of length of residence on migration. The results show that the probability of migrating declines more rapidly over time for married males with children than for singles males--i.e., the difference between the likelihood of migration for single males and married males with children widens with increasing length of residence. Much of this difference may be due to the greater number and strength of community ties for individuals who are married with children. These ties are not well developed at the beginning of a residence but continue to strengthen over the course of a residence. In addition, there are variations in the levels of job rewards and location-specific resources across the life cycle and there are two variations across the early life cycle in the effects of independent variables on the initial rate of migration. One resource (self-employment) and one job reward (prestige) have different effects for single individuals than for either group of married males. If the span of the life cycle considered in this analysis were broadened to include older men, additional differences in the effects of independent variables might be uncovered. In research with cross-sectional data containing a wider range of ages than the data used here, Heaton et al. (1981) found that economic variables were more important in determining the migration of younger individuals than that of older individuals, whereas noneconomic factors were more important determinants of the migration of older than of younger individuals. The results of this paper and Heaton's results suggest that at different stages of life people use a somewhat different "subjective cost-benefit calculus" in making migration decisions. The importance of certain migration determinants may vary significantly depending on whether an individual is married, whether he or she has children, and/or whether he or she is in the labor force or retired. Additional research on these issues could greatly contribute to our understanding of migration.     

Multilevel Models of Fertility Determination in Four Southeast Asian Countries: 1970 and 1980

Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies--Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women's status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women's status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.     

Parameter estimates from mark-recapture experiments on two populations subject to migration and death

Summary A model is developed for a triple catch marking experiment on two areas with migration between the two areas and death or emigration occurring. Estimates of the parameters of the model are derived. Some of these estimates are shown to be suitable even under certain restrictions on migration (e.g. animals may be restricted to a single transfer in the course of the experiment). Variances of the estimates were not derived but some rules were developed, based on computer simulations, to guide the experimenter in planning experiments and in judging the precision of his estimates.     

Predictors of stress and depressive mood in Portuguese middle-aged women

ABSTRACT

This cross-sectional study investigates the predictors of psychological symptoms—stress and depressive mood—in a sample of middle-aged women. A community sample of 1,003 women filled in the questionnaires and instruments, which included the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales and the Life Events Survey; sociodemographic, health, and menopause-related and lifestyle information was also collected. Structural equation modeling was used to build the model that had stress and depressive mood as dependent variables. Health status (both physical and psychological), recent life events, income and menopausal phase were significantly associated with the frequency of stress and depressive symptoms. Additionally, educational level and parity were also significant predictors of depressive mood. This study emphasizes that psychological symptoms occurrence in midlife depends not only on personal variables (such as health and menopausal status) but also on contextual ones (including recent stressful events) that can be a strong influence on how middle-aged women feel.     

Residential independence among older persons: community and individual factors

The objective of this study is to evaluate an expanded version of the resource model of living arrangements among older persons. This expanded model includes community-level measures of geriatric health services and housing market conditions. We employ the first two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households to test static and longitudinal fixed effects models of residential living arrangements. We find that residing in areas with higher levels of geriatric health care services increases the likelihood of residential independence, net of other contextual factors and individual characteristics. Our results show that housing market conditions are not related to levels of or changes in residential independence when control variables are included in the models. The results for the individual-level resource variables show that persons with greater economic resources, more children, and better functional status are better able to maintain independence and are less likely to die or live in a nursing home. This study shows the utility of expanding on micro-level approaches to understanding community living arrangements among older persons. Future investigations should include measures of the policy environment, transportation constraints and opportunities, and a more complete array of indicators of health and social services oriented toward helping elderly persons maintain their independence.     

Tackling Poverty-migration Linkages: Evidence from Ghana and Egypt

Are migrants able to use the migration experience to their benefit, that is to improve their livelihoods, and is this result nuanced by whether migrants are poor or non-poor? This paper explores these questions quantitatively using data on migrants and non-migrants from Ghana and Egypt. It describes the main challenges in the empirical literature and introduces a conceptual model to explore the links between migration and poverty. The empirical model accounts for the direct effects of migration on poverty and for the role of migration in moderating the dynamics of poverty. Results show the selectivity of migration with respect to subjective poverty and that migration can have a significant impact on helping people improve their livelihoods. The paper further finds that selectivity with respect to human capital depends on ‘reasons for migration’ and visa status. These findings enrich existing empirical studies by providing a clear estimation of sequential events and enable policymakers to better understand the processes behind migration and poverty.     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

Economic inequality,status perceptions,and subjective well-being in China's transitional economy

Situated in the dynamic institutional environment of China's transitional economy, this study investigates the intricate relationships among economic inequality, status perceptions, and subjective well-being. Empirical evidence is drawn from national survey data collected from urban China. Statistical analyses show that multiple indicators of economic well-being exert a significant effect on self-perceived social status and status change and on subjective well-being. Positive status perceptions further enhance one's subjective well-being. Some of these effects are also moderated by contextual inequality. This study advances the literature by moving beyond income-based measures to examine the consequences of economic disparity. It also shows that status perceptions are the key nexus to probe the impacts of economic well-being and the sources of life satisfaction. Findings further direct our attention to important interplays between the individual-level socioeconomic conditions and the contextual inequality in achieving a deeper understanding of the consequences of socioeconomic inequality.     

西藏的流动人口与人口流动——基于第五、第六次人口普查数据的比较

文章通过比较第五、第六次人口普查相关数据,对进藏跨省人口流动、西藏区内人口流动和区内向外人口流动情况进行了分析。西藏人口流动的规模虽小但发展速度较快,这得益于国家政策和西藏经济发展的双重驱动。西藏当前的人口流动状况与经济社会发展相适应,形成了良性互动,在人口流动加速的情况下,需要注意跟进流动人口的社会管理与服务,提升西藏本地劳动人口的市场竞争力,鼓励和支持西藏本地人口的跨省流动。     

Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data

According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: given the observed development in mortality and fertility, the population of Myanmar could not have reached 59.8 million in 2010. In addition to encouraging reconsideration of current population estimates, this analysis should also prompt the government and the international community to redouble their efforts in preparing for the 2014 census; carrying out a high‐quality count of the entire population, ideally followed by a post‐enumeration survey; conducting a thorough analysis of the census data; and publicly releasing the census results and accompanying analytical volumes in a timely manner.     

Dual-earner migration. Earnings gains, employment and self-selection

This paper examines how spouses in dual-earner couples weigh each partner’s expected wage growth in the decision to migrate. Previous research suggests that husbands’ job prospects dominate the migration choice irrespective of their relative earnings potential. Based on British panel data, this paper employs an endogenous switching model and estimates wage differentials of migrating vs. staying for husbands and wives corrected for double selectivity of migration and employment. Dual-earner couples attach a positive weight to each partner’s expected wage gains when deciding to migrate. Moreover, migrant wives’ employment decreases temporarily, and there are significant selection effects in migration and employment amongst non-migrants.     

Transnationalism and Development: Mexican and Chinese Immigrant Organizations in the United States

The literature on development in economics and sociology has tended to focus on capital flows, investments, and, more recently, institutions as key causal factors. International migration, when discussed, is relegated to the status of a symptom of underdevelopment and even a factor contributing to it. The more recent literature on migrant remittances has partially reversed this view by documenting large hard currency transfers made by expatriates to their home countries. This changed approach to migration and development does not go far enough because it does not take into account the organized efforts of immigrant communities themselves. Nor does it consider important developmental synergies produced by the rising interactions between immigrant organizations and sending‐country governments. Using data from a recently completed comparative study, we document these processes for two major countries of out‐migration—Mexico and China. The study compiled inventories of migrant organizations from both countries in the United States, interviewed leaders of the major ones, and complemented these data with interviews with officials and community leaders in each sending country. Profiles of these transnational ties were constructed, exemplifying their increasing density and developmental impact at the local and national levels. Theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.